inside the rice (short) no. 055 8 november 2013 the rice (short) no. 055 8 november 2013 gaotrade...

14
INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013 GAOTRADE CO. LTD GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 1 E.U. Rice Ex Mill Bulk USD /MT Euro /Mt $ /Mt Euro /Mt $/Mt Euro/Mt 12 Dec 2011 12 Dec 2011 13 Jan 2013 13 Jan 2013 23 Sept 2013 23 Sept 2013 Originario Round Japonica 705 560 665 Medium Japonica Lido/ Flipper 6 mm 760 560 775 Roma Lg jap 7,18 mm 640 NA Baldo LG Jap 7,35 mm 880 680 NA Arborio LG japonica Top 7,37 mm 1070 700 NA INDICA LG Milled 7,61 mm 630 570 650 Parboiled Baldo LG Jap 980 680 NA Parboiled INDICA Lg 720 630 NA Broken ¾ to more than ½ grain 380 365 Broken ½ grain 370 355 Rice Bran Row 150 Broken less ¼ sortex 300 Egyptian White Medium 5 % Fob FCL Alexandria 730 Egyptian Broken grade zero C and F in FCL Rtrdm 380 EU import Tax on Milled Broken Euro/T 65 EU import tax on Brown any rice Euro/T 30 Spain Blanco Japonica MG Sevilla NA Russian Rice Future groats G 1 -8 % Br WM Ex Mill Krasn Bulk 623 468 NA Soft Wheat FOB Rouen Soft Wheat FOB Marseille 246.50 202 196 Yellow Maize ex Bordeaux 237.00 218 162 Durum Wheat France South port PLN FOB 285.00 240 THAILAND FOB 50 Kg PP bags USD/ MT EURO /MT $ /Mt Euro/ Mt $ Euro Thailand milled Long Grain Indica New Crop Thai White Rice 100% B 600 560 420 Thai White Rice 5% 585 550 410 Thai OLD CROP White Rice 5 % Na NA Thai White Rice 10% 580 545 405 Thai White Rice 15% 575 540 400 Thai White Rice 25% 570 535 395 100 Broken A1 Super 545 525 375 Fragrant A1 Super 540 560 470 Parboiled milled rice 100% Whole long grain Sortexed 590 575 445 Hom Mali 92% Purity or Jasmine Rice Equiv 5% 1075 1080 NA PAKISTAN FOB Stowed 50 Kg Karachi or In Container FCL 20 “ $/M T EURO /MT USD/MT EURO/ MT $ Euro Irri 6 Milled WRLG IRRI 6 with 5 % Broken sortexed DP 435 390 WRLG IRRI 6 with 10 % Brkn WM 425 370

