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•  Introduc+on•  StrategyinAChangingSecurityEnvironment•  Pu9ngChina’sMilitaryRiseinPerspec+ve•  InDefenseofForwardDefense•  Conclusion

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•  Compe++onforaEen+onwithNATO/MiddleEast•  EastAsiawillbehighestpriorityoverthelongrun

--World’slargesteconomies

--Vitalsealanes

•  Chinahasmovedfrommanpower-intensivecon+nentalpowertomoresophis+cated“composite”powerorientedtowardsmari+medomain

•  U.S.cannolongerabletoprojectairandseapowerwithimpunitytoprotectallies/vitalsealanes

•  Canweavoidthe“Thucydidestrap?”•  Backdropofincreasedtensionsrelatedtoterritorialdisputesin

“nearseas.”

•  U.S.“rebalance”and+ghteningofalliance+es–  Philippines

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•  Globalleadership/engagementvs.retrenchment•  U.S.grandstrategysince1945:

–  Preventhos+leactorsfromdomina+ngEurasianrimland–  ProvideU.S.securityumbrellatoallies–  Provideglobalpublicgoodsi.e.controlofthecommons.

•  S+llbipar+sanconsensustotheproposi+onthat:“Thereisnosafedefensiveposi+ononthissideoftheoceans”?

•  Relianceon:–  Con+nuousglobalpresence–  Forwarddefense–  Nucleardeterrence

•  PostColdWar,thiscon+nuedtomakesenseintheabsenceofanyglobalpeercompe+tor

•  Todayreturnofgreatpowercompe++on•  Forwarddefensemuchhardertoimplement.

–  Emergenceofrevisionistthreatsinthreetheaters–  DiffusionoftechnologyanderosionofU.S.qualita+veedge

•  Hardtosetpriori+esbutAsiaranksattopinimportance–  China’semergenceasagreatpoweranditsmilitarymoderniza+on

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•  China’sreorienta+onfromcon+nentalpowertooneorientedon“seas,skies,heavens,andcyberspace”

•  Changesindoctrine,warfigh+ngconcepts,forcestructure

•  DimensionsofChina’scoercivepower•  Compe++onbetweenpowerprojec+onandA2/AD•  ThreatenU.S.largetheaterbases,combatandcombat

supportassetsaswellasinforma+onnetworks

•  Conven+onalforcesmainconcern–  U.S.maintainsnuclearsuperiority(fornow)–  U.S.s+lldominantglobally–  Muchofthechallengeis“grayzone”conflict”or“creeping

expansion

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•  Chinadevelopingabilitytolaunchcoordinatedstrikeagainstmilitarytargetswithinandperhapsbeyondfirstislandchain

•  Large,capableanddiversemissileforceplusmodernizingairforcecouldlauncha“jointan+-airraidcampaign”todegradeU.S.combatairpowerandpreventU.S.fromaidingallies

•  WouldbechallengingforPLAbutU.S.hasrela+velysmallnumberofbasesandourac+vedefensescouldbeexhaustedbysatura+onaEacks

•  Chinatarge+ngU.S.informa+onbasedvulnerabili+es–  ASAT,Cyber,EW–  Aimistounderminewilltoresistanddegradeabilitytoretaliate

butasChina’smilitarybecomesmoresophis+cateditwillfacemanysimilarvulnerabili+es

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•  China’smari+mecapabili+es–  Ini+alemphasisonasymmetricseadenialcapabili+esASCMs,ASBMs

–  Nowaccelera+ngdevelopmentoftradi+onalsurfaceandunderseawarfarecapabili+es

–  AddingsurfacecombatantsforbothliEoralwarfareaswellasnearandfarseas;aircraicarrier

–  Submarinefleetcomposedofgrowingnumberofdiesel-electricshipsthatarebothwellarmedandhardtodetectanddevelopingnuclearaEackandcruisemissilevariants

–  PLANs+lllacksproficiencyinan+-submarinewarfare,jointopera+ons,limita+onsondiesel-electricsubs.

