jessica ludy, unesco-ihe, arcadis-us natural hazard mitigation association june 27, 2013
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Flood Risk Perception on Lands ‘ Protected’ by Levees. Jessica Ludy, Unesco-IHE, ARCADIS-US Natural Hazard Mitigation Association June 27, 2013 University of California, Berkeley United States Fulbright Program Technische Universiteit Delft, Netherlands - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Jessica Ludy, Unesco-IHE, ARCADIS-US
Natural Hazard Mitigation AssociationJune 27, 2013
University of California, BerkeleyUnited States Fulbright Program
Technische Universiteit Delft, Netherlands
With contributions from G. Matt Kondolf and John Cain
Flood Risk Perception on Lands ‘Protected’ by Levees
“The levees were built to protect us for 100 years.”
A 100-year Flood is…A 100-year Flood is…
“A major flood that comes every 100 years—it’s a worst-case scenario.”
A 100-year Flood is…A 100-year Flood is…
“The last flood came in 1950—the next one will be in 2050.”
A 100-year Flood is…A 100-year Flood is…
“Flooding is unlikely and if flooding occurs, it will be minimal.”
I would not evacuate because…I would not evacuate because…
“I am handicapped and disabled, and have trouble getting around.”
I would not evacuate because…I would not evacuate because…
“I swim very well…”
I would not evacuate because…I would not evacuate because…
“I don’t know where else to go.”
I would not evacuate because…I would not evacuate because…
“I can assure you any efforts you make to communicate risk to these people will be squashed”
-(paraphrased) Anonymous City Planner, Unnamed Levee-protected town, United States
Jones Tract, 2004
Flooding is the number one natural hazard in the world (and the US)
Thailand 2011: Credit: Lyon
Sacramento, CA 1850
Londonderry, VT: Romalo 2011
Jones Tract, CA 2004Arkansas City, AR, 1927
Australia, 2011; P. Hamilton
Introduction
Introduction
Flooding is the number one natural hazard in the world
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
Flood damages are rising
Despite a U.S. policy aimed at reducing risk
Introduction
Introduction
New Orleans 1965New Orleans 1927 New Orleans 2005
NOAA photo library
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
Flood damages are rising, A fatal flaw in policy: land behind levees no longer considered official “floodplain”
increasing development (risk) behind the levees.
Despite a U.S. policy aimed at reducing risk
Introduction
Introduction
San Joaquin County, California, 2010San Joaquin County, California, 2010
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
Risk =probability X consequences
Introduction
Introduction
Jessica Ludy, 13 November, 2012Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
In the United States, Levees Increase Risk
Image: Jessica Ludy
Introduction
Introduction
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
Sacramento “Pocket”California Dept Water Resources
Times Picayune 2010
55% U.S. Population Lives in Counties Protected by levees-
Goal: to reduce federal expenditures in disaster relief
Flood Insurance Act 1968
Graphics: Jessica Ludy
National Flood Insurance Program
National Flood Insurance Program
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
Floodplain Management Flood InsuranceFlood Hazard Mapping
Flood Insurance Act 1968
Adopted an insurance standard of 1/100yr flood
National Flood Insurance Program
National Flood Insurance Program
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
“In the floodplain”No new developmentInsurance required“floodproof” houses
100-year floodplain
Special Flood Hazard Area
How it works
National Flood Insurance Program
National Flood Insurance Program
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
“Out of the floodplain”No insurance requiredNo building requirements
“In the floodplain”No new developmentInsurance required“floodproof” houses
100-year floodplain
Special Flood Hazard Area
“Devil is the the Details” Land behind levees treated differently
Sound Idea: identify flood-prone lands, map them, and prohibit development therein.
National Flood Insurance Program
National Flood Insurance Program
Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013
The story of Bill and Bob
20
10
0
100 year flood
Bob has to buy flood insuranceBill is ‘safe’ behind a
FEMA –accredited levee
Graphic: John Cain
National Flood Insurance Program
National Flood Insurance Program
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
How well do residents “protected” by 100-year levees understand their true level of risk?
Other studies:Burningham et al (2008): U.KTerpstra and Gutteling (2008): NetherlandsSiegrist and Gutscher (2006): Switzerland
The QuestionThe Question
Why does it matter?
