international energy outlook 2017 · international energy outlook 2017 for ... eurasia . past...

www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

International Energy Outlook 2017

forCenter for Strategic and International StudiesSeptember 14, 2017 | Washington, DC

byDr. Ian Mead, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis

• World energy consumption increases from 575 quadrillion Btu in 2015 to 736 quadrillion Btu in 2040, a 28% increase

• More than 60% of the increase in energy consumption by 2040 comes from non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India

• Even though demand in the residential and transportation sectors grows more rapidly, the industrial sector still accounts for over 50% of delivered energy consumption in 2040

• Transportation energy use rises by nearly 30% between 2015 and 2040 with almost all of the growth occurring in non-OECD regions

Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017

Key takeaways: IEO2017 Reference case

2

• Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing an average 2.3%/year between 2015 and 2040

• Fossil fuels remain dominant, supplying 77% of the world’s energy consumption in 2040

• Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel with global consumption increasing an average 1.4%/year between 2015 and 2040

• Coal use remains flat over the projection period as declines in China are largely offset by increases in India and other parts of Asia

• World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow an average 0.6%/year between 2015 and 2040, far below the 1.3%/year growth from 1990 to 2015


Key takeaways: IEO2017 Reference case (continued)

3

Overview

Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017 4

• The effects of assumptions about economic growth on energy consumption are addressed in the High and Low Economic Growth cases. World gross domestic product increases by 3.3%/year from 2015 to 2040 in the High Economic Growth case and by 2.7%/year in the Low Economic Growth case, compared with 3.0%/year in the Reference case

• The High and Low Oil Price cases address the uncertainty associated with the trajectory of world energy prices. In the Low Oil Price case, the price of North Sea Brent crude in 2016 dollars reaches $43/barrel by 2040, compared with $109/barrel in the Reference case and $226/barrel in the High Oil Price case

• Although the graphics in this presentation focus on projections through 2040, this IEO is the first projection to include model results through 2050, which are available on the IEO page of the EIA website; EIA welcomes feedback on the assumptions and results over the period of 2040–50


IEO2017 addresses the uncertainty inherent in energy projections by developing side cases focusing on overall energy consumption

5

0

200

400

600

800

1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040

Non-OECD

OECD

Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2017


World energy consumption rises 28% between 2015 and 2040 in the Reference case with most of the increase occurring in non-OECD countriesWorld energy consumptionquadrillion Btu

6

Past trend Outlook

0

100

200

300

400

500

1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040

Africa



Asia accounts for most of the increase in energy use in non-OECD regions in the Reference caseNon-OECD energy consumption by regionquadrillion Btu

7

Asia

Middle East

AmericasEurope andEurasia

Past trend Outlook

1.7

0.2

1.4

1.5

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Total OECD

Japan

OECD Europe

Canada

South Korea

United States

Mexico/Chile

Australia/New Zealand

3.81.41.6

2.42.6

3.03.93.9

4.35.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Total Non-OECD

Russia

Brazil

Other Europe/Eurasia

Other Americas

Middle East

Africa

Other Asia

China

India

Average annual percent change in real GDP by region, 2015-40

Source: EIA and Oxford Economic Model (March 2017)

Economic growth—a major driver of energy demand—is greater on average in non-OECD countries


OECD Non-OECD

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Reference ReferenceCaseEconomic Growth Economic Growth

Low LowHigh High

OECD

Non-OECD



Energy consumption varies across the High and Low Economic Growth cases

World energy consumption in three economic growth casesquadrillion Btu

9

2015 2030 2040

0255075

100125150175200225250

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

High Oil Price case

Reference case

Low Oil Price case0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Ref RefOil Price

Case

Low High

Liquids

Other

RefOil Price

Case

Low High

World oil prices in three casesreal 2016 dollars per barrel

World energy consumption in three casesquadrillion Btu


Future oil prices are another key source of uncertainty in the projections


2015 2030 2040

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Industrial

BuildingsTransportation



The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of energy consumption through 2040 in the Reference caseWorld energy consumption by end-use sectorquadrillion Btu

