interest rates at ‘8:00 a.m.’ - · pdf fileinterest rates at ‘8:00...

National Bank Financial 130 King Street West, Suite 3200, P.O. Box 21 Toronto, ON, Canada M5X 1J9 T: 416 869 8908, F: 416 869 1415 Toll free North America 1 800 636 3675 www.nbf.ca

©Bob Ewen MBA, Vice President, Portfolio Manager & Investment Advisor National Bank Financial

Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month

INTEREST RATES AT ‘8:00 A.M.’

1 YEAR 2 YEAR 5 YEAR 10 YEAR 30 YEAR

Britain .39 .40 1.01 2.15 3.34

Canada 1.03 1.09 1.45 2.09 2.65 Germany .15 .24 .89 1.94 2.59

Japan .12 .13 .34 .98 1.93

United States .14 .26 .82 1.99 3.15

PRICES AT ‘8:00 A.M.’ DAX -111 6,678 $ Canadian .9973

DJII +07 12,891 €� 1.320

S&P 500 +02 1,352 £ 1.578

Hong Kong -226 20,784 ¥ 77.68

Shanghai +04 2,533 Swiss Franc 1.091

Nikkei -55 8,947 $ U.S. Index 79.03 Brazil -1,233 64,297 Brent -1.75 116.84 India -82 17,749 Oil -1.44 98.40

TSE 300 -23 12,498 Natural Gas +.04 2.51

TSX Banks +.06 $22.22 Copper -6.65 391.20

TSX Golds -.22 $23.53 Gold -27.60 1,713.60

TSX Metals -.16 $20.55 Silver -.52 33.40

TSX Oils -.05 $17.70 CRB Index -2.41 313.09

Those who are too smart to engage in politics are

punished by being governed by those who are dumber. Plato

Friday February 10, 2012

http://www.nbf.ca


2

Subscription: $100.00 a month

Friday, February 10, 2012 Friday, February 10, 2012 Friday, February 10, 2012 Friday, February 10, 2012



Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month

I have prepared this commentary /to give you my thoughts on various investment alternatives and considerations which may be relevant to your portfolio. This commentary reflects my opinions alone, and may not reflect the views of National Bank Financial Group. In expressing these opinions, I bring my best judgment and professional experience from the perspective of someone who surveys a broad range of investments. Therefore this report should be viewed as a reflection of my informed opinions rather than analyses produced by the Research Department of National Bank Financial.”

FROM CLIENTS Hi Bob:

1 The sad truth is there is currently no shingles vaccine available. I have been on a waiting list for over three months!

2 In today’s article on natural gas, one very critical piece of information was omitted. Many shale gas drillers are only interested in producing natural gas liquids so they can mix it with sour oil to produce West Texas crude. The natural gas is often just an unwanted by-product with zero cost that is dumped into the nearest gas pipeline! This state of affairs is driven by the 40:1 difference between oil and gas prices. This behooves any sane gas producer to shut-in its expensive gas production.

COMMENT: see below.


3






Bob: I just got the shingles vaccine today. There is about a one month waiting period for it and it is frozen. You have to have it injected within 30 minutes of removing it from the ice pack. It has about a 90 per cent probability to work. People should also get a prescription to hold at least ten anti-virile tablets such as Famciclovir 250 mg in case the vaccine doesn't work. Shingles only affect those people who have had chicken pox in their youth as the virus lays dormant until one is affected by high stress. Young people have been vaccinated for years for chicken pox so I doubt today's young people will be in any danger from shingles. Shingles, as stated in your email (9 Feb), is a very dangerous condition. People who've had chicken pox SHOULD get the vaccine (probably most boomers). Don't put it off - it's not worth the risk. I've had it twice and was lucky.

COMMENT: this client is a MHS Classmate. He had his 2nd shingles attack a few years ago around the eyes. A naturopath cleared it up in a few days.

Bob, I checked with my doctor after the last go-around on shingles. He said that the vaccine works only in 50% or less of the cases. I'd be interested in hearing from any of your clients what other doctors have said. The news about the possible effects on eyesight was new to me. Here's a site with more on the subject: http://www.everydayhealth.com/shingles/vision-problems.aspx . Thanks,

COMMENT: 50% or 90% is still worth the bother. I was in discomfort 8 years

http://www.everydayhealth.com/shingles/vision-problems.aspx


4






ago as I had shingles along the belt line on my front right side. After a couple of weeks Carmen wondered what all the fuss was about; so I pulled up my shirt. She reeled back inn shock at the sight of the open red wounds.

