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Estonian Forest and Wood Industries Association’s Conference

–Sustainable future is made of wood

Tallinn, 6 June 2018:

Emerging wood-based products: potential and limitations

Ragnar Jonsson

Bioeconomy Unit (D.1)

JRC biomass assessment study

Assessment of current situationScenarios for biomass supply and

demand (2020-2030-2050)

Covering all sources and uses

Addressing impacts linked with

provision and use of biomass,

competition and synergies

between sectors for biomass

resources

One outcome of the 2012 EU bioeconomy strategy

JRC tasked with providing policy DGs with analysis as to biomass supply and demand – at

EU as well as global level - on a long-term basis

https://biobs.jrc.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/files/Biomass-study-JRC-leaflet.pdf

As part of the biomass assessment study, JRC is also assessing so-

called emerging / new wood-based products

❑ Short to medium time frame (until ~2030)

❑ Work conducted in cooperation with the European Forest

Institute (EFI)

No universal understanding,

but:

❑ Usually refers to products in the introduction or growth

phases of the product life cycle; novel products and/or

products based on new technologies / conversion pathways

❑ However, at times the concept also includes products with

resurging demand

What are “emerging / new wood-based products”?

Life cycle phases of some wood-based products

Phases Introduction Growth Maturity Decline Renewal

Examples

❑ Bio-chemicals;

❑ 2nd generation

biofuels

❑ Engineered

wood products

(EWP): CLT, LVL

❑ Sawnwood

❑ Wood-based

panels

❑ Newsprint;

❑ printing &

writing paper

❑ dissolving pulp

(for viscose)

Market

characteristics

• Technical and

economic

(entry)

barriers;

• Uncertainty

• Growth by

gaining market

shares

• Largely

independent of

GDP

development

• Stable / modest

growth

• Business cycle

dependency

• Decline due to

substitution by

superior

products:

electronic ICT

• Rebound in

demand due

to new drivers:

cotton prod.↓

Possible end uses of emerging/new wood-based products

Based on Cowie et al. (2014); Pöyry (2016)

Criteria Description

Volume Focus products having the largest potential in terms of revenue,

and those that imply significant wood use - niche markets excluded

Technological Readiness

Level ≥ 6,

(Time-to-Market < 5

years)

A product needs to be at least in pilot scale

Cost competitiveness vs. petrochemicals; vs. agricultural feedstock-based chemicals; vs. 1st generation

biofuels.

Compatibility with

existing industry

what can realistically be produced in conjunction with sawmilling and pulp & paper

production?

Sustainability New products should do better - at a minimum not worse - than existing products given

key indicators:

- Recyclability and resource efficiency

- Carbon balance

- Other / market specific: water footprint, toxic load, etc.

MARKETS PRODUCTS

Construction - CLT (cross-laminated timber);

- LVL (laminated veneer lumber)

- GLULAM: saturated market compared to CLT and LVL

Textiles

- IONCELL-F: dissolving pulp-based, non-hazardous solvent + better tensile strength and water

absorption capacity properties than viscose (rayon);

- Spinnova: spins fibre yarn directly from pulp mass

- Viscose: toxicity of solvent (carbon disulfide)

2nd generation biofuels

- biodiesel based on crude tall oil (CTO)

- ethanol based on sawdust

- FT-diesel: not cost competitive: 3–5 times more expensive than fossil-based diesel

- Methanol/DME: not cost competitive, competing with natural gas

Bio-chemicals

(platform chemicals)

- lactic acid (PLA)

- furfural

- 1,4-butanediol (BDO)

- succinic acid

- Isoprene: TRL 5

- itaconic acid: TRL 8-9, but small volume

Plastics and packaging- Wood-plastic composites (for outdoor decking, automotive interiors, etc.)

- Pulp-based, plastic-resembling films (for flexible packaging; plastic bags, etc.): e.g., PAPTIC

- Other, plastic resembling materials (for rigid packaging for food and other packaging): e.g.,

SULAPAC

EWP and prefabrication => wood construction competitive in large-

scale construction projects.

