ict and disaster risk reduction division resilient icts in... · 0.1 0.1 6.0 3.6 60.9 60.0 12.1...

Building resilient ICT in the SPECA region

TOWARDS EIGHTH SESSION OF THE SPECA THEMATIC WORKING GROUP

MEETING ON KNOWLEDGE-BASED DEVELOPMENT

ALMATY, KAZAKHSTAN

20-22ND SEPTEMBER

ICT and Disaster Risk Reduction Division

ESCAP

Shaina Hasan & Jeremy Marand

ICT and Development Section


Disaster impact in SPECA • The SPECA region is highly vulnerable to disasters such

as earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought and extreme temperature

• During the period 2000-2015, the reported 210 disasters have caused 10,639 deaths, and affected more than 16 million people

• Floods are the most frequent and costliest disasters but earthquake is the predominant risk

• Majority of population concentrated within areas of high or very high seismic hazard (Kyrgyzstan 99.9%, Tajikistan 88.3%, and Uzbekistan 80.4%) or within a moderate to very high hazard area (Turkmenistan 97% and Kazakhstan 43.6%)

• Disasters have disproportionate impact in the region. According to EM-DAT (2000-2014), two countries (Afghanistan and Tajikistan) account for 75.5% of the total economic damage in SPECA region

2

18%

45%

4%

6%

14%

4%

9%

Percentage distribution of disasters in SPECA

region ( % in terms of disaster Occurrence)

Earthquake

Flood

Drought

Extreme Weather

Landslide

Storm

Others


Projected Average Annual Loss (AAL) is high

247.7

61

19.7 9.4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Earthquake Flood Landslide Drought

Aver

age

annual

lo

ss i

n (

$ m

illi

on)

Predicted Average Annual Economic loss in ($

million)

326.0

239.0

865.1

98.4 112.7 96.4

303.7

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Mil

lio

ns

of

US

Do

llar

s

Expected AAL for Multi-Hazard

Source: World Bank and UNISDR (2009)

Source: ESCAP based on data from UNISDR (2015)

3


Seismic Hazard Map

Kazakhstan

Azerbaijan

Afghanistan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan Tajikistan

Kyrgyz Republic Caspian Sea

Source: GSHP (1999)

Kazakhstan

Afghanistan

Kyrgyz Republic Azerbaijan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

4


Transmission Map

Source: ITU, interactive map available at http://www.itu.int/itu-d/tnd-map-public/

Kyrgyz Republic

Kazakhstan

Turkmenistan

Uzbekistan

Afghanistan

Azerbaijan

Tajikistan

5


Digital Divide in the Region

• Digital divide exists in the region. The two richest economies Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, exhibit the highest share of internet users and fixed-broadband subscribers

• In comparison, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan have the lowest share of internet users and fixed broadband subscribers

• The share of internet user in Azerbaijan was 77% as compared to 8.3% in Afghanistan

• Richer countries have a wider access to ICT for DRR/DRM but high adoption rates makes their respective economies more vulnerable if ICT assets are damaged

• There is a potential for mobile-based DRR/DRM practices in the less economically advanced countries due to a relatively affordable cost and good coverage

6


0.3

18.7 24.7

7.1 5.3 12.1 8.4

61.6

111.3

187.2

132.8

98.6

145.9

73.3

8.3

77.0 72.9

30.2

19.0 15.0

42.8

0.0

19.8 13.0

3.7 0.1 0.1

3.6 6.0

60.9 60.0

31.0

12.1

28.7

Afghanistan Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan

ICT penetration in SPECA in 2015, by country

fixed-telephone sub per 100 inhabitants mobile-cellular sub per 100 inhabitants

Percentage of individuals using the internet fixed-broadband sub per 100 inhabitants

active mobile-broadband sub per 100 inhabitants

Mis

sin

g

Digital Divide in the region

Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan lead the way in terms of ICT indicators

Afghanistan and Tajikistan are behind

Source ESCAP, based on ITU (2016).

7


• Digital divide is also noticeable in terms of coverage and cost

• However, good mobile-cellular network coverage everywhere and price of

running a mobile phone relatively cheaper compared to other countries in the

same income groups

• Main point to emphasize- affordability

Sources: cost of fixed broadband and data on fixed broadband subscriptions from ITU (2016), GNI data

from the World Development Indicators (2016).

Afghanistan

Tajikistan

Georgia AzerbaijanArmeniaKazakhstanKyrgyzstan

Uzbekistan

Pakistan

Turkmenistan

0

50

100

150

Co

st o

f fi

xe

d b

roa

db

an

d (

% G

NI

pe

r ca

pit

a)

0 5 10 15 20

Fixed Broadband Sub. per 100 Inhabitants

Broadband affordability and fixed broadband subscriptions in SPECA and neighbouring countries (2015)

8


9.9

1.70.9

4.9

19.3

Low-income average (25.1)

Upper-middle income countries (2.6)

Lower-middle income countries (6.8)

World average (6.6)

0

30

Mo

nth

ly c

ost

(%

of

GN

I p

er

cap

ita

)

Afghanistan Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan

(by country, 2014)

Monthly cost of running mobile phone in SPECA

Sources: data on cost from ITU (2016), GNI per capita from World Development Indicators (2016).

