quick water: update on the water related indicators for sustainable crop-livestock intensification...

Quick Water: Update on the water related indicators for sustainable crop-livestock intensification planning

in Ethiopia ‘early win’ project

Charlotte MacAlister (IWMI)

Africa Rising Quick Water Early Win Project

Final Workshop, Addis Ababa, 14 September 2012

• Introduction to Africa Rising

• Introduction to Quick Water approach: scope and objectives

• Methodology for development of intensification trajectories in Ethiopia

• Ethiopian context: development and intensification planning and policy background from food for work/MERIT to FEWsnet

• Selection of trajectories and indicators for Ethiopia

• Roundtable discussion and feedback

• Mapping trajectories-indicators and development of toolbox

• Demonstration of tool

• Roundtable testing of toolbox

• Feedback and future development

Management Structure

Program Coordination Team (IITA, ILRI, IFPRI, USAID)

E&SA Project Steering Committee (IITA)

Ethiopian Highlands Project Steering Committee (ILRI)

Program Research Framework Task Force

West Africa Project Steering Committee

(IITA)

Information/data Systems Team (IFPRI)

Communications Team (ILRI, USAID)

FY2012 Activities

1. Program design 2. Quick Win projects

Provide pathways out of hunger and poverty for small holder families,

particularly for women and children, through sustainably intensified farming

systems that sufficiently improve food, nutrition, and income security and

conserve or enhance the natural resource base.

• Identify demand-driven sustainable intensification options that are socially

acceptable, economically feasible, and environmentally sound

• Combine and adapt these options to address constraints and exploit

opportunities.

• Evaluate their effectiveness at multiple scales.

• Catalyze ongoing sustainable farm intensification.

Program Purpose and Objectives

Africa RISING

• Whole farm productivity

• Natural resource management

• Connect to markets & input suppliers

• Nutrition and poverty, especially women and

children

• Economic & environmental resilience

Program Outcomes

Africa RISING

• Increase above- and below-ground biomass to improve soil

health & system productivity (e.g., fertilizer trees, legumes, N/P

fertilization)

• Diversification (crop & enterprise) for greater resilience,

productivity, and nutrition

• Integrating livestock and mechanization into conservation

agriculture

• Improve water productivity to reduce risk & enhance investment

Beyond tradeoffs?

Africa RISING

• Improving the evidence for targeting agricultural management interventions

in Ethiopia

• Targeting research design for technology integration at farm scale

• Sustainable tree-crop-livestock intensification as a pillar for the Ethiopian

climate resilient green economy

• Regionalizing fertilizer rate recommendation for wheat-teff production

systems

• Fodder and feed as a key opportunity for driving sustainable intensification of

crop-livestock systems

• Improving productivity and rural livelihoods of smallholder farmers in the

Bale highlands by integrating pulses in crop-livestock production systems

Quick Wins in the Ethiopian Highlands:

Africa RISING

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Malawi Ethiopia Nigeria Uganda Mali Mozambique

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Average national yield Average yield from on-farm demonstration

Why Agricultural Intensification in Ethiopia?

Objective: to provide a tool which can be used to support the spatial targeting of agricultural intensification practices to areas where the biophysical and livelihood conditions are likely to sustain long term development. Water is the entry point. Project scope and limitations: proof of concept/demonstration of what is possible; short term project with limited time/resources Team: Economist/policy – Gebre; Crop specialist – Teklu; Livestock – Amare; Water – Charlotte; Spatial – Catherine/Yenenesh/An/Abisalom Process: identification of trajectories and indicators; consultation with line agencies at regional level– feedback on both Development of simple tool which produces national maps of selected trajectories and targets

• Do agricultural intensification initiatives account for water

centered issues?

• Is there consistency across different initiatives / policies

locally and nationally?

• Are the indicators for agricultural intensification planning

strategies based on local and global experience?

• Are ongoing intensification efforts embedded in the

livelihood of local communities?

Some key challenges to making intensification sustainable:

Identifying Development Trajectories for Ethiopia:

Principles

Identifying Development Trajectories for Ethiopia: Process

Approaches Key indicators Comments

Land capability

assessment

Soil, landscape, land use/land cover, hydrology,

climate

Lacks social & environmental

dimensions

Agro-ecological

zones

Mainly climatic parameters & associated

agricultural practices

Land suitability

analysis

Land cover, climate, soil, topography, land uses,

distance to village, streams & springs, cost-benefit

analysis

Target certain use types

Land suitability

& livelihood

zoning

Based on geography, production & markets, i.e.

includes livelihood assets & land suitability

Includes some social dimensions

Vulnerability &

resilience to

climate change

Indicators related to exposure, sensitivity &

adaptive capacity

Similar to land suitability &

livelihood but incorporates global

CC phenomena

Development

domains

Agricultural potential, access to markets,

population density

Includes socio-economic

indicators; Targeting broad,

generic development strategies

Global Development of Land Use Planning

Introduction:

• The history of planned agricultural development in Ethiopia goes back to the late 19th century with the introduction of agricultural innovation systems of better farming practices and new tree species.

