climate change and climate change adaptation · kiribati argentina thailand. 26.7.2011 seite page...

26.7.2011 Seite 1

Climate change and

climate change adaptation An introduction

26.7.2011 Seite 2

As a federally owned enterprise, GIZ supports the

German Government in achieving its objectives in

the field of international cooperation for sustainable

development.

Published by

Deutsche Gesellschaft für

Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

Dag-Hammarskjöld-Weg 1-5

65760 Eschborn, Germany

T +49 61 96 79-0

F +49 61 96 79-1115

Contact

E [email protected]

I www.giz.de

GIZ Climate Protection Programme

Imprint

Responsible

Ilona Porsché, GIZ; Michael Scholze, GIZ

Authors

Jennifer Frankel-Reed, Barbara Fröde-Thierfelder, Ilona Porsché

Contributions by

Alfred Eberhardt, Mark Svendsen, Lea Herberg, Martin Baumgart,

Udo Höggel, Michael Scholze, Alexander Fröde, Nana Künkel,

members of the OECD Task Team on Climate Change and

Development Co-operation

Coordination

Ilona Porsché, Barbara Fröde-Thierfelder

Photo credits

© GIZ/Climate Protection Programme and Claudia Altmann,

Dirk Ostermeier, Florian Kopp, Georg Buchholz, Ira Olaleye,

Jörg Böthling, Manuel Hauptmann, Markus Kirchgessner,

Michael Gajo, Michael Netzhammer, Nicole Herzog, Peter Korneffel,

Richard Lord, Robert Heine, Rüdiger Behrens, Ulrich Scholz,

Ursula Meissner, Uwe Rau

Design

Ira Olaleye

Articles written by named authors do not

necessarily reflect the views of the editors.

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.giz.de/

26.7.2011 Seite 3

Overview

Climate change

Greenhouse effect

Emissions

Scenarios

Climate change impacts

The development concern

Adaptation to climate change

Definition

Costs

Operationalising adaptation

26.7.2011 Seite 4

Climate change

26.7.2011 Seite 5

Source: Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. IPCC Working Group 1. Contribution to the 4. AR

FAQ 1.3, Figure 1

26.7.2011 Seite 6

World Development report 2010. p 4

CO2 concentration over time

Oct 2010: 388 ppm

26.7.2011 Seite 7

The carbon cycle: stocks and fluxes

Source: World Development report. 2010. Focus A: The science of climate change. Adapted from IPCC. 2007

26.7.2011 Seite 8

Source: Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report 2007. IPCC. Geneva

Global greenhouse gas emissions: composition

26.7.2011 Seite 9

Source: Stern, N. 2006. The Economics of Climate Change. World Bank. 2009. Minding the Stock

Global greenhouse gas emissions by sector

26.7.2011 Seite 10

Source: Climate Change 2007. Synthesis report 2007. IPCC. Geneva, adapted by CDE

A2 – heterogeneous world, high

population, slow economic

development and technological

change

B1 – same population as A1,

rapid changes in economic

structures towards a service and

information economy,

introduction of clean and

resource efficient technologies

A1T - very intensive

development, population peak

mid century

A1T new technologies with use

of non-fossil energy sources

A1Fl fossil intensive energy

supply

Trying to look into the future

Emission scenarios

26.7.2011 Seite 11


Greenhouse gas emissions by region (2004)

26.7.2011 Seite 12


Example:

Projected temperature changes – scenario

26.7.2011 Seite 13


Example:

Projected temperature changes – spatial distribution

For 2090; reference period: 1980 – 1999

26.7.2011 Seite 14


Projected impact on human well-being

2 C

26.7.2011 Seite 15

Example:

Climate change and the development concern (1)

Source: WWF Climate Witness: www.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/problems/people_at_risk/personal_stories

Kiribati

Argentina

Thailand

http://www.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/problems/people_at_risk/personal_stories

26.7.2011 Seite 16

Example:


Source: WWF Climate Witness: www.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/problems/people_at_risk/personal_stories

KiribatiThailand

Argentina

http://www.panda.org/about_our_earth/aboutcc/problems/people_at_risk/personal_stories

26.7.2011 Seite 17

Example:


~30 – 60% of

ODA potentially

affected by

climate change

Fiji

Aid flows affected by climate risk

in red

Shaded areas indicate uncertainty.

Bangladesh Egypt Tanzania Uruguay Nepal Fiji

To

tal a

id f

low

s in

mil

lio

ns U

SD

, 1

99

8-2

000

Source: OECD, Bridge Over Troubled Waters (2005)

26.7.2011 Seite 18

Adaptation to climate change

26.7.2011 Seite 19

Defining adaptation

Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual

or expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or

exploit beneficial opportunities.

Mitigation:

reduce

emissions,

reducing

magnitude

of CC

Adaptation:

reduce

vulnerability

to CC

impacts,

reduce

losses

Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategiesSource: UNDP

Climate change

impacts

Global climate change: change in mean global

temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall,

pressure, circulation, etc.

