integration of offshore wind generation in future electricity market s
DESCRIPTION
Integration of offshore wind generation in future electricity market s Marian Klobasa, Fabio Genoese Fraunhofer Institute for System und Innovation Research European Offshore Wind Conference Stockholm, 16th September 2009. Alpha ventus Pressebild, July 2009. Agenda. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
1
Integration of offshore wind generation in future electricity markets
Marian Klobasa, Fabio Genoese
Fraunhofer Institute for System und Innovation Research
European Offshore Wind Conference
Stockholm, 16th September 2009Alpha ventus Pressebild, July 2009
2
Agenda
Characteristic of wind power generation in the North Sea
Fullload hours, periods with high and low wind generation
Methodological approach to analyse impacts on electricity markets
Future spot market prices affected by offshore generation
Influence of grid infrastructure and restrictions
Conclusion
3
Main assumptions for wind time series generation
Wind speed data
Time series generated from weather data (provided by DWD, 180 locations)
Distribution of installed onshore capacity according to DENA study
Adoption of improved power curves and increased hub heights makes it necessary to use wind speed data (data used from 1998, 2000 and 2001)
Power curves for wind turbines
Offshore: Enercon E 126, REPower 5M, Vestas V90 Offshore
Onshore: Enercon E66, E70, E82, E112, REPower 5M
Diffusion of modern turbine types
Increase of typical hub height from 65 m to around 80 m (limited by building-authority approval)
4
Wind energy generation pattern in winter time
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8
Installed capacity
in GW
North Sea: 25,1
Onshore: 18,5
North-West: 8,5
5
Wind energy generation pattern in summer time
Week 1Week 2Week 3 Week 4 Week 5Week 6Week 7 Week 8
Installed capacity
in GW
North Sea: 25,1
Onshore: 18,5
North-West: 8,5
6
Fullload hours of wind power generation
Increase of full load hoursdue to technology improvement, increased hub
heights and offshore installations
7
Simulation of electricity markets with PowerACE
Agent-based power market model
Hourly time resolution Actors in the electricity sector
are simulated as agents
Main module: PowerACE Spot Market
Hourly auctions Uniform clearing price
auction Resembles EEX
Bidding process Variable costs Strategic costs
Focus on the German market
CO2 Market
0
10
20
30
40
50
hour
Spotmarket
0
10
20
30
40
50
hour
Services
Industry+ Others
Household
Supplier
Contracts
TransportRenewable Agents
load
bids
Gridoperator-Trader
support
load
support
Generator
Supply Trader
merit-order
offer
bid
Primary Reserve Balancing Trader
offer
Gridoperator
bids
Plant DB
plant data
REG-Load DB
REG-Capacity DB
Investment Planner
new plant
offer
CO2 Trader
merit-order
offer
bid
CO2TraderSaving Potential
Industry DB
Load DB
Demand DB
Load-Prognosis
Investment Planner
new plant
offer
bid
co2 balance
load profiles
demand+equipment(HH)
Agents
data
Flows
Database
Markets
Demand
Renewables
Utilities
LegendSecondary Reserve
Minute Reserve
PumpStorageDB
PumpStorageTrader
offer bid
CO2 Market
0
10
20
30
40
50
hour
CO2 Market
0
10
20
30
40
50
hour
Spotmarket
0
10
20
30
40
50
hour
Services
Industry+ Others
Household
Supplier
Contracts
TransportRenewable Agents
load
bids
Gridoperator-Trader
support
load
support
Generator
Supply Trader
merit-order
offer
bid
Primary Reserve Balancing Trader
offer
Gridoperator
bids
Plant DB
plant data
REG-Load DB
REG-Capacity DB
Investment Planner
new plant
offer
CO2 Trader
merit-order
offer
bid
CO2TraderSaving Potential
Industry DB
Load DB
Demand DB
Load-Prognosis
Investment Planner
new plant
offer
bid
co2 balance
load profiles
demand+equipment(HH)
Agents
data
Flows
Database
Markets
Demand
Renewables
Utilities
LegendSecondary Reserve
Minute Reserve
PumpStorageDB
PumpStorageTrader
offer bid
8
Main assumptions for future electricity system
Scenario assumptions:
Energy carrier prices: [WEO 2008]
Electricity demand: [EWI/Prognos 2005]
RES-E targets: 45% until 2030
Emission reduction target: -37% until 2030
2005 2010 2020 2030Crude Oil Price (€/MWh) 26 47 52 58Natural Gas Price (€/MWh) 18 28 32 36Hard Coal Price (€/MWh) 6 11 11 10Electricity Demand (TWh/a) 547 524 521 522
Electricity generation mix:
Increasing share of gas-fired power plants
Decreasing share of lignite-fired and coal-fired power plants
Nuclear phase-out in 2020
Installed Wind Power (GW) 2010 2020 2030NW Zone + North Sea 9.4 28.1 33.6Residual Germany 14.9 16.6 18.5
9
Impacts of wind generation on electricity prices
Price Development & Emissions
Average electricity price („base“) increases with years due to increasing fuel prices.
