jt lockman

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Building Resilience Workshop IV New Orleans, Louisiana

Implementing Social Change & Resilience EconomicsUses of the COAST Approach to Catalyze Action:

Helping Communities and StakeholdersDecide on Economically Viable

Sea Level and Storm Surge Adaptation Strategies

with the COAST software tool

Jonathan T. Lockman, AICPVice President of Environmental Planning

March 8, 2013

1:30 PM


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What is COAST?

COastal Adaptation to

Sea level riseTool


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In the Spring of 2012,Dr. Sam Merrill, Director of the New England EFC at theMuskie School, created Catalysis Adaptation Partners , to

spread the use of the Coast Approach beyond Maine andNew England.

SamuelMerrill, PhDPresidentCOASTdeveloper

J.T. Lockman, AICP Vice PresidentEnvironmentalPlanning

Peter Slovinsky Vice PresidentGeologicalSciences

Paul Kirshen,

PhDSeniorTechnicalConsultantClimateScience

Ellen Douglas,

PE, PhD SeniorTechnicalConsultantEngineering

Jack Kartez,

PhDSeniorTechnicalConsultantCitizenEngagement

http://www.catalysisadaptation.com
http://www.catalysisadaptation.com/http://www.catalysisadaptation.com/


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Why did we name the company Catalysis?

The word catalysis comes fromchemistry. To catalyze means to

create a reaction by bringing thingstogether; we are experts in catalyzinglocal adaptation to sea level rise andstorm surge, by bringing togetherinnovative technology with tailoredcommunity engagement processes.


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ACTIONSOCIAL POLITICAL

E C O N O M I C

Social +Political +Economic

Factors =Force for Action


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Helping Communities Decide on

Sea Level and Storm Surge Adaptation Strategieswith the COAST software tool

COAST is flexible; it can provide cost-benefit analysis for manycandidate adaptation actions to protect a diversity of vulnerable

assets, staged over time. Different scenarios for sea level rise and storm surge can be

inputted in to the model, after stakeholder engagement.Stakeholder engagement delivers social buy-in.

Vulnerabilities to damage are mapped and quantified based on thescenarios.

Costs of adaptation strategies are estimated. The software willgenerate prediction of cumulative expected damages avoided overtime, with different strategies providing a cost benefit analysis.


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There are only four adaptation options: 1) Do nothing (usually = remain in denial)

2) Fortify assets3) Accommodate higher water levels4) Relocate assets


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Steps in the COAST Process

1. Engage Stakeholders toSelect Different Scenarios forSea Level Rise and StormSurge.


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Scientists Get It But

Everyday People Do Too


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0

16

32

47

63

79

S e a

L e v e l

C h a n

g e ( i

n c h e s )

8

24

40

55

71

Projection of Sea Level Rise from 1990 to 2100

Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. PNAS 106, 21527 21532.


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Use Local Data Connect

with Peoples Experiences


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2. Provide a Vulnerability Assessment with CumulativeExpected Damage Estimates

Over Time for a No ActionScenario of Sea Level Rise andStorm Surge

Steps in the COAST Process


15/50Example: Hudson River, Kingston, NY

New York City

Albany

Kingston


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Select an Asset to Model: Damage to Real Estate


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To Predict FutureDamage to Real EstateYou Need a Tax Parcel Map with Assessed Values


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Then you need to input predicted flood heights from the 10 year, 25 year, 50 year, 100 year, and

500 year storms, from your FEMA flood insurance study or whatever youve got


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COAST Model for City of Kingston Modeled Water Levels and Vulnerability Assessment


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COAST Model for City of Kingston - Modeled Water Levels and Vulnerability AssessmentResults

Year

SeaLevelRise

Scenario

StormIntensit

y (returnperiod

in years)

PredictedElevationof FloodHeightfromFEMA Flood

InsuranceStudy,2007

NAVD88(ft.) 1

COASTModel of

SeaLevelRise

AboveMHHW in 2013

Selectedby

Kingston(in./ft) 2

COASTModelTotalFlood

Elevation forEach

ScenarioNAVD 88

(ft.)

COAST ModelExpected

Damage to the Value of

All Buildings &Improvements

FromThis Single

Storm Incidentin the

Scenario Year($ Million)

COAST ModelExpected

Damage to the Value of

Waste WaterTreatment Plant

Only From

This Single StormIncident in theScenario Year

($ Million)