• Since then, agricultural modernization undergone several stages with some disruptions (such as the Italian occupation).

• During the 1960s, the modernization process was mainly based on elites’ (landlord) commercial farms followed by the command economy that discouraged private investment during the 1970s and 1980s.

• Following the change of government in 1991, most strategies focused on the balance between poverty reduction, economic development and equity.

• As stipulated in the PASDEP, the agricultural development strategy revolves around the intensification of marketable farm products.

• In line with the development strategies, different programs and projects have been initiated which some of them are reviewed as follows.

MERET: Land Regeneration In Ethiopia

• Response to the drought and famine of 1973/74 in the northern part of the country.

• Gradually shifted to development program with the objective of linking short-term food assistance with long-term development opportunities and sustainable livelihoods.

• Supports more than 50 activities and technical packages implemented in chronically food-insecure areas

• Participants are from food-insecure households.

• The project provides opportunities through long-term food security measures, but is limited to a specified range of livelihood systems.

Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty - PASDEP (1)

Main objectives of PASDEP:

• Accelerate the transformation of the subsistence smallholder agriculture.

• Increased productivity and share of marketed production.

• Support to pro-poor basic agriculture within the framework of the national food security program.

• Smallholder capacity building through training, development and adoption of a high yielding technology.

PASDEP (2)

• Strengthened agricultural research and extension service delivery mechanisms

• Promotion of increased diversification of agriculture through high value added commodities

• Promotion of commercialization of agriculture and establishment of a marketing system

• Development of small-scale irrigation and water harvesting technologies and sustainable use/management of natural resources.

PASDEP (3)

Recognized three main agro-ecological zones based on rainfall, land type and altitude to respond to the particular conditions:

Zone 1: High rainfall areas

• Efficient utilization of available rainwater for improved agricultural production with a special emphasis on high value crops for export.

• Natural resources conservation, agro-forestry and livestock development.

Zone 2: Moisture stress areas

• Food security measures and increased off-farm income opportunities. • Soil and water conservation livestock resources development (small

ruminants) and small-scale irrigation.

Zone 3: Pastoral areas

• Livestock production and marketing was given importance.

Agricultural Growth Program (AGP)

• Food security and poverty reduction remains at the heart of agriculture and water resources development.

• Gradual shift to high-value crops, promoting niche high-value export crops.

• Facilitates the commercialization of agriculture where it is feasible .

• Integrates farmers with both local and global markets.

• Although AGP uses relatively comprehensive indicators (both bio-physical and socio-economic), focus is given to selected high-potential areas.

Sustainable Land Management (SLM)

• Parallel to the AGP, the Sustainable Land Management (SLM) program was crafted to ensure sustainability of the natural resource base focusing on the high potential less degraded areas.

• Unlike the MERET project that operates in degraded and food insecure areas, SLM targets the food secured and less degraded areas, but food security is still the major objective

Growth Corridors

Regional focus, based largely on resource endowment.

For example:

• Tigray Region has delineated the Raya Valley-Humera lowland growth corridors based on their ground and surface water potentials.

• Oromia regional state acknowledge that the lowland parts of the region are vulnerable to recurrent droughts but supposed to have sufficient surface/ground water and good development potential .

• Amhara followed different approach to classify the region into six growth corridors/poles (namely Central, Eastern, North-West, South-West, Tana-Beles and Tekeze catchments) .

• In general the growth corridor approach was based on water and water based investment potentials.

AgWater Solutions Project

• Water as the entry point.

• Addresses pro-poor needs rather than on the development of potentially suitable areas/resources.

• Different people in different places have different needs.

• Demand for investment in water likened to availability of water and needs.

• Livelihood mapping was essentially based on three criteria, hence it is likely to reach at different livelihood settings if other criteria are considered.

Gap Analysis (1)

The gap analysis is based on the following principles:

• Whether agricultural intensification initiatives in Ethiopia are planned with the perception of water centered problems and sustainable intensification trajectories

• Whether there is consistencies across different initiatives in terms of indicators used to plan and monitor the intensification process and paths to make the exchange of information between projects simpler

• Whether these indicators for agricultural intensification planning and post implementation monitoring are drawn based on global experiences

• Whether the ongoing efforts of intensification embedded the livelihood of local community into agricultural intensification process.

Gap Analysis (2)

• Almost all programs and projects have targeted agricultural production and poverty reduction.

• Water as entry point has been given due emphasis in all projects/programs

• They lack consistency in terms of livelihood systems.

• PASDEP: indicators used to characterize livelihood zones were mainly bio-physical characteristics with little consideration to socio-economic characteristics.

