Lini Wollenberg, CCAFS November 10, 2016

Lessons Learned for Climate Smart Livestock and Food Crop Intensification SystemsCOP22 Side event hosted by the Indonesian Agency for

Agricultural Research & Development (IAARD)

2

The challenge of climate change adaptation and mitigation

Is more agricultural intensification enough?

Climate drives 32-39% of yield variation

Our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it

Ray et al. 2015

Synergies (32%) and tradeoffs (62%) of food security and

adaptation with CSA

Mean effect from random sample of 130 studies (55 comparisons)

ProductivityAd

apta

tion

6% 16%

46% 32%SynergiesTradeoffs

Tradeoffs

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Drought tolerant maize can increase yields 20-30% in dry conditions

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Safe Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD)

30% water

20-50% GHG

Without compromising yield

• Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering

• Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16 15.0

8.7

-42%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

t CO

2-eq

/ ha

*sea

son

4.93.9

-20%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

-22%-28%

6.04.7

6.44.6

Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying

Summer-Autumn

Winter-Spring

Sander et al. in press IRRI

AWD Conventional

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Landscapetransitions

Crop transitions

Rice crops

Crops(non rice) Fertilizer Livestock

- 4.7M

Tota

l Ann

ual t

CO2e

Landscape and crop transitions

Management practice improvements

Increased emissions

Reduced emissions/ increased C

sequestration

(1,865,626)

(905,776)

(433,447)(616,320)

(32,068)

(819,848)

435,313

1,723,672

5,802

2.1 M

Agricultural development’s mitigation co-benefits

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Contributions of mitigation scenarios compared to the 2°C mitigation goal for agriculture

Series1

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

0.21

0.40

0.92

1.19

1.23

Mitigation (GtCO2e/yr)

RCP2.6 (IMAGE) (2)

GCAM2.6 (3)

MESSAGE2.5 (4)

Technical practices USD20/t (8)

GLOBIOM USD20/t (9)

1 GtCO2e/yr mitigation target to

stay within 2° C

Goal

9

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See https://sites.google.com/a/irri.org/ccac/home

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The transition to CSA will require major shifts

• Agricultural intensification and productivity is not enough• trade-offs with adaptation (>half of time)• mitigation co-benefits are substantial, but not enough to

meet the 2 °C target• Need more practices with joint adaptation-productivity

outcomes• And need more transformative mitigation practices (2.5-5x)• Finance, capacity enhancement and technology transfer are

needed, but so is technology development for CSA