hpn mag june 2014

70

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Page 1: Hpn mag june 2014

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

CONTENTS JUNE 2014

4 From The Publisher

6 Questions for CatonBredar takes your Qs each issue Belmont Stakes in the spotlight

14 The Teaser

Topics that titillate the racing mind

9 Back to Night School ndash

StakesBelmont HandicappingTop players from the best of Night School help your Derby decisions

18 Good Vs GreatNadeau analyzes the Triple Crown debate amp why many failed

34 Countdown to the Crown

Plonk analyzes all Belmont hopes and delivers his final picks in the Season 9 finale scouting report

29 Tripping OutShottenkirk looks at what has been successful in the Belmont Stakes

48 Harness HandicappingWarkentin features the legendary driver Cat Manzis career

50 North America Cup PreviewGet insight on our Night School Tour Mohawk stop coming June 14

44 BRIS Handicapping Hints

DeRosa dissects Belmont Park stats

52 AQHA Handicapping

Hancock asks the pedigree question Whos Your Daddy

56 Winning AnglesSpencer commentary shines light on Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream Park

64 Stakes ScheduleKey Dates

60 Playing on Paper

See our marked PPs and attack for non-winners of 2 claiming races

69 Galloping Out

Chromes good hands people

3

From the Publisher

Life not just sports can be a game of inches So while a loss by Real Quiet in the

rsquo98 Belmont by a finger-squeeze may have hurt for a while reality usually brings us back to work on Monday bills on the 31st and the next situation begging us to be ldquothis closerdquo to our goal

Yes the Triple Crown has sat vacant since 1978 We will watch with bated breath as California Chrome tries his hand at solving racingrsquos Rubikrsquos Cube After 2 frac12 minutes we will have our answer

The joy will be grand in victory the disappointment strong in defeat Either way wersquoll all look back one day and say we were inches away from it all ndash either literally by our presence watching or figuratively by how close we once again came

Soon enough it will be Monday not to mention the 31st and life will return to normalcy with or without a Triple Crown winner But even if itrsquos not that important in the grand scheme of things wouldnrsquot it sure be cool Enjoy the ride - JP

Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014

Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved

Editor Publisher Designer Jeremy Plonk

Contributing Writers Caton Bredar

Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau

Brian W Spencer Jennifer Hancock Ken Warkentin

Ed DeRosa

Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)

Contributing Photographers Adam Coglianese NYRA

Michael Lisa MeadowlandsMichael Burns Woodbine

Tom Baker Horse Player NOW Jim McCue Maryland Jockey Club Jerry Dzierwinski MD Jockey Club

Ken Weingartner USTA

4

5

Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom

Each issue wersquoll take your questions for Caton Bredar Horse Player NOW analyst Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV

WHY DO YOU THINK ITrsquoS BEEN SO LONG SINCE THE LAST TRIPLE CROWN WINNER

Relative to the history of the event it really hasnt been THAT long between Triple Crown winners true 36 years is the longest dry spell but it was 11 years between Sir Barton and Gallant Fox the first and second TC winners and then it was 25 years between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 73

I do think the emphasis on speed rather than stamina and the way the bloodstock business has changed over the years has also led to fewer true mile and one-half type horses That may be a part of the problem

Finally when the purse was bolstered to a million dollars back in 1998 the average field size for the Belmont increased almost exponentially The average field

size in the Belmont for a Triple Crown winner is 54 runners since 1998 the average field size for the Belmont stakes has been 11 making it that much tougher for any would-be TC runner to actually seal the deal

WHATrsquoS THE MOST IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING ELEMENT FOR EVALUATING

THE BELMONT STAKES

I think you need to have a horse who seems able to handle the distance by virtue of pedigree or running style or both AND you need to have a horse whos blossoming at the right time

6

Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom

Last year Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont He was focused he was training exceptionally well he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldnt be a problem

You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario but at the end of the day regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner

DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT

While the field size and the fact that for the first time hes had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors I believe

