presented to

presented byCambridge Systematics, Inc.

Transportation leadership you can trust.

Innovative Tour-Based Truck Travel Model using Truck GPS Data

TRB SHRP2: Innovations in Freight Demand Modeling and Data Improvement – Second Symposium

October 21, 2013

Arun Kuppamco-authored by Jason Lemp, CS Dan Beagan, CS Vladimir Livshits, MAG Lavanya Vallabhaneni, MAG Sreevatsa Nippani, MAG

Overview

2

Why?

• Truck trip diary surveys are expensive, with poor response rates

Who?

• Third party commercial GPS vendors

What?

• Deploy GPS units and collect GPS records from truck fleets

How?

• Process GPS data to obtain truck trips and tours

Where?

• CS applied in Los Angeles, Chicago, Phoenix, Baltimore

• Example focuses on specifics from the Phoenix experience

Commercial Vehicle GPS Data

3

GPS information should be processed before it can be used for truck travel models

Condition of dissemination is that truck ID’s are anonymized

Entities (e.g., ATRI) collect and store historical GPS from operators (2004 to present)

Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL); Events Activated Tracking Systems (EATS); Fleet Telematics Systems (FTS)

Truck fleet operators subscribe to GPS services for operational and maintenance purposes

GPS devices are widely deployed in cell phones, autos, and trucks

ATRI Data Specifics

4

Cost for one month of data – $10K

ATRI was purchased to supplement heavy truck (FHWA Classes 8-13) trip diary surveys

3.5 million positional records from 22,000 trucks

Close to 60,000 truck tours

Heavy Trucks

Large Sample of

Trucks

Relatively Cheap

5

 All Trucks April 2011

GPS Events 3,429,603Truck Trip Ends ??Truck Tours 58,637Trucks 22,657

Truck GPS Data from PhoenixAll Trucks in April 2011

ATRI GPS April 2011ATRI GPS All Truck IDsApril 2011

6

Truck GPS Data from PhoenixOne Truck in April 2011

One Truck(ID 357042) April 2011

GPS Events 719Truck Trip Ends ??Truck Tours 40Trucks 1

ATRI GPS Truck ID 3570452April 2011

7

Truck GPS Data from PhoenixOne Truck on April 1, 2011

ATRI GPS Truck ID 3570452April 1, 2011

One Truck (ID 357042)

April 1, 2011

GPS Events 25Truck Trip Ends ??Truck Tours 1Trucks 1

8

Truck_ID Date Time Longitude Latitude Event

Trip Distance (miles)

Time From Last (min)

Time To Next

Min)

Speed From Last

(MPH)

Speed To Next (MPH) Event Type  TAZ  LU Last Next

357042 4/1/2011 3:47:08 A.M. -112.1695 33.4353 3 0.06 6.39 - 12.87 0.21 29.79 First Starting 884Indus-

trial357042 4/1/2011 4:00:00 A.M. -112.2637 33.4838 4 6.39 2.53 12.87 2.63 29.79 57.6 moving    357042 4/1/2011 4:02:38 A.M. -112.2689 33.52 5 2.53 4.56 2.63 11.1 57.6 24.67 moving    357042 4/1/2011 4:13:44 A.M. -112.3409 33.5475 6 4.56 0.00 11.1 0.27 24.67 0.42 Stopping    

357042 4/1/2011 4:14:00 A.M. -112.3408 33.5475 7 0.00 0.06 0.27 2.1 0.42 1.78 stopped 413Indust-

rial

357042 4/1/2011 4:16:06 A.M. -112.3398 33.5475 8 0.06 0.22 2.1 6.5 1.78 2.01 stopped 413Indust-

rial

357042 4/1/2011 4:22:36 A.M. -112.3381 33.5447 9 0.22 0.03 6.5 0.63 2.01 2.64 stopped 413Indust-

rial

357042 4/1/2011 4:23:14 A.M. -112.3377 33.5449 10 0.03 0.02 0.63 0.23 2.64 4.07 stopped 413Indust-

rial

357042 4/1/2011 4:23:28 A.M. -112.338 33.5449 11 0.02 0.01 0.23 39.17 4.07 0.01 stopped 413Indust-

