lehman brothers ceo energy/power conference september 6, 2007
DESCRIPTION
Lehman Brothers CEO Energy/Power Conference September 6, 2007. Energy / Growth / Leadership. Safe Harbor Provisions. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Safe Harbor Provisions
This presentation contains statements concerning NU’s expectations, plans, objectives, future financial performance and other statements that are not historical facts. These statements are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In some cases, a listener can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as “estimate”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, “forecast”, “should”, “could”, and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those included in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, actions or inactions by local, state and federal regulatory bodies; competition and industry restructuring; changes in economic conditions; changes in weather patterns; changes in laws, regulations or regulatory policy; changes in levels or timing of capital expenditures; developments in legal or public policy doctrines; technological developments; changes in accounting standards and financial reporting regulations; fluctuations in the value of our remaining competitive electricity positions; actions of rating agencies; subsequent recognition, derecognition and measurement of tax positions; and other presently unknown or unforeseen factors. Other risk factors are detailed from time to time in our reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any forward looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and we undertake no obligation to update the information contained in any forward-looking statements to reflect developments or circumstances occurring after the statement is made.
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A Successful First 8 Months of 2007 In Meeting Our Short-Term And Long-Term Goals
Short Term
23% increase in Y-T-D regulated earnings, consistent with guidance
Rate settlements implemented at 3 of 4 utilities
LNG facility placed in service on budget, on schedule
Transmission projects on budget, on or ahead of schedule
CL&P rate case filed
Competitive business divestitures largely complete
Longer Term
Rate base growth expectations intact
Design of next generation of transmission projects advancing
Connecticut legislation offers new opportunities for customers, utilities
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$62.7
$25.4
-$76.9
$12.1
$71.6
$37.0
$7.6 $7.4
$123.6
$0.9
($100.0)
($80.0)
($60.0)
($40.0)
($20.0)
$0.0
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
$140.0
1H 2006
1H 2007
2007 Results
Distribution and Regulated Generation
Transmission Parent/Other
In M
illio
ns
Competitive Total
14.2%
45.7%
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$29.8
$15.4
$11.7
$27.6
$20.7
$9.4
$13.9
$5.8
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
$35.0
1H 2006
1H 2007
Distribution/Regulated Generation Results
CL&P PSNH WMECO
In M
illio
ns
Yankee Gas
7.4%
34.4%
62.1%
18.8%
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Transmission Earnings Tracking Rate Base Investment
$140.7
$167.5
$216.0
$141.8
$37.0
$59.8
$41.1
$28.2
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
2004 2005 2006 2007
$0.0
$10.0
$20.0
$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
Revenues Net Income
Rev
en
ues
in M
illio
ns N
et Inco
me
in M
illions
Six Months
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EPS Guidance
2006 Actual Regulated/Parent $1.16
2007 Guidance $1.30 – $1.55
2006 – 201110% - 14% CAGR with higher growth in 2007 and 2008
Dist./Gen: $0.80-$0.90
Trans.: $0.50-$0.60
Competitive: modestly profitable
Parent: $0.00-$0.05
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Rate Settlements in Place for 3 of 4 Distribution Companies
Company Rate Increase ROE Other
PSNH $46.6M on 7/1/07 in addition to $24.5M increase on 7/1/06
6.4% in 2006
9-10% projected in 2007, 2008
Transmission tracker accepted
Reliability funding
WMECO $1 M (D) – 1/1/07
$3 M (D) – 1/1/08
9.6% in 2006
9-10% projected in 2007, 2008
New trackers for pension, post- retirement benefits and certain uncollectibles and capital investment
Yankee Gas $22.1M net on 7/1/07 after $30M+ of commodity savings
5.9% in 2006
9-10% projected for 7/1/07 – 6/30/08
$108M LNG facility in Waterbury, CT, complete and reflected in rates
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CL&P Distribution Rate Case
10/1-10/4/07
10/9-11/9/07
12/27/07
Case Filed
ConsumerCounsel
TestimonyDue
PublicHearings
EvidentiaryHearings
DecisionScheduled
Case Timeline Two annual increases requested
$189 million 1/1/08
$22 million 1/1/09
11% requested ROE
Expected 2007 ROE 7% – 7.5%
Projected average common equity in 2008 CL&P distribution company = $1 billion
Capitalization 45% equity/55% debt (rating agency methodology)
7/30/07 9/21/07
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Reliability And Increased Costs Key Topic in CL&P Case
Need to address aging infrastructure as equipment costs have risen
$290 million in distribution cap ex annually
Pole top transformer costs are up 62% since 2003
Overhead wire cost up 80% Underground cable costs up
53% Substation transformers up
105% Tree trimming costs up 80%
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Four Major Southwest Connecticut Projects – A $1.65 Billion Investment
More Than Half Complete
50% of CT Load
Bethel-Norwalk 345-kV underground& overhead$350 Million
21 miles 345-kV (56% underground)