California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful weve seen since Silver Charm was

denied in 1997 by Touch Gold

Hes beaten nearly everyone hell be facing hes versatile he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldnt be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip hes gotten in the

previous two races

Ive been wrong before but hey

its more fun to dream

Follow me CBredar

7

This monthrsquos topic of review

STAKES HANDICAPPING

Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons

ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like

All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races

9

2012 Video Stakes Handicapping

Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo

with Brian Nadeau - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link

Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes

Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School

instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample

Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win

Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip

10

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET

CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program

JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING

Live chat with top handicappers as we

analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and

supporting races

JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS

12-week Summer Semester begins as we

take a newbie approach to real-time

action from Mountaineer Park

JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash

MONEY MANAGEMENT

Watch a live card as our team shows how

they balance a budget

JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash

CLASSCONDITIONS

The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types

LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash

PACE HANDICAPPING

We take aim at race shape and pace

analysis in real-time to open July

11

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Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

THE TEASER

From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense

Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase

The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo

In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in

1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the

role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process

Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their

defense of being accused of knocking over

assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared

Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe

14

because his mount refused to approach the tape

When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation

In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry

Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life

Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance

While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood

ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said

ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance

ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟

McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue

ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said

15

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the

Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 2: Hpn mag june 2014

CONTENTS JUNE 2014

4 From The Publisher

6 Questions for CatonBredar takes your Qs each issue Belmont Stakes in the spotlight

14 The Teaser

Topics that titillate the racing mind

9 Back to Night School ndash

StakesBelmont HandicappingTop players from the best of Night School help your Derby decisions

18 Good Vs GreatNadeau analyzes the Triple Crown debate amp why many failed

34 Countdown to the Crown

Plonk analyzes all Belmont hopes and delivers his final picks in the Season 9 finale scouting report

29 Tripping OutShottenkirk looks at what has been successful in the Belmont Stakes

48 Harness HandicappingWarkentin features the legendary driver Cat Manzis career

50 North America Cup PreviewGet insight on our Night School Tour Mohawk stop coming June 14

44 BRIS Handicapping Hints

DeRosa dissects Belmont Park stats

52 AQHA Handicapping

Hancock asks the pedigree question Whos Your Daddy

56 Winning AnglesSpencer commentary shines light on Rainbow 6 at Gulfstream Park

64 Stakes ScheduleKey Dates

60 Playing on Paper

See our marked PPs and attack for non-winners of 2 claiming races

69 Galloping Out

Chromes good hands people

3

From the Publisher

Life not just sports can be a game of inches So while a loss by Real Quiet in the

rsquo98 Belmont by a finger-squeeze may have hurt for a while reality usually brings us back to work on Monday bills on the 31st and the next situation begging us to be ldquothis closerdquo to our goal

Yes the Triple Crown has sat vacant since 1978 We will watch with bated breath as California Chrome tries his hand at solving racingrsquos Rubikrsquos Cube After 2 frac12 minutes we will have our answer

The joy will be grand in victory the disappointment strong in defeat Either way wersquoll all look back one day and say we were inches away from it all ndash either literally by our presence watching or figuratively by how close we once again came

Soon enough it will be Monday not to mention the 31st and life will return to normalcy with or without a Triple Crown winner But even if itrsquos not that important in the grand scheme of things wouldnrsquot it sure be cool Enjoy the ride - JP

Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014

Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved

Editor Publisher Designer Jeremy Plonk

Contributing Writers Caton Bredar

Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau

Brian W Spencer Jennifer Hancock Ken Warkentin

Ed DeRosa

Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)

Contributing Photographers Adam Coglianese NYRA

Michael Lisa MeadowlandsMichael Burns Woodbine

Tom Baker Horse Player NOW Jim McCue Maryland Jockey Club Jerry Dzierwinski MD Jockey Club

Ken Weingartner USTA

4

5

Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom

Each issue wersquoll take your questions for Caton Bredar Horse Player NOW analyst Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV

WHY DO YOU THINK ITrsquoS BEEN SO LONG SINCE THE LAST TRIPLE CROWN WINNER

Relative to the history of the event it really hasnt been THAT long between Triple Crown winners true 36 years is the longest dry spell but it was 11 years between Sir Barton and Gallant Fox the first and second TC winners and then it was 25 years between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 73

I do think the emphasis on speed rather than stamina and the way the bloodstock business has changed over the years has also led to fewer true mile and one-half type horses That may be a part of the problem

