hydrology calibration
DESCRIPTION
Hydrology Calibration. Phase 5. Calibrators. USGS-MD Jeff Raffensperger Sarah Martucci Joe Vrabel Angelica Gutierrez Gary Fisher. Calibrators. USGS-VA Doug Moyer Alan Simpson Jen Krstolic ICPRB Ross Mandel Julie Kiang. Calibrators. CBP Sara Brandt Jing Wu Kate Hopkins - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Hydrology Calibration
Phase 5
Calibrators
• USGS-MD– Jeff Raffensperger– Sarah Martucci– Joe Vrabel– Angelica Gutierrez– Gary Fisher
Calibrators
• USGS-VA– Doug Moyer– Alan Simpson– Jen Krstolic
• ICPRB– Ross Mandel– Julie Kiang
Calibrators
• CBP– Sara Brandt– Jing Wu– Kate Hopkins– Lewis Linker– Gary Shenk
Status from April
• Reaching point of diminishing returns with hand calibration
• Better and more consistent overall than phase4
• Consistent with other HSPF calibrations in the literature
• Still a few small areas and issues that need attention in hydrology
Success with Hand Calibration
• Generally better calibration than previous model
• Discovered sensitive parameters
• Discovered appropriate measures of performance
Phase 5 vs Phase 4 Efficiencies
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9Phase 4
Pha
se 5
INFILT AGWR INTFW IRC AGWETP UZSN LZSN KVARYmin 0.009 0.867 0.5 0.12 0.0000 0.25 4.0 0.010th 0.041 0.954 1.0 0.25 0.0000 0.50 5.0 0.025th 0.045 0.965 1.0 0.30 0.0070 0.50 5.0 0.0median 0.072 0.974 1.0 0.38 0.0500 0.50 5.0 0.075th 0.117 0.979 2.5 0.46 0.0500 0.50 5.0 0.090th 0.176 0.983 3.5 0.60 0.0500 0.50 7.5 1.0max 0.337 0.995 5.0 0.85 0.1176 1.35 13.5 3.0
Individually Calibrated Parameters
But . . .
Surface Runoff in inches/yearBut . . .
Individual basin AGWETP calibration
But . . .
But . . .
• Some land segments were not calibrated since they supply no monitored river
• Ratios of parameters between land uses not preserved
• Other established rules not followed
The good news:
Overall BiasWinter / Summer BalanceBaseflow / Stormflow BalanceQuickflow Recession IndexBaseflow Recession IndexPeak Bias
land evapLZSNINFILTIRCAGWRINTFW
Calibration Measure HSPF Parameter
Iterative Calibration
• Started with manual calibration– Enforced land use ratios– Enforced min and max
• Used knowledge and statistics developed during the manual calibration
• Assumed sensitivities linking parameters to statistics
Sensitivities
Bias - land evap - LE = 2/(2-Bias)Wstat/Stat - LZSN - LZSN = (3-S/W)/2Bstat - INFILT - INFILT = 1/BstatQaveRI - IRC - IRC = 2/(1+QaveRI)BaveRI - AGWR - AGWR = 2/(1+BaveRI)Pbias/Vpbias - INTFW - INTFW = 1 + PorV/2
The Ratio Rules
land use infilt intfw lzsn irc agwr agwetpfor 1.6 1.25 1 1 1 6grs 1 1 1 1 1 2pur 0.8 1 1 1 1 2
min 0.0125 1 12 0.35 0.92 0.0005max 0.25 4 12 0.85 0.99 0.05
land use uzsn factor vs lzsncrp 0.14for 0.12grs 0.1pur 0.1
crop monthly uzsn factorJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.95 1 1 0.8 0.7 0.65
ratio to crop
Crop SURO between 1 and 6
Link Land to RiverCounty A
County B
50k acres
50k acres
Station 1
Station 2
Basis: Percent of basin made up of each county
County A is:100% of station 1 50% of station 2
The ‘importance’ ratio is 2:1, so county A uses 2/3 of the station1 parameters and 1/3 station2 parameters
Ignored ‘importances’ less that 10%
Assigned ‘orphan’ counties to ‘siblings’
10% assumptioncounties controlled
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Watershed Size
April 1 Bias
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Iterative Calibration Bias
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Baseflow / Stormflow Stat
Fraction of flow that is baseflow (simulated)Fraction of flow that is baseflow (observed)
Bstat = 1 -
baseflow / total flow (observed)Bstat = 1 - baseflow / total flow (simulated)
stormflow / total flow (observed)Qstat = 1 - stormflow / total flow (simulated)
April 1 Bstat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Iterative Calibration Bstat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
April 1 Qstat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Interative Calibration Qstat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Baseflow / Stormflow Recession Statistic
average Simulated recession index average Observed recession index
Q rec Index = 1 -
quick flow todayAverage Recession index = Average (
quick flow tomorrow )
April 1 Average Baseflow Recession
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-48% -38% -28% -18% -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 43%
Iterative Calibration Average Baseflow Recession
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
-48% -38% -28% -18% -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 43%
April 1 Quickflow Recession Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Iterative Calibration Quickflow Recession Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Nash – Sutcliffe Model efficiency
(variance of errors) (variance of observed)
Computed for daily, log of daily, and monthly values.
