climate change updated

Corinne Le QuéréProfessor of Climate Change Science and Policy

University of East Anglia

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/landstations/Brohan et al. J. Geophys Res. (2006)

temperature measurements on land

Photo: Xiaojun Yuan LDEO.columbia.edu

Kent et al. (2010) Wires of Climate Change

earthobservatory.nasa.gov

temperature measurements in the sea

warming of global air temperature

data source: NASA-GISS, reference period 1951-1980

+0.4

-0.4

1900 1950 2000

tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y (°

C)

Time (y)

melting of glaciers and ice caps

Qori Kalis, Peru

1978, 2002

Kilimanjaro

1993, 2000

melting of glaciers and ice caps

Trift, Suisse

1948, 2002, 2006

melting of glaciers and ice caps

data source: Dyurgerov and Meier 2005, figure from Rober A. Rohde for the Global Warming Art project

Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009

melting of the Arctic sea ice

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

adapted from IPCC 2007, data from NASA GISS, NSIDC, Church and White, Colorado University

sea level

Arctic Sept ice extent

temperature

1900 2000

Time (y)

But is it caused by human activities?

yes!

1. we understand the processes

2. global warming has fingerprints

John Tyndall’s laboratory setup 1859

IPCC 2007 Fig 9.5

Fingerprints for climate change: surface warming

volcanoes & sun only

observed

IPCC 2007 Fig 9.5

greenhouse gases,

volcanoes & sun

Fingerprints for climate change: surface warming

observed

volcanoes & sun only

But is it caused by human activities?

yes!

1. we understand the processes

2. global warming has fingerprints

3. it is above the background natural variability (caveat)

Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009, from Mann et al. 2008

But is it caused by human activities?

yes!

1. we understand the processes

2. global warming has fingerprints

3. it is above the background natural variability (caveat)

4. there are no other reasonable explanations

If it looks like a dog, and it barks like a dog, it is a dog.

my best guess

(~2°C)

(~2.5°C)

(~3°C)

(~4.5°C)

today

So what’s next?

year of my retirement

year of your retirement

(~2°C)

(~2.5°C)

(~3°C)

(~4.5°C)

today

So what’s next?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/mapping-climate-impacts

melting of the ice

(and other unknowns)

time (y)

(bill

ion)

wor

ld p

opul

atio

n

projections: Lutz et al. IIASA 2007

*

time (y)

(bill

ion)

wor

ld p

opul

atio

n

projections: Lutz et al. IIASA 2007

*

http://www.art247.com/Tshirt/15568http://www.virtual-london.com/oxford-circus-and-piccadilly-circus

http://theedwardians.blogspot.co.uk/2011/05/view-down-oxford-street-london-c1890.html

Oxford Street, London

1890 1910

19502012