Finally when the purse was bolstered to a million dollars back in 1998 the average field size for the Belmont increased almost exponentially The average field

size in the Belmont for a Triple Crown winner is 54 runners since 1998 the average field size for the Belmont stakes has been 11 making it that much tougher for any would-be TC runner to actually seal the deal

WHATrsquoS THE MOST IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING ELEMENT FOR EVALUATING

THE BELMONT STAKES

I think you need to have a horse who seems able to handle the distance by virtue of pedigree or running style or both AND you need to have a horse whos blossoming at the right time

6

Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom

Last year Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont He was focused he was training exceptionally well he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldnt be a problem

You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario but at the end of the day regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner

DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT

While the field size and the fact that for the first time hes had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors I believe

California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful weve seen since Silver Charm was

denied in 1997 by Touch Gold

Hes beaten nearly everyone hell be facing hes versatile he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldnt be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip hes gotten in the

previous two races

Ive been wrong before but hey

its more fun to dream

Follow me CBredar

7

This monthrsquos topic of review

STAKES HANDICAPPING

Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons

ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like

All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races

9

2012 Video Stakes Handicapping

Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo

with Brian Nadeau - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link

Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes

Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School

instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample

Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win

Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip

10

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET

CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program

JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING

Live chat with top handicappers as we

analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and

supporting races

JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS

12-week Summer Semester begins as we

take a newbie approach to real-time

action from Mountaineer Park

JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash

MONEY MANAGEMENT

Watch a live card as our team shows how

they balance a budget

JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash

CLASSCONDITIONS

The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types

LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash

PACE HANDICAPPING

We take aim at race shape and pace

analysis in real-time to open July

11

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

THE TEASER

From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense

Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase

The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo

In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in

1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the

role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process

Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their

defense of being accused of knocking over

assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared

Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe

14

because his mount refused to approach the tape

When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation

In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry

Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life

Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance

While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood

ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said

ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance

ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟

McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue

ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said

15

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the

Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 3: Hpn mag june 2014

From the Publisher

Life not just sports can be a game of inches So while a loss by Real Quiet in the

rsquo98 Belmont by a finger-squeeze may have hurt for a while reality usually brings us back to work on Monday bills on the 31st and the next situation begging us to be ldquothis closerdquo to our goal

Yes the Triple Crown has sat vacant since 1978 We will watch with bated breath as California Chrome tries his hand at solving racingrsquos Rubikrsquos Cube After 2 frac12 minutes we will have our answer

The joy will be grand in victory the disappointment strong in defeat Either way wersquoll all look back one day and say we were inches away from it all ndash either literally by our presence watching or figuratively by how close we once again came

Soon enough it will be Monday not to mention the 31st and life will return to normalcy with or without a Triple Crown winner But even if itrsquos not that important in the grand scheme of things wouldnrsquot it sure be cool Enjoy the ride - JP

Horse Player NOW Magazine Copyright 2014

Horse Player NOW All Rights Reseved

Editor Publisher Designer Jeremy Plonk

Contributing Writers Caton Bredar

Jerry Shottenkirk Brian Nadeau

Brian W Spencer Jennifer Hancock Ken Warkentin

Ed DeRosa

Photography Chief Enzina Mastrippolito (Photosbyz)

Contributing Photographers Adam Coglianese NYRA

Michael Lisa MeadowlandsMichael Burns Woodbine

Tom Baker Horse Player NOW Jim McCue Maryland Jockey Club Jerry Dzierwinski MD Jockey Club

Ken Weingartner USTA

4

5

Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom

Each issue wersquoll take your questions for Caton Bredar Horse Player NOW analyst Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV

WHY DO YOU THINK ITrsquoS BEEN SO LONG SINCE THE LAST TRIPLE CROWN WINNER

Relative to the history of the event it really hasnt been THAT long between Triple Crown winners true 36 years is the longest dry spell but it was 11 years between Sir Barton and Gallant Fox the first and second TC winners and then it was 25 years between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 73

I do think the emphasis on speed rather than stamina and the way the bloodstock business has changed over the years has also led to fewer true mile and one-half type horses That may be a part of the problem

Finally when the purse was bolstered to a million dollars back in 1998 the average field size for the Belmont increased almost exponentially The average field

size in the Belmont for a Triple Crown winner is 54 runners since 1998 the average field size for the Belmont stakes has been 11 making it that much tougher for any would-be TC runner to actually seal the deal

