innovation, learning, and sustainability a framework for thinking about the universe, you, and...

Innovation, Learning, and Sustainability

A Framework for Thinking about the Universe, You, and Foresight in a World of Accelerating Technological Change

Ten Years HenceMendoza College of BusinessJan 2009 University of Notre Dame

John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies FoundationSlides: accelerating.org/slides.html

Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto

AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

© 2009 Accelerating.org

Acceleration Studies Foundation: Who We Are

ASF (Accelerating.org) is a small nonprofit community of scholars (est. 2003) exploring accelerating change in:1. Science, Technology, Business, and Society

(STBS), at

2. Personal, Organizational, Societal, Global, and Universal (POSGU) levels of analysis.

Accelerating Change 2005, Stanford University




Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do

We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) futures studies, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Convergent and predictable developmental forces and

trends that direct and constrain our long-range future and 2. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices we

may use to create unique and creative paths (many of which will fail) on the way to these highly probable developmental destinations.

Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include:– Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity

in our global sociotechnological systems– Increasing technological autonomy, and – Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-

digital interface.



Evo Info Devo (EID) Triad: At Least Three Universal Telos (Values/Goals/Drives/Ethics) Exist in Complex Systems

Three functional processes(telos) can be observed in:

Physical Systems Chemical Systems Biological Systems Societal Systems Technological Systems Our Universe as a System



Acceleration Quiz

Q: Of the 100 top economies in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states?



Acceleration Quiz

Q: Of the 100 top revenue generating entities in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states?

76 MNC’s and 24 Nations.

GBN, Future of Philanthropy, 2005



Acceleration Quiz

Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth? (296 million Americans in 2005)



Acceleration Quiz

Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth?

Roughly 110 million Americans in 1997, when his net worth was $40 billion. At $30 billion presently (2005), Mr. Gates ranks roughly as the 60th largest country, and the 55th largest business. When MSFT went public in 1986, Bill was worth $230 million.

NYU economist Edward Wolff (See also Top Heavy, 2002)



Acceleration Quiz

Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________?



Acceleration Quiz

Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________?

Three minutes for Disney.Twenty minutes for Sony.

Elizabeth Debold, What is Enlightenment?, March-May 2005

Our Topics

1. Foresight Development 2. Evolution and Development 3. The Evo Info Devo Triad 4. Our Global Goal: Sustainable Innovation 5. Accelerating Change 6. Automation and Tech Curves 7. 2020-2050 Scenarios

Foresight DevelopmentWhat It Is and Why You Want It



Foresight / Futures Studies - Overview

● Foresight, also known as futures studies (FS) is a transdisciplinary educational program that seeks to reliably improve one's ability to anticipate, create, and manage change.

● It can be practiced in a variety of domains (scientific, technological, environmental, economic, political and societal), on a variety of levels/scales (personal, organizational, societal, global, universal), and with a variety of disciplines/specialties (theories and methods).

● Anticipating, creating, and managing change in our increasingly fast-paced, technological and globalized world is a difficult yet worthy challenge.



Three Primary Foresight Domains:Futures, Development, and Acceleration

Futures Studies – “Possible, Probable, & Preferable” change

(scenarios, trends, strategy) Development Studies (Developmental inevitability)

– Predictable and statistically irreversible change (emergences, phase changes)

Acceleration Studies (Accelerating developments)– Sustained exponential growth, positive feedback,

self-catalyzing, increasingly autonomous processes

Each of these is seeing a resurgence of interest in today’s fast-paced and poorly modeled world.

Nevertheless, there are few primary academic programs in FS to date (12 total, after thirty years), and none in DS or AS (by name at least).



Inglehart’s Developmental Values Map: Do All Cultures Migrate to the Upper Right, On Diff. Evolutionary Paths?

Examples:

Secularism (human-derived values)

Ecumenicalism (seeing wisdom in all faiths)

Rationality (logic+empiricism)

Self Expression

Subjective Well Being

Quality of Life

Sustainability

World Awareness

Future Orientation

Political Moderation

Interpersonal Trust

Casualness

worldvaluessurvey.orgIt may be that everyone ends up like Sweden, more or less.



