Championing Nanotech Innovation: Championing Nanotech Innovation: Lessons LearnedLessons Learned

Presented by Christine Peterson Presented by Christine Peterson Vice President, Foresight InstituteVice President, Foresight Institute

Accelerating Change 2004Accelerating Change 2004

November 2004November 2004

© Foresight Institute 2004© Foresight Institute 2004

www.foresight.orgwww.foresight.org

What is nanotechnology?What is nanotechnology?

• Creating and using structures, devices, and Creating and using structures, devices, and systems that have useful properties and systems that have useful properties and functions because of their structure at the 1 to functions because of their structure at the 1 to 100 nanometer size100 nanometer size

• Today, same as chemistry and materials Today, same as chemistry and materials science (sexy marketing term)science (sexy marketing term)

• Longer-term: combines with mechanical Longer-term: combines with mechanical engineering to give molecular manufacturingengineering to give molecular manufacturing

Funding levels risingFunding levels rising

• U.S. Nanotech Nanotech Initiative $3.7 billion U.S. Nanotech Nanotech Initiative $3.7 billion over 4 years (plus military) authorizedover 4 years (plus military) authorized

• European Union and Japan gov’ts spending European Union and Japan gov’ts spending roughly similar to U.S.roughly similar to U.S.

• Other Asian nations, Australia, Israel also Other Asian nations, Australia, Israel also competing. India wants in.competing. India wants in.

• China has cost advantageChina has cost advantage

• Increasing amounts being spent in private Increasing amounts being spent in private sector; figures vary widely; can rationalize sector; figures vary widely; can rationalize almost any numberalmost any number

Near-term products (< 5 yrs):Near-term products (< 5 yrs):Mostly materialsMostly materials

• Drug delivery, medical implants, sensors (bio Drug delivery, medical implants, sensors (bio & chemical), solar energy (photovoltaic or & chemical), solar energy (photovoltaic or direct hydrogen production), batteries, direct hydrogen production), batteries, displays & e-paper, nanotube and displays & e-paper, nanotube and nanoparticle composites, catalysts, coatings, nanoparticle composites, catalysts, coatings, alloys, insulation (thermal & electrical), filters, alloys, insulation (thermal & electrical), filters, glues, abrasives, lubricants, paints, fuels & glues, abrasives, lubricants, paints, fuels & explosives, textiles, hard drives, computer explosives, textiles, hard drives, computer memory, optical components, etc.memory, optical components, etc.

• Not an integrated “industry” — incremental Not an integrated “industry” — incremental products in many industriesproducts in many industries

Near-term: NanoparticlesNear-term: Nanoparticles

• Just one sector of today’s nanotechJust one sector of today’s nanotech

• Positive example: gold-coated particles with Positive example: gold-coated particles with biological functionality bind to tumor cells and biological functionality bind to tumor cells and then heated, to treat cancerthen heated, to treat cancer

• Concerns about unwanted side effects. Concerns about unwanted side effects. Recent result: control of toxicity by designRecent result: control of toxicity by design

• Regulatory agencies need awareness and Regulatory agencies need awareness and expertise: environmental protection (EPA), expertise: environmental protection (EPA), occupational safety (OSHA), food and drug occupational safety (OSHA), food and drug (FDA). Process has begun, not complete.(FDA). Process has begun, not complete.

• Similar to regulation of new chemicalsSimilar to regulation of new chemicals

Tools for looking ahead to Tools for looking ahead to advanced nanotechadvanced nanotech

• Laws of physicsLaws of physics

• Laws of economicsLaws of economics

• Laws of human natureLaws of human nature

• Result: technological advance to the limits Result: technological advance to the limits allowed by natureallowed by nature

• Process does not result in a time estimateProcess does not result in a time estimate

• Does result in 4th generation nanotech: Does result in 4th generation nanotech: nanoscale productive systemsnanoscale productive systems

Feynman, 1959Feynman, 1959

“ “The principles of physics, as far as I can see, do The principles of physics, as far as I can see, do not speak against the possibility of maneuvering not speak against the possibility of maneuvering things atom by atom. It is not an attempt to things atom by atom. It is not an attempt to violate any laws; it is something, in principle, violate any laws; it is something, in principle, that can be done; but in practice, it has not been that can be done; but in practice, it has not been done because we are too big.”done because we are too big.”

