Introduction to Climate Change in the East African Savanna:Supplementary Material to Lesson 1 of the

“East Africa Climate Change Curriculum Unit”Available at http://www.eaclipse.msu.edu/teaching_materials.html

Lesson 1 by Barbara Naess.

The Eaclipse Project is supported by

National Science Foundation Award No. BCS/CNH 0709671.

http://eaclipse.msu.edu

© 2010 Michigan State University Board of Trustees

Lesson 1: Introduction to Climate Change in the East African Savanna

Supplementary Material

• how the climate is changing in East Africa

• how the savanna ecosystem is affected, and

• how researchers from the EACLIPSE project are studying climate change

In this lesson you will learn

Why is it important to learn about climate change in East Africa?

• Climate change affects all parts of the globe.• Our actions in the US affect other countries.• Greenhouse gases from the US contribute to changes in climate in

other parts of the world.

• Climate change in other parts of the world affects the US.

• When people cut forests or remove vegetation in other parts of the world, it reduces the amount of oxygen produced globally.

• We rely on resources that come from all over the world for food, medicine, raw materials, and energy.

• What we learn about climate change in East Africa can help us understand climate change elsewhere. 3

4

5

Source: NASA - http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8622

Vegetation in the World from Satellites

6

Figure above shows rainfall fluctuations between the 1900-2000 Source: http://www.unep.org/dewa/Africa/publications/aeo-1/fig2a2.htm

Source: UNEP GRID Arendal, 2002

Rainfall and Temperature Changes in Africa

Vegetation Greening Up with the Rainy Seasons: Satellite Images from 1981-2000

Source: NASA http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=10217

8Source: MATRIX, Michigan State University

Tropic of Cancer

Tropic of Capricorn

Equator

9

Source: Washington, D.C. : Central Intelligence Agency, 1986, map 800630(547147)6-86

Source: MSU Climate-Land Interaction Project: Bryan Pijanowski

EACLIPSE Project East Africa Climate, People, Livestock

& Savanna Ecosystems

Scientists and social scientists from Kenya, Tanzania, and the U.S. are working together to:

•Collect data on climate change in East Africa, including Temperatures, Rainfall, Vegetation, and Land Use•Learn how people living in the savanna make their livelihoods•Learn how people are impacted by climate change 10

EACLIPSE ProjectEast Africa Climate, People, Livestock

& Savanna EcosystemsGoals:•Understand how climate change affects the ecosystem and the people who live there

•Understand how people change their livelihoods because of climate change

•Understand how changing land use affects climate change

•Project future climate changes to help inform community and policy11

Arusha 1961-2005 (+1.1°C)Arusha mean annual temperature time series (1961 -2005)

y = 0.0248x - 29.127

R2 = 0.5132

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5

1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

Years

Tem

per

atu

re (

C)

Annual Linear Trend

Source: Tanzania Meteorological Agency

Recent Temperature Trends

12

Recent Rainfall Trends

Arusha 1961-2005Arusha annual rainfall time series (1961 -2005) y = -6.2175x + 13146

R2 = 0.0799

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

Years

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

Annual rainfall Linear Trend

Source: Tanzania Meteorological Agency

Glaciers Melting onMt. Kilimanjaro

• Higher temperatures and lower precipitation are causing the glaciers to shrink

• Glaciers are an important source of water for people, crops, livestock, and electrical power

1974 2007

14

Photo Credit: Jennifer M. OlsonPhoto Credit: David J. Campbell

DroughtA long period of dry weather that can cause crop failure.

15

Photo credit: Dwigt Sieggreen

Heavy RainsWhen it rains too much at one time, rivers can flood their banks and cause soil erosion and other damage.

16

Trends in Climate Change in East Africa

• Glaciers melting

• Warmer temperatures everywhere

• Less reliable rainfall in savanna; more rainfall on coast

• Changes in the timing of the rainy seasons

• More droughts and floods

1974 2007

17

Photo Credit: Jennifer M. OlsonPhoto Credit: David J. Campbell

How do researchers understand human-environment interaction?

18

In this unit, you will

•Learn about the different parts of the loop•Use the loop to help you understand the interactions between the different parts of the system•Use what you’ve learned to try to make some predictions about the effects of climate change in the East African savanna

Learning about the EACLIPSE research provides tools that help answer broader questions about human-environment interaction•How does human activity affect the environment?•How does climate change affect the environment?•How do changes in the environment affect people living in that environment?

Lesson 1, Part 2:How do researchers understand human-environment

interaction in the East African savanna?

In Part 2, you will learn what researchers look at to determine:

• How climate change affects vegetation

• How vegetation affects livelihood options

• How livelihoods affect land management 20

Climate Change

• Temperature

• Precipitation

• Glaciers

• Droughts

• Floods21

Photo Credit: Jennifer M. Olson

How does climate change affect savanna vegetation?

22

Climate Change affects

Savanna Vegetation• Plant species mixture• Food for livestock

Farming options• Growing season: length

and timing• Type of crops grown• Productivity of crops

23

Effect on vegetation

Wet season

Dry season

Photo Credit: Tom Smucker

Photo Credit: Tom Smucker

25

26

Effect on Forage for Livestock

Effect on Crops Grown•Timing of the growing season•Length of the growing season•What crops can be grown•How much crops will yield (productivity)

27

Savanna Vegetation• Change in species composition

– trees, bushes, grasses

• Forage for livestock

• Growing season: length and timing

• Crops grown

• Productivity28

How do changes in vegetation affect livelihood systems?

29

Livelihood Systems

30

• Livestock

• Farming

• Non-farm income

31

Livestock Production in the Savanna

Farming

32

Photo Credit: Jennifer M. Olson

Non-Farm Income

33

Livelihood Systems

Livestock

Farming

Non-farm income

Household decisions

Crops grown

Herd size and composition

Employment 34

How do changes in livelihood systems affect land management?

35

Land Management

Decisions about how to manage the land are made at different levels:

• Household• Community• Regional

Land in the savanna

can be used for:• Grazing livestock• Farming• Wildlife• Firewood and other

uses36

37

Grazing

Farming

38Photo Credit: Jennifer M. Olson

Farm in Savanna

Wildlife

39

40Photo Credit: Jennifer M. Olson

Farm in Forest

Farms Expanding into Savanna

41Photo Credit: Jennifer M. Olson

Land Management

Household

Community

Regional

• Grazing

• Farming

• Wildlife

• Other land uses42

• How do changes in land management affect the savanna vegetation?

• How do changes in savanna vegetation affect climate change? 43

44

EACLIPSE Research Questions

• How does savanna vegetation respond to a changing climate?

• What are the combined effects of land management and climate change on savanna vegetation?

• Does land management have a large enough impact on savanna vegetation to change the local or regional climate?

• How are people adapting their livelihood systems in response to climate change? 45

In this lesson, you have learned about the different parts of the savanna human-land-climate system loop and how they interact.

Now you will use what you’ve learned about the loop to try to make some predictions about the effects of climate change in the East African savanna.

As you answer the questions, keep in mind the broader questions about human-environment interaction:•How does human activity affect the environment?•How does climate change affect the environment?•How do changes in the environment affect people living in that environment?