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Regional Event Briefing Regional Event Briefing Regional Event Briefing Regional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branch Hydrology and Hydraulics Branch September 28, 2010 September 28, 2010 US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ®

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Page 1: Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Event BriefingRegional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branchand

Regional Event BriefingRegional Event BriefingRegional Event BriefingRegional Event BriefingJim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E.

John Daylor P.E.John Daylor P.E.Hydrology and Hydraulics BranchHydrology and Hydraulics BranchSeptember 28, 2010September 28, 2010

US Army Corps of EngineersBUILDING STRONG®

Page 2: Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Event BriefingRegional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branchand

Regional Event Briefing:Regional Event Briefing:Reservoir Reservoir InfowInfow & Elevation Forecasting& Elevation Forecasting

John Daylor P.E.John Daylor P.E.Hydrology and Hydraulics BranchSeptember 28 2010September 28 2010September 28, 2010September 28, 2010

US Army Corps of EngineersBUILDING STRONG®

Page 3: Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Event BriefingRegional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branchand

Reservoir Inflow & Elevation Forecasting:Reservoir Inflow & Elevation Forecasting:

What is it?What is it?Obtain estimated stream flow into reservoir toObtain estimated stream flow into reservoir toObtain estimated stream flow into reservoir to Obtain estimated stream flow into reservoir to

anticipate effects and actions for reservoir anticipate effects and actions for reservoir management (timing, peak, and volume). management (timing, peak, and volume). g ( g, p , )g ( g, p , )

Why?Why?Why?Why?Enhance decisions & operations of reservoir & Enhance decisions & operations of reservoir &

system for authorized purposes. system for authorized purposes. y p py p p

BUILDING STRONG®

Page 4: Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Event BriefingRegional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branchand

Variability of Reservoir Inflow Variability of Reservoir Inflow and Elevation Forecastingand Elevation Forecasting

NonNon--Exact Science of HydrologyExact Science of HydrologyAntecedence, Moisture ConditionsAntecedence, Moisture ConditionsAntecedence, Moisture ConditionsAntecedence, Moisture ConditionsSeasonal EffectsSeasonal EffectsStorm Size & Pattern & DurationStorm Size & Pattern & DurationStorm Size & Pattern & DurationStorm Size & Pattern & DurationField Data ReliabilityField Data ReliabilityInitial Conditions of ReservoirInitial Conditions of ReservoirInitial Conditions of ReservoirInitial Conditions of ReservoirBasin System Conditions, Fullness Basin System Conditions, Fullness

BUILDING STRONG®

Page 5: Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Event BriefingRegional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branchand

Upper Verdigris River Basin

Toronto Lake

Fall River Lake

Big Hill LakeElk City Lake

Oologah Lake

BUILDING STRONG®

Page 6: Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Event BriefingRegional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branchand

Upper Verdigris River BasinRegulation Point

Toronto LakeCoyville

Fall River LakeAltoona

Fredonia

Fall River

Big Hill LakeElk City Lake Cherryvale

Coffeyville

Independence

Oologah Lake

Coffeyville

Lenapah

BUILDING STRONG®

Page 7: Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Event BriefingRegional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branchand

Toronto Lake & Dam:Upper Verdigris River BasinUpper Verdigris River Basin

BUILDING STRONG®

Page 8: Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Event BriefingRegional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branchand

24-Hour Precipitation from Digital Radar7 AM 8 June – 7 AM 9 June 2010

7.72’’

7 82’’7.82

BUILDING STRONG®

Toronto Dam 3.10’’

Page 9: Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Event BriefingRegional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branchand

Verdigris River @ Virgil, KSObserved & Forecasted River Flow

BUILDING STRONG®

Page 10: Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Event BriefingRegional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branchand

Toronto Lake Inflow & Elevation Forecast

Surcharge Zone

Top Flood Storage Zone Elev 931.0

Flood Storage Zone@ Elev 926.0

73.2% F.S.

Normal Lake Elev 901.5

Forecasted Inflow

BUILDING STRONG®

Release Plan

Page 11: Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Event BriefingRegional Event Briefing Jim Croston P.E., Scott Henderson P.E. John Daylor P.E. Hydrology and Hydraulics Branchand

Reservoir Inflow & Reservoir Inflow & Elevation ForecastingElevation Forecasting

Questions?Questions?Questions?Questions?

BUILDING STRONG®


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