Upload: lamdat

Post on 13-Mar-2018

216 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

TRANSCRIPT

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 1

E.U. Rice Ex Mill Bulk

USD

/MT

Euro

/Mt

$ /Mt Euro

/Mt

$/Mt Euro/Mt

12

Dec

2011

12 Dec

2011

13

Jan 2013

13

Jan 2013

23 Sept

2013

23 Sept

2013

Originario Round Japonica 705 560 665

Medium Japonica Lido/ Flipper 6 mm 760 560 775

Roma Lg jap 7,18 mm 640 NA

Baldo LG Jap 7,35 mm 880 680 NA

Arborio LG japonica Top 7,37 mm 1070 700 NA

INDICA LG Milled 7,61 mm 630 570 650

Parboiled Baldo LG Jap 980 680 NA

Parboiled INDICA Lg 720 630 NA

Broken ¾ to more than ½ grain 380 365

Broken ½ grain 370 355

Rice Bran Row 150

Broken less ¼ sortex 300

Egyptian White Medium 5 % Fob FCL Alexandria 730

Egyptian Broken grade zero C and F in FCL Rtrdm 380

EU import Tax on Milled Broken Euro/T 65

EU import tax on Brown any rice Euro/T 30

Spain Blanco Japonica MG Sevilla NA

Russian Rice Future groats G 1 -8 % Br WM

Ex Mill Krasn Bulk

623 468 NA

Soft Wheat FOB Rouen Soft Wheat FOB Marseille

246.50

202 196

Yellow Maize ex Bordeaux 237.00 218 162

Durum Wheat France South port PLN FOB 285.00 240

THAILAND FOB 50 Kg PP bags USD/ MT

EURO/MT

$ /Mt Euro/

Mt $ Euro

Thailand milled Long Grain Indica New Crop

Thai White Rice 100% B 600 560 420

Thai White Rice 5% 585 550 410

Thai OLD CROP White Rice 5 % Na NA

Thai White Rice 10% 580 545 405

Thai White Rice 15% 575 540 400

Thai White Rice 25% 570 535 395

100 Broken A1 Super 545 525 375

Fragrant A1 Super 540 560 470

Parboiled milled rice 100% Whole long grain Sortexed

590 575

445

Hom Mali 92% Purity or Jasmine Rice Equiv 5% 1075 1080 NA

PAKISTAN FOB Stowed 50 Kg Karachi or In

Container FCL 20 “

$/MT

EURO/MT

USD/MT EURO/

MT $ Euro

Irri 6 Milled

WRLG IRRI 6 with 5 % Broken sortexed DP 435 390

WRLG IRRI 6 with 10 % Brkn WM 425 370

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 2

WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn W Milled 394 360

WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn Standard 380 350

WR LG 25 max standard Milling 395 372 340

100% Broken Sortex Double polished 365 350 330-335

PK 386 Long Grain 2 % Na

Super Basmati Milled 2 % Old Crop 990 NA

IRRI 9 Milled 2 % 720 715

Parboiled LG 5 % Broken max SRTXD 440 425

Small Broken w m d sortexed 1,7 -2,5 mm Human consumption

NA

BASMATI D 98 with 2 % broken na

INDIA FOB Stowed 50 kg If Container premium $ 15/Mt to Vizag

$ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt $ Euro

Parboiled 106 Long grain milled 5 Srtxd Kandla 510

White Milled Rice LG PR 106 Well Milled Sortexed DP 5

Kandla 520

WR LG PR 106 WM 5% Br Standard Kandla 500

WRLG PR 106 25 % Br R W M Kandla 440

Broken sortexed super PR 106 Kandla NA

W R IR 64 Long grain 5% DP sortex Kakinada 435 435 405

W R IR 64 Long grain 5% Standard WM 420 395

Par Boiled IR 64 Sortex Well milled 5 % Kakinada 428 385

W R IR 64 L G 15 % well milled

WR IR 64 long grain 25 % well milled 410 395

BROWN PARBOILED SORTEXED LG 6 mm 400 375

BROWN LG IR 64 /IR 38 SRTXD LG 6 mm 390 395

Super Broken Sortex D P water polished Kernel more than 1,5 MM IR 64

325

285

Broken less than 1.5 mm well milled human consumption

305

270

1121 PUSA BASMATI 2 % ex Mill Rps/100 Haryana Punjab

Pure Basmati milled 2 % ex Mill Rps/100 810

Medium Grain Swarna Sortexed 5% DP 5.5 mm max

Kakinada 395 Nov

crop

Med G Swarna 15 % broken Indica WM Kakinada NA

Med G Swarna 25 % Broken Standard milling RWM

Kakinada 370 Nov crop

345

M Grain PB SWARNA SRTX WM 5 395 NA

VIETNAM FOB 50 kg traditional vessel

$ EURO $ /Mt

Euro/ Mt

$/Mt

LG Milled 5% WM DP ¾ basis 495 415 400

10% Br basis 3/4 WM 490 405 395

15% Br basis 2/3 WM 475 395 385

LG Reasonably Mill 25 % Br basis ½ grain 460 380 370

A1 Super broken Well Milled 425 355 335

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 3

Jasmine Broken Pure sortex DP 400 420

LG Fragrant Rice 5 purity 90% W M DP 5% 760 780

