international energy outlook 2021 (ieo2021)

www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021)

ForCenter for Strategic and International StudiesOctober 6, 2021 | Washington, DC

ByStephen Nalley, Acting AdministratorAngelina LaRose, Assistant Administrator for Energy AnalysisU.S. Energy Information Administration

IEO2021 Highlights• If current policy and technology trends continue, global energy consumption

and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050 as a result of population and economic growth.

• Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity generation, but natural gas, coal, and increasingly batteries will be used to help meet load and support grid reliability.

• Oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.

IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 2021 2

0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2020 2030

residential0

100

200

300

400

500

2010 2020 2030

industrial

Energy use is projected to return to pre-pandemic levels quickly in non-OECD regions


Energy consumption by sectorquadrillion British thermal units

Energy consumption by sectorquadrillion British thermal units

history projections history projectionsOECD non-OECD

transportation

residentialcommercial

industrial

transportationcommercial

IEO2021 includes COVID-19 impacts; Side cases include alternative assumptions and newly expanded results• IEO2021 Reference case

– Incorporates global COVID-19 impacts on the energy sector– Uses the U.S. projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2021,

which assumes U.S. laws and regulations as of September 2020 – Assumes implementation of current laws and regulations as of May 2021,

including existing climate law; Climate Considerations in the International Energy Outlook (IEO2021)1 provides more details

– Uses Oxford Economics’ GDP projections, with a global growth rate of 2.8% per year

– Assumes 2050 world oil price reaches $95 per barrel (2020 dollars)

• Side cases explore alternative economic growth and oil price assumptions

– High and Low Economic Growth cases: 3.7% per year and 2.0% per year global GDP growth rate

– High and Low Oil Price cases: $176 per barrel and $45 per barrel 2050 world oil prices (2020 dollars)

IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 2021

1 EIA, Climate Considerations in the International Energy Outlook (IEO2021), https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/climate.php

4

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/climate.php

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.

EIA’s role is unique. By providing an unbiased view of energy markets, EIA increases transparency and promotes public understanding of important energy issues.

EIA has expanded its program in recent years to provide a growing customer base with coverage of increasingly complex and interrelated energy markets.


$0

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$350

$400

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

HighEconomicGrowthReferenceLowEconomicGrowthHighEconomicGrowthReferenceLowEconomicGrowth

OECD

non-OECD

history projections


EIA assumes a range of GDP and oil prices, which affect projected energy consumption

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Gross domestic producttrillion 2015 dollars

$0

$25

$50

$75

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$175

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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

World oil prices 2020 dollars per barrel

Low Oil Price

Reference

High Oil Price

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1,200

1,400

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

history projections

High Economic GrowthHigh Oil PriceReference

Low Oil PriceLow Economic Growth

Global energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

history projections

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400

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800

1,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

OECD

non-OECD

history projections

World energy consumptionquadrillion British thermal units

By 2050, global energy use increases nearly 50%, driven by non-OECD economic growth and population

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$0

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World gross domestic product (GDP)trillion 2015 dollars, purchasing power parity (PPP)

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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Populationbillion people

non-OECD

OECD

non-OECD

OECD

history projections history projections


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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

petroleumand other liquidsrenewables

natural gascoal

nuclear

Liquid fuels remain the largest source of primary energy in the Reference case, but renewables use grows to nearly the same level


1 Includes biofuels 2 Electricity generation from renewable sources is converted to Btu at a rate of 8,124 Btu/kWh

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0%

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2020 2050

renewables

coal

petroleumand otherliquids

natural gas

nuclear

1

Primary energy consumption by energy source, worldquadrillion British thermal units

Share of primary energy consumption by source, worldpercentage

history projections1

2

history projections

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

history projections High Economic GrowthHigh Oil PriceReferenceLow Oil PriceLow Economic Growth

World liquid fuels consumptionmillion barrels per day

Liquid fuels consumption rises from 2020 in all IEO cases

10IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 2021

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Electric vehicle stock contributes to reduced emissions and represents 31% of total passenger vehicle stock by 2050


1 Electric stock includes full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) or all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) that run on liquid fuels when batteries become depleted

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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

total passenger stock

Light-duty passenger vehicle stockbillions of passenger vehicles

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0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

history projections history projections history projections

non-OECDOECD

non-OECD

OECD

non-OECD

OECD

conventional stock electric stock1

Energy related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rise, even as carbon and energy intensity fall


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45

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OECD

Energy-related CO2 emissionsbillion metric tons

history projections

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OECD

Carbon intensitymetric tons CO2 per billion British thermal units

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OECD

Energy intensitythousand British thermal units per 2015 dollar of GDP

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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

In the electric power sector, renewable energy generation grows significantly, with support from non-intermittent sources


World net electricity generation by sourcetrillion kilowatthours

history projections

solar

coalnatural gaswindhydro-electric

nuclear

other-2

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OECD electricity generation change from 2020trillion kilowatthours

Non-OECD electricity generation change from 2020trillion kilowatthours

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2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

othersolarwind

hydroelectric

nuclear

natural gascoal

history projections

Installed electricity generating capacity, Indiagigawatts

Installed electricity generating capacity, Canadagigawatts

Growing intermittent generating capacity is supported by different technologies, depending on each region’s respective resources

15IEO2021 Release, CSIS October 6, 2021

0

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1,500

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2,500

3,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

battery storageother

solar

windhydroelectricnuclearnatural gascoal

history projections

IEO2021 Highlights• As a result of population and economic growth, if current policy and

technology trends continue, global energy consumption and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase through 2050.

• Renewables will be the primary source for new electricity demand, but natural gas and coal, and increased use of batteries will be used to help meet load and support grid reliability.



0% 2% 4% 6%0

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2050

history projections

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2050

Nearly all energy consumption growth occurs in non-OECD Asia, driven by economic growth


Americas

Asia

Europe

OECD energy consumption by regionquadrillion British thermal units

Non-OECD energy consumption by regionquadrillion British thermal units

Average annual percentage change in GDP, 2020–2050, select regionspercentage

history projections

Asia

Middle EastAfricaAmericasEurope andEurasia

Non-OECD Asia leads growth in liquid fuels consumption but has limited increases in crude oil production


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2020 2030 2040 2050

Total liquid fuels consumption by select regionsmillion barrels per day

Crude oil production by select regionsmillion barrels per day

ChinaOther non-OECD AsiaIndia

ChinaOther non-OECD AsiaIndia

Upcoming IEO2021 Issues in Focus• Energy implications of potential iron- and steel-sector decarbonization

pathways

• Effects of changes in coal supply and demand on international trade and electricity generation in India and Other non-OECD Asia

• Changes in composition of economic growth in China


international energy outlook 2021 (ieo2021)

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