Foresight Development:Twelve Types of Futures Thinking

Social Types Preconventional Futurist Personal Futurist Imaginative Futurist Agenda-driven Futurist Consensus-driven Futurist Professional Futurist

Methodological Types Critical Futurist Alternative Futurist Predictive Futurist Evo-devo Futurist Validating Futurist Epistemological Futurist

See: accelerationwatch.com/futuristdef.html

\Fu"tur*ist\, n. One who looks to and provides analysis of the future.

http://www.accelerationwatch.com/futuristdef.html



ASF’s Primary & Secondary Foresight Ed Specialties

Primary Foresight Specialties (24) Secondary Foresight Specialties (24)

Alternative FuturesCross Impact and Pattern AnalysisCritical Futures and CLADevelopment and Acceleration StudiesEmerging Issues/ Technology AnalysisEthnographic FuturesForecasting and Modeling (basic)Foresight Frameworks and FoundationsHistory and Analysis of PredictionHorizon Scanning and Competitive Intell.Images of the FuturePersonal Futures/ Foresight DevelopmentPrediction MarketsPredictive Surveys/ DelphiRoadmappingScenario Development and BackcastingScenario PlanningStrategic ForesightSystems ThinkingTranshumanist/ Ethics of Emerging TechTrend Extrapolation and Learning CurvesVisioning, Intuition, and CreativityWeak SignalsWildcards

Actuarial Science and Risk AssessmentCognitive and Positive PsychologyCollaboration, Facil., and Peace/Conflict StudiesComplexity, Evo Devo and Systems StudiesCritical and Evidence-Based ThinkingEthics and Values StudiesEvolution StudiesForecasting and Modeling (advanced)Futures, Sci-Fi, Utopian, and Dystopian Lit StudiesInnovation and Entrepreneurship StudiesIntegral Studies and ThinkingInvesting and Finance (Long-Term)Leadership Studies and Organizational DevelopmntLibrary Science, KM, and Decision SupportLong-Range and Urban PlanningPolitical Science and Policy StudiesProbabilistic (Statistical) PredictionPreferential Surveys/Polls and Market ResearchReligious Studies (Future Beliefs)Science and Technology StudiesSocially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Mgmt.Sociology, Demographics and Social ChangeStrategic PlanningSustainability Studies

Other Foresight-Related Specialties (45, a partial list) Anthropology | Architecture | Astrobiology | Biological Sciences | Bioethics | Biotechnology | Business Administration | Chemical Sciences | Cliometrics | Computer Modeling and Simulation | Computer Science | Contemporary/Cultural Studies | Cybernetics | Decision Analysis/Decision Theory | Defense/National Security Studies | Development | Disaster/ Catastrophic Risk Management | Economics and Econometrics | Education | Engineering | Evolutionary Biology | Game Theory | Gambling Studies | Generational Studies | Geography | History | History and Philosophy of Science and Technology | Information Science | Investing and Finance (Short-Term) | Knowledge Management | Library Science (general) | Management | Management Science | Media and Communications | Marketing | Mathematics | Operations Research | Philosophy | Physical Sciences | Psychology (general) | Psychographics | Statistics (general) | Technology Policy | Tourism | Urban Studies



Primary and Secondary Specialties Classified by Amara’s 3P’s/Evo Devo Foresight Framework

Roy Amara's 3P's framework can be used to group specialties that explore the Possible future (what could happen), the Preferable future (what we want) and the Probable future (what seems likely, even in spite of our personal plans). This is also an Evo Devo framework, dividing foresight into "Evolutionary" (possible), "Developmental" (probable), and "Evo Devo" (preferable) futures.




Three Primary Foresight SkillsFuture Creation, Discovery, and Management

Futures Studies is concerned with “three P’s and a W”, or Possible, Probable, and Preferable futures, plus Wildcards (low-probability but high-impact events).

In other words, futurists try to create, discover, and manage (“CDM”) the future.

Creation (“Possible”)– personal, collective, and entrepreneurial tools and strategies

for imagining and creating experimental futures, innovation, exploratory research and development, creative thinking, social networking

Discovery (“Probable” and “Wildcards”)– forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, history of

prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems theory, risk analysis, marketing research

Management (“Preferable”)– environmental scanning, competitive intelligence, networking,

scenario development, risk mgmt (insurance), hedging, enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and time management systems, positive-sum outcomes



The Cone of Possible Futures: Cultures of Foresight Continually Tell, Test, Sort, and Improve their ‘Stories of the Future’

Present

Impossible

Implausible

Plausible

Probable

Preferable

The Possible can be usefully divided into the Plausible and the Implausible.

