Lecture 23: The Lecture 23: The Post-Cold War Post-Cold War

World EndsWorld EndsMarch 2, 2009March 2, 2009

A New Approach to Foreign A New Approach to Foreign PolicyPolicy

Realism—the old wayRealism—the old way Deal with the world as it isDeal with the world as it is States seek securityStates seek security Domestic character of states not importantDomestic character of states not important Cautious in use of militaryCautious in use of military International institutions can be effectiveInternational institutions can be effective

NeoconservatismNeoconservatism Morality should drive foreign policyMorality should drive foreign policy Internal character of states drives behaviorInternal character of states drives behavior Use military proactivelyUse military proactively United States as “benevolent hegemon”United States as “benevolent hegemon” Distrust of international institutionsDistrust of international institutions

Defense Planning Defense Planning Guidance, 1992Guidance, 1992

““The U.S must show the leadership The U.S must show the leadership necessary to establish and protect a new necessary to establish and protect a new order that holds the promise of order that holds the promise of convincing potential competitors that convincing potential competitors that they need not aspire to a greater role or they need not aspire to a greater role or pursue a more aggressive posture to pursue a more aggressive posture to protect their legitimate interests…we protect their legitimate interests…we must maintain the mechanisms for must maintain the mechanisms for deterring potential competitors from deterring potential competitors from even aspiring to a larger regional or even aspiring to a larger regional or global role."global role."

US interests threatened by…US interests threatened by… ““access to vital raw materials, primarily access to vital raw materials, primarily

Persian Gulf oil; proliferation of weapons of Persian Gulf oil; proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, mass destruction and ballistic missiles, threats to U.S. citizens from terrorism or threats to U.S. citizens from terrorism or regional or local conflict, and threats to regional or local conflict, and threats to U.S. society from narcotics trafficking.”U.S. society from narcotics trafficking.”

Coalitions “hold considerable promise for Coalitions “hold considerable promise for promoting collective action…” but “we promoting collective action…” but “we should expect future coalitions to be ad hoc should expect future coalitions to be ad hoc assemblies, often not lasting beyond the assemblies, often not lasting beyond the crisis being confronted, and in many cases crisis being confronted, and in many cases carrying only general agreement over the carrying only general agreement over the objectives to be accomplished…the United objectives to be accomplished…the United States should be postured to act States should be postured to act independently when collective action independently when collective action cannot be orchestrated” cannot be orchestrated”

PNAC Statement of PNAC Statement of Principles, 1997Principles, 1997

"We seem to have forgotten the essential "We seem to have forgotten the essential elements of the Reagan administration's elements of the Reagan administration's success: a military that is strong and ready success: a military that is strong and ready to meet both present and future challenges; to meet both present and future challenges; a foreign policy that boldly and purposefully a foreign policy that boldly and purposefully promotes American principles abroad; and promotes American principles abroad; and national leadership that accepts the U.S. national leadership that accepts the U.S. global responsibilities." global responsibilities."

““the history of the 20th century should have the history of the 20th century should have taught us that it is important to shape taught us that it is important to shape circumstances before crises emerge, and to circumstances before crises emerge, and to meet threats before they become dire.” meet threats before they become dire.”

Signatories to the PNACSignatories to the PNAC Dick Cheney Dick Cheney Donald RumsfeldDonald Rumsfeld I. Lewis LibbyI. Lewis Libby Paul WolfowitzPaul Wolfowitz Zalmay KhalilzadZalmay Khalilzad Jeb Bush Jeb Bush Dan QuayleDan Quayle Francis FukuyamaFrancis Fukuyama Gary Bauer Gary Bauer Richard PerleRichard Perle William Kristol William Kristol John BoltonJohn Bolton Charles KrauthammerCharles Krauthammer Robert ZoellickRobert Zoellick

Origins of al-QaedaOrigins of al-Qaeda Inspiration from anti-Colonial movementsInspiration from anti-Colonial movements Arab-Israeli wars, Palestinian refugees Arab-Israeli wars, Palestinian refugees Lack of political freedom in Middle EastLack of political freedom in Middle East Failed developmentFailed development Failure of Arab Nationalism after Six-day War Failure of Arab Nationalism after Six-day War

(1967)(1967)

Islamist alternative: Sayyid Qutb, Muslim Islamist alternative: Sayyid Qutb, Muslim BrotherhoodBrotherhood

Iranian RevolutionIranian Revolution Soviet invasion of AfghanistanSoviet invasion of Afghanistan

Afghanistan in the 1990sAfghanistan in the 1990s

Rich Saudis radicalize the rebellionRich Saudis radicalize the rebellion Soviets withdrew: mission Soviets withdrew: mission

accomplishedaccomplished Mujahidin fight a civil warMujahidin fight a civil war Taliban emerge and dominateTaliban emerge and dominate

TalibanTaliban

Enter Osama bin LadenEnter Osama bin Laden

Came from wealthy familyCame from wealthy family Joined jihad, radicalizedJoined jihad, radicalized Created al-Qaeda to continue the Created al-Qaeda to continue the

strugglestruggle Financier of terrorist groupsFinancier of terrorist groups Kicked out of Saudi Arabia, Sudan, fled Kicked out of Saudi Arabia, Sudan, fled

to Afghanistanto Afghanistan

Understanding al-QaedaUnderstanding al-Qaeda

As organization (hierarchy, division As organization (hierarchy, division of labor)of labor)

As social movement (loose structure As social movement (loose structure united by common goals, allegiance)united by common goals, allegiance)

Ideology: resistance movement Ideology: resistance movement representing Muslims everywhererepresenting Muslims everywhere

Bin Laden’s ThreatsBin Laden’s Threats The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies

-- civilians and military -- is an individual duty -- civilians and military -- is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it, in order to liberate which it is possible to do it, in order to liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque and the holy mosque the al-Aqsa Mosque and the holy mosque [Mecca] from their grip, and in order for their [Mecca] from their grip, and in order for their armies to move out of all the lands of Islam, armies to move out of all the lands of Islam, defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim. defeated and unable to threaten any Muslim. Bin Laden, 1998Bin Laden, 1998

““We have the right to kill 4 million Americans—2 We have the right to kill 4 million Americans—2 million of them children—and to exile twice as million of them children—and to exile twice as many and wound and cripple hundreds of many and wound and cripple hundreds of thousands.”thousands.” Bin Laden’s spokesman, 2002Bin Laden’s spokesman, 2002

1996

2001

1998

2000