EWP expected to grow at an annual rate of around 25% (in monetary

terms) until 2022 (http://www.gtf-info.com/news/allied-market-

research-predicts-sharp-growth-engineered-wood-market/)

Drivers:

o policy (building regulations, measures to encourage

sustainable construction practices),

Barriers:

o risk-averse nature of the construction sector: perceptions of

key decision makers (main contractors and developers)

Construction

Textiles (1)

Global market: synthetic fibers (mainly polyester) 69%, cotton 23%,

MMCF 7% (of which viscose 96% )

Drivers:

o overall growth of global textiles market: from 91Mt in 2015 to

130 Mt in 2030

o “cellulose gap”: stagnating cotton production due to scarcity of

arable land and water, resources increasingly needed for food

production

Barriers:

o Technical attributes

Textiles (2)

Biochemicals (1)

Chemicals and biofuels conversion pathways

Biochemicals (2)

Biochemicals

Bio-based chemical market expected to grow 5% annually

Drivers:

o Market pull: leading consumer brands such as Coca Cola, P&G, IKEA,

and LEGO, have all set targets on replacing fossil-based chemicals

(polymers) with more sustainable alternatives

o Co-production with biofuels

Barriers:

o Low-cost natural gas: biochemicals at an economic disadvantage

relative to chemicals produced from natural gas

o Lignocellulose requires additional steps in the conversion process =>

cost disadvantage compared to agricultural feedstocks

o Competing innovations, e.g., CO2 Capture & Conversion for chemicals

2nd generation biofuels

Shift of focus to fuels used in heavy duty long distance road transport,

maritime transport, and aviation

Drivers:

o Policy, in particular EU revision of the RED and the Fuel Quality Directive;

transition 1st gen. - > 2nd gen. biofuels and other renewables options

Barriers:

o Low oil price, 2nd gen. biofuels not (yet) cost competitive with fossil fuels

o Uncertainty: post-2020 political landscape for biofuels still unclear

o Competition with other uses. E.g., CTO already used for producing a

number of chemicals (detergents, asphalt emulsifiers, oil field emulsifiers,

rubber emulsifiers, adhesives, lubricants, etc.)

o By-product from pulp production => supply contingent upon the demand

for paper

Plastics and packaging (1)

Plastics and packaging conversion pathways

Plastics and packaging (2)

WPC: EU production (in 2012) 260,000 tons, expected to grow 10% / year:

Decking 174,000 (67%), Automotive (car interior parts) 60,000 (23%), Siding

and Fencing 16,000 (6%)

source: https://compositesuk.co.uk/system/files/documents/WPC-NFC-Market-

Study-Short-Verson%202015.pdf)

Drivers:

o Market pull: industries looking for sustainable materials (recycled

plastics and wood industry residues; biodegradable) with enhanced

properties compared to wood: molded to virtually any shape, rot

resistant

o Policies to restrict the use of plastic

Barriers:

o Technical issues: e.g., low thermal stability, UV degradation, higher fire

hazard than wood alone

Value added depends on the position in the value chains

Value chains and the relative value created vis-à-vis the rawmaterial. The expected position of forest

industries indicated in grey.

1

1

x26

x20 x681

x17–5063x7–93

x28–43

1

1

Pulpwood suppliers

Sawlogs suppliers

Pulpwood suppliers

Pulpwood suppliers

Pulpwood suppliers

Dissolving pulp

producer

Primary wood

products

producer

Intermediate platform

producer (sugars,

pyrolysis oil, syngas)

Building block

producer

Resin producer

MMCF

producer

Secondary wood

products

producer

Biofuel convertor

(distillation,

fermentation, etc.)

Secondary

chemical

producer

Intermediate

producerEnd products

Conversion Packers

Prefabricated

buildings: (main)

contractor

Developer

Yarn

producer

Textile

producer

Garment

producer

1

x50 x76 x346 x1124

x7 x19 x42 x56

x40–155

Joint Research Centrethe European Commission's in-house science service

Serving society

Stimulating innovation

Supporting legislation

THANK YOU!

ragnar.jonsson@ec.europa.eu