LG Jasmine 90 % purity 5 WM D Polished 600 570

MERCOSUR $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt $ Euro

Mercosur rice Long Grain Milled

Uruguay Long Grain Sortexed 5% broken Bagged FOB

565 625

600

Uruguay PB Brown LG in Bulk in FCL 525 NA

Uruguay Brown Long Grain FOB bulk FCL Na NA

Brazil LG 5 % broken bulk FAS + empty bag on board of vessel $ 10 /t

560 Na

Brazil LG 20 % Broken Fas +empty bags On board $ 10/mt

Na

Uruguay Parboiled 5 Sortexed bagged Fob 595 575 570

Brazil Parboiled 5 Sortexed bulk FAS empty bags $ 10/ Mt

555 565

550

São Paolo Milled LG Tipo 1 wholesaler 30 Kg bags Local Market

843 650-700

Uruguay broken 100 % Srtx FOB Bagged NA 340

Brazilian Broken FAS Bulk RGS port Bulk 330 N Crop 320

PADDY ex mill bulk cash 58 whole grain min

$ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt $ Euro

Italy Long Grain Indica Paddy 385 285 392 295 260

Brazil Long Grain Indica RGSul 286 343 257 299 223

Italy Medium Grain Japonica 472 350 379 285 320

Italy Arborio Paddy LG Japonica 330 500

Italy Round Grain

396 416

285

270

Russian Round Grain Japonica Yield 50 whole grain ex farm

10500 355 300

330

Indian Long Grain Indica ex farm Minimum Support Government 2013-14

1310 211

Free Market average North to South 1400 233

Egypt Paddy Med/LG Japonica ex farm 410 300 NA

Thai Long Grain Indica Gov Price Bath/Mt Main Crop Second crop

15000 13000

479

415

Thai Hom Mali Paddy Gov Price Bath/Mt Main Crop

20000

639

China Medium Grain Japonica Govern Price Paddy

444 444

China early crop LG Future Paddy 386 432 436

Vietnam LG Indica ex Mekong Farm dry Paddy

300 220

215 210

Indonesian paddy Indica LG 404

CAMBODIA $ EURO $

Euro/ Mt

$ Euro

Cambodia Milled Long Grain FOB bulk

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 4

Jasmine Top quality Pk Malis 5 pct FOB 920 935 925

Milled rice Long Grain Broken 5 % 505 460

Fragrant top Quality KDM 5 % 860

Broken 100 % Well milled FOB NA

USA Ex mill bulk $ $c/CWT $/MT $ $/Mt

LG MILLED N 2 –Broken 4 % TEXAS 595 27.5 31.50

LG MILLED N 2 – Broken 4 % Louisiana 27 28.00

MEDIUM Californian 1 827 34 749 32.00

SHORT GRAIN CALIF n 1 34.5 33.50

Parboiled L G L/Tx/Ark average 33 727 34.50

Broken Second Heads LG 374 19.5 18.50

Broken Second Heads Medium Grain Cal 329 24.5 24.00

Brewers Broken average 17 17.50

Brewers Broken California Medium 18.5 19.00

Rice Bran ex mill on truck Louisiana USD /Mt 200 185

2 Sept

2012

27 Jan

2013

15

August

2013

4 October

2013

8 November

2013

Corn USA Future 8.11 7.20 4.73 4.36 4.25

Wheat Soft USA

future

8.73 7.70 6..31 6.88 6.59

Paddy Rice Future 15.01 15.26 15..55 14.97

Nov

15.23

Euro /USD 1.3469 1.3305 1.3600 1.3497

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 5

USA Export trend

000 mt

2013-14 Up to

September

2012-13 Up to

September

2012-13 12 months

2011-12 12 months

2010-12 12 months

Total Exports 542 320 3426 3111 3700

Mexico 152 181 749 803 848

Haiti 60 74 342 233 248

Venezuela 0 33 262 94 149

THAILAND

Thai officials estimate stocks at 17 million or 18 million tons, or almost double the export volumes of a

normal year. The government has estimated it suffered losses of 136 billion baht ($4.33 billion) from the

scheme in 2011/12. Reserves in Thailand will increase by 24% to 15.5 million tonnes in 2013-2014, estimated

the US Department of Agriculture.

The rice subsidy program, running between October 2013 and September 2014, is expected to need around

270 billion baht, or $8.6 billion, to buy 11 million tons of rice.

According to the association, September’s rice exports stood at about 501,600 tons, while the figure in the

first 9 months of 2013 indicated a 1.8% decline, with only 4.6 million tons of rice exported.

The association said the decline was due to a drop in exports of Jasmine rice and steamed rice. However, the

association reported that prices of Thai rice have recently become more competitive, falling to the lowest level

in 3 years which would be favorable to October’s rice exports.

