inside the rice (short) no. 27 dec 2013+… · inside the rice (short) no. 27 dec 2013 gaotrade...

INSIDE THE RICE (short) No. 27 Dec 2013

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E.U. Rice Ex Mill

USD

/MT

Euro

/Mt

$ /Mt Euro

/Mt

$/Mt Euro/Mt

12

Dec

2011

12 Dec

2011

13

Jan 2013

13

Jan 2013

23 Dec

2013

23 Dec

2013

Originario Round Japonica 705 560 550

Medium Japonica Lido/ Flipper 6 mm 760 560 650

Roma Lg jap 7,18 mm 640 1000

Baldo LG Jap 7,35 mm 880 680 1050

Arborio LG japonica Top 7,37 mm 1070 700 1100

INDICA LG Milled 7,61 mm 630 570 550

Parboiled Baldo LG Jap 980 680 1100

Parboiled INDICA Lg 720 630 620

Broken ¾ to more than ½ grain 380 365 360

Broken ½ grain 370 355 340

Rice Bran Row 150 210

Broken less ¼ sortex 300 305

Egyptian White Medium 5 % Fob FCL Alexandria 730

EU import Tax on Milled Broken Euro/T 65

EU import tax on Brown any rice Euro/T 30

Spain Blanco Japonica MG Sevilla NA

Russian Rice Future – 14 % Br WM Osmangik

Ex Mill Krasn Bulk 623 468

684

507

Soft Wheat Rouen FOB Soft Wheat Fob Marseille

246.50

202

Maize Futures 237.00 173

Durum Wheat France South port PLN 285.00 250

THAILAND FOB 50 Kg PP bags USD/ MT

EURO/MT

$ /Mt Euro/

Mt $ Euro

Thailand milled Long Grain Indica New Crop

Thai White Rice 100% B 600 560 395

Thai White Rice 5% 585 550 380

Thai OLD CROP White Rice 5 % Na 365 Or less




100 Broken A1 Super 545 525 305

Fragrant A1 Super 540 560 370

Parboiled milled rice 100% Whole long grain Sortexed

590 575

445

Hom Mali 92% Purity or Jasmine Rice Equiv 5% 1075 1080 970

PAKISTAN FOB Stowed 50 Kg Karachi or In

Container FCL 20 “

$/MT

EURO/MT

USD/MT EURO/

MT $ Euro

Irri 6 Milled

WRLG IRRI 6 with 5 % Brkn sortexed DP 435 390

WRLG IRRI 6 with 10 % Brkn WM 425 380

WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn W Milled 394 375

http://www.google.sn/imgres?imgurl=http://www.mapsofworld.com/images/world-countries-flags/italy-flag.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.mapsofworld.com/flags/italy-flag.html&h=265&w=390&sz=5&tbnid=Lp68aftPtQzdtM:&tbnh=82&tbnw=120&prev=/search?q=italian+flag&tbm=isch&tbo=u&zoom=1&q=italian+flag&usg=__OZMO9LLztOCrmBfKppIhPbYGz_c=&docid=5KPApP8iszBpFM&sa=X&ei=JenSUbnXNYXY7AbW_IHQBQ&sqi=2&ved=0CDUQ9QEwAg&dur=1404

http://www.google.sn/imgres?imgurl=http://www.mapsofworld.com/images/world-countries-flags/egypt-flag.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.mapsofworld.com/flags/egypt-flag.html&h=265&w=390&sz=8&tbnid=xvy8T9mfHSS_CM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=132&prev=/search?q=egypt+flag&tbm=isch&tbo=u&zoom=1&q=egypt+flag&usg=__6r_LS_pUSeA8ctL7Kab9h6Gy5dM=&docid=unQrIIrLmbuDJM&sa=X&ei=nerSUcuEB_HH7AaXy4GgDQ&sqi=2&ved=0CDIQ9QEwAQ&dur=11

http://www.google.sn/imgres?imgurl=http://0.tqn.com/d/gospain/1/0/r/H/-/-/Spain_flag.gif&imgrefurl=http://gospain.about.com/od/spanishlife/ig/Spanish-Flags/Spanish-Flag.htm&h=788&w=1165&sz=41&tbnid=eVgB8jz9xVSAAM:&tbnh=82&tbnw=121&prev=/search?q=spain+flag&tbm=isch&tbo=u&zoom=1&q=spain+flag&usg=__T3YS0UhwQ3JisEAMyTWs_1S9b1E=&docid=i8zygqvi2tcJeM&sa=X&ei=7-rSUfGeKu6I7Ab9hoDIBw&sqi=2&ved=0CCcQ9QEwAA&dur=1364

http://www.google.sn/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/archive/f/f3/20120812153730!Flag_of_Russia.svg&imgrefurl=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Russia.svg&h=1200&w=1800&sz=1&tbnid=zZewaFXCM3IaTM:&tbnh=81&tbnw=122&prev=/search?q=russian+flag&tbm=isch&tbo=u&zoom=1&q=russian+flag&usg=__xpvH_iJ2LtTnXy9M5ZtsQWx2ET0=&docid=oEVpHXXBzHVx7M&sa=X&ei=NevSUfThFOWJ7Ab-wYHgDA&sqi=2&ved=0CDgQ9QEwAg&dur=481




