It’s a dog life: modelling the UK dog population

Alessandro Arbib

2

Overview of this presentation• Background

• Objectives & Scope

• Summary of work

• Evidence gaps

• Outcomes

• Working with the Third Sector

Modelling the UK dog population

Background

Background

4`` Modelling the UK dog population

The RSPCA is the UK’s leading animal welfare charity.

Dog-ED is a Social Enterprise applying Systems Thinking to canine welfare.

3 Operational Research and 1 engineer from DECC

Objectives and aims

Alessandro Arbib

6

Objective & AimsTo answer the following question:

• A consensus view of how many dogs there are “in the system” and how they move between different parts of the system

• How many dogs are relinquished and why? Which type of dog?

• Can we forecast the likely impact of different interventions ?

Modelling the UK dog population

7 Modelling the UK dog population

Scope of the work

• Review the available data

• Design and build a model

• Develop recommendations for possible uses and future development of the model

Summary of work

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9 Modelling the UK dog population

Literature ReviewLiterature Review of relevant papers and reports

• ~50 different sources

• ~100 data points and times series

• Assessment of data quality

10 Modelling the UK dog population

Snapshot of dog population

Aim: Consensus view of dogs that are in the system

• No consensus between sources possible

• Multiple discrepancies

• Validity of some sources should be questioned

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13 Modelling the UK dog population

The Model

Stray dogs

Dogs in welfare

Owned dogs

Owned births

Owneddeaths

Stray births

Stray deaths

Welfarebirths

Welfare deaths

Owned dogs to welfare

Welfare dogs to owned

Owned dogs to stray

Stray dogs to ownedStray dogs to welfare

Imported owned dogs

Dogs imported towelfare

Owned dogexports

Number of dogsmicrochipped

Owner educationlevel re dogs

Welfare life expectancy

Owned dog lifeexpectancy

Stray dog lifeexpectancy

Space available inwelfare

Euthanasia policy

Emmigration

Number of dogbreeders

Number of puppyfarms

Funding for welfare

Welfare capacity

Demand fordogs in UK

Number ofowned dogs

having puppies

Demand for dogs -non-UK

Disposable income

Insurance rates

Number ofdogs lost

Number ofdogs

abandoned

Number of dogsneutered

9.4m (23)

2009 LB: 12,340

2010 LB:10,630

est 1,250 (300to 2130)

111,000 peryear (13)

Strays back to owner -53,280 per year (13)Rehomed - 9,990

per year (13)

Put to sleep/die 8,880per year (13)

Working dogs

27,750 per year (13)

Entering welfare:129,743 per year (1)

0.5% of welfare inflows (27, scaled)

11.4% of outflow died (27)LB 7142 euthanised (1)

Assume 0

Welfare dogs reunited withowner - 12.5% of those

entering = 16,218 (1). 7.7%of those entering (27)

Rehomed - 80.9%of outflows (27)

69.5% of welfareinflows (27, scaled)

30% of welfare inflows (27,scaled) - this includes LA and

public straying dogs

11.4% of dogs peryear? (36)

25% of dogs peryear? (est from

24, 41)

12 years (34)

4% of microchipped are from Ireland,3% from other EU, 2% from outside

EU - needs scaling up by 2% (24)

50,000 dogs importedfrom Ireland per year (31)

Working dogsto owned

greyhounds - 3,910per year (33)

Workingdog births

Workingdog deaths

Working dog lifeexpectancy

Requirements forworking dogs

Working dogs towelfareAt least 2500

police dogs(45)

14 Modelling the UK dog population

The Model• Stocks: Owned, In rescue, Stray

and Working

• Flows: birth and death rates, import and export rates, flows within the system

• Time step: weekly update

• Possibility to adjust flow rates (as effect of policy intervention)

Owned

Working

In Rescue

Stray

Evidence Gaps

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16 Modelling the UK dog population

Missing Stocks & FlowsStocks

Dogs in Welfare

• Lower bound only

Working dogs

• We can only get data on police dogs (from Wikipedia)

Flows

Numbers of dogs being imported into the UK

• Poor quality data from Defra

• Births of non-KC dogs: these are not registered

And more….

17 Modelling the UK dog population

Data QualityDifficult to get a breakdown of data by dog breed/category/time series

Granularity

• Little information about breed-rates of non-KC dogs (pure-breed, X-breed or mongrels)

• Lack of time series data

Inconsistency

• Significant variation in “top-down” estimates of total population

– 8.5-11+ million

– Significant uncertainty

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Predicting the future dog populationDog movements within the system

• Influenced by economic and societal influences

• These are very difficult to predict

Stock evolution

• Starting point for future calculation not known (e.g. 2014 dog pop.)

• Uncertainties are proportionally very high

Outcomes

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Significant outputs from our work• Significant review of data sources,

with all data summarised in one location

• Large number of evidence gaps identified

• Snapshot of dog population

• System map with stocks & flows

• Creation of Excel model to be populated as/when data comes available

What is next?Await introduction of compulsory microchipping in 2016

• This will provide a significant boost to the available data

• Breakdown of the total dog population into sub-categories will be much easier to obtain

• Trends will be more identifiable, and easier to track

Consider ways in which evidence gaps can be addressed:

• Surveys of owners and breeders

• Commission some academic work

• Work with the Kennel Club and PetLog

• Approach the Pet Food Manufacturers society

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Working for the Third Sector

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What went well• Application of OR techniques to

Pro Bono projects

• Enhanced knowledge of interesting areas

• Professional development

• Team spirit

• Excellent day at Battersea Dogs & Cats Home

• Relationship with client

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What could have gone better• Underestimate of project length

• Loss of momentum of project over last couple of months – the 10% of tidying up time has been drawn out.

• Disappointing that the ambition of original ‘ideal’ of building and using a model could not be realised due to lack of quality data.

24 Modelling the UK dog population

Questions?

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