There’s Plenty of Room at the BottomThere’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom

Molecular manufacturingMolecular manufacturing

• New way of viewing matterNew way of viewing matter

• Today, can have atomic precision Today, can have atomic precision oror large large complex structures, not bothcomplex structures, not both

• Want Want bothboth at the same time at the same time

• Goal: Direct control down to molecular level, Goal: Direct control down to molecular level, not indirect control as today (e.g. drugs, not indirect control as today (e.g. drugs, surgery) for products of any sizesurgery) for products of any size

• Can change/repair structure of all physical Can change/repair structure of all physical things including human bodythings including human body

Basis of advanced nanotech:Basis of advanced nanotech:Molecular machinesMolecular machines

• Found in nature (e.g. molecular motors)Found in nature (e.g. molecular motors)

• Now learning to design and build new Now learning to design and build new molecular machine systemsmolecular machine systems

• Goal: nanosystems for manufacturing Goal: nanosystems for manufacturing complex, atomically-precise products of any complex, atomically-precise products of any size (from cubic-micron mainframes to aircraft size (from cubic-micron mainframes to aircraft carriers)carriers)

• Digital-style control of matter: patterning it as Digital-style control of matter: patterning it as today we write a CDtoday we write a CD

Differential gear (cutaway)Differential gear (cutaway)

Standard confusions about Standard confusions about molecular machine imagesmolecular machine images

• Mistaken for artist’s conceptions (“pretty Mistaken for artist’s conceptions (“pretty pictures”)pictures”)

• Mistaken for final, immutable designs, which—Mistaken for final, immutable designs, which—if not perfect now—invalidate molecular if not perfect now—invalidate molecular machine systems conceptmachine systems concept

• Actually: examples of designs possible with Actually: examples of designs possible with today’s tools plus conservative engineering today’s tools plus conservative engineering assumptions: “something assumptions: “something likelike this should work, this should work, after iteration”after iteration”

Fine motion controller, Fine motion controller, partialpartial

Atom contact bearing modelAtom contact bearing model(~2 nanometers)(~2 nanometers)

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are needed to see this picture.

Convergent assembly using Convergent assembly using highly parallel systemshighly parallel systems

Molecular manufacturing of Molecular manufacturing of nanosystems (4th gen.)nanosystems (4th gen.)

• Extreme decrease in direct manufacturing Extreme decrease in direct manufacturing costs (not including insurance, legal, IP costs (not including insurance, legal, IP licensing, etc)licensing, etc)

• Extreme decrease in pollution: “zero waste” of Extreme decrease in pollution: “zero waste” of materials, minimum use of energymaterials, minimum use of energy

• Extreme increase in device complexity Extreme increase in device complexity possible (e.g. medical nanorobots)possible (e.g. medical nanorobots)

Lessons learned (1976-2004)Lessons learned (1976-2004)

• The following are some lessons learned at The following are some lessons learned at each stage of the nanotech process to dateeach stage of the nanotech process to date

• Should be useful for other areas of substantial Should be useful for other areas of substantial innovationinnovation

• Some things we did right and succeeded with Some things we did right and succeeded with — some we did wrong and paid the price— some we did wrong and paid the price

Extremely early research Extremely early research stage (late 70’s, early 80’s), stage (late 70’s, early 80’s), pre-competitivepre-competitive

• Few will understand, no matter what you doFew will understand, no matter what you do

• Don’t worry about someone stealing your Don’t worry about someone stealing your ideas — no one is paying attentionideas — no one is paying attention

• Call your new field by a name that no one will Call your new field by a name that no one will want to redefine (not too sexy or generic)want to redefine (not too sexy or generic)

• Publish in refereed journalsPublish in refereed journals

• Write technical booksWrite technical books

• Avoid the popular press and publicAvoid the popular press and public

Very early research stage Very early research stage (80’s), still pre-competitive(80’s), still pre-competitive• Hold invitational workshops to find the few Hold invitational workshops to find the few

others who “get it”others who “get it”− Invitational to keep out the flakesInvitational to keep out the flakes