WRLG IRRI 6 with 15 % Brkn Standard 380 370

WR LG 25 max standard Milling 395 372 350

100% Broken Sortex Double polished 365 350 325

PK 386 Long Grain 2 % Na

Super Basmati Milled 2 % Old Crop 990 NA

IRRI 9 Milled 2 % 720 715

ParBoiled LG 5 % Broken max SRTXD 440

Small Broken w m d sortexed 1,7 -2,5 mm Human consumption

NA

BASMATI D 98 with 2 % broken na

INDIA FOB Stowed 50 kg If Container premium $ 15/Mt to Vizag

$ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt $ Euro

Parboiled 106 Long grain milled 5 Srtxd Kandla 510

White Milled Rice LG PR 106 Well Milled Sortexed DP 5

Kandla 520

WR LG PR 106 WM 5% Br Standard Kandla 500

WRLG PR 106 25 % Br R W M Kandla 440

Broken sortexed super PR 106 Kandla NA

W R IR 64 Long grain 5% DP srtxd Kakinada 435 435 395

W R IR 64 Long grain 5% Standard WM 420 390

Par Boiled IR 64 Sortex Well milled 5 % Kakinada 428 405

W R IR 64 L G 15 % well milled

WR IR 64 long grain 25 % well milled 410 395 370

BROWN PARBOILED SORTEXED LG 6 mm 400 380

BROWN LG IR 64 /IR 38 SRTXD LG 6 mm 390 370

Super Broken Sortex D P water polished Kernel more than 1,5 MM IR 64

325

305

Broken less than 1.5 mm well milled human consumption

305

285

1121 PUSA BASMATI 2 % ex Mill Rps/100 Haryana Punjab

8400 Rs

Pure Basmati milled 2 % ex Mill Rps/100

12500 Rs

Medium Grain Swarna Sortexed 5% DP 5.5 mm max

Kakinada 395 N crop

385

Med G Swarna 15 % broken Indica WM Kakinada NA

Med G Swarna 25 % Broken Standard milling RWM

Kakinada 370 New c 360

M Grain PB 1001 -5.6 mm SRTX WM 5 pct 395 New C 375

VIETNAM FOB 50 kg traditional vessel

$ EURO $ /Mt

Euro/ Mt

$/Mt

LG Milled 5% WM DP ¾ basis 495 415 415

10% Br basis 3/4 WM 490 405 410

15% Br basis 2/3 WM 475 395 400

LG Reasonably Mill 25 % Br basis ½ grain 460 380 390

A1 Super broken Well Milled 425 355 375




Fragrant 100 % broken well milled 420

Jasmine Broken Pure 90 % sortexed DP 400 610

LG Fragrant KDM Rice 5 purity 90% W M DP

5% 760

745

Fragrant Standard no 4900 with 5 % br max 600 590

MERCOSUR $ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt $ Euro

Mercosur rice Long Grain Milled

Uruguay Long Grain Sortexed 5% broken Bagged FOB

565 625

600 Short supply

Uruguay PB Brown LG in Bulk in FCL

525 NA New crop

April 2014

Uruguay Brown Long Grain FOB bulk FCL Na NA

Brazil LG 5 % broken bulk FAS + empty bag on board of vessel $ 10 /t

560 Na

575

Brazil LG 20 % Broken Fas +empty bags On board $ 10/mt

Na

Uruguay Parboiled 5 Sortexed bagged Fob 595 575 NA

Brazil Parboiled 5 Sortexed bulk FAS + empty bags $ 10/ Mt

555 565

575

São Paolo Milled LG Tipo 1 wholesaler 30 Kg bags Local Market

843 780

Sao Paulo Milled LG Tipo 2 /30 kg 698

Uruguay broken 100 % Srtx FOB Bagged

NA NA New crop

April 2014

Brazilian Broken FAS Bulk RGS port Bulk

330 N Crop 310 If

available

PADDY ex mill bulk cash 58 whole grain min

$ EURO $ /Mt Euro/

Mt $ Euro

Italy Long Grain Indica Paddy 385 285 392 295 275

Brazil Lungo Fino Indica Tipo 1 Pelotas RGS 58/10 286 343 257 300 222

Brazil L Fino Tipo 1 Sorriso Mato Grosso 58/10 358 265

Italy Medium Grain Japonica 472 350 379 285 520

Italy Arborio Paddy LG Japonica 330 550

Italy Round Grain

396 416

285

300

Russian Round Grain Japonica Yield 50 whole grain ex farm Krasnodar

10500 355 300

375 278

Indian Long Grain Indica ex farm Minimum Support Government 2013-14

1380 230

Free Market average North to South 1400 233

Egypt Paddy Med/LG Japonica ex farm 410 300 292 216

Thai Long Grain Indica Gov Price 13800 Bath /Mt

Thai Fragrant Paddy Gov Price 18000

Bath /Mt

China Medium Grain Japonica Govern Price Paddy

444 489




China Japonica Paddy free market

502 370

China early crop LG Indica Future Paddy 386 432 420

Vietnam LG Indica ex Mekong Farm dry Paddy

300 220 239

Indonesian paddy Indica LG 404

CAMBODIA $ EURO $

Euro/ Mt

$ Euro

Cambodia Milled Long Grain FOB FOB bulk

FCL

Jasmine Top Phka Malis 5 pct 92 % pure 920 935 910

Milled rice Long Grain Broken 5 % 505 460

Fragrant top Quality Sen Kra Ob 5 % 860

Jasmin TPM pure Broken 100 % Srtx WM 615

Standard broken well milled 520 NA

USA Ex mill bulk FOT $ $c/CWT $/MT $c/cwt Euro/Mt

LG MILLED N 2 –Broken 4 % TEXAS 595 27.5 30.00

LG MILLED N 2 – Broken 4 % Louisiana 27 28.00

MEDIUM Californian 1 /4 pct broken 827 34 32.00 522

SHORT GRAIN CALIF n 1 34.5 32.50

Parboiled L G L/Tx/Ark average 33 34.00 555

Broken Second Heads LG 374 19.5 18.00

Broken Second Heads Medium Grain Cal 329 24.5 21.50

Brewers Broken average 17 17.50

Brewers Broken California Medium 18.5 19.00

Rice Bran ex mill on truck Louisiana USD /Mt 200 195.00

2 Sept

2012

10 Nov

2012

27 Jan

2013

15

August

2013

23

Dec 2013

Corn USA Future 8.11 7.38 7.20 4.73 4.31

Wheat USA future 8.73 8.86 7.70 6..31 6.13

Paddy Rice Future 15.01 14.94 15.26 15..55 15.49

Jan 14

Euro /USD 1.2577 1.2712 1.3469 1.3305 1.3688

USD/FCFA 521 480.43

Euro/FCFA 655.69 656.89




GENERAL RICE MARKET VIEW 2013/14

GLOBAL PRODUCTION – Record high.

Larger crops in Burma, Cambodia, Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan, Philippines, and Thailand, plus a solid

crop in India and another record in Vietnam

Smaller crops in Australia, China, and the U.S.

Typhoon struck the Philippines in November , 1.5 -2.0 Mio Mt Paddy lost Minimum

ENDING STOCKS

above the 2012/13 level at 110 Mio Mt milled basis

Seventh consecutive year of an increase.

The highest since 2001/02 (75 Mio Mt milled )

Stocks are projected record high—15.5 Mio mt Milled basis —for Thailand

Ending stocks are projected lower for China, India, Indonesia, and the United States.

World Trade Forecasted at 39 Mio Mt Milled Basis

Cambodia will export more than 1 Mio Mt milled rice record high

China import forecasted min 3.8 Mio mt to max 5 Mio Mt

Nigeria Parboiled import estimated at 3.5 Mio Mt including via Benin

Iran importation will decrease to 1.5 Mio Mt

Iraq import expectred at 1.350 Mio Mt

Senegal Broken rice import will reach the standard 1.2 Mio Mt

Ivory Coast will stay on an average 1.1 Mio Mt white rice

Indonesia forecasted at 1.5 Mio Mt import

USA will import close to 700.000 Mt of Milled rice

Taiwan under total CSQ and SBS quote will import close to 100.000 mt from Thailand, Australia , USA and

possible Egypt.




CHINA

Thailand will start loading in December about half the 1 million tonnes of rice it has agreed to sell

to China annually, the remaining 500,000 tonnes will be delivered gradually in the second half of 2014.