11

Past trend Outlook

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Petroleum and other liquids

Natural gas

Coal

RenewablesNuclear



Energy consumption increases over the projection for all fuels other than coal in the Reference case with renewables being the fastest-growing energy sourceWorld energy consumption by energy sourcequadrillion Btu

12

OutlookPast trend

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

OECD

Non-OECD



Energy-related CO2 emissions rise by 25% in the non-OECD countries, but they remain relatively flat in the OECD countriesWorld energy-related CO2 emissionsbillion metric tons

13

OutlookPast trend



Although population and per capita output continue to rise, energy and carbon intensity are projected to continue to fall in the Reference case

14

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1990 2015 20400

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 2015 20400123456789

10

1990 2015 20400

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 2015 2040

Populationmillion people

Per capita grossdomestic productthousand dollars

Carbon intensitymetric tons CO2 per billion Btu

Energy intensitythousand Btu per dollar

Non-OECD

OECD

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

UnitedStates

OECDEurope

Japan SouthKorea

Russia China India MiddleEast

Africa Brazil

Energy intensityPer capita GDP

Population



Income and population growth heavily influence energy demand, but improvements in energy intensity can offset associated increases in energy consumptionEnergy intensity, per capita GDP, and population growth in selected regionsaverage annual percent change, 2015-40

15

Liquid fuels markets


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Non-OECD Americas

Other non-OECD

OECD Asia

Non-OECD Asia

OECD Europe

OECD Americas



Petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption grows by 18% between 2015 and 2040 in the Reference case because of growth in non-OECD regionsPetroleum and other liquids consumptionmillion barrels per day

17

Past trend Outlook

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040



Sectoral shares of world liquids use hold relatively constant in the Reference case even as total consumption increasesRefined petroleum and other liquids consumption by end-use sectorquadrillion Btu

18

Transportation

Industrial

BuildingsElectricity

54%

36%

6%4%

56%

36%

5%2%

Note: Percentages express a sector’s liquids consumption compared to total use of these fuels across all end uses.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Non-OPEC crude and lease condensate

OPEC crude and lease condensate

Other liquids



Liquid fuel supplies increase from 2015 to 2040 with most of the growth occurring in OPEC crude oil and lease condensateWorld petroleum and other liquids productionmillion barrels per day

19

48

44

21

47

34

16

Past trend Outlook

0 5 10 15

Refinery gain

Natural gas plant liquids

Gas-to-liquids

Coal-to-liquids

Biofuels


Natural gas plant liquids and biofuels account for most of the other liquids supplies

World other liquids suppliesmillion barrels per day

20152030

2040

20Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO2017, September 2017

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Middle East North Africa West Africa South America

2040

2030

2015



OPEC crude oil production increases between 2015 and 2040 with most of the growth occurring in the Middle EastOPEC crude and lease condensate production by regionmillion barrels per day

21

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Russia United States Canada Brazil Kazakhstan

2015

20402030



Non-OPEC crude oil production increases less than 2% between 2015 and 2040, but growth in Russia, Canada, Brazil, and Kazakhstan increases by 24%Crude and lease condensate production million barrels per day

22

Natural gas markets


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

OECD

Non-OECD



World natural gas consumption increases by 43% from 2015 to 2040 in the Reference case largely because of demand growth in non-OECD countriesWorld natural gas consumptiontrillion cubic feet

24

Past trend Outlook

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Transportation

Electric power

Industrial

Buildings



Power and industrial sectors account for nearly 75% of the increase in natural gas consumption between 2015 and 2040 in the Reference case Natural gas consumption by sectorquadrillion Btu

25

Past trend Outlook



Middle East, the United States, and China account for more than 60% of the world increase in natural gas productionIncrease in natural gas production, 2015-40trillion cubic feet

