iaastd in pursuit of the millennium development goalsin pursuit of the millennium development goals...
TRANSCRIPT
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IAASTDIAASTD
In pursuit of the Millennium In pursuit of the Millennium
Development GoalsDevelopment Goals
Carl B. GreenidgeCarl B. Greenidge
PresentationPresentation (on (on behalfbehalf of Dr R. Watson, of Dr R. Watson, ChiefChief ScientistScientist, IBRD) to, IBRD) to
GFAR GFAR
TriennialTriennial ConferenceConference
New Delhi, Nov. 9th 2006New Delhi, Nov. 9th 2006
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IAASTDIAASTD’’ss purposepurpose
�� Overarching questionOverarching question ‘how ‘how cancan wewe more more effectivelyeffectively
•• reduce hunger and poverty, reduce hunger and poverty,
•• improve rural livelihoods, and improve rural livelihoods, and
•• facilitate equitable, environmentally, socially and ecofacilitate equitable, environmentally, socially and economically nomically sustainable development; (sustainable development; (MDGsMDGs 1 & 7 et al1 & 7 et al) )
throughthrough the the generationgeneration of, of, accessaccess to, and use of to, and use of agricultural agricultural knowledge, science and technology’knowledge, science and technology’(AKST)?(AKST)?
�� IAASTD is IAASTD is assessingassessing AKST in order to:AKST in order to:
�� guideguide policy and management decisions,policy and management decisions,
�� build and enhancebuild and enhance local and regional capacity to local and regional capacity to design, implement and utilize scientific assessments. design, implement and utilize scientific assessments.
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IAASTD involvesIAASTD involves……..a unique international effort that will……..a unique international effort that will
�� Evaluate Evaluate AKST in all its dimensions,AKST in all its dimensions,
�� Share views and createShare views and create a common vision of the future of a common vision of the future of agriculture among a diverse set of stakeholders,agriculture among a diverse set of stakeholders,
�� be be multimulti--thematicthematic, , multimulti--spatial and multispatial and multi--temporaltemporal; ; integrating integrating local knowledge with institutional knowledge and local knowledge with institutional knowledge and looking at policy and institutional issues in light of history alooking at policy and institutional issues in light of history and nd plausible future scenarios.plausible future scenarios.
�� Generate outputsGenerate outputs which will include an ensemble of peerwhich will include an ensemble of peer--reviewed subreviewed sub--global and global assessment reports.global and global assessment reports.
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Scope and features of the AssessmentScope and features of the Assessment
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The Four Broad QuestionsThe Four Broad Questions
�� What are the challenges that can be addressed What are the challenges that can be addressed through agricultural KST?through agricultural KST?
�� What are the likely positive and negative What are the likely positive and negative consequences of agricultural KST?consequences of agricultural KST?
�� What are the enabling conditions required to What are the enabling conditions required to optimize the uptake and diffusion of agricultural optimize the uptake and diffusion of agricultural KST?KST?
�� What investments are needed to help realize the What investments are needed to help realize the potential of agricultural KST?potential of agricultural KST?
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Development & Sustainability Goals• Decreased hunger and poverty
• Improved nutrition and human health
• Sustainable economic growth
• Enhanced livelihoods and equity
• Environmental sustainability
Indirect Drivers• Economic (demand, markets,..)
• Demographic (urbanization,..)
• Education, Culture, Ethics
• Sociopolitical
• Infrastructure
• Science and Technology
• Agricultural KS&T
Direct Drivers• Availability, & management of
natural resources, inc. land and
water, and biodiversity
• Climate change
• Labor
• Energy
• AKST use
Agricultural Outputs
& Services• Food, fiber
• Energy, biomass
• Landscape management
• Carbon sequestration
• Social change
(employment...)
• Env. change
Access, control & distribution- Extension / Dissemination- Credit/Capital/Assets
- Access/Knowledge markets- Inputs, such as agro-chemicals
Strategies and interventions
Research PolicyIPRLocal & institutional
generation of AKST
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
Strateg
ies and Interven
tions
Strateg
ies and Interven
tions
Strategies and interventions
Conceptual FrameworkConceptual Framework
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Overall Structure of the Global AssessmentOverall Structure of the Global Assessment
A: A: Historical (past 50 years) and current perspectivesHistorical (past 50 years) and current perspectives
ContextContext
B: B: Plausible futuresPlausible futures (present to 2050)(present to 2050)
analyze the positives and negatives both qualitatively and analyze the positives and negatives both qualitatively and quantitatively.quantitatively.
