© Kantar Worldpanel

A Summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market to 13 June 2010 – A Presentation to the National Consumer Agency

© Kantar Worldpanel

Headlines

– The value of the total grocery market has declined by 5.7% in the year to 13 June 2010, dropping to under €9 billion for the last 52 weeks

– However the decline in the market is slowing, with a 2.9% decrease for the 4 week period ending 13 June 2010 compared with same period in 2009.

– Overall the market is likely to move into growth during August driven by 2 factors

– This time last year was particularly tough, so this is now annualising

– Evidence of some price increases beginning to come through

– Overall shoppers are maintaining the number of trips but are spending 4.4% less per trip, spending €21.91 per trip.

– Budget products are the only products tier showing volume growth.

© Kantar Worldpanel

3

The total grocery market has lost over €527 million this year, declining by 5.7%

52 we €000’s 12 we €000’s

+1.2% -5.7%

-1.5% -4.4%

© Kantar Worldpanel

How is the total grocery market performing? The decline in the market is slowing which is particularly evident in a 4 w/e period.

720,969

683,340

663,855

4 w/e 15 JUN 08 4 w/e 14 JUN 09 4 w/e 13 JUN 10

4 we €000’s

-5.2%

-2.9%

© Kantar Worldpanel

5

While the market is still underperforming on shorter term, the rate of value decline is slowing down since the start of the year.

% Value Growth in Total Grocery

© Kantar Worldpanel

Private label maintains share at a third of total market value and 35% of volume

6

Private Label Share of Grocery

© Kantar Worldpanel

Inflation is beginning to come back into the grocery sector as 10% more markets are experiencing inflation compared with the Christmas 2009-10 period

7

© Kantar Worldpanel

The overall level of deflation within the total Grocery market has eased to -2.5% in 12 w/e June 2010

8

CSO data based on monthly surveyKWP data based on 12-weekly rolling trend

CSO Food & Beverage Inflation

© Kantar Worldpanel

9

So what is the effect on shopper behaviour?

Shoppers maintained the number of trips but spent 4.4% less each time

© Kantar Worldpanel

The number of markets where shoppers are choosing more expensive or non-promoted products is on the increase – however, this is largely a result of ‘extreme’ trading down this time last year

10

© Kantar Worldpanel

1111

Budget products are still the only product tier that shows volume growth, suggesting that trading down still is important in driving volume, but does not affect value to the same extent as last year

Change in Volume sales Share of Volume Sales

© Kantar Worldpanel

8.1 81.4 1.47.4 7.14.4 4.2

25.7 26.7

47.8 47.7

5.1 5

0102030405060708090

100

52 w/e 14Jun 09

52 w/e 13Jun 10

Value share Value growth

-5.7

-7.9

-7.7

-8.9

-11.5

-2.1

-5.9

-7.4

-14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0

TOTAL RST

TOTAL ALCOHOL

TOTAL HEALTHCARE

TOTAL HOUSEHOLD (inc Petcare)

TOTAL TOILETRIES

AMBIENT GROCERIES

TOTAL FRESH & CHILLED

FROZEN

Which sector is driving market growth annually? Total Outlets52 w/e 13 June 2010… All categories are declining over the past year – toiletries have shown the most decline while ambient groceries decline slower than the market average.

© Kantar Worldpanel

Which sector is driving market growth quarterly? Total Outlets12 w/e 13 June 2010… Like on an annual basis all categories are showing decline, however the decline among frozen, and fresh and chilled slows on a 12 w/e basis. The total RST decline is also slowing from -5.7% to -4.4% 12 w/e 13 June 10

7.3 7.21.4 1.47 6.94.4 4.3

25.9 26.4

48.8 48.6

5.1 5.2

0102030405060708090

100

12 w/e 14Jun 09

12 w/e 13Jun 10

Value share Value growth

-4.4

-5.6

-6.8

-6.5

-7

-2.5

-4.9

-3

-10 -5 0

TOTAL RST

TOTAL ALCOHOL

TOTAL HEALTHCARE

TOTAL HOUSEHOLD (inc Petcare)

TOTAL TOILETRIES

AMBIENT GROCERIES

TOTAL FRESH & CHILLED

FROZEN

© Kantar Worldpanel

Brief Overview of UK Market

© Kantar Worldpanel

Market Growth & InflationSmall upturn in market growth as inflation remains at 1.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

13

Ju

l 08

10

Au

g 0

8

07

Se

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8

05

Oct

08

02

No

v 0

8

30

No

v 0

8

28

De

c 0

8

25

Ja

n 0

9

22

Fe

b 0

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Ma

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19

Ap

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Ju

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06

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Oct

09

01

No

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9

29

No

v 0

9

27

De

c 0

9

24

Ja

n 1

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21

Fe

b 1

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0

% c

ha

ng

e

12 we growth 12 we inflationGrocery (RST) 12we 13 June 2010 (KWP P07)

© Kantar Worldpanel

Grocery Coping StrategiesIncreased volume is the key contributor to the gap

1.5

1.9

2.3

-1.3

-0.1

0.0

Inflation HH VolumeChange

Store Choice PromotionChoice

Product Choice HH SpendChange

con

trib

utio

n t

o c

ha

ng

e %

pts

-

Grocery (RST) 12we 13 June 2010 (KWP P07)

© Kantar Worldpanel

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3% 1

8 M

ay

08

15

Ju

n 0

8

13

Ju

l 08

10

Au

g 0

8

07

Se

p 0

8

05

Oct

08

02

No

v 0

8

30

No

v 0

8

28

De

c 0

8

25

Ja

n 0

9

22

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b 0

9

22

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r 0

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9

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9

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9

12

Ju

l 09

09

Au

g 0

9

06

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p 0

9

04

Oct

09

01

No

v 0

9

29

No

v 0

9

27

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9

24

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n 1

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21

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b 1

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.13

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0

con

trib

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o c

ha

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pts

Volume change Store Choice Promotions Product Choice

Grocery Coping StrategiesThe trend continues to be driven by volume but falls back on last period

Grocery (RST) 12we 13 June 2010 (KWP P07)