Urbanization Urbanization and and

Political EvolutionPolitical Evolutionof the World Systemof the World System

©©Leonid GrininLeonid Grininprepared on the basis of our prepared on the basis of our collaborativecollaborative publications with publications with AndreyAndrey KorotayevKorotayev

The Political Economy of WorldThe Political Economy of World--SystemSystem ConfConferenceerence. . AprilApril 20102010. New . New PaltzPaltz

httphttp://://www.socionauki.ruwww.socionauki.ru//authorsauthors//grinin_l_egrinin_l_e//

•On  the whole urbanization and political development  of  the  World  System  are tightly connected with each other.

• The “urban” way of state  formation was one of the most important.

•Mutual  influence  of  urbanization  and statehood  factors  was  very  strong  during the last five thousands years. 

Introductory remarksIntroductory remarks

The main goals of the paperThe main goals of the paper

• to show the stages of both the political and  urban  development  of  the  World System since the 4th millennium BCE

• to demonstrate the correlation between the dynamics of  the size of  the  territory controlled by states and the dynamics of the world urban population

However,  I  do  not  include  in  my analysis  the  type  of  early  (or  archaic) state.  In  this  presentation  I  onlydiscuss  two evolutionary  types  of states,  namely:  developed  states  and mature states.

What do I mean?

NoteNote

• bureaucratic pre‐industrial states;

Starting with Claessen and Skalnik, two main stages of the evolutionary sequence of statehood are usually identified as following:

EARLY STATES  EARLY STATES  ‐‐ MATURE STATESMATURE STATES

However,  this  scheme poorly describes  the evolution of  the statehood, because  it  is quiet evident  there are three levels of statehood:

• weakly  centralized  early  states  based  on  the ruler’s clan; 

• nation‐states of the industrial epoch.

That is the reason why I have suggested a new scheme. 

I propose the following sequence of the evolution of statehood:

THE EARLY STATES THE EARLY STATES

THE DEVELOPED STATESTHE DEVELOPED STATES

THE MATURE STATESTHE MATURE STATES

THE MATURE STATESTHE MATURE STATES are the states of the industrial  epoch,  in  which  representative democracy  has  proliferated,  estates  have disappeared  and  the  industrial  classes  have formed.

EARLY STATESEARLY STATES are  not  sufficiently centralized  states  with  underdeveloped administrative‐political and social structures. 

DEVELOPED STATESDEVELOPED STATES are    the  centralized states  of  Late Antiquity,  the Middle Ages,  and the  Early  Modern  period  that  politically organized  societies  with  distinct  estate‐class stratification.

The  first  developed states  appeared  in the  late  3rd ‐ the  first  half  of  the  2ndmillennia BCE. 

The  first mature states  only appeared  in the Modern Era in the late 17th century in Europe.

They were the Third Dynasty of Ur state, the kingdom of Hammurabi in Mesopotamia, Middle and New Kingdom Egypt.

Thus, in the Antiquity and Middle Ages there were  no mature  states,  but  only early and developed ones.

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Periods (each period's duration is 500 years)

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Diagram 1. Growth of the Number of Developed StatesGrowth of the Number of Developed States

Diagram 2. Dynamics of the Mature States' Number Dynamics of the Mature States' Number (1500(1500––1900 CE)1900 CE)

Diagram 3. Dynamics of the World Urban Population Dynamics of the World Urban Population (in mln)(in mln), for cities with >10000 inhabitants, for cities with >10000 inhabitants(5000(5000 BCEBCE –– 1990 CE ), 1990 CE ), logarithmic scalelogarithmic scale

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The first phase transitionThe first phase transition dates to the late 4th and early 3rd millennia BCE.

After more than thousand years of fluctuation around the respective attractor the second phase transitionthe second phase transitionbegan in the early 1st millennium BCE.

After a long period of stagnation and fluctuation of the level of the World System urban population in the Middle Ages we can observe the next very significant acceleration of the world urban population growth in the Modern Era (the third phase transition)(the third phase transition).

Three main phase transitionsand two main attractors

Diagram 4. Dynamics of Territory Controlled by Dynamics of Territory Controlled by thethe Developed and Mature States Developed and Mature States (millions (millions kmkm22)), till 1950, till 1950

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The first phase transitionThe first phase transition of growth of the territory controlled by DEVELOPEDDEVELOPED states took place in 2000–1600 BCE when the first developed states appeared.

The second phase transitionThe second phase transition took place in the late 1st millennium BCE.

AA new qualitative breakthroughnew qualitative breakthrough can be dated to the mid 15th century.

Phase transitions

During this period the growth of the territory of developed states continues in the growth of the territory controlled by the mature states. So the curve becomes steeper. • The first attractor of the Diagram we see between about 1500 and 500 BCE. • The second one is between about 100 BCE and 1300 CE.

Transitions and attractors

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urbanpopulation

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Diagram 5. Dynamics of World Urban Population Dynamics of World Urban Population (thousands)(thousands) and the Size of the Territory Controlled by the and the Size of the Territory Controlled by the Developed and Mature States Developed and Mature States (thousands km(thousands km22)), till 1900 CE , till 1900 CE (logarithmic scale)(logarithmic scale)

• The first phase of rapid growth of the world urban population was connected with the development of EARLYEARLY states. • Then we see the growth of the number of developed states correlated with the radical growth of the World System urban population observed within precisely the same period. • The formation of the first DEVELOPEDDEVELOPED states affected the World System urban population dynamics in a rather significant way.