26

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Non-OECD Americas

Canada

Other non-OECD Asia

Africa

Australia and New Zealand

Russia

China

United States

Middle East

0

10

20

30

40

2015 2030 2040 2015 2030 2040 2015 2030 2040



Shale gas and tight gas become increasingly important to gas supplies, not only for the United States, but also for China and CanadaNatural gas productiontrillion cubic feet

27

ChinaCanada

Shale gas

Other

United States

Coalbed methaneTight gas

Electricity markets


OECD and non-OECD net electricity generationtrillion kilowatthours

World electricity use by sectorquadrillion Btu


Net electricity generation in non-OECD countries increases twice as fast as in the OECD with building use being a major contributor to growth in the Reference case


0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

non-OECD

OECD

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Industrial

Residential

Commercial

Transportation

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

World electricity generation by fueltrillion kilowatthours

Share of net electricity generationpercent


In the Reference case, renewables and natural gas provide much of the growth in electricity generation with their combined share of the total rising to 57% in 2040


LiquidsNuclear

Natural gas

Coal

Renewables

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

World net electricity generation from renewable powertrillion kilowatthours percent share of renewable energy


Wind and solar dominate growth in renewables and represent two-thirds of related capacity additions by 2040


Other

GeothermalSolar

Wind

Hydropower

31

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

OECDAmericas

OECDEurope

South Korea Japan0

25

50

75

100

125

150

China Russia India Rest ofWorld

Non-OECD

Nuclear electricity generating capacitygigawatts


China accounts for two-thirds of the net increase in world installed nuclear capacity from 2015 to 2040


2015

20302040

OECD

32

Industrial and Buildings


020406080

100120140160180200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

OECD

020406080

100120140160180200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Non-OECD

Industrial energy consumption by fuelquadrillion Btu


In non-OECD regions, industrial coal consumption declines slightly as natural gas consumption increases in the Reference case


Liquids

Renewables

Electricity

Coal

Natural gas

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

OECD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Residential sector energy consumption by regionquadrillion Btu

Commercial sector energy consumption by regionquadrillion Btu


Non-OECD countries drive increases in residential and commercial energy consumption


Other non-OECD

Non-OECDAsia

OECD

0 10 20 30 40 50

20152040

OECD

0 10 20 30 40 50

Non-OECD Europe…

Russia

China

India

Middle East

Africa

Brazil

Total Non-OECD20152040

Non-OECD

Non-OECD Europe andEurasia

Residential per capita energy consumptionmillion Btu per person


Per capita residential energy consumption increases in most non-OECD regions


Transportation


0

30

60

90

120

150

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Diesel (includingbiodiesel)

Electricity

Motor gasolineand E85

Other liquids

Natural gas

Jet fuel



Motor gasoline and diesel continue to dominate the transportation fuel mix, but jet fuel, natural gas, and electricity grow fastest in the Reference caseTransportation sector delivered energy consumption by sourcequadrillion Btu

38

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

OECD

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Non-OECD

Passenger transportation energy consumptionquadrillion Btu


In non-OECD countries, light-duty vehicle energy consumption grows rapidly; in OECD countries, portion related to air transportation increases


2-3 wheelvehiclesRailBus

Light duty

Air

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

OECD

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Non-OECD

Freight transportation energy consumptionquadrillion Btu


Freight transportation energy consumption remains relatively constant in OECD countries while international marine transportation grows in non-OECD countries


Pipeline

Marine

RailHeavy heavytruckMedium heavytruckLight heavytruck

• This year’s IEO includes supplementary analyses which discuss particular areas of uncertainty and consider how changing assumptions affect results.

• Two of these articles provide alternative projections by varying assumptions.– Transportation and Electric Vehicle Penetration

– Economic Growth Rates (China and India)

• Two of these articles provide insight on how EIA considers evolving energy markets.

– Investment in Oil and Gas Resources

– Paris Climate Agreement


IEO2017 will feature four Issues in Focus articles which will be released over the next several months

41

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International Energy Statistics database | www.eia.gov/ies

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For more information

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