WHATrsquoS THE MOST IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING ELEMENT FOR EVALUATING

THE BELMONT STAKES

I think you need to have a horse who seems able to handle the distance by virtue of pedigree or running style or both AND you need to have a horse whos blossoming at the right time

6

Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom

Last year Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont He was focused he was training exceptionally well he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldnt be a problem

You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario but at the end of the day regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner

DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT

While the field size and the fact that for the first time hes had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors I believe

California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful weve seen since Silver Charm was

denied in 1997 by Touch Gold

Hes beaten nearly everyone hell be facing hes versatile he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldnt be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip hes gotten in the

previous two races

Ive been wrong before but hey

its more fun to dream

Follow me CBredar

7

This monthrsquos topic of review

STAKES HANDICAPPING

Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons

ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like

All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races

9

2012 Video Stakes Handicapping

Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo

with Brian Nadeau - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link

Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes

Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School

instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample

Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win

Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip

10

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET

CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program

JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING

Live chat with top handicappers as we

analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and

supporting races

JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS

12-week Summer Semester begins as we

take a newbie approach to real-time

action from Mountaineer Park

JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash

MONEY MANAGEMENT

Watch a live card as our team shows how

they balance a budget

JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash

CLASSCONDITIONS

The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types

LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash

PACE HANDICAPPING

We take aim at race shape and pace

analysis in real-time to open July

11

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

THE TEASER

From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense

Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase

The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo

In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in

1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the

role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process

Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their

defense of being accused of knocking over

assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared

Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe

14

because his mount refused to approach the tape

When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation

In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry

Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life

Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance

While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood

ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said

ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance

ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟

McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue

ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said

15

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the

Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 4: Hpn mag june 2014

5

Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom

Each issue wersquoll take your questions for Caton Bredar Horse Player NOW analyst Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV

WHY DO YOU THINK ITrsquoS BEEN SO LONG SINCE THE LAST TRIPLE CROWN WINNER

Relative to the history of the event it really hasnt been THAT long between Triple Crown winners true 36 years is the longest dry spell but it was 11 years between Sir Barton and Gallant Fox the first and second TC winners and then it was 25 years between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 73

I do think the emphasis on speed rather than stamina and the way the bloodstock business has changed over the years has also led to fewer true mile and one-half type horses That may be a part of the problem

Finally when the purse was bolstered to a million dollars back in 1998 the average field size for the Belmont increased almost exponentially The average field

size in the Belmont for a Triple Crown winner is 54 runners since 1998 the average field size for the Belmont stakes has been 11 making it that much tougher for any would-be TC runner to actually seal the deal

WHATrsquoS THE MOST IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING ELEMENT FOR EVALUATING

THE BELMONT STAKES

I think you need to have a horse who seems able to handle the distance by virtue of pedigree or running style or both AND you need to have a horse whos blossoming at the right time

6

Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom

Last year Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont He was focused he was training exceptionally well he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldnt be a problem

You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario but at the end of the day regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner

DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT

While the field size and the fact that for the first time hes had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors I believe

California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful weve seen since Silver Charm was

denied in 1997 by Touch Gold

Hes beaten nearly everyone hell be facing hes versatile he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldnt be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip hes gotten in the

previous two races

Ive been wrong before but hey

its more fun to dream

Follow me CBredar

7

This monthrsquos topic of review

STAKES HANDICAPPING

Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons

ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like

All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races

9

2012 Video Stakes Handicapping

Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo

with Brian Nadeau - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link

Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes

Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School

instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample

Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win

Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip

10

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET

CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program

JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING

Live chat with top handicappers as we

analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and

supporting races

JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS

12-week Summer Semester begins as we

take a newbie approach to real-time

action from Mountaineer Park

JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash

MONEY MANAGEMENT

Watch a live card as our team shows how

they balance a budget

JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash

CLASSCONDITIONS

The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types

LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash

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We take aim at race shape and pace

analysis in real-time to open July

11

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03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