•  BOTTOMLINE–A2/ADremainsthemainU.S.militarychallengepresentedbyChina’srise.

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•  ForwarddefensehasunderpinnedstabilitybyclearlyandcrediblysignalingU.S.willopposedomina+onbyanadversaryandaiditsallies

•  U.S.willneedtoadaptforwarddefensetomanagethenewopera+onalchallenges

•  3Op+ons:denial,punishment,rollback--Denialwouldstopadversaryfromforciblyachievingobjec+ves–tradespacefor+meinaprotractedcampaignandaEriteenemy’scombatpower--Punishmentwouldpriori+zeretalia+oninaiermathofadversaryac+on.ImposecoststoreverseaggressionthroughdirectaEacksonterritory,peripheralcampaignstodenyvaluableassets,orblockadetoundermineeconomy--Rollbackwouldrelymoreonbruteforcetodirectlyreversanadversary’sgains.Ac+ngwithalliestoretakelostterritoryanddegradeenemymilitarypowersoitnolongerrepresentsathreat

•  Notmutuallyexclusiveop+ons.U.S.mightfinditselfcombingelementsofallthree

•  DenialiscurrentlyU.S.defaultop+on

•  Punishment–distantblockadeisgenerallyregardedaschiefop+on.China’sdependenceonexportsandresourcelimita+onsgiveitintui+veappeal.WouldallowU.S.toleverageitscommandofglobalcommons.AlsomightallowU.S.toavoidescala+ngconflictbyobvia+ngneedtostriketargetsonthemainland

•  Rollbackreallyisathrowbacktomobiliza+onstrategyofWorldWarII.Wouldlogically+edtoU.S.retrenchmentoradop+onofan“off-shorebalancingapproach

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•  Denialdoesnotpreventuseofpunishmentorrollbacklater.Resor+ngtopunishment/rollbackwouldrestrictdenial

•  Notcontes+ngaggressionabini+ocouldharmU.S.interest–couldpromptadversarytotryandexecutefaitaccompliandcouldcostU.S.peace+mesupportofallies

•  Mari+meblockadewouldhavetoovercomenumberofopera+onalchallenges.AlsonotclearthatthePRCwouldseeblockadeasnon-escalatory

•  Rollbackwouldbedaun+ngforallieswhowouldhavetotryandholdadversaryun+lU.S.couldmobilize,wouldrequireU.S.torecons+tutelostmilitarycapabilitydowntheroadandwouldul+matelyrequiremanyofthesamecapabili+esnecessaryforforwarddefense

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•  Adap+ngforwarddefensetomanageriseofChina–  Geographywillhaveimpactonamountofcombatpowerboth

sidescanbringtobearespeciallyattheoutset–  U.S.combatpowerassetsbecomingincreasinglyvulnerable–  Fighterbasesandcarriersaresmallinnumber,easytolocate,

hardtodefend–  Long-rangestrikeplalormsnotsurvivableincontested

environments–  Submarineshaveshallowmagazinesandnoteasytoreloadin

contestedenvironments

•  Chinaworkingtoexploitthesevulnerabili+es•  Asymmetriescouldbepar+cularlyacuteatoutsetof

crisis

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•  StepsU.S.cantake:–  Rebalanceaircapabili+estoemphasizelong-rangestrike

plalormsandexpandunderseastrikeac+vity–  Butnotewar-figh+ngpresenceparadox:

•  Capabili+esmostusefulincontestedenvironmentsmaynotprovideasmuchvisibleassuranceforallies

•  Capabili+esthattradi+onallycontributetoassurancebyvisiblysymbolizingU.Spresenceactuallymaybemostvulnerableinactualconflict

•  HowcanU.S.bothdeterandassureatthesame+me?–  Possibleanswer–beEerintegratelandpowerintoforward

defensestrategy–  U.S.couldemulateChinaandfieldmobile,land-basedmissiles

ofitsown•  Forexample,U.S.landbasedASCMswouldenhanceU.S.capacityforseadenial,couldprovidebothdeterrenceandassurance

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