Behavior in an emergency is tied to risk perception
Flood losses tend to be larger where people are unaware
Exposing people to involuntary risk means people cannot choose to avoid the threat
The QuestionThe Question
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Sacramento River, upstream of the DeltaGulf of Mexico, New Orleans
50 F0
88 F0
How well do residents “protected” by 100-year levees understand their
true level of risk?
In a floodplain: water levels rise slowlyBehind a levee: wall of water
The QuestionThe Question
Why does it matter?
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Experience MediaTrust in structures
“100-year flood?”
Misunderstanding terminology
BenefitsTrust in administration
Factors influencing risk perception
Denial
The QuestionThe Question
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Trust in structures
BenefitsTrust in administration
The QuestionThe Question
Typical “Raised Basement” house, New Orleans
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Sacramento-San Joaquin DeltaSacramento-San Joaquin Delta
Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013
Stockton
• New development (2000)
• 1300 houses
• Reaccredited 100-yr levee (PAL in 2006)
Spanos Park West, Stockton
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Sacramento-San Joaquin DeltaSacramento-San Joaquin Delta
Stockton
• 30,800 houses slated for development in San Joaquin County that face a flood threat
(Fridirici, 2008)
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Sacramento-San Joaquin DeltaSacramento-San Joaquin Delta
Lands from 0 to -4m below sea-level
Bear Creek Levee
Bear Creek Levee Bear Creek
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Sacramento-San Joaquin DeltaSacramento-San Joaquin Delta
Most households earn $80,000/year
Most households have a 4-year university degree
Ethnically diverse
Development Characteristics
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Sacramento-San Joaquin DeltaSacramento-San Joaquin Delta
Survey questions: awareness, preparation, concern, flood knowledge, experience
Bear Creek Levee
Bear Creek
Pumping station
MethodMethod
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
Residents not aware of flood risk
Not told they are at risk
Unprepared for a flood
ResultsResults
Survey Results
Photo: Andrea Gaffney
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Risk Perception
ResultsResults
How confident are you that your levee will protect you?
Is your property at risk?
not at all
somewhat
confident
very
high
moderate
low
not at all
very concerned
concerned
somewhat
no
Concern of flooded property
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
If a levee broke and your property flooded, how deep would it get?
ResultsResults
50% were correct50% underestimated or were unsure
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Expected damage to property
“gone…everything…Total loss”.
“carpet, floors, walls, insulation…”
“six inches at best, I’d think”
“hardly any, maybe just the front lawn”
ResultsResults
ASCE 2005
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Access to information?
ResultsResults
60% have not been informed
60% rarely hear about flooding
30% never hear about flooding
6% spoke with a real estate agent about flooding
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Understanding of a “100-year flood”
no
yes
somewhat
Thought they understood, but didn’t
ResultsResults
31%
2.6%
14%
52.4%
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
“The last flood came in 1950—the next one will be in 2050”
“Levees were made to protect us for 100 years”
“A major flood that comes every 100 years, it’s a worst—case scenario.”
ResultsResults
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
Understanding of a “100-year flood”
20% households have flood insurance
13% residents took “precautionary measures”: evacuation plans, valuables on 2nd story, disaster supply kit.
No boats.
Preparation
ResultsResults
Noaa photo library
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Neighborhood Voices
ResultsResults
“It is my understanding that my area is not in a flood zone. That the levees have been reinforced in the 1980s. If I felt or learned that a flood was eminent, I would take the steps to protect my property.’’
“We’re pretty insulated and inland. I can’t imagine that we would sustain much flood damage.”
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
What does it mean?
What does it mean?
Residents are exposed to involuntary risk
People of all levels of income/education are unaware
Perception that “100-year” standard protects from all flooding
*May 6, 2012Bear Creek Levee“Unacceptable Status”
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Policy indicates it is safe?Trust in Governments?
(Terpstra & Gutteling 2008; Motoyoshi 2006)
Why aren’t residents aware?Why aren’t residents aware?
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
Political pressure to prevent declining property valuesengineers, politicians, emergency responders keep risk quiet
Why aren’t residents aware?Why aren’t residents aware?
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
“If New Orleans is ever flooded, the world will not know it unless there is some outside newspaper man there.