10 miles 115-kV (100% underground)
Completed October 2006 at a cost of $340 million Middletown-Norwalk 345-kV
underground & overhead$1,047 Million (NU share)Glenbrook Cables
115-kV underground$183 Million
9 miles 115-kV underground
Projected in-service date: 2008
Under contract – construction under way, 36% complete at 6/30/07
Long Island Cable138-kV cross-sound$72 Million (NU share)
11 miles 138-kV submarine cable
Joint project with LIPA
Projected in-service date: 2008
41% complete at 6/30/07
69 miles 345-kV (35% underground)
57 miles 115-kV (1% underground)
Joint project with United Illuminating
Projected in-service date: 2009
38% complete at 6/30/07
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
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Bethel-Norwalk Line Expected To Help Reduce Connecticut
Congestion Costs By $100 Million in 2007
Norwalk-Stamford Area Representative Avg Peak Hours Congestion Comparison
2006 vs 2007
0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160170180190200210220230240250
06/18/07
06/20/07
06/22/07
06/26/07
06/28/07
07/02/07
07/06/07
07/10/07
07/12/07
07/16/07
07/18/07
07/20/07
07/24/07
07/26/07
07/30/07
08/01/07
08/03/07
08/07/07
08/09/07
08/13/07
08/15/07
08/17/07
Avg
$/M
Wh
Co
ng
esti
on
(N
orw
alk
Hrb
r 1
no
de
- M
ass
Hu
b)
2006 Average 2007 Average
2007 Avg. = $11/MWh
2006 Avg. = $103/MWh
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2007-2011 Projected Capital Expenditures
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
Distribution Capex
Transmission Capex
2006 Actual 2007 2010 20112008 2009
$908*
$779*$874*
$1,265*
$1,126*
$880*
*Excludes approximately $18 million per year at corporate service companies
In M
illio
ns
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The Next Five Years: Transmission Capital Expenditures
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Other
NEEWS
Major Southwest CT
Historic Forecast
In M
illio
ns
Up To $2.5 Billion $1,062 Million
$1.1 Billion of major SW CT projects in
2007-2011 forecast period; $1.65 billion
in total
NEEWS, Springfield projects estimated at $710 million during the
2007-2011 forecast period
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Chicopee
LudlowHolyoke
WestSpringfield
Springfield
Agawam
9090
9191
9090
9191
Major Substation Upgrade
Overhead Line(Rebuild/Reconductor)
Underground(New/Reconductor)
Substation
Springfield 115-kV Projects
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Springfield-115 Projects
SPRINGFIELD
HARTFORD
345-kV Substation
Generation Station
345-kV ROW
115-kV ROW
Greater SpringfieldReliability Project
Central ConnecticutReliability Project
InterstateReliability Project
The NEEWS Family of Projects Contains Four Main Elements
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Projected Transmission Year-End Rate Base
$840
$2,117 $2,218$2,461
$140
$175
$276
$282$335
$325
$75
$80
$132
$173$208
$239
$1,512$1,173
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
CL&P PSNH WMECO
Transmission Rate Base2006-2011
CAGR of 23%
In M
illio
ns
*Reflects FERC approved 50% CWIP for southwest CT projects
* **
$1.1B
$1.4B
$1.9B
$2.6B$2.8B
$3.0B
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Connecticut Legislation
2007: “An Act Concerning Electricity and Energy Efficiency” was signed by Governor Rell June 4 Generation provisions
Requires distribution companies to file plans in January 2008 to build cost of service peaking generation
Requires DPUC to allow distribution companies to buy generation put up for sale, if in the public interest
For future identified generation needs, distribution companies can submit proposals to compete with IPP developers and will serve as builders of last resort
Ratemaking Requires DPUC to decouple electric and natural gas distribution revenues from
sales volumes
Planning and incentives Institutes long-term integrated energy planning for state through utility filings with
Energy Advisory Board and DPUC Maintains one-time utility incentives created in 2005 “Energy Independence Act”
• $200/kw to host utility for customer-side generation
• $25/kw to utilities for traditional generation
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PSNH Opportunities
Recently
• Successful conversion of 50-MW Schiller unit from coal to wood in December 2006
• $74 million cost
• Enhances fuel diversity, reduces sulfur, NOx, mercury emissions
Under Way
• Legislation to install wet scrubber at Merrimack approved in spring 2006
• Projected completion: Mid-2013
• Estimated cost: $250 million
Future Possibilities
• Connect northern New Hampshire renewables to power grid
• Additional biomass opportunities
Schiller
Merrimack
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Ability To Finance Growth
$3,307
$116
$2,823
Total Debt Preferred Stock Common Equity
6/30/07
Strong balance sheet
Strong cash and liquidity position
Strong access to capital
Approximately $400 million of NU parent cash
Nearly $1 billion unused bank, accounts receivable lines
Solid credit ratings at parent, subsidiaries
Successful debt financings
Minimal equity requirements
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NU’s Transformation Producing Solid Results, Prospects
Financial performance consistent with projections Transmission business is growing rapidly to meet customer
needs Distribution results improving as reasonable rate case outcomes
are implemented Additional infrastructure needs being identified Financial flexibility to finance the growth Attractive total shareholder return profile