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A. Jahn 1 ,K. Sterling 2 , M.M. Holland 1 , J. Kay 1 , J.A. Maslanik 3 , C.M. Bitz 4 , D.A. Bailey 1 , J. Stroeve 5 , E.C. Hunke 6 , W.H. Lipscomb 6 , D. Pollak 7 Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University of Alaska at Fairbanks, Alaska, USA 3 University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA 4 University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA 5 National Snow and Ice Data Center, Colorado, USA 6 Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, USA 7 The Pennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania, USA To be submitted to J. Climate

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Page 1: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

A. Jahn1 ,K. Sterling2, M.M. Holland1, J. Kay1, J.A. Maslanik3, C.M. Bitz4 , D.A. Bailey1, J.

Stroeve5, E.C. Hunke6,W.H. Lipscomb6, D. Pollak7

Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4

1 NCAR, Boulder, USA2 University of Alaska at Fairbanks, Alaska, USA3University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

4University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA5National Snow and Ice Data Center, Colorado, USA6Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, USA

7The Pennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania, USA

To be submitted to J. Climate

Page 2: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

Objective and Method

• Objective: Establish how well the CCSM4 simulates the late 20th century Arctic sea ice and ocean propertiesThis is important in order to evaluate future CCSM4

projections for the Arctic

• Method: compare the six available 1981-2005 CCSM4 ensemble simulation with available observations

Page 3: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

Data used

• Sea ice: several satellite derived datasets with monthly resolution for 1979-2005 (except ICESat sea-ice thickness data, which only includes spring and fall for 5 years) Problem: often satellite data does not

provide the same variables as the model

• Ocean: climatological datasets for temperature, salinity and flux measurements from cruises and moorings not covered today, see paper

Page 4: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

Sea ice thickness

Kwok et al. 2009

Feb./March

Sept./Oct.

m

ICESat CCSM4

2003/04-2007/08averaged over: 2001-2005

Page 5: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

Sea ice thickness

ICESatCCSM4

Page 6: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

Sea ice thickness

ICESat CCSM4Ensemble mean Minimum member Maximum memberKwok et al. 2009

Feb./March

Sept./Oct.

Page 7: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

Seasonal cycle of ice extent

NSIDC sea ice extent (Fetterer et al. 2002)Bootstrap sea ice extent (based on ice concentration data from Comiso 1999)CCSM4 ensemble mean

Page 8: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

September ice extent

CCSM4 ensemble mean

Bootstrap sea ice extentNSIDC sea ice extent (NASA algorithm)

Milli

on k

m2

Page 9: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

September sea ice extent trends

Page 10: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

Multiyear ice

1981-85

1981-85

2001-05

2001-05

% of occurrence in 5 year period0 20 40 60 80 100

Satellite derived

CCSM4

Page 11: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

Sea ice velocity

Annual mean 1981-2005Pathfinder

Pathfinder

CCSM4

CCSM4

DJFM DJFM

AMJJAMJJ

ASON ASON

cm/s

cm/s

cm/scm/s

cm/s

cm/s

Ensemble mean

Fowler et al. (2003)

Page 12: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

SLP bias

de Boer et al. (2011)

Page 13: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

Sea ice velocity (DJFM)Pathfinder CCSM4

Fowler et al. (2003)

AO positive

composite

AO negative

composite

More cyclonic circulation weaker

Beaufort Gyre

More anticycloniccirculation stronger

Beaufort Gyre

Page 14: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

Summary

• The CCSM4 simulates the sea-ice thickness, multi-year sea ice cover, sea ice extent, and qualitative regime shifts in the sea-ice motion well compared to observations

• Individual ensemble members show important differences in sea-ice thickness patterns and sea-ice extent trends over 1981-2005, due to the imprint of natural variability

• Large biases in the sea-ice simulation exist mainly in the circulation pattern of the sea-ice, especially between spring and fall, and a displaced Beaufort Gyre

Page 15: Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean ... · Late 20th century simulation of Arctic sea-ice and ocean properties in the CCSM4 1 NCAR, Boulder, USA 2 University

Thanks!

Contact: [email protected]

NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation


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