Thailand is also working on another agreement made in September to sell 1.2 million tonnes of rice

from stocks to a Chinese state-firm,

Rice imports may increase to a record 4/5 million tons in 2013-14 (October to September) due to

lower production and high domestic prices, according to the China National Grain and Oils.

China, the world’s top rice producer and consumer starts trading futures next week for short-grain rice

on the Commodity Exchange. The move comes as China speeds up the expansion of its commodity futures

markets, with the government hoping to offer companies more hedging tools and boost the country’s

influence over global prices. The benchmark price for Japonica short-grain rice contracts has been set at 3,050

yuan ($ 502/ton) for contracts for the months of March, May, July, September and November, according to a

statement issued by the exchange on Tuesday.

The country’s Japonica rice output stood at 64.44 million tons last year, largely grown in the northeast

provinces and accounting for 31.5% of China’s total rice production, it said.

Chinese Academics Push Mass GMO Rice Production.

61Chinese academics have written a letter to the Chinese government asking that genetically modified

(GM) rice be industrialized. According to Z. Qifa, a professor at the Huazhong Agricultural University, the

future of transgenic rice in China is bleak, with the biggest obstacle being government policy.

The Ministry of Agriculture, in 2009, authorized 2 types of transgenic rice, but industrialization has not been

possible as the government never set up a system to allow reasonable access to a production or business

license, or a strategy to promote the industry. In an effort to further promote the rice, transgenic rice tasting

events, with rice supplied by Huazhong Agricultural University, have been held in 28 cities in China.

China is the world's largest producer of rice, and the crop makes up a little less than half of the country's total

grain output. China accounts for 26.% of all world rice production. In a given year total rice output came from

four different crops.

The early rice crop grows primarily in provinces along theYangtze River and in provinces in the south; it is

planted in February to April and harvested in June and July and contributes about 34% to total rice output.

Intermediate and single-crop late rice grows in the southwest and along the Yangtze; it is planted in

March to June and harvested in October and November and also contributed about 34% to total rice output in

the 1980s.

Double-crop late rice, planted after the early crop is reaped, is harvested in October to November and adds

about 25% to total rice production. Rice grown in the north is planted from April to June and harvested from

September to October; it contributes about 7% to total production.

GM Rice test in China: Researchers at China’s Agricultural University have concluded that testing on

transgenic rice has so far brought no abnormalities. The results came after 90 days’ of tests to see if the

genetically modified food had any health effects. News that Chinese scientists were testing genetically

modified rice on animals has drawn widespread attention.

Professor H.Kunlun from China’s Agricultural University is in charge of the research. He says guinea

pigs and monkeys were used in the testing because they have strong similarities to human digestive systems

and how they process nutrition. Established in 2012, the research team carried out studies on the animals’

metabolism, immunity, and reproductive systems. Researchers spent 90 days on the testing work. During this

period, there were no reports of deaths or toxicities. All the animals tested were found to be healthy.

According to China’s Ministry of Agriculture, a number of countries have tested GM foods on animals.

Countries like the US and Germany have used GM corn or beans on cows, chicken and fish. All those tests

found no abnormalities. Experts say a standardized testing procedure will be set up to ensure tests are reliable

and accurate. Testing periods currently are 42, 45 and 90 days, depending on the type of animal.

http://www.reuters.com/places/china

http://www.reuters.com/places/thailand

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks?lc=int_mb_1001

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rice

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yangtze_River




Hybrid Rice China: In 1976 Chinese scientists made a crucial breakthrough with the

commercialization of “3 line hybrid Rice”, raising yield more than 5mt /ha in 1983. With more technological

advance the yield went to 6 mt /ha in 1995. By the end of 2004 in certain regions selected by experts the yield

reach the 10 mt paddy rice/ha. Today Hybrid rice account for 63% of the total Chinese land rice under

cultivation. In 2006 China started working on super Hybrid rice Phase III with the objective to reach13 Mt

paddy rice/ha. China reduced the total rice area from 34.4 Mio Ha in 1978 to 29.4 Mio ha in 2008.

China’s food consumption changes and trends:

(1) Quality and safety of foods concerns can affect the demand of domestically produced foods and lead to the

substitution of domestically produced food by imported foods.

(2) Changes in supply chains will make foods available in locations and at times that would have otherwise

not been possible, particularly perishable foods. This also affects the quantity of food consumed.

(3) Rural migration and urbanisation. Each year a large number of rural people move into the urban system,

which results in changes in where foods are consumed. Composition of food consumption and manners of

consumption (e.g., methods of cooking) will also change.

(4) The ageing population. China’s population is ageing and the absolute number of aged citizens is

increasing rapidly. The demand for food, in terms of quantity, quality and variety, by older people is

different from people of other age groups.

(5) The tastes of younger consumers. Younger generations, with increased levels of education and more

exposure to foreign cultures, tend to be more prepared to try foreign foods and the food consumption

styles of other cultures.

(6) Increasing demand for foods of premium quality. Increased disposable income coupled with small family

size leads to increased demand for foods of premium quality. Foreigners in China (tourists and

expatriates) also demand higher quality food.

Urban China Consumption Trend x foods (yuan or kg)

Year Per

cap

ita

inco

me

Food g

rain

s

Veg

etab

les

Cookin

g o

il

Mea

ts

Poult

ry

Poult

ry

Eggs

Sugar

Mil

k a

nd

dai

ry

pro

duct

s

Food g

rain

s

Rura

l only

1982 535 145 159 5.78 18.67 2.26 5.88 2.80 n.a. 248

1985 739 135 144 5.76 19.32 3.24 6.84 2.52 n.a. 257

1990 1510 131 139 6.40 21.74 3.42 7.25 2.14 4.6 257

1995 4283 97 116 7.11 19.68 3.97 9.74 1.68 4.6 262

2000 6280 82 115 8.16 20.06 5.44 11.21 1.70 11.55 259

2001 6860 80 116 8.08 19.12 5.30 10.41 1.67 13.76 250

2002 7703 78 117 8.52 23.28 9.24 10.56 18.12 239

2003 8472 80 118 9.20 23.74 9.20 11.19 21.71 237

2004 9422 78 122 9.29 22.85 6.37 10.35 22.19 222

2005 10493 77 119 9.25 23.86 8.97 10.40 21.67 218

2006 11760 76 118 9.38 23.78 8.34 10.41 22.54 209

2007 13786 78 118 9.63 22.14 9.66 10.33 22.17 206

2008 15781 n.a. 123 10.27 22.70 8.00 10.74 19.30 199

2009 17175 81 120 9.67 24.20 10.47 10.57 19.27 199

2010 19109 82 116 8.84 24.51 10.21 10.00 18.10 189




GRAIN Consumption

Year

Per

capita

income

Paddy

Rice

Rural

area

Milled

Rice

Rural Wheat Maize

Beans and

Processed

Products

Of Which:

Soybean

Rice Milled

Urban area

2000 2253 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 46

2001 2366 123 62 77 18.67 5.65 2.46 44

2002 2476 123 76 17.79 5.76 2.20 44

2003 2622 119 73 16.40 3.30 2.10 44

2004 2936 117 72 15.60 3.00 1.90 42

2005 3255 113 68 14.20 3.30 1.90 42

2006 3587 112 66 14.60 3.50 2.10 41

2007 4140 109 64 13.40 3.00 1.70 42

2008 4761 111 63 13.30 3.00 1.80 45

2009 5153 106 60 12.00 3.20 1.70 43

2010 5919 102 51 58 n.a. n.a. 1.61 40

Rice Paddy kg CONSUMPTION CHINA BY AREA

MYANMAR RICE Forecast 2014

Myanmar plans to more than double rice shipments as the country that used to be the largest exporter

of the cereal grain embraces trade and opens its economy, challenging Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia for

sales amid a global glut.