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 6

24th

October: Over 20 rice traders are keen to bid on the government’s new batch of 140,000 tons of premium

quality rice, according to the Commerce Ministry. Internal Trade Department director general, said the

Ministry will auction 100,000 tons of 5 % white rice and 30,000-40,000 tons of 100% Hom Mali rice, 2nd

grade, through the Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand. He said the ministry would release one million

tons of rice in five auctions through AFET until the middle of next year.

G TO G

Following talks between Chinese and Thai leaders, said he would discuss with the Chinese government its

reported plan to purchase 1 million tons of rice from Thailand. Under the G2G contract, the Thai government

would supply 1 million tons of rice to China's central government every year for the next 5 years. The pact

should be in force in early 2014.

The minister said the rice-selling contract with the Chinese government would be based on market price,

following discussions on detail and price for each shipment.

Asked if the government would face huge losses if it was agreed to export the rice at market prices,

Niwatthumrong said such deals would be acceptable as the government has created a pledging scheme to help

farmers. However, he is confident the losses would not be more than Bt100 billion a year.

Second is the pact between Thai Rice Exporters Association and the Chinese-owned enterprise COFFCO, in

which Thai exporters will supply 1 million tons of rice to COFFCO within 5 years (200,000 tons each year).

Third is a pact between the Thai government and China's Hei Long Jiang Province to supply 1.2 million tons

of rice to the province.

Niwatthumrong added that Thailand would have the potential to supply more rice or other farm crops to China

under the barter trade contract.

Meanwhile, PM's Office Minister and Deputy Agriculture Minister who is known as "Mr Rice", said he would

be drawing up short and long term plans to manage rice production and trading. Under his plan, the

government would seek new markets, such as the United States and the Middle East, while it will increase

more shipments to China as one of the largest rice-consuming markets in the world.

The government will also encourage more rice processing to reduce stockpiles. Although rice is not a fuel

crop, it can produce many value-added products such as rice bran oil, and cosmetics.

Varathep said that rice is an agricultural crop and it is difficult to predict its price and output as it can be

influenced by climate and global demand. He accepted that the rice-pledging scheme had distorted the market

price, but it had not destroyed the production mechanism. Varathep said that following disbursements by the

Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives, farmers have lowered their debt.

There were 3 millers and 2 exporters participating in the recent government tender on October 25, 2013 using

the Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand (AFET).

The tender consisted of:

109,755 metric tons of 5% grade white rice long grain Hom Mali

30,669 metric tons of 100% B grade fragrant rice long grain

obtained from the government’s 2012/13 pledging program rice stocks.

The bids were 12 to 18% below the current price for white rice and 17 to 19% below fragrant rice prices for

deliveries during December 2013 through February 2014.

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 7

The result of the tender has not been finalized. The government will continue to conduct its tenders via the

AFET every month. It also announced that new public tenders, particularly for broken white rice, will take

place next month.

Rice Export Update

Unofficial rice exports (excluding premium white rice and fragrant rice) for October 21-27, 2013 totaled

47,848 metric tons, down 7,777 metric tons from previous week, and down 14,209 metric tons from the 4

weeks moving average of 62,057 metric tons.

Exports of white and parboiled rice from January 1 through October 27, 2013 totaled 2,734,302 metric tons,

down 33% from 4,091,742 metric tons in the same period last year mainly due to a reduction in parboiled rice

exports.

Meanwhile, exports of white and fragrant rice increased approximately 10% from the same period last year

due to the sales of the government’s rice stocks.

Bangkok Total rice exports (including premium white rice and fragrant rice) from January 1 through

September 30, 2013 amounted to approximately 4.6 million metric tons, down 8% from the same period last

year.

October shipment approximately will represent more than 247.000 Mt increasing the Exported total in 2013

to 4.847.000 metric tons.