The Preferable always includes a little of both the Implausible and the Impossible.




Where are the U.S. Undergraduate Courses in Foresight Development?

Tamkang University 27,000 undergrads Top-ranked private

university in Taiwan Like history and

current affairs, futures studies (15 courses to choose from) have been a general education requirement since 1995.

Why not here?



University of Advancing Technology

Dynamic Private University,

Innovative Programs,

Technology-Focused.

Tempe/Phoenix, AZ

1400 Students

Mission: To educate students in the fields of advancing technology to become innovators of the future.

14 Bachelors Degrees

MS in Technology Studies

MS in Artificial Life Programming

Evolution and DevelopmentTwo Fundamental Processes of Change



Evo Devo Universe: For Scholars of Evolutionary and Developmental Processes in the Universe

EvoDevoUniverse.com is a global community of physicists, chemists, biologists, cognitive and social scientists, technologists, philosophers, and complexity and systems theorists who are interested in better characterizing the relationship and difference between evolutionary (mostly unpredictable) and developmental (significantly predictable) processes in the universe and its subsystems.


Improving foresight through better theories of universal change.




Evolution: A Tentative Definition

Evolutionary processes in biology, and perhaps also in physical, chemical, cultural, technological, and universal systems, are stochastic (random within constraints), creative, divergent (variation creating), contingent, nonlinear, and unpredictable.

This intrinsic unpredictability may be our most useful quantitative definition and discriminator of evolutionary processes at all systems levels.

Note: Evolution is NOT natural selection, in this definition. Its fundamental dynamic is change and variation (within constraints). It is a creativity generator, and thus a precursor to natural selection.

Example: Genetic drift in neutral theory (Kimura 1983; Leigh 2007).




Development: A (Tentative) Definition

Developmental processes in biology, and we assume also in physical, chemical, cultural, technological, and universal systems, are directional, hierarchical, constraining, convergent, integrative, self-assembling/self-organizing, and statistically predictable if you have the right empirical or theoretical aids.

This systemic predictability may be our most useful quantitative definition and discriminator of developmental processes at all systems levels.

Development also has a cyclical hierarchy: birth, growth, maturation, reproduction, senescence, death (recycling).

Note: Development is NOT natural selection, in this definition. It is convergent unifier, and thus a specialized outcome of natural selection.

Examples: Differentiation, STEM compression, ergodicity, evolutionary homoplasy, modularity, hierarchy, self-similarity, scale invariance, self-org., stigmergy, niche construction, etc.




Evo Devo Universe hypothesis

Evo-devo biology seeks to resolve the differences between evolutionary and developmental processes spanning the scales of cells, organisms and ecologies (Carroll 2005, many others).

Recalling Teilhard’s (1955) evocative phrase, ‘cosmic embryogenesis,’ if the Big Bang acts like a seed, and the expanding universe like an embryo, it must use both stochastic, contingent, and local/micro ‘adaptational’ processes—what we are calling evolution—in its elaboration of form and function, just as we see at the molecular scale in any embryo.

Embryos also transition through a set of statistically predictable, convergent, and global/macro differentiation milestones, then reproduction, senescence, and the unavoidable termination of somatic (body) life—what we are calling development.

If the evo devo analogy has homology, there must be unpredictable creativity and predictable developmental milestones, reproduction, and ending to our universe.




An EDU Analogy: Genetically Identical Twins and Parametrically Identical Universes

• In genetically identical twins, organogenesis, fingerprints, brain wiring, learned ideas, behaviors, many local, microscopic processes are unpredictably unique in each twin (Jain 2002). Yet many global, macroscopic processes are predictably the same.

• Would parametrically identical universes also be mostly and locally unique, yet with predictable global and macroscopic similarities? This is a question for future simulation science.

The Hypothesis: (Predictable and conservative) development is always different from but works with (unpredictable and creative) evolutionary processes. Both seem fundamental to universal complexity.



Evo Devo Universe? – An Article

We can begin to model our universe as an information processing, evolutionary and developmental systemas an evo info devo universe (abbrev. evo devo universe hereafter). Our framework will try to reconcile the majority of unpredictable, evolutionary features of universal emergence with a subset of potentially statistically predictable and developmental universal trends, including:

Acceleration in universal complexity (e.g. Aunger 2007), a pattern seen over the last half—but not the first half—of the universe’s history

Increasing spatial and temporal locality of universal complexity development

Hierarchies of increasingly matter and energy efficient and matter and energy dense ‘substrates’ (platforms) for adaptation and computation

The apparent accelerating emergence, on Earth, of increasingly postbiological (technological) systems of physical transformation and computation.