THE TEASER

From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense

Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase

The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo

In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in

1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the

role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process

Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their

defense of being accused of knocking over

assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared

Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe

14

because his mount refused to approach the tape

When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation

In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry

Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life

Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance

While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood

ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said

ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance

ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟

McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue

ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said

15

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the

Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 5: Hpn mag june 2014

Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom

Each issue wersquoll take your questions for Caton Bredar Horse Player NOW analyst Night School co-host and noted reporter for HRTV

WHY DO YOU THINK ITrsquoS BEEN SO LONG SINCE THE LAST TRIPLE CROWN WINNER

Relative to the history of the event it really hasnt been THAT long between Triple Crown winners true 36 years is the longest dry spell but it was 11 years between Sir Barton and Gallant Fox the first and second TC winners and then it was 25 years between Citation in 1948 and Secretariat in 73

I do think the emphasis on speed rather than stamina and the way the bloodstock business has changed over the years has also led to fewer true mile and one-half type horses That may be a part of the problem

Finally when the purse was bolstered to a million dollars back in 1998 the average field size for the Belmont increased almost exponentially The average field

size in the Belmont for a Triple Crown winner is 54 runners since 1998 the average field size for the Belmont stakes has been 11 making it that much tougher for any would-be TC runner to actually seal the deal

WHATrsquoS THE MOST IMPORTANT HANDICAPPING ELEMENT FOR EVALUATING

THE BELMONT STAKES

I think you need to have a horse who seems able to handle the distance by virtue of pedigree or running style or both AND you need to have a horse whos blossoming at the right time

6

Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom

Last year Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont He was focused he was training exceptionally well he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldnt be a problem

You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario but at the end of the day regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner

DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT

While the field size and the fact that for the first time hes had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors I believe

California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful weve seen since Silver Charm was

denied in 1997 by Touch Gold

Hes beaten nearly everyone hell be facing hes versatile he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldnt be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip hes gotten in the

previous two races

Ive been wrong before but hey

its more fun to dream

Follow me CBredar

7

This monthrsquos topic of review

STAKES HANDICAPPING

Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons

ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like

All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races

9

2012 Video Stakes Handicapping

Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo

with Brian Nadeau - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link

Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes

Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School

instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample

Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win

Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip

10

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET

CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program

JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING

Live chat with top handicappers as we

analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and

supporting races

JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS

12-week Summer Semester begins as we

take a newbie approach to real-time

action from Mountaineer Park

JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash

MONEY MANAGEMENT

Watch a live card as our team shows how

they balance a budget

JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash

CLASSCONDITIONS

The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types

LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash

PACE HANDICAPPING

We take aim at race shape and pace

analysis in real-time to open July

11

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

THE TEASER

From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense

Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase

The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo

In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in

1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the

role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process

Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their

defense of being accused of knocking over

assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared

Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe

14

because his mount refused to approach the tape

When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation

In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry

Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life

Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance

While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood

ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said

ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance

ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟

McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue

ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said

15

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

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Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 6: Hpn mag june 2014

Pose your questions each week in Night School ndash or by emailing askcatonhorseplayernowcom

Last year Palace Malice (right) physically looked a different horse going into the Belmont He was focused he was training exceptionally well he had matured physically and mentally and he had a pedigree that suggested the distance wouldnt be a problem

You can waste a lot of time trying to extrapolate the pace scenario but at the end of the day regardless of how fast they run early in the Belmont the one who is doing well and can handle the distance is the most likely winner

DO YOU THINK CALIFORNIA CHROME CAN DO IT

While the field size and the fact that for the first time hes had to breeze over a track other than Los Alamitos this year are both intimidating factors I believe

California Chrome has the best shot of any Triple Crown hopeful weve seen since Silver Charm was

denied in 1997 by Touch Gold

Hes beaten nearly everyone hell be facing hes versatile he appears to be training well and flourishing since the Preakness and the distance really shouldnt be an issue if he settles into the same type of trip hes gotten in the