Peak[1] price is rising slightly faster than the off-peak[2] price which leads to an increasing spread between peak and off-peak.
[1]: peak: 8-20 (week days)
[2]: off-peak: 20-8 (week days) + weekends
The moderate emission reduction targets are achieved both by an increasing share of renewables to the generation mix and a fuel switch to gas which is favored by the moderate gas price.
The specific emissions reach a value of roughly 330 g/kWh in 2030 (2008: 580 g/kWh).
100%: Base 2010
10
Impacts of wind generation on electricity prices
Typical Price Variations
The graphs show the price variation around the average price of the corresponding year.
2010:
relatively low share of renewables: renewable load never exceeds system load
price variation: mostly around ±50%
2030:
higher contribution of renewables: renewable load exceeds system load in some hours
more frequent variations
20302010
11
Influences of grid infrastructure and restrictions Heavy influence expected in NW part of Germany (→
connection of North Sea wind parks)
Market simulation with two zones, limited transmission capacity between the zones
Definition of the zones similar to the Dena grid study
North-Western Zone (Dena: 2)
Residual Germany (Dena: 1,3,4,5,6)
Export capacity of NW zone: ~12 GW
S600 MVA
DK2260 MVA
NL2626 MVA
Münster987 MVA Bielefeld
3448 MVA
Hannover3160 MVA
Zone NWLoad,
Renewables, Thermal
Generation
12
Impacts of grid restrictions on electricity prices
No Grid Restrictions Grid Restrictions: NW Zone
Hours With Negative Residual Load 2010 2020 2030Grid Restrictions / NW Zone 0 1811 2717No Grid Restrictions 0 19 115
Price Level 2010 2020 2030MIN 0% 0% 0%MAX 259% 289% 364%AVG 100% 110% 136%
Price Level 2010 2020 2030MIN 0% 0% 0%MAX 259% 289% 364%AVG 100% 127% 168%
100%: AVG 2010
13
Conclusions Offshore wind generation
3800 fullload hours can be achieved in the North Sea, fullload hours of total wind generation increase from less than 2000 h to almost 3000 h
In winter time longer periods of several days with high wind feed-in. In summer time limited wind feed-in, but periods with high feed-in from offshore locations can occur.
Simulation of German spot market:
high share of renewables, moderate increase of energy carrier prices, increasing share of gas-fired power plants, moderate CO2-prices
Increasing spot market price and increasing price spread between peak and off-peak time
Negative residual demand in 2020 and 2030
~ 100 hours without considering grid restrictions in Germany
~ 2700 hours when considering grid restrictions in Germany
Grid restrictions in North-West Germany
Strong need for grid extensions up to 10 GW out of North-Western Zone
Value of wind feed-in is limited in the North-Western Zone without grid extensions
Further need for political support mechanism for offshore development
Average market prices could be to low to secure investment in offshore locations
Furthermore value of wind is below average market price due to the merit-order effect
14
Contact and further information
Dr. Marian KlobasaFraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research,
KarlsruheContact:
www.wind-last.de