dndc-europe adrian leip, joint research centre

JRC-AL: WORKSHOP, DATE

DNDC-EUROPE Adrian Leip, Joint Research Centre

1. DNDC-EUROPE: quick description of concept and status

2. Improvement of HSMU-layer for improved land use map and

simulation units

3. Preparing cross-compliance simulations


Socio-economic databaseSocio-economic database

DNDCDNDC

European national and international

statistics

European national and international

statistics

GIS environmental databaseGIS environmental database

CAPRICAPRI

Regional statisticsRegional statistics

National market/trade

Regional agricultural system + economic and environmental indicators

Policy frameworkPolicy framework

Global trade framework

Global trade framework

Production level and farm input estimation at spatial

calculation units

Agricultural land use map

Agricultural land use map

Definition of environmental scenario

Aggregation to modeling spatial units

Climate data and N deposition

Soil information

DNDC-EUROPE

Farm ManagementFarm Management

Simulation at modeling spatial unit

Environmental indicators - N2O, N2- NOx- CH4- NH3- Nitrate leaching- Carbon Stocks- Livestock density- …

Environmental indicators - N2O, N2- NOx- CH4- NH3- Nitrate leaching- Carbon Stocks- Livestock density- …

Geographic data

Developed in CAPRI-DynaSpat


DNDC-EUROPEDNDC-EUROPE

GIS database for individual simulation units

GIS database for individual simulation units

Climate library (including deposition)

Climate library (including deposition)

Output(one file per simulation year)

Output(one file per simulation year)

1. Geographic information1. Geographic information

2. Link to climate file2. Link to climate file

3. Soil data3. Soil data

4. Cropping information#4. Cropping information#

5. Farm management data$5. Farm management data$

6. Crop physiological data$6. Crop physiological data$

7. Initialization for winter crops$7. Initialization for winter crops$


HS

MU

-laye

r


Agricultural land use and livestock density


29 maps of crop shares


Validation with out-of-sample FSS data …


… and at the local scale


…. Soil Map again

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 98

Relative decrease of soil organic carbon stocks Relative decrease of N2O fluxes

Running simulation year after initialization

Relative decrease of organic carbon stocks

Relative decrease of N2O fluxes


Potential vs. actual simulated yield

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

]0…

0.2

]

]0.2

…0

.4]

]0.4

…0

.6]

]0.6

…0

.8]

]0.8

…1

]

]1…

1.2

]

]1.2

…1

.4]

]1.4

…1

.6]

]1.6

…1

.8]

]1.8

…2

]

]2…

SWHE BARL MAIZ POTA SUGB OFAR

Fre

qu

en

cy

(n

um

be

r o

f s

imu

lati

on

s)

Soil organic carbon content in the top 30 cm after the end fo the simulation period relative to the initialization conditions


→ The model calculates full

balance of nitrogen,

carbon and water

→ Spatial resolution: from 1

km-pixel to continental

→ matching of environmen-

tal conditions with

anthropogenic activities

→ Temporal resolution of

the model is <= 1 h for

some processes

All cropsMineral

fertilizer Manure N-fixation DepositionMineralizati

on$

Austria 75.3 37.8 19.6 9.9 4.5

Belgium 57.6 318.1 29.4 26.6 -2.2

Denmark 79.0 177.4 107.9 6.8 8.0

Finland 80.6 32.8 2.6 1.4 38.3

France 155.8 28.2 41.0 10.9 -0.9

Germany 182.6 54.1 13.7 11.2 11.6

Greece 55.8 14.6 3.5 2.6 0.6

Ireland 131.4 66.6 0.0 7.0 12.6

Italy 94.0 66.0 19.1 13.8 -9.1

Netherlands 118.7 214.4 12.1 26.7 17.1

Portugal 97.2 18.2 27.0 15.1 -0.4

Spain 60.3 13.6 6.2 4.6 0.5

Sweden 62.5 64.5 151.9 3.7 40.0

UK 103.7 20.1 17.8 8.9 10.5

Average 106.1 61.4 40.8 9.1 6.1

Nitrogen input

Leaching NH3 N2 NO N2OExport by

harvest

16.1 29.4 6.6 0.5 4.1 90.5

76.5 93.3 8.8 1.6 10.5 238.8

101.4 47.2 4.8 0.6 2.9 222.2

27.1 10.5 65.6 0.6 5.1 46.9

19.2 47.4 2.8 0.4 2.7 162.5

16.9 50.9 6.3 0.6 4.6 194.1

16.9 17.0 2.3 0.5 4.2 36.3

178.1 35.7 0.8 0.6 2.4 0.2

19.1 67.2 5.9 0.6 3.8 87.2

61.1 39.7 15.5 1.8 15.8 255.2

26.2 29.6 2.5 0.4 2.2 96.2

5.0 30.5 1.8 0.2 1.4 46.2

102.3 8.6 27.9 0.6 3.0 180.2

17.3 30.8 0.9 0.2 0.9 110.8

36.0 42.3 6.6 0.5 3.1 135.0

Nitrogen output


Short-term improvements

→ Realistic weather from 1975 – 2005

→ Slightly improved fertilizer and manure distribution

→ Estimation of potential yield

→ Higher number of HSMU

→ DNDC on windows and unix computers

→ Distributed simulation


Improved version of the HSMU layer

HMU (Homogeneous Mapping Units):Individual ID for the intersection

of -Slope

- Administrative borders- Soil mapping units

- Soil typological units

NCU:

Aggregation of the STU

Result will be an update of the old HSMU layer with Corine

resolved (as discussed in Paestum)

HSMU:(Homogeneous Soil Modelling

Units) Dissolve SMU layer HSMU-II will not be

georeferenced… but ‘pure’ from viewpoint of

environmental characteristics

NITRO-EUROPE CCAT


1.

Hig

h r

eso

luti

on

fore

st m

ask


Re-sampling to 1 km scale (majority)


2. Corine will NOT be used any more to delineate the HSMU

- Reduction of the number of the HSMU (relevant for the generation of the agri-land use map)

- Corine 100 m will be used to calculate “land cover shares” in HSMUs


3. Working at the STU-level

- without Corine and with STU there are 104000 HSMU for EU25

- transparent application of pedo-transfer rules ….


Simulating cross-compliance

→ Set up default run on the basis of CC measures and

compliance assumptions

→ Review of the parameterization of important management

activities• Tillage• Irrigation• Fertilizer application

→ Two Tier-approach• Simple implementation fo CC measures to screen a wide range of

measures• More detailed evaluation of most sensitive measures


Simulating cross-compliance (cont’d)

→ More attention to crop-specific data (genetic variability,

regional differences)

→ Continue to work on nitrogen application rates

→ Focus of simulations:• NEU: EU-GHG balance of arable soils• CCAT: specific crops/scenarios

dndc-europe adrian leip, joint research centre

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