Regional climate change scenarios: Products and services of the South East European Virtual Climate Change Centre

Vladimir DjurdjevicSouth East European Virtual Climate Change Centre

Political agreementUNECE “Environment for Europe”

2007

WMO RA VI RCC-Network

UNFCCC Nairobi Work Programme

WCRP (CORDEX, …)

SEEVCCC Background - Enhancing sub-regional SEE cooperation in climate related issues

BulgariaIsraelMalta

EMC, Turkey

DMCSEE, Slovenia

Under consideration

MoE-Serbia REC

Geo-Modelling RGGM

University of Belgrade Oxford

BiH FYROMMNE SRB

NMHSs, R&D inst., … MoUs

Partners

CIMA

ALB

Climate change scenarios:

•Downscaling of SINTEX-G (INGV)•Coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University – Princeton Ocean Model)

A1B: 2001-2030A1B: 2071-2100A2: 2071-2100

Climate change scenarios:

Annual temperature and precipitation change:

A1B: 2001-2030 A1B: 2071-2100 A2: 2071-2100

● Regional dynamical downscaling provides information with more details about present climate and future climate changes.

1. Subotica-Horgos2. Srem3. Banat4. Sumadija5. West Morava6. Timok7. Nisava-South Morava8. Pocerac9. Kosovo

● Example of RCM-SEEVCCC climate projections application

● Important for different impact studies especially on regional level: energy, hydrology, agriculture, environmental protection, industry,..

● Summer Drying Problem (CLAVIER project) It is well known that Climate models in region of Pannonian valley have significant BIAS, therefore it is necessary to apply more complex BIAS correction for climate change impact.

● Example: Application of Climate Projections in Vineyard Regions in Serbia

Results for 2071-2100 (A2):• growing season: beginning April → March growing degree days 1440 → 2400 duration 200 → 240 days above tolerable warmer and dryer• rest season: beginning one month later first frost date ~15days later number of frost days 90 → 50 no appearance of critical temp. <-15CClimate in present vineyard regions (<400m alt.)Shifts on ~1000m altitude

Some selected results…growing season start date growing degree days

March

April

1400

2400

1.Nov.

first autumn frost date

present climate

future climate

spring autumn

beginning ending

winter winter

first frost date

duration: 200 → 240 daysgrowing degree days: 1400 → 2400

number of frost days: 90 → 50num. of days Tmin<-15C: 3 → 0warmer, dryer!

Mountain station ~1000m altitude enters the climate regime of present vineyard regions!

growing season

Summary

Climate change scenarios:

Impact study: Changes in droughts duration, magnitude & intensity

WMO RA VI-Europe RCC Network SEEVCCC :

● Climate Data Node

● Climate Monitoring Node

● Long Range Forecast Node

Lead: KNMI/Netherlands (consortium member SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)

Lead: DWD/Germany (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)

• collecting data from the stations (monthly, 400-500 stations; main source for data KNMI-ECA&D, other climate bulletins NCDC)• mean temperature and accumulated precipitation,• temperature anomaly and precipitation percent of normal,• all available monthly/three-monthly

Lead: Météo-France & ROSHYDROMET (participate SEEVCCC/RHMS-Serbia)

Once a month ensemble run of a regional long range forecast - 7 months ahead: dynamical downscaling ECMWF 41 ensemble with RCM-SEEVCCC

South East European gridded model datasets for 1961-1990 (ready)

Climate Monitoring Node- Climate Watch Advisory for SEE -

Temperature anomaly Precipitation (percent of normal)

● available maps: for each month and for 3 months: ● mean 2m temperature, acc. precipitation, ● temperature anomaly, precipitation percent of normal (with respect to 1961-1990)

● Example of the product : September 2010

Long Range Forecast Node - Seasonal forecast for SEE -

• provides statistical summary of the atmosphere and ocean state in coming season.