Shipments may increase to 2.5 million metric tons in 2014 and 2015 from an estimated 1.8 million tons in the

year that started April 1, according to the director-general of the Department of Trade Promotion at the

Ministry of Commerce.

Milled rice supply is expected to total 12.9 million tons this crop year, topping local demand of 11

million tons, and output may increase to 13.3 million tons next season.

Export figures and forecasts include trade with China, which accounts for about half of total shipments.

0-10

11-100

101-150

151-200

201+




‘Produce More’:“We see promising opportunities in the sector because the global rice market grows

and China demand increases, as African countries, Russia and Europe. The rice industry contributed about

13% of gross domestic product in 2011, and more than 70% of the population is connected with the trade

Myanmar's strengths are low production costs, vast land and abundant water and labour, according to a 2012

study from the Manila-based Asian Development Bank (ADB). Myanmar shares a border with China, and the

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts rice imports by Asia’s largest economy

will rise to 3.4 million tons next year, making it the biggest buyer. China’s purchases may total 5 million tons

in 2014, according to senior economist at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI).

Largest Shipper: Myanmar was the world’s biggest rice exporter from 1961 to 1963, with shipments of

1.6 million to 1.7 million tonnes a year, until it was displaced by neighbour Thailand, according to data from

the USDA that starts in 1961. Exports fell as low as 15,000 tons in 1997. Last year, it shipped 690,000 tonnes

to rank ninth worldwide. “Myanmar certainly has the potential to become one of the leading rice exporters, if

not the leading one, in the medium run”. It is one of the few countries in the region that faces no land, water

or labour constraints and it is strategically located with China.

JAPAN RICE

Harvest of 8,245,000 MT of table rice on a brown rice basis. MAFF will publish the final crop index

in December. The demand for rice has been on a moderate downward trend. Accordingly the price of rice is,

on the whole, also falling. Turning to the supply side, the crop situation index of 2012 was 102 as announced

by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) last year, which indicates a good harvest for

the first time in four years. So, logically, there should have been a drop in rice price because of an increase in

supply and a decrease in demand.However, the reality was that the wholesale price of rice (the transaction

price between Japan Agricultural Cooperatives ("JA") and wholesale dealers) produced in 2012 hovered

around 16,500 yen per 60 kilograms. The wholesale price of rice produced in 2011 was 15,215: 20% higher

than that produced in 2010.

This was caused by the aftermath of the Great East Japan Earthquake. The wholesale price of rice

produced in 2012 was about 10% higher than that of 2011 meaning that 2012 rice was priced as high as 130%

of the rice produced in 2010. This is a peculiar situation where the price climbs despite a decline in

consumption and an increase in supply. Why this irregular movement occurred in the market?

A special payment arrangement is provided for rice farmers in Japan to fill a long time-gap between

harvesting and consumption. The JA makes an initial payment to farmers when they harvest rice, and adjusts

the amount of such payment when it sells rice to wholesale dealers. The volume of the JA's collection of rice

has been declining. The JA offered farmers a higher temporary payment than in average years in order to

strengthen its collection capability. MAFF officials stated last October that the price of the last year's rice was

raised because of the JA's increase in initial payments which was passed on to the wholesale price determined

through negotiation with wholesale dealers.

However, according to the realities of supply and demand, the price of rice must go down sometime in

the near future. If this were to happen farmers would have to reimburse the difference between the amount of

initial payment and the actual wholesale price. This situation would inevitably disappoint farmers. However,

in reality, this will never happen.

As I mentioned earlier, the price of rice is largely determined in the same manner as any other product.

On the other hand, it should be noted that the price of rice as well as its production is significantly affected by

the then-current government's policies and wrangling between political parties and with the JA. Until 1995,

since before World War II, the price of rice was determined by the government under the Food Control Law.




The government purchased rice at the producer's price which was fixed by the government at a higher level

than could be determined by supply and demand in the market. Therefore, production of rice significantly

expanded and the government accumulated a large surplus of rice. It cost 3 trillion yen to dispose of the

surplus, and led to the rice paddy set-aside program.

In addition to the rice paddy set-aside program, by which supply of rice is manipulated to keep the rice

price higher, the individual household income support system was introduced in 2010, under which the

government compensates rice farmers for the difference between the guaranteed price and the actual market

price so that farmers do not suffer from any financial hardship due to a decline in the market price.

The price of rice might fall sometime in the near future, and the JA might ask farmers to pay a part of the

initial payment back to the JA. In such a case, farmers would be compensated under the individual household

income support system, and thus would be unaffected by the fall in the rice price. Ultimately, no farmer will

voice dissatisfaction with the JA even though they set the initial payment higher than the market price.

The retail price of rice has increased recently. As a result, demand in rice is continuing to fall. The

total demand for rice was 13.41 million tons at its peak, which has decreased to as low as 8 million tons at the

moment. I believe that the futures-trading market must be stimulated in order to maintain and develop rice

production in Japan.

THAILAND

Export prices keep moving down in export value due to minimal trading during the current political

environment. The Thai Prime Minister dissolved the parliament on December 9, 2013 and called for new

elections to diffuse the current political turmoil. Despite the chaos, the current 2013/14 main-crop rice paddy

pledging program, which began on October 1, 2013, will continue until February 28, 2014. The government

has reportedly received approximately 6 million metric tons of rice paddy (4 million metric milled equivalent

The pledges consist of 4 million metric tons of white rice paddy (2.7 million metric tons milled

equivalent) and 2 million metric tons of fragrant rice paddy (1.3 million metric tons milled equivalent). The

continuance of the off-season rice paddy pledging program (March 1 – September 30, 2014) will depend on

the new government.

Exports:

Weekly export increase from average 78.000/week in September to 97.000 mt during 1st week December

But back down to 71.000mt in 2nd

week December

Exports of white and parboiled rice from January 1 through December 8, 2013 totalled 3’190’550 metric tons,

down 34% from 4,795,000 metric tons in the same period last year, mainly due to a reduction in parboiled rice

exports.