rial

357042 4/1/2011 5:02:38 A.M. -112.3381 33.5449 12 0.01 0.05 39.17 20 0.01 0.15 stopped 413Indust-

rial

357042 4/1/2011 5:22:38 A.M. -112.3383 33.5456 13 0.05 0.13 20 7.37 0.15 1.08 stopped 413Indust-

rial

357042 4/1/2011 5:30:00 A.M. -112.3385 33.5475 14 0.13 5.22 7.37 15 1.08 20.88 Starting 413Indus-

trial357042 4/1/2011 5:45:00 A.M. -112.2673 33.5009 15 5.22 7.53 15 15 20.88 30.11 moving    357042 4/1/2011 6:00:00 A.M. -112.1391 33.4804 16 7.53 0.30 15 1.23 30.11 14.61 moving    357042 4/1/2011 6:01:14 A.M. -112.1345 33.4784 17 0.30 0.00 1.23 0.17 14.61 1.45 Stopping    357042 4/1/2011 6:01:24 AM -112.1346 33.4784 18 0.00 0.00 0.17 1.23 1.45 0.07 stopped 745 Landfill357042 4/1/2011 6:02:38 AM -112.1346 33.4784 19 0.00 0.03 1.23 80.6 0.07 0.02 stopped 745 Landfill357042 4/1/2011 7:23:14 AM -112.1351 33.4784 20 0.03 0.03 80.6 10.4 0.02 0.2 stopped 745 Landfill357042 4/1/2011 7:33:38 AM -112.1345 33.4785 21 0.03 0.04 10.4 0.87 0.2 2.91 stopped 745 Landfill357042 4/1/2011 7:34:30 A.M. -112.1344 33.4791 22 0.04 2.98 0.87 10.5 2.91 17.04 Starting 745 Landfill357042 4/1/2011 7:45:00 AM -112.1692 33.4472 23 2.98 0.83 10.5 3.9 17.04 12.77 Moving    

357042 4/1/2011 7:48:54 A.M. -112.1702 33.4352 24 0.83 0.00 3.9 13.77 12.77 0.01 Stopping 884Indus-

trial357042 4/1/2011 8:02:40 AM -112.1702 33.4352 25 0.00 - 13.77 - 0.01 - Last Stopped    

Processing of One Truck TourPrimary Anonymized Data Processed Data

9

Processing of One Truck Tour

Truck_ID Date Time Longitude Latitude Event

Trip Distance (miles)

Time From Last (min)

Time To Next

Min)

Speed From Last

(MPH)

Speed

To Next (MPH)

Event Type  TAZ  LU Last Next

3570424/1/2011

3:47:08 A.M. -112.1695 33.4353 3 0.06 6.39 - 12.87 0.21 29.79

First Starting 884

Indus-trial

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

3570424/1/2011

4:13:44 A.M. -112.3409 33.5475 6 4.56 0.00 11.1 0.27 24.67 0.42 Stopping    

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

3570424/1/2011

5:30:00 A.M. -112.3385 33.5475 14 0.13 5.22 7.37 15 1.08 20.88 Starting 413

Indus-trial

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

3570424/1/2011

6:01:14 A.M. -112.1345 33.4784 17 0.30 0.00 1.23 0.17 14.61 1.45 Stopping    

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

3570424/1/2011

7:34:30 A.M. -112.1344 33.4791 22 0.04 2.98 0.87 10.5 2.91 17.04 Starting 745

Land-fill

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

3570424/1/2011

7:48:54 A.M. -112.1702 33.4352 24 0.83 0.00 3.9 13.77 12.77 0.01 Stopping 884

Indus-trial

… … … … … … … … … … … … … … …

Primary Anonymized Data Processed Data

One Truck (ID 357042)

April 1, 2011

GPS Transition Events 6Truck Trip Ends 4Truck Tours 1Trucks 1

One Truck (ID 357042)