previous two races

Ive been wrong before but hey

its more fun to dream

Follow me CBredar

7

This monthrsquos topic of review

STAKES HANDICAPPING

Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons

ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like

All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races

9

2012 Video Stakes Handicapping

Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo

with Brian Nadeau - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link

Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes

Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School

instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample

Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win

Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip

10

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET

CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program

JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING

Live chat with top handicappers as we

analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and

supporting races

JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS

12-week Summer Semester begins as we

take a newbie approach to real-time

action from Mountaineer Park

JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash

MONEY MANAGEMENT

Watch a live card as our team shows how

they balance a budget

JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash

CLASSCONDITIONS

The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types

LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash

PACE HANDICAPPING

We take aim at race shape and pace

analysis in real-time to open July

11

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

THE TEASER

From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense

Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase

The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo

In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in

1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the

role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process

Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their

defense of being accused of knocking over

assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared

Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe

14

because his mount refused to approach the tape

When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation

In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry

Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life

Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance

While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood

ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said

ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance

ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟

McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue

ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said

15

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

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Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 7: Hpn mag june 2014

This monthrsquos topic of review

STAKES HANDICAPPING

Since 2011 Night School has been teaching novice and expert handicappers alike in the finer points of playing the races Through live chats videos and radio simulcasts the best in the industry have shared their expertise free with horseplayers In each issue of Horse Player NOW Magazine we go ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo with a look at some of the high points of past lessons

ldquoStakes Handicappingrdquo will be at the fore for summer horseplayers starting with the new Belmont bonanza on June 7 These high-dollar races have a different feel and set of parameters that many horseplayers seek chiefly because of the increased competition an often shorter field size and the like

All Night School archives on any subject remain available free to read listen and view In this ldquoBack to Night Schoolrdquo edition wersquoll sample some of the best moments from the past three seasons as we have discussed handicapping stakes races

9

2012 Video Stakes Handicapping

Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo

with Brian Nadeau - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link

Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes

Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School

instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample

Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win

Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip

10

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET

CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program

JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING

Live chat with top handicappers as we

analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and

supporting races

JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS

12-week Summer Semester begins as we

take a newbie approach to real-time

action from Mountaineer Park

JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash

MONEY MANAGEMENT

Watch a live card as our team shows how

they balance a budget

JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash

CLASSCONDITIONS

The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types

LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash

PACE HANDICAPPING

We take aim at race shape and pace

analysis in real-time to open July

11

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

THE TEASER

From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense

Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase

The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo

In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in

1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the

role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process

Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their

defense of being accused of knocking over

assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared

Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe

14

because his mount refused to approach the tape

When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation

In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry

Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life

Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance

While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood

ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said

ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance

ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟

McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue

ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said

15

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT

LIVE RACING FRI amp SAT | FIRST POST 715 PM | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M

$3 MIL

average handle on live racing approaching $3000000per card

AVERAGE HANDLE

Average Pool $49178Average $1 Payout $6286

$25000 G

PICK 5 [RACES 1-5]

Average Pool $43290Average $1 Payout $2302

$30000 G

EARLY PICK 4 [RACES 3-6]

Average Pool $70211Average $1 Payout $5825

$50000 G

LATE PICK 4 [RACES 7-10]

low take out of 15 low take out of 15

ALL OFFERED WITH A 50cent MINIMUM

THECaptain returns

$100000 eMEADOWLANDS MATURITY

$50000 LEG OF THE

TVG FFA TROT

3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the

Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 8: Hpn mag june 2014

2012 Video Stakes Handicapping

Belmont Stakes angles with Andy Beyer - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Hank Goldberg Bob Neumeier amp Jay Privman - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping ldquoNadeaursquos Minutesrdquo

with Brian Nadeau - link

2013 Video Stakes Handicapping

with Jeremy Plonk Brian W Spencer amp Brian Nadeau - link

Revisit our full-length chat and embedded videos for ldquoHandicapping Stakes

Racesrdquo from August 20 2013 The session featured Night School

instructors Caton Bredar Jeremy Plonk amp Joe Kristufek A sample

Host - Jeremy Plonk I dont see very many giveaway stakes races from trainers Unless its a Breeders Cup horse making their first start of the year in a Grade 2 in February Im pretty much in the camp that they are here to win

Host - Caton Bredar which is a perfect example of why I love betting and handicapping stakes races over more ordinary races Most of the time you know where the horse is spending his time training how long hes been at the track etc With stakes horses you often know their every movehellip