COAST ModelCumulative

Expected Damageto the Value of

All Buildings &Improvements

From All Storms , 2013 to

Scenario Year($ Million) 3

COAST ModelPercent of

Cumulative ExpectedDamage

to the Value of All Buildings &ImprovementsFrom 2013 toScenario Year

Attributable toSea Level Rise Only

(Percent) 3

20131

No SLR 10 yr 6.0 0 0 6.0 12.0 8.7 n/a n/a

2013 2No SLR 100 yr 8.2 0 0 8.2 21.7 16.8 n/a n/a

2060 3

Lo SLR 10 yr 6.0 20 1.67 7.7 18.8 14.4 69.0 26.8%

2060 4

Lo SLR 100 yr 8.2 20 1.67 9.9 24.7 18.8 69.0 26.8%

2060 5

Hi SLR 10 yr 6.0 36 3 9.0 22.0 16.8 73.5 31.7%

2060 6

Hi SLR 100 yr 8.2 36 3 11.2 29.5 22.2 73.5 31.7%

2100 7

Lo SLR 10 yr 6.0 33 1.75 8.8 21.9 16.8 82.7 28.6%

2100 8

Lo SLR 100 yr 8.2 33 1.75 11.0 27.5 20.6 82.7 28.6%

2100 9

Hi SLR 10 yr 6.0 68 5.67 11.7 29.7 22.2 88.3 34.8%

2100

10

Hi SLR 100 yr 8.2 68 5.67 13.9 34.5 24.8 88.3 34.8% 1Tidal state is included in FEMA FIS predicted flood elevations for the 10 year and 100 year storms.2Elevation of Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) in year 2013 is 3.0 feet (NAVD 88).

Date Run: 03-03-2013

Lost Value of Buildings and/or Improvements to Land


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Lost Value of Buildings and/or Improvements to LandFor Flooding Scenario #7 , Flood Height: 8.8 ft. (NAVD 88) Year 2100, With Low Sea Level Rise and a 10-year Storm10% Probability of Occurrence in Any Given Year

Total Damage for this Event: $21.9 MillionDamage to Wastewater Treatment Plant: $16.8 Million

Lost Value Due to Sea Level Rise Lost Value Due to Sea Level Rise + Storm Surge

Cumulative Expected Damages by 2 With Low Sea Level Rise = $82.7 Million


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West Strand Street

Rondout Landing Area, Kingston, NY COAST OutputRelative Height of Blue Boxes Indicates Predicted DollarDamages to Buildings and Improvements


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Year 2060, 100-yr Storm, Hi SLR, Height = 14.2 ft NAVD 88

JAF Partners Inc.@1 Broadway Height of Blue Box IndicatesPredicted Damages toBuildings and Improvements

Scenario 6: Year 2060, 100-yr Storm, Hi SLR, Height = 14.2 ft NAVD 88

PrintKey 56.43-5-40

Acreage 0.12392824

ADDRESS_NU 1

ADDRESS_NA BROADWAY

PRIOR_PC 482

NEW_PC 482

OWNER_1 JAF Partners Inc

STREET 30 Broadway

CITY_STATE Kingston NY

ZIP_CODE 12401

BOOK 01512

PAGE 00355

PR_TOTAL_A 1012000

PR_LAND_AV 169000

ZONING RT

NO_BEDS 0

NO_BATHS 0

bldgvalue 843000

RawDepth 2.151024288

Depth 2.151024288

Damage 157897.134100422

Extrusion 16.78971341


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COAST Model Output Can Be Easily Used by the Community

All output files are in Google Earthformat, and can be easily distributed.

Google Earth is available as a freedownload usable on a variety of operatingsystems. Friends can share the files anduse them at home to show others.

Users can fly through the community toany location and look up potential flooddepths and damages.


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Damage to Assets Other than Real Estate

Can be Modeled:Economic outputPublic health impacts

Displaced persons, vulnerable demographicsNatural resources valuesCultural resources valuesCommunity impactsInfrastructure (transportation, energy, facilities,telecommunications )


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3. Select Candidate Adaptation Actions to Protect from Sea Level

Rise and Storm Surge, StagedOver Time, and Estimate theCosts of Each Action

Next Steps in the COAST Process

4. Perform a Cost Benefit Analysisof Adaptation Strategies


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Example: Groton/Mystic, Connecticut


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Selected Public Assets and Thresholds for Vulnerability

Asset 100 Yr.Flood

High SLR Low SLR

Seabrook WW Treatment Plant 9.8 now now

Hampton WW Treatment Plant 9.8 now now

Hampton Police Station 8.2 now now

Hampton Sewage Pump Station 6.6 now now Seabrook Middle/Elem. School 14.8 ~2080 >2100

Hampton High School 23.0 >2100 >2100

NextEra Nuclear Power Plant 19.7 >2100 >2100

Example: Hampton Beach, New Hampshire


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S i l l l d


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Credit: Robin Utrecht/AFP/Getty Images Flooding in the Netherlands

Some social lessons learnedusing the COAST approach:


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Some social lessons learned

using the COAST approach:Fear is a powerful motivator.Communities that have experienced f looding dont needconvincing that there is a problem.

Citizens want cities, towns and states to get beyond vulnerability studies and to start putting adaptationstrategies in place! As a general rule, local action is the level where we are working.Higher levels of government provide research and basicresources that we use (aerial photography, LiDAR, grantsfor studies), but States and the US Congress are notbuilding free adaptations anymore.


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Some social lessons learned

using the COAST approach: Agenda 21 and Tea Party Activism can make lifedifficult, but no one wants to drown in a flood.

Ultimately People and Business Owners want theirpocketbooks protected. Appropriations for expensive designs for adaptationstrategies (for example, elevating waterfronts orrelocating sewage treatment plants) will not happenuntil there is enough of a social/political/economicconsensus on a particular direction to take.


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[email protected] 207-590-5031http://www.catalysisadaptation.com
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

jt lockman

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