9


• Digital divide can also be observed between firms

• Factors influencing ICT use include business size

• SMEs rely extensively on ICT in their activities

• Availability of ICT tools for DRR/DRM practices will depend on companies’ characteristics in terms of location, ICT affordability and size

• ICT generates economic growth and economic growth leads to higher ICT adoption rates

Therefore:

• ICT is not only a tool, but also a crucial economic asset that needs to be protected both at the macro and micro levels during disasters

3.8

16.7

25.0

37.0

58.5

88.5

0

25

50

75

100

Bu

sin

esse

s u

sin

g t

he

in

tern

et

(%

)

2007 2013

Azerbaijan

37.4

70.1

77.5

49.6

73.7

95.3

0

25

50

75

100

2007 2013

Kazakhstan

Internet use, by business size

Micro (0-9 employees) Small (10-49 employees)

Medium (50-249 employees)

Source: ESCAP, based on UNCTAD (2015)

10


SMEs in the region use ICT for multiple reasons. Internet is used in SMEs in Kazakhstan

and Azerbaijan for the following:

• Communication: telephoning, e-mails

• Finance: internet banking

• Online services for customers: delivery, online orders

• Getting information from the government


0.4 2.4

9.0 9.1 6.911.8

4.39.2

48.3 50.6

29.9

49.4

2.5

11.2

29.9

42.5

56.5

73.9

Micro enterprises Small enterprises Medium enterprises

Azerbaijan, 2013

ICT use in business (%) by enterprise size class

Telephoning e-mails

Instant messaging/bulletin boards Customer services

Information from government Internet banking

11



6.43.6

9.1

16.6 17.221.3

47.6

8.7 10.4 12.8

31.734.9

39.9

65.3

7.311.8 13.2

29.832.8

38.8

51.9

Micro enterprises Small enterprises Medium enterprises

Kazakhstan, 2013

ICT use in business (%) by enterprise size class

Telephoning e-mails

Instant messaging/bulletin boards Customer services

Information from government Internet banking

Financial services (excl. internet banking)

12


Protecting ICT Assets

Preparedness

• Identify risks and vulnerabilities through hazard mapping, seismic microzonation,

• Understand the risk for businesses and promote Business continuity plans (BCP) in SMEs. Less

than 2% of SMEs in Kazakhstan are insured against natural disaster risks. 83% of SMEs

surveyed in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) area did not have any Business

Continuity Plan

• Training and information about good practices. Governments can provide training and

information about good DRR/DRM practices to SMEs

• Better informed firms can urge their suppliers to adopt BCP as they will be more aware of the

disruptions caused by natural disasters in value chains

13


Protecting ICT Assets Robustness and reliability

• Measures to mitigate traffic congestion on the network during disasters

• Measures to protect the quality and speed of data

• Increased back-up power at the base stations and all other communication facilities to counter electricity outages

• More legal and normative requirements for crucial ICT infrastructures such as datacenters and base stations

Redundancy

• Offer redundancy. Alternative paths for terrestrial internet links, more internet providers at the international frontier

• Projects such as the Trans-Eurasian Information Super Highway (TASIM) project initiated by Azerbaijan, the Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway (AP-IS) can address these needs

14


Protecting ICT Assets Enhancing e- resilience

• Backing up data to improve e-resilience. Save data on external drive.

• Offsite backup by using cloud technology

Increase Use of Innovative technology in Future

• Increase use of cloud computing

• Mobile networks can be scaled up quickly using mobile base station or “cells on

wheels” to offer redundancy

• Mobile Network Big Data (MNBD)- extremely large datasets generated from

different data sources can be used for disaster data collection eg. population

displacement

15


Regional Cooperation

• Many disasters are transboundary in nature with impacts felt across countries

• Need to promote regional cooperation and mechanisms particularly for transboundary

disasters

• Establishment of Asian and Pacific Centre for the Development of Disaster

Information Management (APDIM), in Tehran, Iran as regional institution of ESCAP

• Aims to reduce human losses and material damages from the negative impact of

natural hazards through enhancement of disaster information management in the

region through south-south cooperation

• Particular focus on vulnerable subregions of South and South West Asia and North

and Central Asia

• The Asia Pacific Superhighway (AP-IS) initiative mandated by member states of

ESCAP aims to provide seamless connectivity across the continent, to enhance

regional connectivity and ICT resilience across the Continent.


In preparation for future disasters

• Do countries take into account disaster risks in their national policies, programmes

and planning in terms of ICT?

• How prepared are countries for seismic risks to protect damage to ICT infrastructure?

• Do countries have a DRM plan for humanitarian assistance if the ICT infrastructure

is damaged?

• How to build disaster resilience of countries that are both high-risk and low-capacity

with limited ICT infrastructure?

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THANK YOU

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