Roberto PolilloDerpartment of Informatics, Systems and Communication,University of Milano Bicocca

Think!, 12 June 2014

A view on ICT4D1

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Statement #1

We must learn from the future, not from the past

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Four “miracles”

The “mobile miracle”The “broadband miracle”The “open-source miracle”The “cloud miracle”

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The mobile miracle

Almost 7 billion mobile cellular subscriptions worldwide by end 2014 (96% penetration rate; 121% developed, 90% developing)

The developing countries are home to more than three quarters of all mobile-cellular subscriptions

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The internet [half] miracle

Almost 3 billion people are using the Internet (40% of the world population) Close to 1 out of 3 people in the developing countries are online

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Mobile broadband growth (I) Mobile broadband uptake continues to grow at double digits rates The number of mobile-broadband subscriptions will reach 2.3 billion at end 2014, with 55% of them in developing

countries Mobile-broadband penetration in Africa will reach almost 20% by end 2014, up from less than 2% four years

earlier

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4 times growth

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Mobile broadband growth (II)

“Expectations are high that mobile-broadband services will become equally as available as mobile-cellulare telephony in the near future.

Ericsson forecasts that by 2018 there will be 6.5 billion mobile-broadband subscriptions, almost as many as there are mobile telephone subscriptions in 2013.”

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Source: ITU, Measuring the Information Society, 2013 R.Polillo, June 2014

The open-source miracle9

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2035651/open-source-is-taking-over-the-software-world-survey-says.html R.Polillo, June 2014

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Cloud computing miracle

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What we may expect

A world of cloud computing services… …. implemented using open-source software

platforms and applications…. …. accessible mainly from mobile devices…. …. From any country in the world… ….within the next few years

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Statement #2

There is not a single ICT4D:

every country is different

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Statement #3

Assume that the technology IS

already available

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Consequences

- Minimize setting up local infrastructure: use cloud services as much as possible

- Use open-source software as much as possible- Train local personnel to manage ICT solutions- Do not develop new software! Do not reinvent the wheel!- Adopt a prototyping approach as much as possible- Plan for sostenibility from the beginning- Pursue replicability and (possibly) scalability of solutions- Adopt a local perspective

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The main server of Chinandega hospital(Nicaragua)

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“The reality is a profusion of similar software and technology applications around the world that never leave the pilot phase.

We focus on responding to RFP’s that ask for something new or innovative with limited, bespoke solutions that die the day after funding ends.

We keep reinventing the flat tire.”

Wayan VotaWant to scale ICT4D projects? Stop developing software!

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References

The World in 2014: ICT Facts and Figures (ITU):http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Documents/facts/ICTFactsFigures2014-e.pdf

UNCTD: The Software Industry and Developing Countries (2012) www.unctad.org/ier2012

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