Smart, John M. 2008. Evo Devo Universe? A Framework for Speculations on Cosmic Culture. In: Cosmos and Culture, Steven J. Dick (ed.), NASA Press (est. 2009).




Evo Info Devo (EID) Process: Cartoon Model I

Assumption: A universe of information (computationally complex patterns of physical STEM as adapted structure), with evolution and development as complementary modes of information processing in all complex adaptive systems, including the universe as a system.




““Experimentation”Experimentation”Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation,Chaos, Contingency,Early Species Radiation(Mostly Nonadapted)Stochastic SearchStrange AttractorsRadiation

Development

‘Right Hand’ of Change

Evolution

‘Left Hand’ of ChangeWell-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’

““Convergent Unification”Convergent Unification”Main Actor: EnvironmentLife Cycle, STEM Compression,Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,‘Evolutionary’ Convergence,Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Dissipative Structures,Positive Sumness/Synergy,Niche Construction/Stigmergy, Self-Organization (Global Adaptation) Environmental OptimizationStandard AttractorsHierarchy

““Natural Selection”Natural Selection”Main Actor: Organism Modularity, Responsiveness,Plasticity, Intelligence(Local Adaptation)Requisite VarietyMixed AttractorsAdaptation

Info (EvoDevo)

(Intersection)

Evo Info Devo (EID) Process: Cartoon Model II




Evo Info Devo (EID) Examples:Experimentation + Selectionism + Unification

‘Quantum Darwinism’ in the transition from quantum to classical physics (Blume-Kohout and Zurek 2005)

Stellar nucleosynthesis (Wallenberg) Biogenesis (Smith and Morowitz 2006) Multicellularity (Newman and Bhat 2008) ‘Neural Darwinism’ in brain development (Edelman 1989) Cognitive selectionism (thinking) (Calvin 1985) Evolutionary psychology (Wright 1998) Cultural, ‘memetic’, and ‘technetic’ selection (Aunger) Evolutionary computation and artificial life (Koza) Cosmological natural selection (Smolin 1992)




Evolution and Development in Universal Terms: A Table and a Some Key Conjectures

Some Key Conjectures:

Evolution is intelligence/information accumulation.Development is intelligence/information preservation.

Evolution causes ongoing unpredictability and novelty.Development causes cyclic predictability and stability.

Evolution drives most unique local patterns.Development drives most predictable global patterns.

Life, Intelligence, the Universe and You and I actively use both evo and devo processes in order to thrive.

The more consciously we are aware of this, the more we can understand, value, and work with both.

Each has different and often conflicting processes and aims. Both are critical to our life, society, and the universe.




Evo Devo Theory in Politics:Innovation vs. Sustainability (Both are Fundamental!)

Evo devo theory argues for process balance in political dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability

Developmental sustainability without continuous change/creativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, and adaptive weakness (Maoism).

Evolutionary creativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, and volatility that is not naturally stable/recycling (Unregulated Capitalism).




Evo Devo Theory in Politics:Republican vs. Democrat (Both are Fundamental!)

Evo devo theory suggests that both Republican and Democratic platforms bridge the evo devo political center in two complementary ways. That would make each integral, fundamental dialogs (among other integral evo devo mixes) that are likely to be long-term stable all cultures.

Republicans are Devo/Maintenance/Tradition on Social-Political IssuesEvo/Innovation/Freedom on Economic Issues

Democrats areEvo/Innovation/Freedom on Social-Political IssuesDevo/Maintenance/Tradition on Economic Issues

The Evo Info Devo TriadUniversal Values for Complex Systems?