Greenhouse

gas emissions

26.7.2011 Seite 20

measures

reaction time

external costs

measures

external costs

Reaction timeC

O2-e

mis

sio

ns

Em

issio

ns

of con

ve

ntio

na

l

air

po

llu

tants

Exte

rna

lco

st

Of

CO

2-e

mis

sio

ns

Exte

rna

lco

sto

f a

irp

ollu

tio

n

Quelle: Denk-Schrift Energie, Swiss Accademics,2007

emissions

measures

reaction time

external costs

measures

external costs

Reaction time

CO

2-e

mis

sio

ns

Em

issio

ns

of

conventional

air

polluta

nts

Exte

rna

lco

st

Of

CO

2-e

mis

sio

ns

Exte

rna

lco

sto

f a

irp

ollu

tio

n


emissions

measures

reaction time

external costs

measures

external costs

Reaction timeC

O2-e

mis

sio

ns

Em

issio

ns

of con

ve

ntio

na

l

air

po

llu

tants

Exte

rna

lco

st

Of

CO

2-e

mis

sio

ns

Exte

rna

lco

sto

f a

irp

ollu

tio

n


emissions

measures

reaction time

external costs

measures

external costs

Reaction time

CO

2-e

mis

sio

ns

Em

issio

ns

of

conventional

air

polluta

nts

Exte

rna

lco

st

Of

CO

2-e

mis

sio

ns

Exte

rna

lco

sto

f a

irp

ollu

tio

n


emissions

Adaptation – a case for urgency

Source: Denk-Schrift Energie, Swiss academics, 2007

26.7.2011 Seite 21

Costs: Estimated adaptation costs and investment

requirements in developing countries

SourceEstimate

(US$ bn/yr)

World Bank as revised by the Stern Review

(2006)4 – 37

Oxfam (2007) 8 – 33

UNFCCC (2007) 28 – 67 (in 2030)

UNDP: HDR 2007 – 08 86 (in 2016)

World Bank (2009) 75 – 100 (2010 – 2050)

26.7.2011 Seite 22

Costs: Estimates by sector

Sector

Global

(billion USD)

Share in developing

countries

Agriculture, forestry and fisheries

(production, processing, R&D)14 50%

Water supply

(water supply infrastructure)11 80%

Human health

(diarrheal disease, malnutrition

and malaria)

5 100%

Coastal zone

(beach nourishment and dykes)11 40%

Infrastructure

(new infrastructure adaptation)8-130 25%

Source: UNFCCC 2007

26.7.2011 Seite 23

Operationalising adaptation

26.7.2011 Seite 24

What are adaptation options?

Policy

Improve regulations, adjust incentive system, enhance participation of

affected communities

Infrastructure

For example: Water control – construct dykes, improve climate-resilient

infrastructure

Capacity development

Improve monitoring of sea temperature, erosion rates; improve

management skills

Research

Monitoring for policy advise, climate-resilient breeds/species

Good practices

Soil conservation, to improve agricultural yields, keep ecosystem

functions intactSource: Adapted from USAID 2007

26.7.2011 Seite 25

Who acts and how?

Public sector responsibilities: setting rules and regulations for public

assets, public services, public goods, social protections, preventing

conflict and managing migration

Individuals and communities: household preparedness, autonomous

adaptation, share losses

Private sector: integrate climate risks into project design and services

(climate-resilient investments)

International cooperation: financial responsibility, resilient ODA,

capacity development

Source: Adapted from OECD Policy Guidance

26.7.2011 Seite 26

Difference between business-as-usual

development and adaptation

A continuum:

Human development and vulnerability reduction response

capacity managing climate change risks confronting climate

change

Source: WRI 2007

26.7.2011 Seite 27

A systematic and strategic approach to adaptation

Screening

brief check if, what and where (M1)

Analysis

Detailed assessment of need for adaptation action (M3)

What are adaptation options? (M4)

Which are the priorities? (M5)

How can we track changes and learn from experiences? (M6)

Prepare implementation

Develop according capacities (M7)

Financing

Implementation

4-step

approachcan be done

at national,

sectoral, local

and project

level

26.7.2011 Seite 28

Addressing climate change

improves development effectiveness

Cost-effective: Ignoring climate risks can be costly. Prevention through

adaptation is cheaper.

Integrated: Adaptation looks at multiple stressors including climate and

non-climate, and can prevent ‘maladaptation’.

Flexible: Adaptation builds institutional and technical capacity to adjust

to risks over time as they evolve, improving flexibility.

Source: Adapted from UNDP

26.7.2011 Seite 29

Example: Comparing prevention vs.

reconstruction costs of infrastructure in the Caribbean

Infrastructure

Deepwater

Port

(Dominica)

Norman

Manley Law

School

(Jamaica)

Troumasse

Bridge

(St. Lucia)

Grand

Palazzo

Hotel

(St. Thomas)

Original project cost 57,000,000 685,000 185,000 28,000,000

Reconstruction costs after disaster 2,310,000 28,800 32,000 5,308,000

RMNH costs as % of original construction costs 11.5% 1.9% 10.8% 0.1%

RMNH costs as % of reconstruction costs 28.0% 45.0% 62.4% 0.5%

RMNH = Risk management of natural hazards approach

Amounts given in 2005 US Dollars

Source: Adapted from Bettencourt et al. 2006

climate change and climate change adaptation · kiribati argentina thailand. 26.7.2011 seite page...

Documents