hydrology and sediment calibration status
DESCRIPTION
Hydrology and Sediment Calibration Status. Gary Shenk Jing Wu Lewis Linker Ross Mandel Doug Moyer Jeff Keaton Hui Liu Jeff Raffensperger Modeling Subcommittee 4/4/05. Hydrology Calibration. Method has been stable for months Received final land use Final check of parameters - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Hydrology and Sediment Calibration Status
Gary ShenkJing Wu
Lewis LinkerRoss MandelDoug MoyerJeff Keaton
Hui LiuJeff Raffensperger
Modeling Subcommittee4/4/05
Hydrology Calibration
• Method has been stable for months
• Received final land use
• Final check of parameters
• New elevation data
• Received upgraded rainfall
• Ran iteration routine
Efficiency of Feb 2005
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Efficiency of April 2005
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
-103% -83% -63% -43% -23% -3% 18% 38% 58% 78% 98%
Progress of Iterative Routine
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Iteration
Ave
rag
e E
ffic
ien
cy Feb Calibration
New Rain and Land Use
Progress of Iterative Routine
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Iteration
Ave
rage
Eff
icie
ncy Feb Calibration
New Rain and Land Use
New Land Use, Old Rain
Frequency of Surface Runoff in Inches/yr
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Inches
April
Feb
April Feblow 14% 17%good 70% 70%high 16% 13%
Sediment Pathway in Phase 5
BMP Factor
Land Acre FactorDelivery Factor
Edge of Field
Edge of Stream
In Stream Concentrations
Sediment Pathway in Phase 5
BMP Factor
Land Acre FactorDelivery Factor
Edge of Field Targets
Edge of Stream
In Stream Concentrations
Needed EOF targets for 13 land uses
• Forest • Harvested Forest• Natural grass• Extractive• Barren• Pervious Urban• Impervious Urban
• Pasture• Bad Pasture• Hay• High till with manure• High till no manure• Low till with manure
Agriculture Other
Needed EOF targets for 13 land uses
NRI gave estimates of
Pasture and Cropland for each county
• Pasture• Bad Pasture• Hay• High till with manure• High till no manure• Low till with manure
Agriculture
Needed EOF targets for 13 land uses
• Pasture => Pasture• Bad Pasture => 9.5 * Pasture• Hay => 1/3 Crop (P4 NRI)• High till with manure => 1.25 * Crop• High till no manure => 1.25 * Crop• Low till with manure => 0.75 * Crop
Agriculture
9%
0.05%
7%
4%
1%
4%
Needed EOF targets for 13 land uses
• Forest• Harvested Forest• Natural grass• Bare• Extractive• Pervious Urban• Impervious Urban
Other65%
0.65%
0.65%
0.52%
0.11%
7.1%
1.2%
FOREST
• NRI estimates exist for phase 4 for the CB watershed. Use these where available
• Southern Virginia– Calculate forest rate using USLE– Ratio the results so that the range is equal to the
rest of the CB watershed
HARVESTED FOREST
• Bare ground erosion rates of forest soils 3 to 4 orders of magnitude greater than base forest erosion rates
• Current practice in Mid-Atlantic Region does not reduce forests to bare ground except for roads and harvest machinery
• Use 3.4 t/ac/yr as target rate—one order of magnitude greater than base forest rate
NATURAL GRASS(fallow land, horse pasture)
RECOMMENDATION:
Use Basin-wide average Pasture erosion rate for 1982-1997, inclusive
= 1.5 t/ac/yr
BARE = CONSTRUCTION
• 38 – 78 t/ac/yr (Guy and Ferguson, 1962)
• 7.2 – 500 t/ac/yr ( U. S. EPA, 2002)
• 35 – 45 t/ac/yr (MWCOG, 1987)
• Choose 40 t/ac/yr
EXTRACTIVE(mines, sand and gravel pits)
• Active Operations: Permit limits of 70 mg/l TSS ≈ 0.16 t/ac/yr
• Abandoned Mines: Waste piles and non-vegetated area more like construction areas
• Assume average of one-fourth construction site erosion rate: 10 t/ac/yr
URBAN
• Post-construction urban sediment loads primary due to channel erosion from increased concentrated flow from impervious surfaces
• Use Langland and Cronin (2003) estimates of urban EOS erosion rates by land use category
Needed EOF targets for 13 land uses
• Forest => Use P4 NRI• Harvested Forest => Mean Forest * 10 = 3.4 t/ac/yr• Natural grass => Mean Pasture = 1.5 t/ac/yr• Bare => 40 t/ac/yr• Extractive => 10 t/ac/yr• Pervious Urban => 0.74 t/ac/yr• Impervious Urban => 5.18 t/ac/yr
Other
ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION ON WATER
RECOMMENDATION:Use Constant Daily Rate of 10 lb/ac/day
(Langland and Cronin, 2003)
Sediment Pathway in Phase 5
BMP Factor
Land Acre FactorDelivery Factor
Edge of Field Method
Edge of Stream
In Stream Concentrations
Land Sediment Simulation
KSER
Detached Sediment
Soil Matrix(unlimited)
Wash off
Rai
nfal
lD
etac
hmen
t
Att
achm
ent
KRER AFFIXNVSI
Gen
erat
ion
4 parameters, 1 target
Rule 1 - Zero Detached Sed after Large Storms
Runoff, Washoff, and Sed Storage
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
3650 3670 3690 3710 3730 3750Days
wa
ter
(in
/d);
Se
d (
t/d
); S
ed
Sto
r (t
on
s)
surodetswssd
vanSickle and Beschta (1983)Allen Gellis (pers communication)
Decision Rules for Four Key land Parameters:
Rule2 – Detached Sediment Storage Reaches 90% of its Max in 30 Days
)1( *tAFFIXeAFFIX
NVSIS
SAFFIXNVSIdt
dS*
AFFIX = 0.07673
Detached Storage Vs Time
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0 15 30 45 60 75 90
Day
Det
ach
ed S
tora
ge
Rule3 – Generation makes up significant
portion of Detached Sediment
• NVSI = [significant fraction] * target load
Detached Sediment
Soil Matrix(unlimited)
Rai
nfal
lD
etac
hmen
tKRERNVSI
Gen
erat
ion
Strategy: Reduce the Parameter Set
1. Assume ratio of NVSI : EOF target
2. Assume ratio of KSER : KRER
3. Adjust KSER to meet target
KSER
Detached Sediment
Soil Matrix(unlimited)
Wash off
Rai
nfal
lD
etac
hmen
t
Att
achm
ent
KRER AFFIXNVSI
Gen
erat
ion
Two strategies to optimize ratios:
• Does the model correctly capture the dynamic of land process?
• Do the different land calibrations make a difference in the correlation between simulated and observed?
- Dynamic of land process Land segment A42033 - pasture, KSER/KRER = 5
Detached Storage goes down to zero sometimes
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
suro
dets
wssd
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
suro
dets
wssd
- Dynamic of land process Land segment A42033 - pasture, KSER/KRER = 5
Detached Storage remains high, never goes down to zero
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
suro
dets
wssd
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
suro
dets
wssd
Correlation vs NVSI:Target [ Fake ]
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
NVSI : Target
Ave
rag
e C
orr
elat
ion
Bet
wee
n
Sim
ula
ted
an
d O
bse
rved
Correlation vs KS:KR [ Fake ]
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 5 10 15 20 25
KS : KR ratio
Ave
rag
e C
orr
elat
ion
Bet
wee
n
Sim
ula
ted
an
d O
bse
rved
Status and expected steps
• Computer programs ready
• EOF calibration can be done in two weeks once final hydrology parameters are available.
Land-River Connection
BMP Factor
Land Acre FactorDelivery Factor
Edge of Field
Edge of Stream
In Stream Concentrations
Proposed method:Relate delivery to average distance from land to river by segment
Single factor for each land use in each segment
• Related to watershed size
• Unique for each Land use
• Assume mean distance is
the radius of a circle
A = π*(mean distance)^2
DF = 0.417762 * A -0.134958 - 0.127097
Land-River Connection
BMP Factor
Land Acre FactorDelivery Factor
Edge of Field
Edge of Stream
In Stream Concentrations
critz
w
eMass
1
1
River Cohesive Sediment Simulation
SuspendedSediment
Bed Storage(unlimited)
Outflow
Sco
ur
Dep
osit
ion
Inflow
1*
crit
AreaM
Goals of River Calibration
• Find sensitive parameters
• Find numeric calibration measures
• Make system of rules for their interaction
Data
• Calibrating now with 50 stations
• Have data coming in for approx 200 stations
Default Values
• Adjust M values only to 0.4
Reduce Erodibility
• Scour Tau and deposition tau set to 99th percentile
• M = 0.4
• Reduce frequency of Scour
• Adjust deposition and scour to 95th percentile.
• M = 0.4
• Depositional 95% of time and erosional 5% of time.
• High frequency / Low Mass Scour
• M set to default
• Tau scour set to 99th percentile
• Low Frequency / High Mass Scour
Strategy for completion
• Extra staff
• Investigate various strategies– KS test– Shear Stress vs Error– Optimize 1:1 plot
• Develop decision tree method that can be followed by calibrator or automated