Year Thai

Export

Total Milled Rice

Export MT

Broken White A1

Export MT Parboiled all Mt

Fragrant

including

broken

Fragrant

Broken

1980 2,670,000 505,000 295,000 0

1988 4,790,000 513,000 759,000 150,000

1998 6,360,000 575,000 920,000 1,100,000

2002 5,800,000 729,000 1,645,000 1,706,000 420,000

2005 5,000,000 250,000 1,870,000

2008 7,470,.000 419,000 2,750,000 2,500,000 694,000

2010 6,650,000 190,000 3,179,000

2011 8,290,000 270,000 3,430,000 2,317,000 770,000

2012 5,020,000 20,000 2,176,000 1,925,000 520,000

2013 August 4,137,000 NA 915,000 960,000 286.000

2013 Total

Forecast

6,200,000

EUROPEAN RICE IMPORTS

Period 1 Sept 2013 – 22 October , 2013

Milled rice basis New Campaign 2013-14

Japonica total 9,900 Mt (brown and milled)

Indica total 121,000 Mt (brown and milled)

Broken rice 53,000Mt ( milled)

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 8

EU IMPORT MT

1st Sept to 1st Sept

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

BASMATI TOTAL 313.000 318.000 330.000 360.000 23.000

INDIA SHARE 220.000 174.000 274.000 291.000 12.000

ITALIAN HARVEST DELAYED

Italian farmers delayed in harvest due to bad weather in last 40 days.

Only 60% of the surface has been harvested at the end of October compared to a 100% in a usual year

Moisture in paddy will increase drying cost to the farmers

Probably default in paddy will increase

Supply of paddy is very short and prices are moving up day by day specially in the japonica varieties.

***

RUSSIA

2013/14 harvest in Russia (Krasnodar main region) reached the 660.000 mt of paddy, which is far less from

2012/13 harvested more than 1 Million mt. The planted area was 50.000 hectares less than last year.

TURKEY

2013-14 crop already harvested was 4% higher than last year close to 750.000 Mt paddy

Paddy price is ranging from Euro 440 to 400/mt ex farm gate at the end of the harvest but similar to the Italian

level for Japonica long grain Baldo.

EGYPT

Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) will pay higher prices for purchase of 220,000

tons of milled white rice from Egyptian farmers and millers to implement the government food subsidy

program for November and December 2013.

According to local sources, the GASC will pay around $405 – $421/ton in domestic tenders this month, up

about $8 – $18/ton from around $397-$403/ton paid for the purchase of 111,000 tons of rice in tenders

awarded on September 19, 2013. Farmers had expressed disappointment at low prices in September and had

urged the government to increase purchase prices to help them recover increasing production costs. However,

the new prices are still down about $50/ton or around 11% from around $470/ton paid in the August tender.

Meanwhile, local sources also say that the Egypt government has decided to continue the rice export ban it

had put in place in May 2013 until the harvest season in September – October to control rice prices. Sources

say that the government continued the ban to ensure rice supply for the implementation of the food subsidy

program under which around 100,000 tons of rice is required per month.

INDIA AROMATIC RICE –4 November - NEW DELHI

Inadequate supplies and rising domestic demand pushed up prices of a few aromatic and non-basmati rice

varieties on Monday.

Uptrend was anticipated as there is good demand from the domestic market and the availability of stocks is

low. New export trade enquires are also supporting the mark

Trade experts expect prices to strengthen in the near term.

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 9

In the physical market, Rs /100 kg ex Mill Punjab –Haryana

New Pusa-1121 (steam) moved up by Rs 200 to Rs 8,300-8,400

New Pusa-1121 (sela-parboiled) at Rs 7,500/quintal.

Pusa-1509 (sela -parboiled) at Rs 6,050-6,250/quintal.

Pure Basmati (raw-white milled) rose by Rs 500 to Rs 12,000/quintal.

Duplicate Basmati (steam) at Rs 6,700/quintal.

For the brokens:

Broken Pusa-1121, Dubar at Rs 3,900

Broken Tibar at Rs 4,500

Broken Mongra at Rs 3,500

Non-basmati:

Sharbati (steam) went up by Rs 300 to Rs 4,950-5,000

Sharbati (sela) quoted at Rs 4,200, up by Rs 200.

Permal (raw- milled) sold at Rs 2,350-2,400/quintal

Permal (sela-parboiled), at Rs 2,400

PR-11 (sela-parboiled) at Rs 2,900

PR-11 (raw-milled) at Rs 3,000-3,100

PR14 (steam) improved by Rs 50 and sold at Rs 3,150

Other news:

In contrast to paddy farmers getting lower rates due to discoloration, basmati growers have witnessed over

50% jump in price for their produce in the ongoing kharif marketing season in Punjab and Haryana.

