itic americas canada’s growing & evolving seniors …€¦ · conferenceboard.ca itic...
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ITIC AMERICASCANADA’S GROWING & EVOLVING
SENIORS TRAVEL MARKET
David RedekopPrincipal Research Associate, The Conference Board of Canada
March 18, 2014
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• Size & growth of Canadian outbound leisure travel market with Snowbird emphasis
• Aging population influences travel decisions
• The opportunities for insurers
• Travel insurance channels, mobile, premiums
Speaking Points
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More Seniors than children by
2017 – first time in historyNumber of Canadians ≤14 and 65+ by year
Sources: Statistics Canada and CBoC calculations
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Source: Statistics Canada.
Canada’s Declining Fertility Rate(Crude birth rate per 1,000 females)
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• 260 thousand immigrants a year
• 50% from Asia/Pacific region in 2012
• 22% from Africa & Middle East
• Only 10% from Europe including the UK
• In 1941, 98% of immigrants were from Europe
First generation more likely to visit home country/area than travel to US.
Canada Depends on Immigration for Population Growth
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Canada’s Aging Population(% growth in population by age group between 2012 and 2031)
Source: CBoC calculation from Statistics Canada projections.
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65+ MAJOR TRAVEL MARKET
GOING FORWARD(% change between 2012 and 2030 in total outbound pleasure trips)
If Canadians aged 65+ make the same ratio of outbound pleasure trips in 2030 that they made in 2012, then outbound pleasure trips would grow by 95% for the 65+ age group by 2030.
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Canada: Total Outbound leisure trips(‘000 of outbound leisure trips, all destinations)
GlobalRecession
SARS
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Canada: US to recapture trip share(% share outbound leisure trips)
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Outbound Leisure Travel: Average
Annual Rate of Growth 2013 - 2017
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% Change in Snowbird Trips vs. Total
Outbound Leisure Trips
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Source: Statistics Canada.
2012 vs. 1998
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Non-US Snowbird Trips Growing at
Faster Rate than to US‘000 of trips Snowbird trips
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Canadian Snowbird Trips to US vs. Non-US
212,300
332,614
207,100
238,055
2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
65+ non-US
55-64 non- US
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Statistics Canada for trips in 2012 31+ nights.
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24%
4%
15%
25%
7%
21%
4%
18%
2%
16%
11%
4%
38%
13%
Did not think about it
Not convenient enough
Going for a night or two
Too expensive
Forgot about getting it
Other reasons
Not sure
55+
<55
% Covered by Private Insurance Last Trip Reasons Why not Covered
Source: The Conference Board of Canada Travel Intentions Survey April 2013.
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46%
20%
27%
1%
2%
3%
40%
30%
23%
4%
3%
1%
In person
By telephone
Online
By mail
Combination
Not Sure
55+
<55
Where Purchased Insurance How Purchased Insurance
Source: The Conference Board of Canada Travel Intentions Survey April 2013.
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View on Buying Travel
Insurance Using Cell PhoneType of Travel Insurance Used
Source: The Conference Board of Canada travel intentions survey April 2013.
50%
25%
22%
3%
30%
23%
38%
9%
VeryComfortable/Comfortable
Somewhat comfortable
Not at all comfortable
Not sure
55+
<55
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Snowbird Premiums($ Millions of individual trip & annual/multi-trip premiums)
$105 $114
$170 $174
$213$235
$223$242
$265
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014f 17
Source: The Conference Board of Canada based on survey of major travel insurers.
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• Canadian snowbirds 65+ are 2.7 times as likely to travel to the US for their snowbird trip versus to another destination.
• Canadian snowbirds 55-64 are only 1.4 times as likely to travel to the US for their snowbird trip versus to another destination.
• The willingness of the 55-64 snowbirds to travel to a non-US destination for their annual snowbird trip, will tend to slow the rate of growth in 65+ snowbird trips to the US as the 55-64 age group move into the 65+ age cohort.
More US Snowbird Trips as Population Ages
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Source: Statistics Canada 2000-2012. The Conference Board of Canada for 2013 estimate and 2014 forecast.
Number of Snowbird Trips each year(‘000 of outbound trips 31+ nights aged 55+)
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• Aging population a positive for travel insurers – more travel and more likely to purchase insurance.
• US will grow in importance as a destination over the next 20 years for insurers.
• Snowbirds are increasingly comfortable with buying travel insurance online but travel agent and personal contact remains important.
• Mobile option most important for short-trip auto travel to the US.
Wrap-up
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