““Experimentation”Experimentation”Main Actor: Seed Replication, Variation,Chaos, Contingency,Early Species Radiation(Mostly Nonadapted)Stochastic SearchStrange AttractorsRadiation

Development

‘Right Hand’ of Change

Evolution

‘Left Hand’ of ChangeWell-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’New Computational Phase Space ‘Opening’

““Convergent Unification”Convergent Unification”Main Actor: EnvironmentLife Cycle, STEM Compression,Ergodicity/Comp. Closure,‘Evolutionary’ Convergence,Path-Dependence/Hierarchy, Dissipative Structures,Positive Sumness/Synergy,Niche Construction/Stigmergy, Self-Organization (Global Adaptation) Environmental OptimizationStandard AttractorsHierarchy

““Natural Selection”Natural Selection”Main Actor: Organism Modularity, Responsiveness,Plasticity, Intelligence(Local Adaptation)Requisite VarietyMixed AttractorsAdaptation

Info (EvoDevo)

(Intersection)

Evo Info Devo (EID) Process: Cartoon Model II



Three functional processes(telos) can be observed in:

Physical Systems Chemical Systems Biological Systems Societal Systems Technological Systems Our Universe as a System

Using the EID model, we can look at complex adaptive systems as either: 1. Info Systems (making their evo and devo processes implicit), 2. Evo Devo Systems (making their info processing implicit), or3. Evo, Info and Devo Systems (keeping all three perspectives explicit).

Evo Info Devo (EID) Triad: At Least Three Universal Telos (Values/Goals/Drives/Ethics) Exist in Complex Systems



Innovation, Learning and Sustainability: They Are Not Phases, But Lifestyles.Systemic Imbalances in Western Society

We think Creativity is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. We emphasize it only in the first five years of life, and don’t try to develop it systematically during this phase or much after. Exceptions: Montessori, Waldorf.

We think Learning is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. It starts in “school” and ends when we “graduate.” Nevertheless, we get no training for innovation and sustainability behaviors to come. Exceptions: Continuing ed, personality assessments, lifelong learning communities, policies, metrics, and tests.

We think Sustainability is a “phase,” not a lifestyle. It starts when we graduate and get a job. It also takes a very narrow view of the term (org., economic and status quo ‘sustainability’). It neglects, not only personal, national and global sustainability, but also innovation and learning behaviors during and after our careers.




Evo Devo Foresight:Some Implications of the EDU Framework

Our History, Present, and Future can be rewritten as:– Evolutionary choices (Evo, 95%), developmental forces

(Devo, 5%) and the Learning/Simulation increase (Info, 100%) from their interaction

Evo, Info, and Devo Teleology. Innovation, learning, and sustainability goals, drives, and values constrain humans and our tech, and will constrain AIs to come.

Sustainable Innovation. Devo and evo polarized countries, parties, and people exist. We need both.

Seed, Org, Envir (SOE) Intelligence Partitioning. – Biological immortality is a major, mistaken fantasy– We need a new theory of identity/intelligence



Evo Devo Foresight:Some Implications of the Framework - II

Hierarchy and Acceleration. – We are in a purposeful, accelerative, emergent process.– Humans aren’t the end of the line. We will ‘pass the baton.’

STEM Compression will continue on Earth– Human cities will only get more STEM efficient/dense– STEM dense tech (nanotech) will continue to deliver

unreasonable returns Inner Space increasingly encompasses Outer Space

– Increasing importance of the human mind and heart (education, beliefs, philosophy) in culture, politics, economics

– Increasing growth in the value and capacity of the virtual, increasing virtual-physical and human-machine interface

– Importance of ‘gardening’ our technological extensions (they are the next inner space), and guiding their interaction with the current inner space (human consciousness).



Who Are You, In Relation to the Universe?An Evo Info Devo Speculation

A very complex and special piece of the universe, evolved and developed by the universe,

here to create (evo), sustain (devo), and understand (info) the universe from your own perspective,

and to form unproven beliefs (evo), tentative philosophy (info) and proven science (devo) about

those things you don’t understand.

Our Global Goal: Sustainable InnovationA Universal Value Set?



The Costs of Accelerating Social Innovation:The Rise and Fall of Complex Societies

Mesopotamia, “Cradle of Civilization” (Modern Iraq: Assyrians, Babylonians, Sumerians) 6000 BC – 500 BC. Mineral salts from repeated irrigation, no crop rotation decimated farming by 2300 BC). Fertile no more.



Rise and Fall: Nabatea

Petra (Nabateans), 400 BC – 400 CE (Jordan: trading experts, progressively wood-depleted overirrigated, and overgrazed (hyrax burrows)

Jared Diamond, The Third Chimpanzee, 1994

Rock Hyrax(burrows are vegetation

time capsules)



Rise and Fall: Anasazi

Chaco Canyon and Mesa Verde (Anasazi), 800 – 1200 CE (New Mexico, Colorado: trading, ceremonial, and industry hubs, wood depleted (100,000 timbers used in CC pueblos!), soil depleted (Chaco and Mesa Verde). No crop rotation. Unsupportable pop. for the agrotech.