Aromatic varieties of basmati paddy are fetching Rs 4700 per quintal as against Rs 2,200 to Rs 2,500/quintal

last year, traders said and expert expect the value can rise to Rs 5000-5500 soon

“This season, farmers are getting better returns for basmati crop despite there being some loss in quality and

yield due to untimely rains,” rice exporter said today. “There is an upswing in prices of all kinds of basmati

varieties this year on the back of strong demand,” he said.

Pusa 1121 variety of paddy constitutes almost 70-80% of area under cultivation in basmati growing areas of

Punjab and Haryana because of its rising export demand in countries like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Middle East,

Europe etc.

Both Punjab and Haryana account for over 60% in country’s basmati exports.

Paddy growers especially in Punjab during this season claimed to have suffered losses as they were forced to

sell ordinary varieties of crop at lesser rate than MSP due to high moisture content and crop discoloration.

As part of crop diversification programme, area under basmati this season rose in Punjab and Haryana.

To boost basmati cultivation, the Punjab government has even decided to waive off Rural Development Fee

(RDF) and market fee on basmati variety of paddy in the state.

Exporters said outbound shipment of basmati this fiscal is likely to touch 4 million tons as against 3.6 million

tons achieved last fiscal.

Exchange rate: USD /INRP 61.73

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 10

RICE S&D INDIA

Milled / 000 Mt 2010-12 2012-13 2013-14

Beginning Stocks 23.500 25.100 24.000

Milled production 105.000 104.000 108.000

Total exports 10.250 9.000 8.500

End stocks 25.100 24.000 25.000

Consumption 93.000 96.000 98.000

RICE Government STOCK

Despite lower procurement, government-held rice stocks on July 1, 2013, were officially estimated at

31.5 MMT compared to 30.7 MMT a year ago, and nearly 3 times larger than the government’s desired July 1

stock target of 11.8 MMT.

With the expectation of relatively weak procurement and stronger off take of government rice during July-

September, October 1, 2013 stocks are projected lower at 22.5 MMT compared to 23.4 MMT at the same time

last year. (USDA)

Losses due to improper storage conditions are always important and difficult to estimate.

Local Common Milled Rice price

Rs 24.000 in January 2011

Rs 21.000 in June 2011

Rs 24.000 in August 2012

Rs 23.000 in September 2012

Rs 27.000 in February 2013

Rx 27.500 in June 2013

Index Numbers of Wholesale Price in India (Base: 2004-05=100)

Review for the month of September, 2013

The official Wholesale Price Index for ‘All Commodities’ (Base: 2004-05 = 100) for the month of September,

2013 rose by 1.2% to 179.7 (provisional) from 177.5 (provisional) for the previous month.

INFLATION

The annual rate of inflation, based on monthly WPI, stood at 6.46% (provisional) for the month of September,

2013 (over September, 2012) as compared to 6.10% (provisional) for the previous month and 8.07% during

the corresponding month of the previous year. Build up inflation rate in the financial year so far was 5.64%

compared to a build up rate of 4.84% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

PRIMARY ARTICLES (Weight 20.12% on total)

The index for this major group rose by 1.5 % to 251.6 (provisional) from 247.8 (provisional) for the previous

month. The groups and items which showed variations during the month are as follows:-

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 11

The index for 'Food Articles' group rose by 0.8 % to 252.3 (provisional) from 250.3 (provisional) for the

previous month due to higher price of egg (5%), moong (4%), wheat, gram, maize, barley and mutton (2%

each) and condiments & spices, tea, milk, rice, fruits & vegetables, fish-inland, arhar, pork and beef & buffalo

meat (1% each). However, the price of poultry chicken (9%), fish-marine (3%) and ragi (2%) declined.

FUEL & POWER (Weight 14.91% on total)

The index for this major group rose by 2.6 % to 207.5 (provisional) from 202.3 (provisional) for the previous

month due to higher price of light diesel oil (11%), furnace oil (8%), aviation turbine fuel (7%), naphtha (7%),

petrol (6%), lubricants (3%), kerosene and bitumen (3% each), high speed diesel (2%) and lpg (1%).