The newspapers of New Orleans have not told their people the actual situation. It’s business depression that’s feared. Many leaders of the town had much rather take a chance at loss of life and destruction of property than face the possibility of the grain markets slumping a couple of notches…”
Rising Tide, John Barry
Why aren’t residents aware?Why aren’t residents aware?
Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013
“We’ve lost the Pioneer spirit”-Ron Baldwin, San Joaquin County Emergency Services
Photo: Califiornia Dept. of Water Resources
Why aren’t residents aware?Why aren’t residents aware?
Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013
Mississippi River Gulf Outlet
Photo: Jessica Ludy
Why aren’t residents aware?Why aren’t residents aware?
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Diverted and disconnected our rivers from the peopleEngineered ourselves out of the “floodplain”
Walnut Creek
Los Angeles
Why aren’t residents aware?Why aren’t residents aware?
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Dresden, Germany
Galway, Ireland
Sächsische Schweiz, Germany
Memories of FloodsMemories of Floods
Vaison-la-Romaine, FR
Köln, Germany
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Memories of FloodsMemories of Floods
Köln, Germany
Dordrecht, the Netherlands
Solutions? Solutions?
Communication Efforts:
Jessica Ludy, 13 November, 2012
Any guesses?
Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013
Harrison Ave, New Orleans, LA
Stockton, California, USA
Memory-free subdivisions
Memories of FloodsMemories of Floods
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
Discussion: What Can we do?Discussion: What Can we do?
How do you raise awareness in such a landscape?
Whose responsibility is it?
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
20
10
0
100 year flood
The United States is not alone.
Discussion: What Can we do?Discussion: What Can we do?
Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013
Discussion: What Can we do?Discussion: What Can we do?
There is risk everywhere, so why regulate in floodplains?
Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Solutions? Solutions?
Policy Changes:Land use restrictions in deep floodplains
Building codes behind levees
Risk disclosure prior to real estate purchase Source: California Dept. Water Resources
Elevated walkways in Hafen City, Hamburg
Image: Jessica Ludy 2010
Jessica Ludy, June 27 2013
Solutions? Solutions?
Behavior Changes: Awareness could influence decisions to
•Move to, build in, buy, or elevate in a hazardous area•Take personal precautionary measures (insurance, evacuation plans, etc) •Respond during an emergency•Build political will for budget, construction, maintenance of risk reduction measures
Jessica Ludy, April 25, 2013
Probability: Consequences:Levee/Dam Safety -Land Use PlanningBypasses -Emergency response
-Awareness, Education, Preparation-Building Codes, Insurance, etc
Solutions? Solutions?
Communication Efforts:To be effective, risk communication efforts MUST:
•Delivered at the local level
•Tailored to individual households, communities
•Delivered from credible/trusted sources
•Consistent, clear, and non-conflicting content
•Encourage and motivate behavior
•Use various modes of communication
•Repeat messaging
Levees and the National Flood Insurance Program: Improving Policies and Practices April 2013
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
Updates to State and Federal Legislation
California: Flood Risk Notification in levee-protected areasBuilding codes *
National Flood Insurance Program: (July 6, 2012)* Flood Risk Notification in levee/dam-protected areas
Map residual risk (behind levees/dams)
What Next?What Next?
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
Communication Efforts:California Flood Preparedness Week, November 4-8 2013FEMA “Know Your Line” http://www.fema.gov/know-your-line-high-water-mark-initiative
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
What Next?What Next?
“KATRINA”
“BFE”
Near London Ave, New Orleans
A few hundred feet south of breach
Post Levels on Levee-protected lands
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
“I need information. This opened my eyes.
Plus, I need to check whether this area is in a flood area.”
Jessica Ludy, June 27, 2013
What Next?What Next?
Ludy, J & GM Kondolf. (2012). Flood Risk Perception on Lands ‘Protected’ by 100-year Levees. Natural Hazards DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-0072-6
National Science Foundation EFRI grant 036047UC-Berkeley: Landscape Architecture & Environmental PlanningRon Baldwin, San Joaquin County Office of Emergency ServicesChris Neudeck, KSN Inc.United States Fulbright Program
Thank You
Thank You
CONTACT: Email: [email protected]://thewateraway.wordpress.com
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