Cliff Palace, Mesa Verde, COPueblo Bonito, Chaco Canyon, NM



Dominant Empire Progression-Combustion (Phase I: Near East-to-West)

BabylonianEgyptian (New Kingdom)Hellennistic (Alexander)

RomanBritish

Spanish

French

AustriaGermany



Empire Developmental Progression: (Phase II: America to Asia)

American

Japan(Temporary: Pop density,Few youth, no resources.

East Asian Tigers(TaiwanHong KongSouth KoreaSingapore)

India

ChinaExpect a Singapore-style “Autocratic Capitalist” transition. Population control, plentiful resources,stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital. U.S. science fairs: 50,000 high school kids/year. Chinese science fairs: 6,000,000 kids/year. Science is a strongly positive-sum game.

BHR-1, 2002



China Inc: The Next Economic Frontier

Annual average GDP growth of 9.5% (Some urban areas up to 20%!)

Largest global producer of toys, clothing, consumer electronics. Moving into cars, computers, biotech, aerospace, telecom, etc.

1.5 billion hard workers “greatest natural resource on the planet.”

High savings, factory wages start at 40 cents/hour

45,000 Taiwanese Contract Factories in China

20,000 European Contract Factories 15,000 U.S. Contract Factories



World Population, 10,000 BC to 2000 AD:Birth and Growth

Positive feedback loop: Agriculture, Colonial Expansion, Economics, Scientific Method, Industrialization, Politics, Education, Healthcare, Information Technologies, etc.



World Population, 1950-2050: Maturing and Saturation



Big Question: If World Pop. is Saturating, & Energy Use Saturates with Income, Will Total Global Per Capita Energy Use Saturate?

In biological systems, energy flow stabilizes when a developmental phase is completed.

When will the development of our cybertwins outcompete development of our planet’s physical infrastructure?

When will per capita energy use become sustainability issue globally? It already is in sentinel countries like Switzerland (2,000-Watt Society).(Ausubel, J.H. et. al. (1988) Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy. Climatic Change 12:245-263)

http://phe.rockefeller.edu/co2-methane/co2-methane.pdf

http://phe.rockefeller.edu/co2-methane/co2-methane.pdf



Climate Sustainability and “Renewistan”: A Collossal Undertaking

Avg global citizen uses 2,000 watts. Europeans 6,000 watts. Americans 12,000 watts.Preindustrialization Atmospheric CO2: 296 ppm. Today: 385 ppm.Global TPES 16 tera(trillion)watts. 85% of this is fossil fuels, 15% renewables.What would limit increase to 450 ppm (and est. 2 °C temp increase?)To stop us at 450 ppm we’d have to reduce fossil fuel use to 3 terawatts by 2035. We

presently get 0.5 tw from hydro, 1 from nuclear.Renewable Energy “Wedge Strategy” Commitments If No Other Strategies: 2 tw from photovoltaic: “100 square meters of 15-percent-efficient solar cells

installed every second (30,000 sq. miles/yr x 25 yrs).” 2 tw from solar thermal: “50 square meters of 30-percent-efficient systems installed

every second (600 sq. miles/yr x 25 yrs).” 2 tw from wind: “One 300-foot-diameter wind turbine every five minutes

(105,000 turbines/yr x 25 yrs).” 2 tw from geothermal: “Three 100-megawatt steam turbines every day

(1,095 turbines/year x 25 yrs).” 3 tw from nuclear: “A three-reactor, 3-gigawatt plant every week

(52 plants a year x 25).”The land area needed for all these renewables (“Renewistan”) would occupy an area

the size of Australia and involve multi-trillion dollar global commitments.

Brand, S. (2009) Saul Griffith, “Climate Change Recalculated,” Long Now Blog.Morrow, K.J. (2008) Switzerland and the 2,000-Watt Society, Sustainability 1(1):32-33.



Socolow Wedges and Climate Mitigation: Fortunately a Range of Other Strategies Also Exist

Pacala S and Socolow R (2004) Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies, Science 305(5686):968-972.



Global Energy Consumption per Capita Saturation (Energy Intensity)

When per capita GDP reaches:• $3,000 – energy demand explodes as

industrialization and mobility take off,

• $10,000 – demand slows as the main spurt of industrialization is completed,

• $15,000 – demand grows more slowly than income as services dominate economic growth and basic household energy needs are met,

• $25,000 – economic growth requires little additional energy.