WHEAT INDIA

The Government has reduced the floor price for wheat exports by $40/ton to $260. This is to make

Indian wheat shipments more viable in the global market.

On Wednesday, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved the cut in minimum export price or

floor price to $260/ton from the earlier $300, official sources said. This follows the poor response to the

recent tenders floated by State entities — STC, MMTC and PEC to export about 1.6 lakh tonnes. Against a

floor price of $300/ton, the bids received by these entities ranged between $260 and $267/ton, forcing the

Government to drop the price.

The Government has decided to ship out wheat to cut surplus stocks and create space for other cereals

such as rice, for which paddy procurement is currently on in Punjab and Haryana. The State entities had

exported 4.2 mt of wheat in fiscal 2012-13 and the value of these shipments was $1.4 billion. The average

price fetched by the Indian wheat stood at $311.38/ton last fiscal.

Today, the FCI carries about 23 million tonnes of wheat ($8 billion or Rs 50,000 crore) over and above the

buffer norms; yet food inflation remains untamed.

MYANMAR RICE

Paddy Prices in 2013 campaign are up from a year ago, and rice exports have doubled to 1.5 million

tons in 2012-13 from the previous crop year. This level of exports, unusually high compared to exports in past

years, comes with unchanged rice production.The kyat exchange rate depreciated from Nov 2012 at 860 to

November 2013 at 970 against USD (11.4 %).

Exports doubling are an increase in exports to China – they are estimated at about 800,000 tons in the

2012-13 fiscal year, up from only about 100,000 tons a few years ago. China has been raising its paddy

support prices from $272 in 2010 to $421 in 2013.

Such exports are legal from Myanmar but it is only semi-legal for Chinese traders to import rice

directly. While Yunnan has often allowed border trade that skirts national rules, it appears that the Chinese

authorities have begun to curtail the border trade in 2013.

There were rumours some paddy from Myanmar was also reaching Thailand where price are also very

attractive under the Government pledging scheme. The possibility to export milled rice to European

Community under zero tax quota (Least Developed Country) will also increase the demand in the next year

changing the industrial quality approach of the millers and exporters.

According to Commerce Minister Win Myint, “Burma expects its rice exports to reach 3 million tons

in the next fiscal year,” said Soe Tun, who is also a spokesman for the Myanmar Agribusiness Public

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 12

Corporation. Burma signed an agreement in March that led to a shipment of 5,000 tons of rice to Japanese

trading house Mitsui earlier this month—its first export of rice to Japan in 45 years.

The deal will also see Japan invest in Burmese processing plants that will have an annual intake of

400,000 tons of rice. Japanese logistics giant Kamigumi Co Ltd has signed a Memorandum of Understanding

(MoU) with Myanmar Agribusiness Public Corporation (Mapco) to facilitate the shipment of rice from major

production points throughout Myanmar to Japan.

Last month, during Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s visit to Burma, a

memorandum of understanding was clinched for Burma to export up to 500,000 tons of rice per fiscal year to

Indonesia depending on the supply and demand factors in the two countries.

PAKISTAN June 2012/July 2013 Campaign export (Milled Rice in Mt)

BASMATI RICE NON BASMATI RICE

Super Basmati White 353.000 IRRI 9 LG W R 41.000

Parboiled Basmati 40.000 IRRI 6 LG WR 2.427.000

Basmati White standard 160.000 IRRI LG BLENDED 221.000

Brown Basmati 76.000 PB IRRI 9 LG 24.000

PB IRRI 6 LG 121.000

PB LG BLENDED 23.000

TOTAL 2012-2013 630.000 TOTAL 2.858.000

July –October 2013 173.000 July-October 2013 564.000

CAMBODIAN Rice Exported by Months from 2010 to 2013 in Mt Milled Rice

Monthly 2010 2011 2012 2013

1. January 10,012 6,798 9,703 25,726

2. February 13,644 5,089 14,417 24,089

3. March 5,062 12,534 12,310 45,413

4. April 17,287 17,946 15,036 23,276

5. May 5,499 20,520 13,115 28,350

6. June 17,990 4,274 13,426 29,105

7. July 15,030 12,703 20,527 31,411

8. August 5,997 20,404 15,530 29,358

9. September 4,744 14,384 15,169 29.395

10. October 6,078 19,067 16,967 --

11. November 7,988 9,559 25,189 --

12. December 9,645 44,905 34,328 --

Total Yearly 105,259 201,899 205,717 294,154

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 13

VIETNAM

5 November 2013

Ten-month rice export rakes in nearly 2.5 billion USD.

