27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

Inverse Modeling of CO Emissions

Results for Biomass Burning

Gabrielle Pétron

National Center for Atmospheric Researchgap@ucar.edu

Multi-year inversion of CO sources using

MOPITT data

Land clearing fires in the Kalimantan region of the island of Borneo, Indonesia

NASA photo, 09/18/91

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

Role of CO in the troposphere Oxidation capacity of the atmosphere Precursor of tropospheric ozone Indoor and urban pollutant

Houston

Santiago

http://eces.org/archive/gallery/airgfx

NOx

CO2

+ HO2COV CONOx

+ NOCO + OH + O2

O3+UVNO2

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

CO emissions

Known : nature of sources combustion of C matter, chemical production...

Uncertain : sources quite variable (x,t) intensities location timing, seasonality, interannual variations splitting : fossil fuel/biofuel....

Tools to study CO budget: emissions inventories observations models

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

Sources & Sinks of CO

Fossil fuel : 300-600 Biomass burning: 300-900

(forests, savannas, agric. waste burning, fuel wood use)

Vegetation : 50-200 Oceans : 6- 30 Methane oxidation : 400-1000 HCNM oxidation : 300-1000

TOTAL Source = 1400 – 3700 TgCO/yr Photochemical sink : 1400-2600 Surface deposition: 150-500

TOTAL Sink = 1550 – 3100 TgCO/yr

TgCO/yr

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

Tools to study CO budget

Observations local,regional,global in situ/remote sensing continuous, campaign

Models city-scale,regional,global transport/chemistry (on/offline)

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

July 2000 Total column of CO : MOZART2 (top) and MOPITT (bottom)

JUL MOZART2, CO-column, scale=1.e17

-100 0 100 Longitude

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

JUL MOPITT, CO-column, scale=1.e17

-100 0 100 Longitude

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

underestimation of biomass burning emissions

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

Motivations for Inverse Modeling and Data Assimilation

Quality and expansion of the Observing Systems surface stations networks remote sensing intensive regional campaign

Progress in Modeling computation capacity representativeness of complex CTMs

o improved parameterizations – chemistry (more species, trace gases and particles)– transport (esp. analyzed meteorological fields)

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

MOPITT/MOZART CO at 850 hPaPhase 1 : April 2000 to April 2001

Phase 2 : September 2001 to December 2003

A priori biomass burning (WF) monthly emissions in MOZART: scaling of MODIS fire counts

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

Multi-year CO inversion

MOZART CTM MOPITT satellite data

April 2000-December 2003

A Priori Emission Inventory

Atmospheric CTM

MOPITT Observed COJUL MOZART2, CO-column, scale=1.e17

-100 0 100 Longitude

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

JUL MOPITT, CO-column, scale=1.e17

-100 0 100 Longitude

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

JUL MOZART2, CO-column, scale=1.e17

-100 0 100 Longitude

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

JUL MOPITT, CO-column, scale=1.e17

-100 0 100 Longitude

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Optimized Emission Inventory

INVERSE MODELING

MOZART Modeled CO

North of 14oN

0

20

40

60

80

100

J0 M M J S N J1 M M J S N J2 M M J S N J3 M M J S N

Tg

CO

/mo

nth Fossil fuel Biofuel Wildland fires

North of 14oN

0

20

40

60

80

100

J0 M M J S N J1 M M J S N J2 M M J S N J3 M M J S N

Tg

CO

/mo

nth

POET CO emissions + a priori WF Optimized CO emissions

Figure 2 Figure 3

The discrepancies between the observed and the modeled CO

distributions can be used to optimize poorly known parameters of the model

– here, CO anthropogenic

emissions.

1

2 3

4

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

CO FF BF WF optimized

emissions for four latitudinal

bands

North of 14degN

0102030405060708090

100

J0 M M J S N J1 M M J S N J2 M M J S N J3 M M J S N

Tg

CO

/mo

nth

Fossil fuel Biofuel Wildland fires

Equator-14degN

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

J0 M M J S N J1 M M J S N J2 M M J S N J3 M M J S N

Tg

CO

/mo

nth

Equator-14degS

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

J0 M M J S N J1 M M J S N J2 M M J S N J3 M M J S N

Tg

CO

/mo

nth

South of 14degS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

J0 M M J S N J1 M M J S N J2 M M J S N J3 M M J S N

Tg

CO

/mo

nth

Fossil Fuel Use

Biofuel Use

Wildland Fires

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

CO WF Emissions

Wildland fires PRIOR

0

50

100

150

200

250

Europ

eUSA

East A

sia

South

Asia

North

Asia

Canad

a

Ocean

ia

South

Eas

t Asia

North

Eq

Africa

South

Eq

Africa

South

Afri

ca

Centra

l Am

erica

South

Cen

t Am

erica

South

Am

erica

Tg

CO

/yr

2000 2001 2002 2003

Wildland fires POST

0

50

100

150

200

250

Europe

USA

East A

sia

South

Asia

North

Asia

Canada

Oce

ania

South

East

Asia

North

Eq

Africa

South

Eq A

frica

South

Afri

ca

Centra

l Am

erica

South

Cen

t Am

erica

South

Am

erica

Tg

CO

/yr

2000 2001 2002 2003

inversion results

a priori inventory based on MODIS fire counts

North Asia: high emissions in 2002 and 2003

South East Asia: high emissions in 2003

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

CO WF emissions in boreal regions

van der Werf (MODIS fc, CASA model,...)

Ito and Penner (GBA 2000,...): artifact ~no fire detection at high latitude

fire counts: sampling bias < polar orbit satellite only sees a fraction of the fires

yet useful to detect fires in dense tropical forest

burnt area: integrated fire activity over 10 days

problem for both approaches: what is the fraction of pixel burnt

emission factors: “large” uncertainties (flaming/smoldering, ...)

North Asia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

J0 M M J S N J1 M M J S N J2 M M J S N J3 M M J S N

Tg

CO

/mo

nth

prioroptimizedvan der WerfIto and Penner

Canada/Alaska

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

J0 M M J S N J1 M M J S N J2 M M J S N J3 M M J S N

Tg

CO

/mo

nth

prior optimizedvan der Werf Ito and Penner

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

CO WF emissions in AfricaNorth Equatorial Africa

0

10

20

30

40

50

J0 M M J S N J1 M M J S N J2 M M J S N J3 M M J S N

Tg

CO

/mo

nth

prior optimized van der Werf Ito and Penner

South Equatorial Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

J0 M M J S N J1 M M J S N J2 M M J S N J3 M M J S N

Tg

CO

/mo

nth

prior optimized van der Werf Ito and Penner

South Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

J0 M M J S N J1 M M J S N J2 M M J S N J3 M M J S N

Tg

CO

/mo

nth

prior optimized van der Werf Ito and Penner

no inversion:

January to March 2000 & May to Aug 2001

>0o: fairly good a priori emissions

0-10oS: emissions do not decrease as fast as fire counts regional total

< 10oS : clear a priori under-estimation

27-28/10/2005 IGBP-QUEST Fire Fast Track Initiative Workshop

Conclusions

Inversion results: Results quite robust/ inversion parameters

(paper to be submitted) WF emissions are not proportional to fire

counts

Emission Modeling: Intercomparison with WF top-down inventoriesassess parameterization

Emission Inference: Requires to use several fire products AND

chemical data