Thanks for the e-mail today. I do remember the references to the Gold Fiddle in 2010. I'm also a reader of Ed Steer's Gold and Silver daily, J.S. Mineset etc. (gold bugs). They often refer to gov't intervention (Banks) to paint charts etc... “There are no more markets just interventions" sort of thing. I realize that they sit on one end of a spectrum. They assume that sooner or later the market will win and supply /demand/money printing/ QE to infinity will blow up in the gov't face and Gold and Silver will rocket in a once in a lifetime opportunity. I have intellectually bought into this but today it occurred to me after reading your e-mail that this may not be so. Perhaps the ongoing fiddle will be able to mute the whole process. Is this you were referring to in your comments?

COMMENT: What we called the “Fiddle” or the “Gold Fiddle” for many years should have been called the “Great Swindle”. In Notley Chart 1 below we show Gold on a Quarterly basis from the end of the last Secular Bull to the current situation. We indicate the TOP in mauve which was the beginning of the Secular Bear in 1981. In blue we have and A-B-C pattern with Wave-A shown subdivided (a-b-c) in yellow. At Wave-C in blue in 1993 the ‘fun’ began. That in our opinion was the end of the Secular Bear and the start of the new Secular Bull. The 1995 recovery


5






Notley Chart 1: Gold 140 Quarters

from $327 to $405 all but confirmed this. Then something ‘funny’ happened – Gold got seriously weak and fell from $405 to $252! Most Elliott Wave analysts call these moves Waves D and E which shown in mauve. To be clear: most Elliott Wave analysts see the Golden Bear from 1981 to 1999 ending at Wave-e in mauve which they see as finishing Waves A-B-C-D-E or in some cases a bigger A-B-C where Wave-C lasted from B in blue in 1988 to 1999. Don’t fret if this is unclear; the point is the Bear seemed to be artificially extended from 1992 to 1999 and this is justified by many analysts using a version of Elliott Wave and as well as Notley’s system.


6






There was ‘open unashamed co-ordinated manipulation’ by several Banks, Gummerments, Bullion dealers, some Companies (Barrick) and the FED. Major players were short Gold. Gummerments had lent their Gold Reserves to Bullion Dealers who could not return it if prices rose. We wrote about it in real time and many clients found it amusing. By 1998 they saw the light. If there was any doubt whatsoever, Britain unashamedly took action to suppress Gold as it surged from $250+ towards $350. Britain announced it would sell its Gold Reserves in quarterly ‘auctions’ by pre-announcing the sales which guaranteed low prices (‘to help 3rd world countries)! They gave their Gold away below $400. The 3 people empowered to make the decision (Governor of the Bank of England, Chancellor of the Exchequer or the P.M.) denied making it. We now know it was Gordon Brown the Chancellor of the Exchequer. This ‘blunder’ did not stop him from becoming Prime Minister; it may have sealed the deal. Higher Gold would bankrupt major players including Banks and would have blown the lid off the ‘no inflation’ façade. The ‘Clinton Prosperity’ and FedHead Green$pan’s money printing to beat deflation was dependent on the perceptions of ‘no inflation’ as ‘evidenced’ by $250 Gold…. As discussed last month, front end Boomers believed 8% - 12% returns were reasonable. Their early retirements were fueled by the ‘Clinton Prosperity’ type returns seen from 1995 to 2000 and was supported by low inflation as evidenced by low Gold prices. Instead we suffered a sideways market with (unreported) inflation as a reaction to the policies of the latter 1990s. With Gold, our concern is that by using 1999, or in Notley’s case 2001 as the start of the Secular Bull for Gold we could be mislead. This is more apparent in Silver which we will examine Monday.


7






HAVE A GREAT DAY AND WEEKEND The views expressed are the writer’s and do not necessarily reflect the views of National Bank Financial. Estimates and projections made herein are our own or obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable. No guarantee is made as to their accuracy or completeness. National Bank Financial and its officers may have a position in the securities mentioned herein, and may make purchases or sales from time to time. The reader is cautioned and urged to obtain reliable professional advice before taking any actions as a result of reading this document. Neither National Bank financial nor Bob Ewen authorize, or take responsibility for, the retransmission, in whole or in part, of the enclosed information without the express written permission of National Bank Financial and Bob Ewen. Neither National Bank Financial nor Bob Ewen accepts any responsibility for any actions taken by the intended recipient of this document or by anyone else who receives this document either directly or indirectly. National Bank Financial is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. National Bank of Canada is a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (NA: TSX)


8

Friday, February 10, 2012 Friday, February 10, 2012 Friday, February 10, 2012 Friday, February 10, 2012 Friday, February 10, 2012 Friday, February 10, 2012 Friday, February 10, 2012 Friday, February 10, 2012

Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month Subscription: $100.00 a month

interest rates at ‘8:00 a.m.’ - · pdf fileinterest rates at ‘8:00...

Documents