Total rice exports (including premium white rice and fragrant rice) from January 1 through November 20,

2013 amounted to approximately 5.7 million metric tons, down 8.1% from the same period last year.

2007 export figures:

White, Parboiled and cargo rice : 6.600.000 Mt Milled basis

Thai Fragrant Phatunthani : 340.000 Mt Milled basis

Thai Hom Mali WR : 2.900.000 Mt Milled basis

U.S. Department of Agriculture has said Thailand reserves could reach a total of 15.5 million tonnes next

year.




EUROPEAN RICE IMPORTS

Period 1-Sept 2013 to -17 Dec, 2013

Milled rice basis

Japonica total 24.000 Mt (brown and milled)

Indica total 219.000 Mt (brown and milled)

Broken rice 92.000 Mt (brown and milled)

Importation of

Small Packaging (5-20kg) Milled Rice last 12 Months: 180.000 mt

EU IMPORT MT

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2013

Sept –Dec

BASMATI TOTAL 313.000 318.000 330.000 87.300

INDIA SHARE 220.000 174.000 274.000 54.000

EGYPT

Forecasts total area harvested and production to remain stable in 2013/2014. The 13-15 % increase in

paddy rice prices and a similar percentage increase in retailer prices will encourage farmers to maintain the

same planted area in the upcoming season.

Prices of paddy rice have increased recently to reach LE2050/MT compared to LE1800/MT four

months ago. Traders indicate that prices may increase again by more 2 % during the coming weeks. Reports

indicate that GASC’s last tender for purchasing 300 TMT of rice for ration card program failed due to traders’

reluctant to tender while GASC said that the tender was cancelled due to the high prices offered by traders at

LE 3500/MT.

Based on newly released Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation survey data. While MALR has

updated its estimate of the area cultivated with rice in 2012/2013 to about 714 TH, estimates the rice area was

about 1 million HA but experts estimated total real harvested area was 880.000 ha.

Consumption: Rice consumption remains relatively constant given that Egyptians prefer wheat-based

products. Forecasts total rice consumption to increase slightly in 2013/14 to about 4 MMT, up from 3.9 MMT

in 2012/13. The Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade’s GASC is responsible for procuring rice for the

national ration card program. Egypt’s ration card program provides 2 kg/month of rice at the subsidized price

of LE 1.5/kg ($0.22/kg) to over 64 million people (76% of the population). Approximately 1.1MMT of rice is

distributed annually to ration card holders.

To date the government has only allocated half of (paddy) rice procurement funds, with the GASC

procuring about 503 TMT of local paddy rice. Only 2 export tenders have been approved since the export ban

was lifted; one for 101.5 TMT in October (for export prior to the end of November 2012) and another for 188

TMT in December (for export prior to the end of January 2013) for a combined total of 289.5 TMT. Bowing

to exporters’ requests, we expect that MOIFT will announce the 3rd

tender during the coming month. Tenders

are awarded by the MOIFT to companies that offer the highest export license fees. For the December tender,




66 companies offered export license fees ranging between LE 75 to 152/MT. Only a total of 195 TMT or 67%

of the authorized total has been exported.

Finally there are strong rumors the local supply of rice is short and it will a possible zero export

official Announcement soon

Broken export with zero import tax to EU quota will remain open as usual together with Rice smuggling

through the borders estimated close to 1 Mio Mt milled rice

Imports quota for broken 2013/14 not yet claimed by EU

AUSTRALIA

The lack of winter rainfall across rice production areas has failed to top up irrigation water storages

with the result that some irrigation areas have less than 50% allocation available between November and

January. Long term weather predictions are for less than average rainfall and higher than average

temperatures over the Australian summer which is likely to reduce rice plantings as growers are discouraged

by potentially high water prices.

Based on current and forecast seasonal conditions estimated Rice production for 2013-14 has been

reduced from just over 1MMT to 917,000MT. Updated data indicates that rice imports for 2012-13 have been

higher than previously forecast.

Total imports for 2012-13 have been revised up by 40% to 140,000MT.

Domestic consumption is expected to remain stable in 2013-14.

Rice exports for 2013-14 have been revised down by four percent to 500,000MT.

INDONESIA

Production:

Forecast 2013/14 rice production at a record 59 MMT. Record production is attributable to adoption of

new, higher yielding varieties. 2012/13 production remains at 57 MMT.

Planting areas starting in mid October- November. As a result, most rice plantings on Java are expected for

late October/early November, 2013. Some plantings in Central Java and Southern Sumatera are expected to be

delayed into November due to limited rainfall, while farmers in the Bengawan Solo River region in East Java

were able to start plantings in mid October. Given this timing, Indonesia’s first main harvest, which

contributes between 55 and 60 percent of total national paddy production is expected to take place between

February and April 2014. Ministry of Agriculture will assign a state-owned company to manufacture and

distribute rice seed.

Indonesia is expected to import 1 MMT of rice in 2012/13 and 1.5 MMT in 2013/14.

Indonesian regulations only permit the Indonesian logistics agency (BULOG) to import medium grain staple

rice. Private importers are allowed to import specialty rice such as japonica, basmati, etc.

Imports are tied directly to BULOG’s ability to procure sufficient quantities of domestically produced rice at

state prices. In 2012/13, BULOG‘s procurement target is 3.2 MMT. They are equally required to hold 2 MMT

in stocks by the end of the year. As of October 2013, BULOG had achieved its procurement goal and held 2.7

MMT of stocks.

Given these factors, it is unlikely that BULOG will require high imports in 2012/13.

Imports remain at 1 MMT, the majority of which is specialty rice. As of July 2013, specialty imports had

reached 430,000 MT. There is still uncertainty over 2014 rice imports, which are currently set at 1.5 MMT.

While political considerations during an election year may drive import down or up imports




Consumption: Indonesia is the 4th most populous nation in the world with a population of roughly 240

million people. As a result, 2012/13 rice consumption is stable over the 2011/12 year at 39.55 MMT, while

2013/14 has expanded slightly to 39.8 MMT in response to population growth.

The GOI increased the 2012/13 total rice allocation for the rice for the poor program (raskin) to 3.5 MMT.

This decision was taken partly to offset increased fuel prices. Under raskin, rice will be distributed to over 15

million families at the subsidized rate of Rp. 1,600/kg. Each family will be entitled to 15 kg of rice per month

over a 15 month period. As of mid October 2013, BULOG distributed 2.8 MMT of rice through the raskin

program. BULOG also sold 99,000 MT of rice on the commercial market during the January-October 2013

period, in order to help drive down domestic rice prices.