April 1, 2011

GPS Events 3Truck Trip Ends 3Truck Tours 1Trucks 1

10

Truck GPS Data from PhoenixProcessing of One Truck on April 1, 2011

Processed One Truck

April 1, 2011

Truck Trip Ends 3Truck Tours 1Trucks 1

ATRI GPS Truck ID 357402 - April 1, 2011 – Actual Stops

11

Truck GPS Data from PhoenixTAZ of Trip Ends for One Truck on April 1, 2011

Processed One Truck

April 1, 2011

Truck Trip Ends 3Truck Tours 1Trucks 1

Industrial

Industrial

Land Fill, Sand, Gravel

12

Truck GPS Data from PhoenixLU of Trip Ends for One Truck on April 1, 2011

Industrial

Landfill, Sand & Gravel

Industrial

Processed One Truck

April 1, 2011

Truck Trip Ends 3Truck Tours 1Trucks 1

Trip- and Tour-Based Truck Models

13

Origin (Truck Home Base)

Stop 1 (Warehouse)

Stop 2 (Retail)

Stop 3 (Household)

Stop 4 (Home Base)

Stop 5 (Retail)

Stop 6 (Retail)

Destination (Home Base)

Origin/ Destinati

on

Stop 1 (Warehous

e)

Stop 2 (Retail)

Stop 3 (Househol

d)

Origin/ Destinati

on

Stop 5 (Retail)

Stop 6(Retail)

Truck Trip Ends (7 trips, 6 LU) Truck Tours (2 tours, 6 LU)

Truck Tour-Based Model Structure

Tour Generation

Heavy truck tour rates by industry type

14

Stop Generation ModelPredicts number of stops on each truck tour

1 to 11 Stops

1 Stop

2 Stops

3 Stops

……

11 Stops

15

Available Set of Choices Decision Making Variables

Outputs = Number of stops made on tour (any value between 1 & 11)

Model Structure = MNL

Starting LU of the tour

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

-7-6-5-4-3-2-101

No of Stops by Industry Type

constrfarmgovtwareindother

No of Stops

Utili

ty

Tour Completion ModelPredicts if truck returns to home base

Tour complete or not

Yes

No

16

Available Set of Choices Decision Making Variables

Outputs = Tour is complete or not

Model Structure = Binary Logit

No of stops by industry type

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Tour Completion by No of Stops

FarmHhldGovtWareIndRetOther

No of Stops

Utili

ty

Stop Purpose ModelPredicts purpose of stop

1 of 10 Stop Types

Retail

Constr.

Farming

Resid.

Govt.

Warehs.

Transp.

Office

Industrial

Service

17

Available Set of Choices Decision Making Variables

Outputs = One of 10 stop purpose types

Model Structure = MNL

Previous purpose type

Accessibility to employment

No of stops on tour

Tour purpose type

Log (1 + stop sequence no.)

Stop Location ModelPredicts location TAZ of each stop

TAZ 1 to 3,000

TAZ 1

TAZ 2

TAZ 3

……

TAZ 3000

18

Available Set of Choices Decision Making Variables

Outputs = Location TAZ of each stop

Model Structure = MNL

Travel time between stops

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Impact of Travel Time on Utility

1 Stop Tour2 Stop Tour3 Stop Tour5 Stop Tour8 Stop Tour11 Stop Tour

Travel Time (minutes)

Utili

ty

Stop TOD Choice ModelPredicts TOD of each stop

1 of 24 hours12-1 am

1-2 am

……

11 pm – 12 am

19

Available Set of Choices Decision Making Variables

Outputs = One of 24 hour intervals

Model Structure = MNL

Indicator for tour completion

Travel time between stops

No of stops on tour

Departure shift variable

Time / No of stops remaining

20

Initial Findings

Retail

Constr

uctio

n

Farming

House

holds

Govern

ment

Wareho

use

Transp

ortati

onOffic

e

Indus

trial

Service Tota

l0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Number of Stops by Tour Type

TargetModel

No o

f Sto

ps

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617181920212223240%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

TOD of First Stop

Model Target

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 230%2%4%6%8%

10%

TOD of Subsequent Stops

Model Target

Ret Cns Frm Min Hhs Gov War Trn Off Ind Srv0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Stop Purpose Distribution

ModelTarget

Stop Purposes

Perc

ent o

f Sto

p Pu

rpos

es

21

Next Steps

Perform more rigorous model calibration and validation

Determine adequacy of GPS data both in terms of sample sizes and biases

Implement truck tour model and compare with trip-based model applications

Acquire GPS data for medium trucks and develop a medium truck tour model

22

Conclusions

Truck model parameters are difficult and expensive to obtain

by surveysTruck tour-based models require large samples by industry type