Later developers, using “leapfrogging technologies”, require far less time and energy to reach equivalent GDP.[1]

1. Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001;2. Exploring and Shaping International Futures, Hughes and Hillebrand, 2006, p. 29.

Alternative measure: In recent decades, global energy consumption has been growing increasingly slower than GDP (1% 1.5% ??).[2]



Saturation Example:Total World Energy Use

DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the 1970’s. Real and projected total consumption is progressively flatter since.

Saturation factors: 1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973)2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new

generation of technological system3. Saturation of human population and

human needs for tech transformation

Royal Dutch/Shell notes that energy use declines dramatically proportional to per capita GDP in all cultures.

Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg. the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand for lighting in half over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of energy demand.

Expect such STEM efficiencies in energy technology to be multiplied dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energy-effective in ways very few of us currently understand.



Tech Development:Finding and Funding the Bottlenecks

Li-Ion Nanobattery What Might This Enable?

80% recharge in 60 seconds

80X faster recharge (hi amp).

Duty to 2,500 vs 500 cycles

5X increase in duty length

Better at temp extremes

Cost competitive

Toshiba (2005)

A123/De Walt (2008)

New consumer wearable and mobile electronics Military apps (FCS) Plug-in hybrids at home and filling stations (“90% of an electric vehicle economy”)

“The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson



Our Electric Future: Coal & Natural Gas Gen., Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles

Nanobatteries can make electric car recharging almost as fast as gas tank filling. Tomorrow's capacitance-enhanced power grids have the ability to be even more decentralized than today's gasoline stations. Such decentralization will support even greater city densities.

“Driving Toward an Electric Future,” John Smart, 2006

Natural gas, already 20% of US energy consumption, is the fastest growing and most efficient component.

Nanobatteries recharge 80% in 60 seconds,keep 99% of their duty after 1,000 cycles.

180+ mpg Prius. 34 miles on battery only.



Innovation, Patents, and Policyin Large vs. Small Companies

Large companies have an incentive to innovate and patent, but no incentive to implement unless:

a. Others can get around their innovation-blocking patentsb. Political efforts to eliminate or slow competition are failingc. Existing product lines are presently being threatenedd. Another large company is implementing (rare occurrence)

Toyota has announced a 100 mpg hybrid (the 1/X). They have no incentive to produce it until another big carmaker is doing the same. Meanwhile Toyota will lobby the US government to lower CAFÉ 2020 targets from 35 to 32 mpg. Laughable but grim.

Car co’s form innovation-blocking “partnerships” to promote premature, controllable, slow-to-deploy tech (H2 fuel cells) vs. effective, low-barrier-to-entry tech (electrics and plug-in hybrids).

Toyota will develop but won’t deploy a next-gen plug-in hybrid until forced to by other giants, rapidly growing small carmakers, or some other factor. Big leader’s strategy: “innovate and wait”

Some Solutions:Minimize oligopolies, mergers, size concentrationsLower barriers to entry (promote creative destruction) in industryMandate tough and increasing performance standardsLitigate against collusions to delay mandated technologies.Promote consumer information and informed buying decisionsPromote buying consortiums based on performance specsPromote corporate transparencyPromote public stock ownership

Toyota’s 1/XConcept Car (2007)

1/3 the weight 2X the fuel efficiency

of the Prius



IP as an Innovation Rate Regulator: Lessons of Bose (2000) and Microvision (2003)

Innovation diffusion prevented due to overly restrictive IP policy (often due to philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation).



Great U-Turn:Re-emergence of Class Society in the U.S.

Wage and salary earnings reflect shared prosperity through 1972. Between then and now we have seen a growing inequality.

Percent Change in Earnings Since 1961

Tabulations of annual March Current Population

Survey Data, by David Ellwood, Harvard University.



Trend: Avg US literacy scores projected to decline between 1992 and 2030, and increase in inequality.