CAMBODIA

Rice Exports

Monthly 2010 2011 2012 2013

1. January 10,012 6,798 9,703 25,730

2. February 13,644 5,089 14,417 24,100

3. March 5,062 12,534 12,310 45,400

4. April 17,287 17,946 15,036 23,280

5. May 5,499 20,520 13,115 28,345

6. June 17,990 4,274 13,426 29,100

7. July 15,030 12,703 20,527 31,400

8. August 5,997 20,404 15,530 29,360

9. September 4,744 14,384 15,169 29,400

10. October 6,078 19,067 16,967 28,000

11. November 7,988 9,559 25,189 37,800

12. December 9,645 44,905 34,328 --

Total Yearly 105,260 201,900 205,100 332,000

Main Destination : France 51.000 mt, Poland 53.000 mt, Netherland 23.000 Mt, China 18.500 mt

INDIA AROMATIC RICE – New Delhi

Physical market ex mill in Rps/100 kgs

2 September 24 December 2013

Pusa-1121 (steam) Rs 8,100 8400

Pusa-1121 (sela -parboiled) Rs 7,650 7500

Pure basmati (raw-milled) Rs 8,650 12500 ($ 2160/Mt ex Mill)

Duplicate basmati (steam) Rs 6,600 7300

Brokens White Pusa-1121, Rs 3,600 NQ




Broken White Tibar Rs 4,200 NQ

Broken White Mongra Rs 2,950 NQ

Non-basmati

Sharbati (Steam) Rs 4,500-4,600 5000

Sharbati (Sela) Rs 4,300. 4500

Permal (raw) Rs 2,300-2,350 2300

Permal (sela) Rs 2,300 2350

PR-11 (sela) Rs 2,900 3100

PR-11 (raw) Rs 2,750 2950

PR14 (steam) Rs 3,100 3200

Arrival 22 Dec 2013:

5,000 bags of PR paddy

20,000 bags of Pusa-1121 paddy

4,000 bags of Sharbati paddy

INDIA –EXPORTS

Immediately after the US/EU-Iran interim agreement was signed on November 24, there were

widespread concerns that India’s basmati exports to the Islamic republic will take a hit.

Since the 2011 sanctions, Iran has been increasingly depending on Indian exports of the cereal. Now, with the

prospects of the West relaxing sanctions, Indian exporters fear the country might not buy as much as it did

earlier.

Shortly after the pact was signed, the “export sentiment” for the 1121 Basmati variety to Iran turned

bearish. Many felt Iran may divert business to Pakistan and Thailand. But that might be a knee-jerk

presumptive reaction. The fact is the prospect of increased basmati rice export to Iran and more exports of

non-basmati rice to Nigeria and Bangladesh may further strengthen India’s exports of this cereal in 2013-14.

Trade with Iran: Rupee depreciation has provided India with a cutting edge. The country’s number one rank

in global rice shipments is likely to be maintained — about 10-11 million tons (mt), or approximately 30%

share in the global trade of 35 mt.




India is uniquely placed to utilize Rs 50,000 crore (or $8 billion) held in UCO Bank on Iran’s account.

Pakistan and Thailand lack such a facility. The U S sanctions on Iran’s oil exports remain intact, neither have

curbs on banking been relaxed. The lifting of all restrictions would depend upon the signing of a

comprehensive agreement.

Meanwhile, the Shia-Sunni rift in the Muslim world can rock the interim agreement. Pakistan is closely

aligned with Sunni Saudi Arabia, which has opposed this rapprochement. Any accommodation by Iran of

Pakistan would mean implicit support to Saudi’s ally, which is highly unlikely.

Moreover, India’s global basmati exports are 3-3.5 mt/annum. Iran’s annual import requirement of

basmati rice is 1.7-2 mt , while India’s supplies to the country have increased from 0.5 mt to 1.1 mt in the past

the 4 years, with better price realization. In 2013-14, India’s share could be about 80% of Iran’s import of rice

— about 1.4-1.5 mt. This reliance cannot be dismantled overnight. On the contrary, dependence on Indian

cereal can increase — especially with the new hybridized paddy 1509 with better yield and lower costs. In

2012-13, Pakistan’s total basmati rice export to 96 countries was 0.63 mt, according to Rice Exporters’

Association of Pakistan. The country supplied only 43,000 tons to Iran. Its monthly shipments are around

3,600 tons, against the Indian average of approximately 100,000 tons.

In the absence of a smooth banking arrangement with Pakistan, ideological differences, lack of

research capacity, quality issues and persistent power shortages, Pakistani rice cannot match the Indian 1121

variety. Thailand has been a supplier of superior quality non-basmati rice (NBR) to Iran. Its Hom Mali

(fragrant rice) export virtually stopped after 1121 was introduced.

Iran and Indian shippers use certain blends of Indian basmati and long grain NBR to lower fob values.

On July 25, 2013, Iran sourced 2,50,000 tonnes of NBR (white rice) at $520/tonne fob, and not the fragrant

variety. Any small revival of Hom Mali cannot replace the preference for 1121.

With Nigeria : In November, Nigeria slashed “effective” import duty on non-basmati rice from 144%

to about 44% for the arrival of vessels in December 2013-January 2014. Export tax arbitrage with

neighbouring Benin has ceased. The new duty regime is for 2 months, but what happens later is anyone’s

guess.

Nigeria imports 2.5-3 million tons NBR-parboiled (PB) annually, mostly from India, Thailand, and Brazil.

Direct Nigerian imports from India are about 0.8 mt in 2012-13.

In addition, Nigeria’s neighbour Benin has been used as a base-country for import via Cotonou of about 0.5

mt of Indian rice to Nigeria. Thus India accounts for about 50% (1.3 million tons) of Nigeria’s rice imports

that may rise to 70-75% in 2013-14.

Indian par-boiled rice costs $400/ton fob as against $470/ton in the case of Thailand. Prominent

Nigerians buyers are keen to secure Indian arrivals at least till Nigeria retains its low duty regime. Indian

shippers are in a hurry to dispatch their parboiled rice and even diverting their cargos on high seas from

Cotonou to Lagos. About a quarter million tonnes is contracted additionally by prime Nigerian importers in

end November-early December 2013 with Indian shippers.

Bangladesh’s needs:

The Government of Bangladesh (GOB) needs import of 0.5 mt of rice immediately of 15% parboiled

variety. India is commercially and strategically well placed to meet this demand. But the India and

Bangladesh governments are not able to conclude a G-to-G deal. Reasons: FCI stocks need up gradation and

repackaging, special pricing and several other issues. Past dealings of PSUs with private players on a back-to-

back basis have been controversial due to procedural reasons.

Indian open market prices are the lowest on delivered basis to Bangladesh. The Bangladesh

government has no alternative but to import from private Indian suppliers, where Indian bidders compete on

best market price (and not FCI).




Thailand does not have significant availability of 15% broken parboiled rice. Pakistan may not be

successful in quoting competitive tenders while competing with India.