Urbanization and development of statehood

• A new phase of the radical growth of urban population as well as the growth of size of the territory controlled by the DEVELOPED states is observed in the 1st millennium BCE. • In the Modern Era we can see the next very significant acceleration both of urban population and of the size of the territory controlled by the DEVELOPED and especially by MATURE states appeared.

Urbanization and development of statehood

Diagram 6. Dynamics of World Urban Population Dynamics of World Urban Population (thousands)(thousands) and the Size of the Territory Controlled and the Size of the Territory Controlled byby the Developed and Mature States the Developed and Mature States (thousands km(thousands km22)), , 1000 BCE1000 BCE –– 1900 CE1900 CE

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U rba n P o pula tion

Te rr i tor y of deve lope dan d m a tu re s t at es

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Diagram 5. Dynamics of World Urban Population Dynamics of World Urban Population (thousands)(thousands) and the Size of the Territory Controlled by the and the Size of the Territory Controlled by the Developed and Mature States Developed and Mature States (thousands km(thousands km22)), till 1900 CE , till 1900 CE (logarithmic scale)(logarithmic scale)

• then a new phase transition came.

In general, we find in the Diagram the same system of attractors and phase transitions:

• a major phase transition in the 1st millennium BCE;

• then there is a period of more than 1000 years long, when both indexes fluctuated within certain attractor till the Modern Era;

Urbanization and development of statehood

Thus during the phase transition of the 1st

millennium BCE the surge in the size of territory controlled by the developed states lagged behind the phase transition in the dynamics of the World System urbanization.

Time lag in the 1st millennium BCE

However in spite of all the synchrony, there are a few important time lags.

• whereas it took the new technologies a considerable period of time to diffuse throughout the World System.

This lag can be interpreted as evidence for the following fact:

• in the 2nd - the first half of the 1st millennia BCE the potential of economic and military-technological basis for the formation of new developed states without iron metallurgy and other new technologies turned out to have been entirely exhausted,

Time lag in the 1st millennium BCE

On the contrary during the phase transition of the Early Modern period, the rapid increase in the size of the territory controlled by developed and mature states had begun first.

Only two centuries later there started an equally rapid and impetuous growth in the world's urban population. This pattern of increase in territory and urban population becomes especially clear if we consider the dynamics of these variables within the 2nd millennium CE.

Time lag in the Early Modern period

Diagram 7. Dynamics of the World Urban Population Dynamics of the World Urban Population (thousands)(thousands) and the Size of the Territory Controlled by and the Size of the Territory Controlled by the Developed and Mature States the Developed and Mature States (thousands km(thousands km22)), , 900900––19001900 CECE

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U rba n P o pula tion

Te rr i tor y of deve lope dan d ma tu re s t at es

• Besides, the impetuous growth of this territory in the 16th – 18th centuries was tightly connected with the formation and vigorous territorial expansion of some developed states (e.g.Mughal India, Russia, the Ottoman Empire).

This lag needs special comments.

• First of all, the developed states of that period were predominantly agrarian.

Time lag in the Early Modern period

However, such an expansion frequently involves underpopulated and totally unurbanized territories (e.g., with the Russian expansion into Siberia).

At the same time in the developed states an important role was played by large cities, and especially capitals whose population could be very large for agrarian societies.

So the tight interconnectedness of the dynamics of developed statehood and the urbanization of the World System looks especially salient if we consider the population dynamics of megacities (that is, cities with more than 200 thousand inhabitants each).

Urbanization and Urbanization and development of statehooddevelopment of statehood

This synchronicity is not coincidental at all. The point is that the pre-industrial megacities were, to a considerable degree, a creation of the developed statehood.

Diagram 8. Dynamics of the World Megacities' Dynamics of the World Megacities' Population Population (hundreds)(hundreds) and the Territory of the and the Territory of the Developed and Mature States Developed and Mature States (thousands km(thousands km22)), , till 1900till 1900 CECE

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W o rld m eg ac it ies 'p opu lat io nT er ri to ry o f de velop eda nd m at ur e s ta te s

During the 16During the 16thth––1818thth centuriescenturies DEVELOPED STATES could not secure such an urban growth that would match the extent of their territorial expansion. As its formation and proliferation took a considerable period of time, urbanization was bound to lag behind the territorial growth of the developed states.

The further development of the World System is directly connected with the industrial breakthrough of the 1818thth--1919thth centuries.centuries. The transition to industrial production led to the formation of a new evolutionary type of state: THE MATURE STATE. By the 19th century it had become dominant in Europe and the New World.

Urbanization and Urbanization and development of statehooddevelopment of statehood

During the industrial epochthe industrial epoch the economy developed mostly within cities. That is why growth of the territory controlled by the MATURE STATES was indissolubly connected with the growth of cities, and a radical growth of the degree of urbanization.

Such development led to a vigorous increase in world urbanization that against the background of the hyperbolic growth of the world population led to:

• explosive, quadratic-hyperbolic growth of the world urban population;

• explosive growth in the number of megacities and their sizes.

Urbanization and Urbanization and development of statehooddevelopment of statehood

Diagram 9. Dynamics of World Megaurbanization Dynamics of World Megaurbanization (proportion of megacities' population in the total population of(proportion of megacities' population in the total population of the the world, world, ‰‰)) and the Territory Controlled by Developed / and the Territory Controlled by Developed / Mature States Mature States (ml(mlnn kmkm22)), till 1950, till 1950

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Thank you for attention!Thank you for attention!