item 5.1: 2015 summer weather outlook · june 9, 2015. 2 temperature item 5.1 ercot public. item...
TRANSCRIPT
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Item 5.1: 2015 Summer Weather
OutlookTemperatures, Precipitation, Drought and Hurricanes
Chris ColemanSenior Meteorologist
Board of Directors Meeting
June 9, 2015
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2
Temperature
Item 5.1
ERCOT Public
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 3
ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)
El Niños since 1980:
1982-83
1986-87-88
1991-92
1994-95
1997-98
2002-03
2009-10
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 4
Warming trend from the West over the past several seasons
Positive (warm) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO) has played a significant role. The Pacific Ocean
is the primary driver of Texas weather patterns.
Fall
2013
Spring
2014
Winter
2013-14
Summer
2014
Fall
2014
Winter
2014-15
Spring
2015
The Warming Pacific
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 5
2013: 21st hottest, 81.2° 2012: 13th hottest, 81.5°
2010: 11th hottest, 81.6° 2009: 29th hottest, 80.8°2014: 50th hottest, 80.4°
2011: 1st hottest, 84.6°(POR 1895-current, Jun-Sep; all of Texas)
2014 20122013
2011 2010 2009
Past Six Summers
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 6
Mild May 2015 as a Potential Summer Indicator
Mean
Temps
Min
Temps
Max
Temps
May 2015 recorded
ZERO days of 90° or
greater at Austin
Bergstrom International.
The last time that occurred
was 1987.
1987 was the 19th coolest
summer on record for the
state of Texas (120
summers).
Nine years since 1987
have had fewer than ten
90° days in the spring
season. None of those
years had summers
ranking in the top 50
hottest.
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 7
Historical Similar Summers to Forecast 2015
Original historical matches
With El Niño emphasis
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 8
Summer 2015 Temperature Outlook
Probabilities of an overall:
Hotter than normal summer: 10%
Near normal summer: 30%
Cooler than normal summer: 60%
Highly unlikely to rank with the summers of 2010-2013 (top 25) for heat
Less than TEN
100° Days
For
Dallas,
Austin,
San Antonio.
Increasingly unlikely the Far West
will be above normal.
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 9
Summer 1998
84.2°
Spring of 2011 versus Spring of 2015
Repeat of 2011? No.
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 10
Precipitation
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 11
2013: 64th driest, 10.89” 2012: 52nd driest, 10.35”
2010: 105th driest, 13.49” 2009: 60th driest, 10.78”
2014: 65th driest, 10.93”
2011: 1st driest, 3.60” (POR 1895-current, Jun-Sep; all of Texas)
2014 20122013
2011 2010 2009
Past Six Summers
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 12
1957
1972
1982
1987
1997
2003
1994
1988
1959
2005
Historical Similar Summers to Forecast 2015
With El Niño emphasis
Original historical matches
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 13
Summer Precipitation Outlook
Similar to last summer;
Possibly a bit wetter –
but not likely as wet
as spring.
Likely drier in
South Texas – barring
Tropical influences
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 14
Drought
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 15
Drought Monitor – Comparison to Last Year
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 16
Texas Reservoirs at 82.1%
(May 28, 2015)
Six months ago at 62.4%
Reservoir Levels
May 2015
was the wettest
month on record
for the state of
Texas. Average
rainfall was 7.54
inches.
June 2004 was
the previous
wettest at
6.66 inches.
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 17
Hurricanes
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 18
Hurricane Forecast
Historical Averages
Named Storms: 12
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 3
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Item 5.1
ERCOT Public 19
Hurricane Forecast
Total Named Storms: 7
Total Hurricanes: 3
Major Hurricanes: 1
Named Storms in Gulf: 1-4
Named Storms in Western Gulf: 0-2
Hurricane in Gulf: 0-2
Major Hurricane in Gulf: 0-1
Overall, less activity than normal. Opportunity
to be a bit more active in the Gulf than last year.
Named Storms with Texas Landfall: 0 or 1
Hurricanes with Texas Landfall: 0 or 1