Vietnam exported over 5.7 million tons of rice for nearly 2.5 billion USD in the first 10 months of this year,

according to the Vietnam Food Association. The export volume included more than 537,000 tonnes shipped in

October, about 10,500 tons higher than total shipments in the previous month.

Africa is emerging as a market with great potential for Vietnamese rice exports, according to the VFA.

In the first 9 months of the year, African countries imported over 4.79 million tons of rice worth 2.05 billion

USD from Vietnam making the continent the largest importer of Vietnamese rice during the period. It is

followed by Asia the Middle East, the US and the EU. Vietnam has lowered bar for its rice export for 2013 to

between 7-7.2 million tonnes from the targeted 7.5 million tonnes and is striving to open new markets.

As domestic businesses currently meet difficulties in exporting to traditional markets, promoting exports to

new markets such as Africa and Mexico is considered an important solution.

***

Rice firm offers shares to its farmers

Besides strongly supporting rice growers with seeds, fertilizers and modern cultivation practices, a multi-

sector agricultural company in the Mekong Delta province of An Giang also launched a special program to

allow farmers to be its shareholders.

An Giang Plant Protection Service JSC (AGPPS) has officially implemented its plan to issue 2.48 million

shares at preferential prices for farmers in the Mekong Delta.

Some 6,000 farmers who are participating in a rice growing program run by AGPPS will be allowed to buy

the shares at VND30,000 each, half of the real rate. With a total registered capital of VND621 billion and

more than 3,000 employees, AGPPS is currently the leading producer and supplier of plant seeders and

pesticides, and one of the top rice processors and exporters of the country.

In 2010, AGPPS launched a modern rice growing program called “model large rice field,” in which it

provided farmers with seeders, fertilizers, and pesticides at a zero interest rate and promised to buy all of their

harvest at market rates.

***

Rice farmers losing out on production profits

Viet Nam exports large amounts of rice, yet millions of rice farmers do not profit from their hard work,

Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Cao Duc Phat said. He was speaking at a recent conference

reviewing the implementation of the Party Central Committee’s resolution on developing agriculture, farmers

and rural areas over the past 5 years.

Total rice production reached 43.7 million tons this year, according to the ministry, an increase of 5.1 million

tons over the past 5 years. But the low profits that rice farming offers are driving many to abandon their fields,

Phat said.

The country has about 18 millions hectares of land for cultivation, forestry and aquaculture production. The

total turnover of the sector was VND9.4 trillion (US$441 million) last year, while the turnover of each hectare

was VND50 million ($2,350).

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 055 8 November 2013

GAOTRADE CO. LTD

GAFTA MEMBER Cell. : 0044 7584 577 478 - 00221 770 990 408 [email protected] 14

“There are about five to six households sharing each hectare on average. How could they live on such a low

income?” former Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Cong Tan said.

Tan said the country should aim to increase farmers’ incomes instead of rice exports. This could be done by

reducing rice production to enough for domestic consumption and an extra 20% for export and switching to

other crops that would bring farmers higher profits.

Aquaculture production and the agriculture-forestry-aquaculture processing industry are also seeing high

annual growth rates, about 5.6 % and 18.3% respectively. But while agricultural exports are high, they also

tend to be low value. “We have mainly exported raw materials. Something must be done to avoid reducing the

value of agricultural products in the international market,” Tan said.

***

Import of animal feed and input materials soar 38.5%

Vietnam’s imports of animal feed and raw material for animal feed production are estimated to touch

$2.73 billion in the first 10 months of this year, soaring 38.5% from a year ago, (data from MARD) which is

the equivalent of the total export rice gross income.

In October alone, imports of these products reached $357 million, mainly from Argentina, India and the

United States, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said that imports of these products have

accelerated in recent years on increasing of the domestic livestock industry.