All Bangladesh has to do is to follow internationally accepted practices, rather than customised tendering

conditions prone to defaults and rent seeking.

INDIAN paddy STORAGE




USA

The weekly export sales report showed a disappointing 12,900 tons.

This could have been due to things other than just weak sales: timing of reports, weather holding up barges,

early holidays, etc.

In any case, we will have to see what the next few weeks show us – into January.

Less than a thousand tons of long grain paddy were posted, and long grain milled sales were only 4,800 tons

headed mostly to Mexico, the United Kingdom, and Canada.

Medium/short rough and brown each posted 100 tons, and medium/short milled showed 7,300 tons

sold, primarily to Turkey, Lebanon, Canada, and Japan.

Physical exports for the week were on track at a solid 63,600 tons, of which 36,800 tons were long

grain rough shipped to Mexico (21,400 tons), Costa Rica (12,300 tons), and Honduras (3,200 tons). Long

grain milled shipments were light at 2,800 tons mostly to Mexico and Canada. Medium/short grain milled and

rough shipments totalled 23,800 tons, with Japan loading out 12,500 tons, followed by Jordan and 4,900 tons,

south Korea with 2,900 tons, and Canada with 1,400 tons; Turkey also shipped out 300 tons of rough.

Shipments may well slow down during the Christmas holidays.

Colombia Rice Export Quota, Inc. (COL-RICE) today announced the auction schedule for certificates

to ship U.S. rice duty free to Colombia under the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. The agreement

provides for annually increasing amounts of U.S. rice to enter Colombia duty free through 2029, after which

U.S. rice will face zero import duties. Revenue generated by COL-RICE from the auction of certificates is

split 50-50 with the U.S. and Colombian rice industries.

USA supply to Columbia

Metric Tonnage Auction Date Shipping Period

Auction 1 60,412 MT Feb. 3, 2014 Feb. 3 - June 30, 2014

Auction 2 12,540 MT June 5, 2014 July 1 - Oct. 15, 2014

Auction 3 13,318 MT Oct. 16, 2014 Oct. 16 - Dec. 31, 2014

Department of Agriculture’s Commodity Credit Corporation announced the following prevailing

world market prices of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields and location, and the resulting

marketing loan-gain (MLG) and loan deficiency payment (LDP) rates applicable to the 2013 crop, which

became effective at 7:00 a.m., 22 Dec 2013

World Price ($c/cwt)

Milled Value Rough Loan Rate

Long-Grain 18.67 12.03 6.50

Medium-/

Short-Grain 18.30 12.39 6.50

Broken 12.79

http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001ZYt6bGSY_gEREBiq_Tw-EFdJB4s5vZY8n4qzxifkpIekA6vrWwx92OmJpcUURZQxt-f5qQocVAkTrmxlN5s2xmVK4tjH6sBIQ7YR_VCFudEbyFfaZYJBgKb3aHho86-czGYX0m9twg2e3ivlLYu4E1XBrHVfWemuK_Zc29FV9e8qQrr21FQ4WbPo1quBVKQ3l9Tah7qur6V1OnAZZKW3s3M6B_gg-WsIrde-cNTB6VktBG9iNiqqiuTHP0SVRN6RwmRSBcFA2KuWfIp-G3iNwXeGGc7pkkOkwEnXrVKHN8WGB-R-VsBexCH93M5yNtTbLVt38RRjEB904sqElSKQIH94rXA1nPSodShYK7dUMxtCa7QaZhiDai1XE5-jgGQxlGxzloDpF7V95xLXnr9tV4h1RqvyAaerThFBigEZlFGA6MsEHQhrXA==&c=3Ivd-zOxavndlGba3sofxgSa0nvdoiG4ZGJ_3PHy8GV5JBrAKuRvHQ==&ch=e9xp_iIN69UcuWpB5PD6uug8l8fIjgZvzMQxn0dmHmr3WntedOtltw==




VIETNAM

Export October

2013

WR 5

MT

WR 10 WR15 WR 25 Broken Jasmine

others

Total Mt

Milled

Rice

ASIA 80.000 1550 72.000 29.100 16800 53.000 319.000

AFRICA 74.100 29200 42.400 10.700 159.000

EUROPE & CIS 6.200 7.900 3.000 3.000 7.000 26170

AMERICAS 5.000 6.000 11.000

AUSTRALIA 100 400 500

Total 165.500 2.000 109.000 74.000 20.000 72.000 517.300

Vietnam-Italy trade to reach 3.3 billion USD this year

Two-way trade between Vietnam and Italy is expected to reach 3.3 billion USD in 2013, according to

the Vietnamese Trade Counselor in Italy. Vietnam’s export value to Italy is estimated at 2.2 billion UDS

while importing 1.1 billion USD worth of goods from the country. Export products to Italy include

telephones, footwear, clothes, coffee, and seafood products while machines, equipments, animal food, textile

materials, leather and pharmaceutical products are imported from Italy.

Up to date, Italia has 49 valid investment projects in Vietnam with a total registered capital of 257.2

million USD, ranking 29th

among 101 countries and territories investing in Vietnam. The projects focus on

major areas of processing, agro-forestry and fisheries, wholesale and retail sectors. Italian-funded projects

have been implementing in 13 localities nationwide, mainly in Ho Chi Minh City, Vinh Phuc and Binh Duong

provinces.

Agriculture earnings grow despite rice, coffee plunge

Exports earnings from agricultural, forestry and fisheries products in the first 11 months of the year

recorded a 1.5% increase year-on-year, reaching US$25.2 billion. Director of the Ministry of Agriculture and

Rural Development’s Informatics and Statistics Centre, said the situation was not all positive because of a

sharp drop in key exports, such as rice, coffee and rubber.

However, exports of pepper, cashews, timber and aquatic products had grown higher. In the period,

export turnover of key agricultural staples was estimated at $12 billion, a fall of 11.3% from last year. Fishery

exports rose 9.1% and forestry products, 19.2%.

The volume of rice exports fell 16.1% to 6.29 tons and the value fell to $2.78 billion, a drop of18.8%.

China remained Viet Nam’s largest rice importer, taking 31.1% of Viet Nam’s total rice exports. Exports rose

5.1% to 1.92 million tons, worth $800.7 million.

Total rubber exports in the period surged 5.4% to reach 955,000 tons. They were valued at $2.24

billion, down 12.2%. Rubber exports to China made up 43.4% of the total. However, during the period it

bought 3.9% less in volume and 19.7% in value.




Malaysia was the second largest importer of Vietnamese rubber, accounting for 21.1% of all exports.

The export of tea fell 5.3% to 128,000 tons while the value was down 0.1% at $206 million.

Pakistan remained Viet Nam’s largest tea importer, but its imports fell 10.7% in volume and 6.5% in

value. Taiwan bought 2% more tea than it did in the same period one year ago.