● Probabilistic forecast

● RCM-SEEVCCC LRF (Long Range Forecast – Seasonal Forecast)

• model start: 16th of each month• forecast duration: 7 months (~215 days)• model resolution: ~35km atmosphere ; ~20km ocean• model domain: Euro - Mediterranean region extended toward Caspian Sea• 41 ensemble members • initial and boundary conditions: ECMWF, resolution:125km• results prepared for South East European region in form of: mean ensemble maps (mean 2m temperature, precipitation accumulation, temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly with respect to CRU data 1961-1990) for month and three months (season) diagrams (probabilistic forecast of mean monthly temperature and monthly precipitation accumulation for specific place)

• regional dynamical downscaling using fully coupled atmosphere-ocean Regional Climate Model

Probabilistic Long Range Forecast

Maps of ensemble mean

Additional: SST anomaly

● Example for LRF products

Verification of LRF downscaling will be prepared during this spring

Examples of preliminary resulat

•Seasonal forecast – ensemble long range forecast using RCM-SEEVCCC model•Regional 3 and 5 day forecast – using WFRNMM model•Dust forecast – with and without assimilation using DREAM model•Global forecast – using GNMMB model •Climate projections – for A1B and A2 scenarios using RCM-SEEVCCC model•Regional observations in BUFR format•Projects: Aral sea, Iran, Sintex-G, Hadley center climate simulations, etc.

batch request5Estimated number of fields: 1

retrieve, date=2010-11-21, time=12:00:00, stream=etad, step=12, levtype=pl, expver=1, class=ro, type=fc, param=130.128, levelist=7

Data archived in MARS (ECMWF) in SEEVCCC

RCC Highly recommended functions (example):

SEEVCCC Earth Modeling System

NCEP NMMB atmospheric model● global/regional/local

● hydrostatic/nonhydrostatic

Aerosol ↔ radiation

Aerosol ↔ cloud

DREAM Dust• Sea salt• Carbon

• Pollution

HYPROM Hydrology

model

Ocean model

Fe and P nutrients

R&D: Earth Modeling System

• Numerical Weather Prediction Model (NWPM) Works on global, regional (res. ~10km) and local scales (res.~100m) Valuable tool to perform simulations on any desirable resolution

● NCEP/NMMB – Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on B grid

• quasi-operational in SEEVCCC on global and regional scales

● Atmospheric particles

● Hydrology

• Implementation of dust, sea salt, minerals and other atmospheric particles: transport and their interactions with atmosphere and ocean (influence on cloud formation, radiation, ocean flora and fauna,…)• for now dust component (DREAM) is prepared for implementation in NMMB

• Dynamical hydrology model is developed - HYPROM simulation of hydrology cycle• HYPROM ready to be included into atmospheric driver NMMB

● Ocean• First action is to couple NMMB with ocean model necessary because of large influence of sea on climate in the region

● Examples of Earth Modeling System components’ performance

• NMMB global forecast against ECMWF analysis

• DREAM modification for purpose of volcano ash transport simulation

Eyjafjallajokull

starting date: April 14th 2010

• HYPROM discharge forecast vs. observations Moraca river – Podgorica sub-basin (2008)

Operational dust forecast: DREAM

● DREAM8: Dust Regional Atmospheric Model with 8 categories for particle sizes

DREAM8 – assim DREAM8

• model runs: 12UTC start ; +72h forecast• model resolution: 1/3 degrees (~35km)

presented: model run from June 11th 2010 12UTC

• models: DREAM8 and DREAM8-assim (assimilation using ECMWF dust aerosol analysis)

SEEVCCC/CCFAP-A in support of UNFCCC implementation GFCS

Both SEEVCCC functions, under WMO and UNFCCC, may be considered as follow-up actions of WCC-3 which are in line with further development and implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services established by the WCC-3

CCFAP-A available at: http://www.hidmet.gov.rs/CCFAP/CCFAP.pdf

R&D: Earth Modeling System

Example: Extremely wet SPI2 for February 2010, using LRF forecast (start January 1st 2010)

Climate Watch example – precipitation anomalies and extremes

RCM-SEEVCCC ensemble forecast

corrected LRFRCM-SEEVCCC

ensemble forecast

observed

New! Under development

SEE RCOF – SEECOF

RHMS/SEEVCCC together with ARSO/DMCSEE + WMO: organization and implementation SEEVCCC ready for full support with all climate products to submit to DMCSEE for their drought advisories SEECOF-IV in November (22-26); preceded by on-line SEECOF (verification of consensus fcst)

On-line SEECOF-III …. To be used in Pre-COF IV

http://www.seevccc.rs/forum

Facing Problems and Future Plans

• setting up of sub-regional teams + CB• enhancing of sub-regional data exchange (data policy issue!)• use of other existing RCMs (RegCM4, PRECIS, etc.)• collaboration in further application and improvement of Climate Watch Advisory System • Research and Development Agenda in SEE – Meeting in 11-13 April 2011• Task Team on RCOF - TT-RCOF …