infopresse montreal feb 6 big data
TRANSCRIPT
SOLVEforINTERESTINGOTHERWISE LIFE IS DULL.
DATA AND DISILLUSIONMENT
(Shamelessly: buy this book.)
“We gotthe Internet exactly backwards.”
Breadcrumb trail
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Big Data:It’s people.
A technology shift.
Volume(the “big”
part)
Velocity(the “fast”
part)
Variety(the
“anything” part)
Pickanytwo
Relational
Statistical
BIG
“All your friends are poor” is an awkward conversation.
A force for good.
Ward off disease.Pinpoint disasters.Reveal corruption.Make cities smarter.Improve how we teach.
Big healthcare
Big philanthropy
Big commuting
A force for bad.
Erode our privacy.Justify prejudices.Polarize groups.Leak private truths.
Big prejudice
Audience participation time!
How amusing.
“…nobody notices offers they do not get. And if these absent opportunities start following certain social patterns (for example not offering them to certain races, genders or sexual preferences) they can have a deep civil rights effect.”
Anders Sandberg, Oxford University
Personalization looks a lot like prejudice.
Big radio
0
15
30
2007 2012
Times a song in “heavy rotation”is played each day
Every 4h
Every 55m
Don’t feel bad.
Don’t feel bad.
Even Einstein
had a therapist.
24 months ago, the average person was still afraid of IT.
Today, the average person is terrified of being without it.
So we have a lot of data. Now we’re a smarter
species, right?
“Anyone who values truth should stop worshipping reason.”
(AKA the real world.)
We prefer false positives.
Wooly mammoth
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pong/172438102/sizes/o/
Sun temple
http://www.flickr.com/photos/30787002@N02/3298693694/sizes/l/
Polarizing through tone
Pew and political polarization
We’re bad at this
Mistake correlation for causalitySeek truthiness rather than factFind patterns where they don’t existEasily swayed by toneSide with our tribesDig in and ignore new evidence
Athenian swimming pools
What will be normal tomorrow.
“All truth passes through three stages. First it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.”
Arthur Schopenhauer, philosopher (1788-1860)
Saturday morning cartoons
Saturday morning cartoons
Saturday morning cartoons
Saturday morning cartoons
Saturday morning cartoons
Our rotation about the sunThe immorality of slaveryA woman’s right to vote
... were once heresy.
Four big bets.
23andme
This explains so much.
How long until it’s cruel not to scan your baby?
Minority report
How long until it’s unethical not to predict mass
murder?
Look at my feed, ye mighty, and despair.
How long until our feed isn’t a matter of record like our Social
Insurance Number?
Google Glass and prosthetic brains
How unfair will it be?
How long until we have a prosthetic brain from birth?
What if, tomorrow,
genetic mapping
predictive arrests
a state-sanctioned life feed
and birth-issued prosthetics
aren’t just normal...
...it’s immoral not to have them?
(Phew.)
“A subjective degree of belief should rationally change to
account for evidence.”
(AKA Bayes’ Theorem.)
Pretty high expectations.Ph
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Are they being met?
What would be a perfect industry to capitalize on
Big Data?
Tons of information.
Public and private.
Data collection is inherent.
What’s collected identifies people uniquely.
Structured and unstructured.
Ubiquitous and mobile.
Consumer-facing,tied to loyalty.
Enabled by sensorsand interfaces.
An industry where “the right information in the right place
just changes your life.”
(which was what Stewart Brand said)
The best test:
Photo by Garysan97 on Flickr. http://www.flickr.com/photos/16983197@N06/7808610268/
The travel industry is the poster child for Big Data
innovation.
(Show of hands?)
Photo by James Vaughan on Flickr (http://www.flickr.com/photos/x-ray_delta_one/4567365854/)
Welcome to LA.
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Instead: have a free room!
(Admittedly, these are first-world problems.)
Is this a lackof data?
No, lack of outcomes.
Change is hard.(habits don’t change easily)
“Most organizational change efforts still underperform, fail,
or make things worse.”
Walter McFarland, This is your brain on organizatinal change, October, 2012, Harvard Business Review
“A person’s reaction to organizational change ‘can be so
excessive and immediate, that some researchers have suggested it may be easier to start a completely new organization than to try to
change an existing one.’”Kenneth Thompson and Fred Luthans
Disillusioned?
Maybe disruption requires having nothing to lose?
Amazon & e-books.
Netflix & videos.
Paypal & online payment.
Not a car service.A supply chain optimization platform.
Über & taxi services
Tomorrow’s best ideas are obvious in hindsight.
But to create them, companies need to change radically.
In fact, they need to change how they change.
Legacy companies have all the cards.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/locosphotos/6608106173/
They just don’t know how to play them.
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SOLVEforINTERESTINGOTHERWISE LIFE IS DULL.
Alistair [email protected]@solveforinteresting.comTHANKS!