NOAA Hurricane Isabel Assessment

John Sokich/Paul Scholz

NWS/NOS

December 16, 2004

Hurricane Isabel Assessment

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Outline

• Team Charge• NOAA Efforts - Hurricane Isabel• Assessment Recommendations

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Team Charge

Produce a “NOAA-wide” assessment report on the performance of NOAA during Hurricane Isabel– Facts, performance, best practices, recommendations

• Team Members– John Sokich NWS (co-lead)– Paul Scholz NOS (co-lead)– George Serafino NESDIS – Mark Powell OAR– Steve Kozak NMAO – Anne Lange NMFS

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Issue

• Assess NOAA performance during and after Hurricane Isabel– Increase awareness and visibility of NOAA efforts

• Involves all NOAA Line Offices (except PPI)• Improve dialogue across NOAA• Produce an assessment for NOAA Executive

Management

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NOAA Efforts - Hurricane Isabel

• View from Outside NOAA - Positives– NOAA support was excellent– Forecast and warning services lauded by emergency

management community– Internet access to information was fast– Support to FEMA by NOS and NWS

• Forecasts warnings• Graphical / GIS support to FEMA Region IV to assist in pre-

positioning recovery assets• Information to assist damage assessment recovery (e.g., hi-res

digital imagery of coastline)

– NMFS expedited approval of critical permits to allow dredging to rebuild destroyed roads

– NMFS response to impacted fishing industries

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NOAA Efforts - Hurricane Isabel

• View Outside NOAA - Negatives– Could do better with storm surge predictions

(Northern Chesapeake Bay and tributaries)– Could do better communicating potential impacts

“Didn’t know it was going to be as bad as it was”• Power outages• Surge flooding

– “One-stop shopping” on the Internet

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NOAA Efforts - Hurricane Isabel

• View Within NOAA - Positives– Services were excellent (NWS, NESDIS, NOS, NMFS)– Communication between NESDIS and NWS was good– Communication between local NWS forecast offices and

local NOAA assets was good (e.g., let them know how bad it was going to be)

– NMAO support for NOAA operational and research efforts– NMAO support for NOS post-storm digital imagery– Forecast accuracy exceptional, compared to average track

predictability– Research opportunity and support was excellent

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NOAA Efforts - Hurricane Isabel

• View Within NOAA – Negatives– NWS and NOS storm surge and modeling efforts

uncoordinated– NOS support for FEMA Region IV not widely known to

NOAA – NESDIS does not have backup GOES processing capability

and its World Weather Building site is a single point of failure for producing processed satellite data

– NMAO aircraft support for NOAA research activities encountered safety problem

– Transition of Research to Operations– Communication between Line Offices not as effective as it

needs to be

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NOAA Efforts - Hurricane Isabel

• View Within NOAA – Negatives (cont’d)– Communication with non-NOAA users of NOAA

products and services was not as effective as it needs to be

– Internal and external confusion over water levels– Many NOAA ASOS sites, tide gages, and buoys

failed during Isabel

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Assessment Recommendations

• Storm surge– Develop a cross-NOAA team to address corporate NOAA

effort in storm surge• User needs

• Storm tide

• Leverage NOAA storm surge assets

• Observations– NOAA Line Offices should collaborate on location and

placement of additional and replacement tide gage stations – Provide backup power to “key” ASOS, tide gages, and

buoys

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Assessment Recommendations

• Internet – Do not display non-NOAA or experimental data/forecasts on NOAA

websites without proper disclaimers– Use commercial Web service (outsourcing) to meet surge demand events

(e.g., landfalling hurricanes, major winter storms) – Develop a single, easily navigable, storm/event website to access storm-

related NOAA information

• Communication and outreach– Develop material and simple inventory of existing NOAA products and

services for outreach to users– Use all available NOAA and NOAA family resources (e.g., Warning

Coordination Meteorologists, Coastal Zone Managers, Sea Grant partners, etc.,) to communicate and educate users

• Develop overall NOAA plan to approach response corporately

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Backup Examples

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Observed Water Level and Wind Product

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Hurricane Isabel Track and Warning

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SLOSH Forecast Issued (forecast winds)

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SLOSH ‘Hindcast’ (observed winds)

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High-Resolution Damage Assessment

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Graphical GIS Support to FEMA Region IV

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Graphical GIS Support to FEMA Region IV

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Graphical GIS Support to FEMA Region IV

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Graphical GIS Support to FEMA Region IV

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Graphical GIS Support to FEMA Region IV