jason sippel noaa/oar/aoml hurricane research division ... · jason sippel – noaa/oar/aoml...
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JasonSippel–NOAA/OAR/AOMLHurricaneResearchDivisionChrisLandsea–NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NationalHurricaneCenter
TheJHTisfundedbytheUSWeatherResearchPrograminNOAA/OAR'sOfficeofWeatherandAirQuality
98thAMSAnnualMee.ng-EighthConferenceonTransi.onofResearchtoOpera.ons-January10,2018
• OurMission: transfer
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JHT:Bythenumbers
• Numberofprojectssupported:95• 82completed• 54implementedintooperationsatNHC/EMC/other• 21notaccepted• 5deferred• 2unabletobeimplemented
• 8projectsstarted1Sep.2015(FY15-17:8thround,1complete)• 6projectsstarted1July.2017(FY17-19:9thround)
• ForecastorAnalysisBenefit:
• Efficiency:
• Compatibility:
• Sustainability:
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Ourprocess
• CallforProposals–draftedanddisseminated(bi-annually)
• PrincipalInvestigatorsapplyforfundingthroughNOAA
• SevenmemberSteeringCommitteeratesallproposals
• Fundedprojectsaretestedduring1or2hurricaneseasonsinconjunctionwithNHCpointsofcontact
• Attheproject’send,eachareevaluatedbyNHCandJHTstaff
• ImplementationofsuccessfulprojectsarethencarriedoutbyNHC
staff/PIs
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Current Project Highlights - FY15-17: 8th round Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index: Dunion
Eyewall Replacement Cycle ARCHER: Wimmers
NRL web page upgrades: Cossuth
Rapid Intensity Forecasting: Jiang
RI SHIPS improvement: Rozoff
New JHT Projects - FY17-19: 9th round
ProjectTitle PrincipalInvestigator(s)
ImprovementstoOperationalStatisticalTropicalCycloneIntensityForecastModelsUsingWindStructureandEyePredictors
GalinaChirokova(CSU/CIRA),JohnKaplan(AOML/HRD)
Ensemble-basedPre-genesisWatchesandWarningsforAtlanticandNorthPacificTropicalCyclones
RussElsberry(UC-CS)
ImprovementsandExtensionstoanExistingProbabilisticTCGenesisForecastToolUsingandEnsembleofGlobalModels
BobHart(FSU),DanHalperin(Embry-Riddle)
EstimationofTropicalCycloneIntensityUsingSatellitePassiveMicrowaveObservations
HaiyanJiang(FloridaIntlUniv.)
TransitionofMachine-LearningBasedRapidIntensificationForecaststoOperations
AndrewMercerandKimberlyWood(MSU)
EvolutionaryProgrammingforProbabilisticTropicalCycloneIntensityForecast
PaulRoebberandClarkEvans(UW-Milwaukee)
New JHT Project Highlights TC Genesis probability: Hart/Halperin
Estimating TC intensity with PMW obs: Zhang
Improving intensity forecasts with size
predictors: Chirokova
Improving RI forecasts with machine learning: Mercer
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The Joint Hurricane Testbed
www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht
Rappaportet.al.,2012-BAMS
JasonSippel–NOAA/OAR/AOMLHurricaneResearchDivisionChrisLandsea–NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NationalHurricaneCenter
TheJHTisfundedbytheUSWeatherResearchPrograminNOAA/OAR'sOfficeofWeatherandAirQuality
98thAMSAnnualMee.ng-EighthConferenceonTransi.onofResearchtoOpera.ons-January10,2018