C&D: C&D: Options for ActionOptions for Action
Technology, capacity strengthening, policies and funding Technology, capacity strengthening, policies and funding strategies. strategies.
GEOGRAPHICAL STRUCTURE:GEOGRAPHICAL STRUCTURE:
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IAASTDIAASTD
The progress so far: ScenariosThe progress so far: Scenarios
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Global
Fragmented (regional)
Pro-activeReactive
Global
Orchestration
(Policies and markets)Equity, economic growthand public goods
Technogarden
(Green technologies)Green technologiesand ecological economics
Order from Strength
(Self sufficiency)National security
Adapting mosaic
(Local learning)Integrated management,Local adaptation andlearning
What are the consequences of plausible changes in development paths for ecosystems and their services over the next 50 years and what will be the consequences of those changes for human well-being?
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Crop Land Forest Area
Changes in crop land and forest area under MA Scenarios
Changes in direct driversChanges in direct drivers
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Changes in direct Changes in direct
drivers:drivers:
Nutrient loadingNutrient loading
•• Humans have Humans have
already doubled already doubled
the flow of the flow of
reactive nitrogen reactive nitrogen
on the on the
continents, and continents, and
some projections some projections
suggest that this suggest that this
may increase by may increase by
roughly a further roughly a further
two thirds by two thirds by
2050 2050
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Changes in ecosystem services Changes in ecosystem services
under MA Scenariosunder MA Scenarios
•• Demand for food Demand for food
crops is projected crops is projected
to grow by 70to grow by 70––85% 85%
by 2050, and water by 2050, and water
withdrawals by 30withdrawals by 30--
85%85%
•• Food security is not Food security is not
achieved by 2050, achieved by 2050,
and child and child
undernutrition undernutrition
would be difficult to would be difficult to
eradicate (and is eradicate (and is
projected to projected to
increase in some increase in some
regions in some MA regions in some MA
scenarios)scenarios)
Child undernourishment in 2050 under MA Scenarios
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Changes in ecosystem services Changes in ecosystem services
under MA Scenariosunder MA Scenarios
��Water Availability Water Availability
•• Global water Global water
availability increases availability increases
under all MA under all MA
scenarios. By 2050, scenarios. By 2050,
global water global water
availability increases availability increases
by 5by 5––7% (depending 7% (depending
on the scenario)on the scenario)
▪▪ Demand for water is Demand for water is
projected to grow by projected to grow by
between 30% and between 30% and
85%85% Water Withdrawals in 2050 under MA Scenarios
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Key ChallengesKey Challenges
�� Integrating local (traditional/indigenous) and institutional Integrating local (traditional/indigenous) and institutional
knowledgeknowledge
�� Designing a peerDesigning a peer--review system for local knowledgereview system for local knowledge
��Ensuring scientific rigor and differentiating between evidenceEnsuring scientific rigor and differentiating between evidence--
based findings and different value systems and ideologiesbased findings and different value systems and ideologies
��How to address cross cutting issuesHow to address cross cutting issues
��How to deal with uncertainties (I.e., how well may certain factsHow to deal with uncertainties (I.e., how well may certain facts be be
established)established)
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Overall Structure of the AssessmentOverall Structure of the Assessment
�� Global AssessmentGlobal Assessment
�� Ten chapters, each with an executive summaryTen chapters, each with an executive summary
�� A Summary for decision Makers A Summary for decision Makers
�� Five SubFive Sub--global assessmentsglobal assessments
�� Five chapters each, each with an executive summaryFive chapters each, each with an executive summary
�� A Summary for decision Makers A Summary for decision Makers
�� An Overall Synthesis SummaryAn Overall Synthesis Summary
1.1. The chapters should be defensible to our colleaguesThe chapters should be defensible to our colleagues
2.2. The executive summaries should be defensible to our colleagues The executive summaries should be defensible to our colleagues
and understandable to the technical advisors to policymakersand understandable to the technical advisors to policymakers
3.3. The Overall Synthesis Report should be understandable to The Overall Synthesis Report should be understandable to
decisiondecision--makers and address their policy needsmakers and address their policy needs
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….thank you
You cannot solve the problem with the same kind of thinking that created the problem
Albert Einstein
…We have done well, AKSTs have made a huge difference
in the way the people live today (for better or worse), and we
need to learn from these lessons and do a lot better..nowHow we will do that is the question. AKST can help, but just like
With nuclear fission…we can do good or bad….