• Teach a Stanford class on your work so that a Teach a Stanford class on your work so that a Steve Jurvetson will attend and later fund Steve Jurvetson will attend and later fund relevant workrelevant work− Not a jokeNot a joke

• Publish proceedings, refereed journals articlesPublish proceedings, refereed journals articles

• Write technical booksWrite technical books

• Avoid the popular press and publicAvoid the popular press and public

Early research stage (early Early research stage (early 90’s), still pre-competitive90’s), still pre-competitive• Engage with gov’t research funding process, Engage with gov’t research funding process,

play the gameplay the game− Lots of funding sources, sidestep those not interestedLots of funding sources, sidestep those not interested− Find research allies, esp. experimentalists, get funding circle Find research allies, esp. experimentalists, get funding circle

goinggoing− Takes time, political skills, strong stomachTakes time, political skills, strong stomach

• Hold invitational conferencesHold invitational conferences

• Publish proceedings, refereed articlesPublish proceedings, refereed articles

• Write technical booksWrite technical books

• Avoid the popular press and publicAvoid the popular press and public

Early R&D stage (90’s to Early R&D stage (90’s to now)now)

• ““Funding gap”Funding gap”

• Try DARPATry DARPA

• Good luckGood luck

Early commercialization Early commercialization stage (now)stage (now)

• Probably better not to put nano in your Probably better not to put nano in your company name or product namecompany name or product name

• Use the term only where it will helpUse the term only where it will help

• Watch out for regulatory issues (nanoparticle Watch out for regulatory issues (nanoparticle report from Swiss Re)report from Swiss Re)

• Try Small Business Innovation Research Try Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR), Small Business Technology Transfer (SBIR), Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs?(STTR) programs?

Maximizing social benefits of Maximizing social benefits of innovationinnovation• Lowering direct costs (industry, w/some Lowering direct costs (industry, w/some

government contracts): government contracts): In progressIn progress

• Lowering IP costs: Lowering IP costs: Keep basic tools as open Keep basic tools as open source?source? Nonexclusive licensing? (e.g., HTML)Nonexclusive licensing? (e.g., HTML)

• Preventing accidents (industry/ government Preventing accidents (industry/ government partnership): partnership): Doable: more control enables Doable: more control enables more responsibilitymore responsibility

• Reducing use in war, terrorism (mostly Reducing use in war, terrorism (mostly government, w/ industry cooperation): government, w/ industry cooperation): Very Very difficult challengedifficult challenge

• Preserving freedom and privacy in a Preserving freedom and privacy in a world capable of nanosurveillanceworld capable of nanosurveillance

Guidelines for Responsible Guidelines for Responsible DevelopmentDevelopment

• Foresight Guidelines Version 4.0: Self Foresight Guidelines Version 4.0: Self Assessment Scorecards for Safer Assessment Scorecards for Safer Development of NanotechnologyDevelopment of Nanotechnology

• Scorecards for nanotech professionals, Scorecards for nanotech professionals, industry, and government policyindustry, and government policy

• Ongoing process: your comments greatly Ongoing process: your comments greatly encouragedencouraged

• www.foresight.org/guidelineswww.foresight.org/guidelines

““Sounds like science fiction”Sounds like science fiction”• If you’re trying If you’re trying

to look far to look far ahead, and ahead, and what you see what you see seems like seems like science fiction, science fiction, it might be it might be wrongwrong..

• But if it But if it doesn’tdoesn’t seem like seem like science fiction, science fiction, it’s it’s definitelydefinitely wrong.wrong.

For more informationFor more information

• www.foresight.org — main site, includes large www.foresight.org — main site, includes large section on Nanomedicine section on Nanomedicine

• nanodot.org — searchable news sitenanodot.org — searchable news site

• Abstracts for recent 1st Conference on Abstracts for recent 1st Conference on Advanced Nanotechnology, Oct. 22-24, 2004Advanced Nanotechnology, Oct. 22-24, 2004

• Foresight Vision Weekend 2005Foresight Vision Weekend 2005

• Books:Books: Nanomedicine Vol. I and II, Engines of Nanomedicine Vol. I and II, Engines of Creation, NanosystemsCreation, Nanosystems