The volume of coffee exports fell 14.4% during the period to reach 1.18 million tons worth $2.51

billion, a 24.4% year-on-year decrease. Germany and the United States continued to be Viet Nam’s largest

coffee importers, accounting for 13% and 10.8% respectively. Coffee exports to Russia grew 4.7 %; to

Britain, 4.7%; and to Japan, 4% from last year.

Cashew exports were a bright point in the export scene. Volume surged 17% to 238,000 tons and the

value rose 10.1% to $1.49 billion.

The US, China and Holland remained Viet Nam’s biggest cashew importers with growth rates of 33.2

%, 17.2% and 9.9% respectively. the volume and value of cashew exports to Singapore soared 59.3% and

43.4 % respectively.

Forestry and fisheries staples surged against the same period last year. Exports of timber and timber

products topped $4.87 billion, up 15.8% from last year. Exports to South Korea were up 47.2 %; to China,

33.1%; to Japan, 22%; and to the US, 9.3%.

VENEZUELA

Rice: According to producers, overall paddy production in 2013/2014 is estimated to be slightly higher

reaching 567,000 tons as weather conditions were favourable during both planting and harvesting in

Portuguesa and Guárico, the two most important rice producing States in Venezuela.

Agri. Experts reported no change in area harvested in 2013/2014, resulting in greater than expected

yields. Rice farmers are also suffering from high costs of production due to a serious lack of basic inputs. The

situation is likely to get worse before it gets better, resulting in possible contractions of planted area and a

drop in production. Production continues to be insufficient to cover the country’s consumption needs and

more imports are expected.

Rice consumption in 2013/2014 remains unchanged. In 2013/2014, expected imports to reach 400,000

tons from 370,000 tons, as previously reported, to cover increased consumption needs as the better-than-

expected production won’t be sufficient to cover total demand.

Rice millers report that inventories in October 2013 are uncomfortably low. They are milling the last

of the domestic summer harvest and are waiting for imports purchased by the government.

2 government shipments from Guyana of 5,000 MT each and two from Uruguay of about 23,000 MT

are currently unloading rough rice and milled rice at Puerto Cabello.




COLOMBIA

A return to more normal weather patterns have enabled better than expected rough/paddy rice yields in

Colombia. Rough/paddy rice production estimates from 1.7 to 1.9 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing

year 2012/13. After implementation of the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA), the United

States has taken over almost 100% of the licit import market share of rice trade to Colombia. Trade in illegal,

contraband rice is recognized by the Government of Colombia (GOC), millers and producers as a significant

threat.

Trade

Colombia’s rice imports are primarily from neighboring countries, such as Ecuador, Peru and

Venezuela, averaging about 85,000 MT since 2000. The tariff-rate-quota (TRQ) for the United States

established under the CTPA was 82,555 MT in 2013 and will be fully subscribed with some imports out of

quota. Colombian Rice Industry Association, the head of the special office to address smuggling presented

data on captures of illicit agricultural trade, including about 1,400 MT of contraband rice from Ecuador and

Venezuela. Total illicit rice imports are estimated to be around 300,000 MT annually.

BRAZIL RICE

Production:

2012/2013 production is estimated at 7.99 mmt, up marginally from last year. Production for

2013/2014 is forecast at 8.3 mmt. New cold-resistant seed varieties are increasing yields in the state of Rio

Grande de Sul.

Trade:

In 2012/2013, Brazil shipped 93 thousand metric tons of paddy rice to Venezuela, Nicaragua, and

Costa Rica. The industry states that shipping paddy is not a priority and traders will fill market demands as

necessary. Iraq recently announced that it will accept Brazil origin rice in its rice tenders and imported 29 tmt

of Brazilian rice in 2012. For 2013/2014 rice exports are forecast at 1 mmt.

Consumption:

For 2012/2013 and 2013/2014, milled rice consumption is placed at 7.85 mmt and 7.9 mmt,

respectively. Emerging middle class Brazilians in the South and Southeast regions of the country are

increasingly turning to pastas and other wheat-based products, as they consider rice to be an inferior good.

However, rice is still a staple food in Brazil’s North and Northeast regions, and demand from these regions is

essentially maintaining overall consumption.

BRAZIL crops trend

Brazilian Farmers will increase the soybean sowed area every year Soybean, wheat and decrease the Rice

paddy unless the local farm-gate price will change.




Production

000 Mt

2010

2011

2011

2012

2012

2013

2013

2014

Foreca

st

Prod

Level

Mt/ha

Paddy

$/mt

Ex

farm

Income

Farm

gross

$/ha

Input

cost $

Ha

max/min

Gross

Result

$/ha

Milled

Rice

7.888 8.000 8.300 Av

Max

5.55

7.00

304 1687

2128

1550

1850

137

278

End Year

Stocks

540 705

Wheat 5.800 4.300 4.750 Max 3.62 302 1093 760

750

333

Corn 73.000 81.000 72.000 Avrg

Max

5.5

6.5

175 962

1050

900

950

62

100

Soy bean

Production

66.500 83.500 85.500 Avrg

Max

2.85

3.2

528 1504

1689

950

1000

554

689

Area Soy

bean 000

ha

25.000 27.500 28.500

Soy bean

Export

33.800 32.000 39.900 4.000

Soy Bean

Meal

export

14.100 14500 13.900

Soy bean

Oil export

1.630 1.750 1.688

PADDY RICE PRODUCER per Ha worldwide

Mt paddy /ha

World average 2012/13 4.38 Per year /ha /average

China 6.60 2 crops Indica

1 crop Japonica North

Japan 6.74 1 crop Japonica

South Korea 6.76 1 crop Japonica

Vietnam 5.68 3 crops Indica

Uraugay 7.5 1 crop Indica

Rio Grande Do Sul Brazil 7.1 1 crop Indica

Brazil average N to S 5.02 1 crop Indica

Italy /Spain 7.33 1 crop Japonica

Egypt 8.79 1 crop Japonica /Indica

Peru 7.76 1.5 crop Indica

India 3.55 3 crops Indica

Thailand 2.85 3 crops Indica

Usa 7.92 1 crop Indica /Japonica

Iran 4.24 1 crop Indica /japonica




KOREA RICE

Korea’s rice production in 2013 is revised slightly downward to 4.23 million tons from the initial

Korean government’s estimate of 4.24 million tons. This revised production estimate still represents a

increase of 5.6 percent over last year. The increase in production is due largely to favourable weather since

September despite unfavourable weather through August coupled with a steady decline in acreage planted, the

lowest since 1980.

Imports 2013/14 estimated at 410.000 mt lowest than last year 600.000 mt

Ending stocks at 863.000 Mt considerably high on a 730.000 mt average

RICE CHINA ON TERRACES

Re planting Rice Field Italy 1960 paint

inside the rice (short) no. 27 dec 2013+… · inside the rice (short) no. 27 dec 2013 gaotrade...

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