1 -
Reported values of N-S efficiency• Often reported, but little information on
‘standards’ of efficiency• Reported daily efficiencies 0.5 - 0.75• Reported daily log efficiencies 0.5 -
0.75• Reported Monthly efficiencies 0.7 – 0.8
Efficiency as of April 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Efficiency of Iterative Calibration
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Reported values of N-S efficiency• Often reported, but little information on
‘standards’ of efficiency• Reported daily efficiencies 0.5 - 0.75• Reported daily log efficiencies 0.5 -
0.75• Reported Monthly efficiencies 0.7 – 0.8
Efficiency of Logs as of April 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Efficiency of Logs of Iterative Calibration
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Reported values of N-S efficiency• Often reported, but little information on
‘standards’ of efficiency• Reported daily efficiencies 0.5 - 0.75• Reported daily log efficiencies 0.5 -
0.75• Reported Monthly efficiencies 0.7 – 0.8
Efficiency of Monthly Flow as of Apr 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Efficiency of Monthly Flow of Iterative Calibration
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
results
INFILT AGWR INTFW IRC AGWETP UZSN LZSN KVARYmin 0.009 0.867 0.5 0.12 0.0000 0.25 4.0 0.010th 0.041 0.954 1.0 0.25 0.0000 0.50 5.0 0.025th 0.045 0.965 1.0 0.30 0.0070 0.50 5.0 0.0median 0.072 0.974 1.0 0.38 0.0500 0.50 5.0 0.075th 0.117 0.979 2.5 0.46 0.0500 0.50 5.0 0.090th 0.176 0.983 3.5 0.60 0.0500 0.50 7.5 1.0max 0.337 0.995 5.0 0.85 0.1176 1.35 13.5 3.0
Hand calib
Iterative calib
Results
• Used the knowledge gained during the individual calibration stage– Sensitive parameters– Important statistics
• Improved the calibration by applying the knowledge in a systematic way– More consistent parameterization– Better statistical calibration
Remaining Questions
• How robust is this calibration– Sensitive to starting point?– Sensitive to rules of assigning land segments
to calibration stations?– Sensitive to rules governing parameters to
adjust?
Efficiency
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
hand calib
Effect of Starting Point
Efficiency of logs
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
hand calib
Effect of Starting Point
Total Bias
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
hand calib
Effect of Starting Point
Efficiency
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
accentuate Small
accentuate Large
Dow nstream small
Dow nstream large
Effect of River Calibration Statistic to Land Parameter Methodology
Efficiency of logs
0.31
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.38
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
accentuate Small
accentuate Large
Dow nstream small
Dow nstream large
Effect of River Calibration Statistic to Land Parameter Methodology
Total Bias
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
accentuate Small
accentuate Large
Dow nstream small
Dow nstream large
Effect of River Calibration Statistic to Land Parameter Methodology
Efficiency
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary and AG
AGWETP2
10% cepc
50% cepc
1.5 * cepc
2 * cepc
Effect of additional variables or different rules
Efficiency of logs
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary and AG
AGWETP2
10% cepc
50% cepc
1.5 * cepc
2 * cepc
Effect of additional variables or different rules
Total Bias
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
base
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary and AG
AGWETP2
10% cepc
50% cepc
1.5 * cepc
2 * cepc
Effect of additional variables or different rules
LZSN
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iterat
ion
AGWR
0.925
0.93
0.935
0.94
0.945
0.95
0.955
0.96
0.965
0.97
0.975
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iterat
ion
AGWR
INFILT
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
0.1
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iteratio
n
INFILT
INTFW
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iterat
ion
INTFW
IRC
0.39
0.4
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.46
0.47
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iterat
ion
IRC
AGWETP
0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
0.03
0.035
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iterat
ion
AGWETP
KVARY
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
base
acce
ntuate
Small
acce
ntuate
Large
Downs
tream
small
Downs
tream
large
AGWETP2
AGWETP
KVARY
kvary
and A
G
10% ce
pc
50% ce
pc
1.5 *
cepc
2 * ce
pc
hand
calib
hand
after
iterat
ion
KVARY
Results of Sensitivity Tests
• Very stable and robust calibration
• Stable for parameters as well as results
Today’s Product
• Near final version of hydrology, still need:
– Land use– Small hydrologic fixes for reservoirs, other
problem areas
Comparison with phase 4
• Generally better than phase 4 from efficiency standpoint
• Phase 4 calibrated to match CFD and time series at these stations
• Phase 5 calibrated to match statistics other than efficiency
• Phase 5 mostly calibrated to smaller stations.