1

Deriving Biomass Burning Emissions from GOES WildFire Products

P.I: Shobha KondraguntaNOAA/NESDIS/ORA

Co-I: Chris Schmidt UW-Madison

2

NWS Air Quality Forecast Model Schematic

Emissions

Anthropogenic Biogenic/Biomass Burning

Initial Conditions

Boundary Conditions

Meteorological Fields

Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model

Air Quality Forecast (O3, PM25,…)

3

Problem

• PM25 emissions from biomass burning (forest fires) are currently not included in CMAQ simulations– This leads to uncertainties in PM25 forecasts during

long range transport of forest fire smoke

Long range transport of smoke (PM25) to US from forest fires in Canada during July 16-18, 2004

4

Satellite Observations vs CMAQ PredictionsJuly 20 2004 16Z

Difference

Histograms

CMAQ model probably underestimating AOD fields due to absence of PM25 emissions from biomass burning

5

GASP-CMAQ ComparisonsJuly 20 2004 16Z

Difference

Histograms

6

Satellite vs Model (AOD Correlation)

7

Model AOD vs Model PM25

• Model internally consistent

• Minimum threshold in CMAQ AOD

8

Satellite AOD vs Model PM25

No correlation between satellite observed AOD and Model predicted PM25

Most of the observed smoke not represented in the model

9

Solution: Incorporate PM25 emissions into CMAQ

Approach 1:Scale emission climatologies with fire counts (e.g., GOCART model)

10

Solution: Incorporate PM25 emissions into CMAQ

Approach 1:Scale emission climatologies with fire counts (e.g., GOCART model)

Approach 2:Assume each fire point corresponds to 10 ha burning and emitting at a rate of 15 kg/ha/hr(e.g., HYSPLIT model)

Red 10 ug/m3

Orange 1 ug/m3

Yellow 0.1 ug/m3

Green 0.01ug/m3

11

Solution: Incorporate PM25 emissions into CMAQ

Approach 1:Scale emission climatologies with fire counts (e.g., GOCART model)

Approach 2:Assume each fire point corresponds to 10 ha burning and emitting at a rate of 15 kg/ha/hr(e.g., HYSPLIT model)

Approach 3:Derive emissions using fire points, fuel load,and emission factors informationE=BA X FL X FF X EF

Red 10 ug/m3

Orange 1 ug/m3

Yellow 0.1 ug/m3

Green 0.01ug/m3

E = Emissions FF = Fuel Fraction

BA = Burned area EF = Emissions Factors

FL = Fuel Loading

12

Approach 3 (Schematic)

Fire Counts (e.g., from GOES Vegetation

CMAQ

Fuel loadingFuel Fraction Consumed

Fuel type WeatherFuel moisture

Emissions Estimates

Emissions Factors

Static

Dynamic

Air Quality Forecast Model

13

Summary and Work Plan

• Summary– CMAQ simulations during a known biomass burning event

underestimate PM25 and AOD fields. This is due to the absence of smoke emissions in the model

– Satellite-derived PM25 emissions in near real time will be developed to be incorporated into CMAQ

• Work Plan– Collect existing static (fuel load, emission factors) data bases

from USFS and other sources– Analyze and assess the databases– Derive emissions for a known fire episode (use GOES fire products

and other satellite information for fuel moisture and so forth)– Conduct impact studies in collaboration with USFS and EPA– Transition technology to NWS

14

Acknowledgements

• CMAQ runs (Pius Lee and Jeff McQueen)• GOES AOD product (Ana Prados)• GOES re-gridded AOD product (Chieko

Kittaka)• HYSPLIT forecast map (Roland Draxler)