• PASDEP and Agwater solution project were more comprehensive to address all production/livelihood systems

• Livestock as livelihood system did not come bold except in PASDEP

Gap Analysis (3)

In terms of trajectories:

• MERET project targets degraded and chronically food insecure areas where soil and water conservation is the main intervention.

• AGP aims to transform the agricultural sector from subsistance to surplus production.

• AGP overlooks the individual potential of different areas given a limited investment capacity implying that priority must be given to high return investments.

• Unlike MERET, SLM targets less fragile areas.

• AgWater Solutions project identified different trajectories based on which of the 17 livelihood systems were suggested.

Description of the selected trajectories and key indicators: 1-4

Trajectories Description Some key indicators

Integrated Natural Resources Conservation based crop- livestock systems intensification

Soil erosion and nutrient depletion is the major focus Crop, livestock and trees are system components with a number of sub trajectories

Soil erosion rate and extent of area affected Human and livestock population

Small-Scale Irrigation Based Crop-Livestock Intensification

Highly populated area with access to surface or ground water for irrigation with access to market

Potential suitable areas Market access

Large-Scale Irrigation Based Crop-Livestock Intensification

Areas with large irrigable land (>3000 hectares), with high value commercial or industrial crops, where crops and livestock are major components

Potential suitable areas Market access and roads

Agro-Pastoral Rainfed Based Crop-Livestock Intensification

Receives sufficient rainfall, soil is relatively deep and fertile, crop, livestock and trees are major components

Amount of rainfall, human and livestock population, land use land cover

Trajectories Description Some key indicators

Pastoral Livestock Based Intensification

Livestock are the major components where feed, water, veterinary services and market are major issues

Aridity index, LGP, availability of surface water Human and livestock population

Peri-Urban Dairy Based Crop-Livestock Intensification

Dairy, fattening and vegetable farming on small plots are the major components; poultry may also be integrated

Access to market

Vertisol Management Based Intensification

Water logged vertisol areas receiving high rainfall, especially where temperature is mild to induce high evaporation. Crop and livestock are both major components.

Area covered by vertisols and annual precipitation

Rainfed commercial farming intensification in crop-livestock systems

Extensive arable land sparsely populated and receiving sufficient rainfall, where commercial/high value and industrial crops are suitable

Rainfall, human population density, and land use land cover (protected areas)

Description of the selected trajectories and key indicators: 5-8

Trajectory Indicator / proxy Simplified reason for selection

Soil & water conservation

in crop livestock systems

erosion rate Major process of land degradation

population density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand

livestock density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand

Small-medium scale

irrigation in crop livestock

systems

irrigable area OR Area suitable for irrigation (potential for small/ medium)

presence of shallow ground water (15-20m) Based on geological data

protected forest area Avoid protected forest areas

access to market Necessary for sale of cash crop and access to inputs

Rainfed smallholder

intensification in crop-

livestock systems or agro-

pastoralist systems

minimum annual rainfall Sufficient rainfall present

maximum annual rainfall Sufficient rainfall present



Large scale irrigation

potential large scale irrigation Area suitable for large scale irrigation (>3000ha)

all-weather roads Necessary for sale of cash crop and access to inputs

Livestock based

intensification

minimum aridity index Not suitable for crop

maximum aridity index Not suitable for crop


livestock density Driver of land use pressure / competition; resource demand

Difference: current & potential capacity Difference between current stocking rate and potential capacity

Peri-urban dairy

access to market OR Necessary for sale of milk

Addis neighbourhood Largest milk market potential

Vertisol management Vertisol / soil map Vertisol area present

minimum annual rainfall Amount of rainfall above which waterlogging occurs

Rainfed commercial

farming intensification in

crop-livestock /agro-

pastoralist systems

minimum annual rainfall Sufficient rainfall present

maximum annual rainfall Sufficient rainfall present



Description and reason for selection of indicators / proxies

Background to the tool – how trajectories and indicators can be

turned into maps

Transforming indicators into maps

For each indicator spatial data (geographical layer) is identified

1 indicator = 1 map

=> Mapping tool box

Mapping toolbox

Combines indicator maps into trajectories

Livelihood scale – Units of observation are livelihood zones

– Links trajectories to livelihoods

– FEWSNET livelihood zone map (180 zones):

Areas within which households (on average) share similar livelihood patterns

i.e. they have access to the same set of food and cash income sources and to the same markets

Trajectories

The mapping toolbox

Arc GIS

Indicator 1 (I1) Indicator 2 (I2) Indicator 3 (I3)

Excel sheet I1zj> x1 I2zj> x2 I3zj> x3

Suitable livelihood zone for a given intensification trajectory

Spatial processing 1. Aggregates indicator maps to livelihood maps (by zonal statistic) 2. Selects livelihood zones where all of conditions of the indicators are met

Live demonstration of tool

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