America’s Perfect Storm, ETS, 2007

Less Proficient More Proficient

A Flatter Curve Means More Inequality

In 1992, 70 million Americans out of 255M (27%) had ≤ Level 2 LiteracyBy 2030, 119 million Americans out of 363M (32%) will be in this Category



Big Companies are Necessary But Counterinnovative,So Fund Small and Mid-Size Companies Wherever Possible



Central Paradoxes of an Evo Devo Planet:Sustainable Innovation and Creative Destruction



S-Curves and Creative Destruction

New Old Europe (Network 1.0)Newly Creatively Destructive

Spain’s Recent Creation of Two-Tier Workforce. “McJobs” Under 40). (20 5% Unemployment)Ireland, New E.U. (10 on flat tax)

New Asia (Network 1.0)Very High CD Index

Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, etc.

United States (Network 0.8)50% CD Index

50% of top 25 companies no longer top after 25 years.We are IT-challenged vs. Asia

Japan (Network 1.0)Old Europe (Mfg 3.0)Low/Very Low CD Index

Germany (13% unemployment)Italy (11% unemployment)France (10% unemployment)



“Green Flyer” Sustainable Mobility InnovationSuper Shuttle + Comfort Cab + Amenities

Marketing “The door-to-door airline alternative.” “Your inner and inter-city shuttle bus. For trips 8 hours or less.” “Free Wi-Fi, Movies, and First Class Sleeper/Work Seats.” “1/3 the cost, 5X better passenger MPG. Handle your own luggage gently.” “No ripoffs for last minute bookings. No cellphone/laptop bans. No TSA!”

Details Dodge (Mercedes) Sprinter conversions (like UPS conversion above). Super Shuttle automation (GPS and computerized routing systems). 210 passenger mpg (avg. 140 for buses, 40 for planes, 35 for solo cars). Five doors/side, nine passengers, each in visually separable compartments Four point harnesses (so you can sleep in a reclining position). Air shocks, seat shocks, and seat springs (3 layers of vibration insulation) Luggage stored directly above you, viewable through roof and lockable. Natural gas (60% of CO2, 80 cents less / gal. equiv). Proofs of Concept: Megabus, CA Shuttle Bus.Deserves Federal Leadership (Subsidies, Initial Marketing)Tens of billions in annual consumer savings, efficiencies.



Analyzing Change: Look at Both Explicit Sectors and their Implicit ILS Capacities

‘Implicit’ (Capacity-Based, Cognitive) Systems

‘Explicit’ (Tech, Econ, Politics, Society) Systems

(Science &)Technology

Power & WealthStructures

(Political & Economic I & L Capacity)

Aspirational Values & Needs

(Laws,Goals,Norms)

Actual Values & Needs(Culture,Behavior)

John Stutz, Tellus Institute, 2008

Economy Governance Demographics


Infrastructure& Knowledge(Technical & Social

I & L Capacity)



Innovations and Learning that May Take Us to the Next Level of Sustainability

Science, Technology, Engrg, & Math (STEM) A national report card on “Technical Productivity” growth. Far more important

than GDP growth. We are “taxing the machines” (Faraday) far more than each other. Our annual National and Global growth in real technical wealth is far more important than growth in abstract economic wealth. Money is fiat, fickle and a proxy. Technical productivity/ intelligence is concrete. It is our primary survival variable.

Economy Dethrone Wall Street. 70-80% of our economy is private business, which need not

be short-term and growth-at-all-costs oriented, (public companies). Democratize/ improve access to private equity markets, social responsibility investing. 50% corp. tax reduction for US manufacturing. Require use of Other People’s Money by public corps to include invest. by corp. mgmt (skin-in-the-game). More corp. transparency.

Governance Accelaware govt leadership. Tie global development to zero (intrinsic) population

growth and tech productivity growth metrics. Revisit the constitution once a generation (Jefferson). More representative democracy (no electoral college, more parliamentary model). Politicians must fundraise 80% from (represent) their own districts, no prior campaign war chests, two-term limits.

Demographics Immigrate! Three million / yr x 40 yrs. US pop. 400-500M in 2050. End the “lazy

politician’s immigration system” currently in effect. Close the border, give easy asylum path for current illegal immigrants. Expand and clarify immigrant classes (guest worker, resident alien, citizen). Make 50% meritocratic. Allow many formal paths to citizenship (standard, PhD, business creation, political asylum, etc.). First and second gen. immigrants make the small businesses, learn and innovate harder. Recognize them for these natural advantages.


Discussion What Do You Think?

innovation, learning, and sustainability a framework for thinking about the universe, you, and...

Documents

system slide

future of complex systems

accelerating change

lowest networth americans

stanford university

developmental trends

accelerating intelligence

model of change