Introduction to SchoolSite Enrollment

ProjectionsReview of Methodology and Factors Review of Methodology and Factors Along with Hands-on ExperienceAlong with Hands-on Experience

Using SchoolSite 9.3.1Using SchoolSite 9.3.1

By David KaitzBy David Kaitz

Planning/Forecasting Basics

• Planning horizon for constructing most new facilities is usually between five to seven years

• Short to mid-range projections lose accuracy over time due to lack of reliable housing construction data, birthrates and economic conditions…

• To keep up with changes, projections should be updated annually at a minimum.

• New sites should be considered much further into the future (using “Maturation” projections)

Factors That Influence Enrollment?

• Births in the District area (BIRTH FACTORS)• Residential construction/demolition

(TRACT PHASING and STUDENT YIELD FACTORS)

• Move in/out of families in existing homes (MOBILITY)

• Drop-outs (MOBILITY)• Private school transitions (MOBILITY)

3-10 Year Projection Factors

DDP’s Projections use a “modified” cohort survival method and are based upon where the students reside:

• Current geocoded student data acts a base for future projections

• Students progress through grades each year• Future Kindergarten classes partially based upon past

birth trends• New students added at all grades based upon new

housing construction multiplied by Student Yield Factors• Percentage of students that move in or out of the District

– referred by DDP as “mobility factors”

Exercise:Creating a SchoolSite Projection

• Open ArcMap as a blank map document• Add in SchoolSite Projection Toolbar

• Push the “SchoolSite Projection” button and click on “Create New Projection”

• Choose “Create a new SchoolSite Geodatabase”

• Save the new GDB onto the C-Drive (C:\GIS\SSUC_Data\Data\SchoolSite\

Projections) and call it: projections_fall2008• Give the Projection a Name

(i.e.: Test Projection 1)

• You can also add Notes and Comments

Exercise:Creating a SchoolSite Projection

LOADING THE INDIVIDUAL DATA LAYERS AND SETTING THE PROJECTION DATE

(Make sure to change the Data Source Type to “File Geodatabase”)

SET THE PROJECTIONDATE TO COINCIDE WITH

THE DATE THE STUDENT DATAREPRESENTS!!

CRITICAL FOR LOADINGTRACT PHASING INFORMATION!!

Exercise:Creating a SchoolSite Projection

LOADING THE TRACT INFORMATION(PHASING OF THE RESIDENTIAL UNITS)

THEN SKIP THE LOADING OF AN ASSESSOR FILE

BY CLICKING ON “FINISH”!

Exercise:Creating a SchoolSite Projection

A PROJECTION IS CREATED!!!!!

BUT BEFORE WE DO THAT, LET’S GO OVER THE MAJOR FACTORS THAT

GO INTO THE SchoolSite PROJECTIONS!!!

YOU CAN NOW CLICK ON THE “PROJECTION PROPERTIES” BUTTONAND BEGIN ADJUSTING THE PROJECTIONS WITH THE DIFFERENT

FACTORS, YOU CAN PRINT OUT REPORTS OR YOU CAN EXPORT DATA

Entering Birth Data into the Projections

With a default of 1, the 2008 Kindergarten class progressesWith a default of 1, the 2008 Kindergarten class progressesthrough with no increase or decrease in class sizesthrough with no increase or decrease in class sizes

Building Off of the Exercise- Modifying the Birth

Information

• Let’s put in Birth Factor values in the columns representing all the Study Areas

Students to be Generated from New Residential Development

• Understanding residential development trends in the District is essential to forecasting students in developing areas

• Project phasing available through contacts with developers, city/county planning agencies, sales offices, local media…

• Data required for each project:• Number and type of proposed units• Location (study area)• Phasing schedule (or a start and completion date from

which an estimated schedule can be determined)

Students to be Generated from New Residential Development

Data is alreadyentered into SchoolSite

from the Tract layer

Or

The individual unitcounts can be added

and/or updated manuallyin SchoolSite by entering

new data into the cellsmarked Year 0 - 11

Projected Year 0(Existing Units -

Used for Maturation)

Units built over next 10 years (1-10)

Projected Year 12(Total of All Units 0-11)

SFD

Usually Represents

Projected Year 11(Units that could be built after 10 years)

MFA APTOther Types, like Mobile Homes

Student Yield Factors

STUDENT YIELD FACTORS MULTIPLIED BY THE APPROPRIATE HOUSING TYPE PROVIDES THE PROJECTED STUDENT COUNTS GENERATED BY NEW HOUSING

(EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED AMONG THE GRADE GROUPING)

SFD

Only the Study Areas that areassociated with the chosen school are selected and the factors entered are applied to only those study areas.

Building Off of the Exercise- Entering Student Yield Factors

• Let’s put in Student Yield values in the columns representing all the Study Areas or select a particular Attendance Area

Mobility Factors (also known as cohorts) address several key enrollment change

factors:

• Housing Resales Impact (move-in/out in areas over time)

• Entering of students from Private Schools (especially those entering high schools from K-8 facilities)

• Apartment Migration• Drop-outs - mostly for the high school grades

To obtain this data, ideally you want to focus on neighborhoods

with no new development over the last five years

(the established, built-out regions of the District)

Mobility Factors

Mobility Factors

MOBILITY FACTORS CAN BE CALCULATED BY THE INDIVIDUAL GRADE TRANSITIONS

OR THE ELEMENTARY GRADES (FOR EXAMPLE) CAN BE GROUPED TO REPRESENT THE SAME FACTOR

MOBILITY FACTORS REPRESENT AN INCREASE OR DECREASE OF STUDENTS TRANSITIONING FROM ONE GRADE TO THE NEXT

Building Off of the Exercise- Entering Mobility Factors

• Let’s put in Mobility Factor values in the columns representing all the Study Areas or you can select certain Attendance Areas (such as by each high school area)

Projection Results

Do you see the progression of students through the grades?

Other Things You Can Do with SchoolSite Projections

View the Projections by Using Different Report Summaries!!

A District-Wide SummaryA Report for Each Study Area

A Report for Each Attendance Area

All of the Data and in the SchoolSite Projection ModuleCan be Exported and the Reports Can be Printed and/or Exported

The reports can be savedin text (TXT) format

and opened in MS Excel or Word

You can send directly to a printer

or create a PDF of the report(s)

Other Things You Can Do with SchoolSite Projections

You can also actually drag your cursor and select the report text and useControl-C and Control-V to copy and paste the text into Excel or Word.

Control-C and Control-VBring Into MS Excel

Other Things You Can Do with SchoolSite Projections

Bring Into MS Word

Mapping the Growth/Decline in certain Neighborhoods!!

Other Things You Can Do with SchoolSite Projections

You can also create a Build-out or “Maturation” projection

Represents a point in time when all ofthe District’s housing units are built

Other Things You Can Do with SchoolSite Projections

You can create an unlimited number ofRedistricting Plans off of the Projections

Projected student counts

Representsstudent

data for Fall 2010

Other Things You Can Do with SchoolSite Projections

Clicking on the HELP (?) Buttons will launch DDP’s

extensive Help System for Projections

Getting Help with the

Projections

Other Related Sessions to Attend

Advanced Projections (goes into more detail about how you

calculate the projection factors)

OFFERED THURSDAY @ 8:30AM IN THE ADVENTURE B ROOM

Introduction to SchoolSiteEnrollment Projections

(Using ArcGIS 9.3.1)

QUESTIONS?