10

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET

CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program

JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING

Live chat with top handicappers as we

analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and

supporting races

JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS

12-week Summer Semester begins as we

take a newbie approach to real-time

action from Mountaineer Park

JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash

MONEY MANAGEMENT

Watch a live card as our team shows how

they balance a budget

JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash

CLASSCONDITIONS

The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types

LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash

PACE HANDICAPPING

We take aim at race shape and pace

analysis in real-time to open July

11

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

THE TEASER

From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense

Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase

The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo

In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in

1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the

role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process

Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their

defense of being accused of knocking over

assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared

Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe

14

because his mount refused to approach the tape

When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation

In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry

Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life

Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance

While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood

ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said

ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance

ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟

McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue

ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said

15

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

THE NEWMEADOWLANDSRACING amp ENTERTA INMENT

LIVE RACING FRI amp SAT | FIRST POST 715 PM | P L A Y M E A D O W L A N D S C O M

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PICK 5 [RACES 1-5]

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THECaptain returns

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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the

Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 9: Hpn mag june 2014

COMING THIS MONTH IN NIGHT SCHOOL TUESDAYS 830 PM ET

CLICK FOR MORE Visit Horseplayernowcom for the racing industryrsquos FREE national online fan education program

JUNE 3 BELMONT STAKES HANDICAPPING

Live chat with top handicappers as we

analyze the final jewel in the Triple Crown and

supporting races

JUNE 10 LIVE RACING ndash NEWBIE FOCUS

12-week Summer Semester begins as we

take a newbie approach to real-time

action from Mountaineer Park

JUNE 17 LIVE RACING ndash

MONEY MANAGEMENT

Watch a live card as our team shows how

they balance a budget

JUNE 24 LIVE RACING ndash

CLASSCONDITIONS

The nightrsquos action is analyzed in real-time with a focus on the class amp race types

LOOK AHEAD JULY 1 LIVE RACING ndash

PACE HANDICAPPING

We take aim at race shape and pace

analysis in real-time to open July

11

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on the go

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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

THE TEASER

From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense

Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase

The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo

In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in

1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the

role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process

Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their

defense of being accused of knocking over

assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared

Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe

14

because his mount refused to approach the tape

When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation

In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry

Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life

Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance

While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood

ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said

ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance

ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟

McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue

ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said

15

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the

Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 10: Hpn mag june 2014

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

THE TEASER

From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense

Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase

The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo

In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in

1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the

role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process

Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their

defense of being accused of knocking over

assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared

Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe

14

because his mount refused to approach the tape

When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation

In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry

Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life

Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance

While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood

ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said

ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance

ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟

McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue

ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said

15

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

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Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 11: Hpn mag june 2014

THE TEASER

From Mutiny on the Bounty to lending a hand to lady legends eventually it will all make sense

Guilty Until Proven Guilty Belmont stews may have imagined they were in a no-win situation recently regarding California Chrome‟s use of a nasal strip in the Belmont Stakes but that doesn‟t compare with what their Aintree counterparts experienced following the 167th running of the Grand National the world‟s greatest steeplechase

The incident begged the age-old question ldquoIf racing stewards call an inquiry and no one hears it does it make a soundrdquo

In an incredible mutiny just short of what happened on the Bounty in

1789 39 of 40 riders refused to attend a stewards‟ inquiry into a botched start The jockeys led by 18-time champ AP McCoy in the

role of Fletcher Christian (pictured) were upset about the inquiry they felt reached a verdict without following due process

Jockeys were summoned immediately after the race to give evidence in their

defense of being accused of knocking over

assistant starter Simon McNeill after ignoring repeated instructions to stay back from the start line ahead of what eventually became a false start Brendan Powell the only rider not involved was spared

Teaser definition A male horse used at breeding farms to determine whether a mare is ready to receive a stallion Also perhaps the most unfulfilling occupation in the universe

14

because his mount refused to approach the tape

When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation

In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry

Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life

Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance

While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood

ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said

ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance

ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟

McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue

ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said

15

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the

Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 12: Hpn mag june 2014

because his mount refused to approach the tape

When the jocks heard they all had been handed two-day bans they refused to attend the final process of the inquiry The matter was forwarded to the British Horse Horseracing Authority disciplinary panel for further investigation

In the end Teaser has to admit the jocks had a point The horse already was out of the barn in the form of a bdquoguilty‟ verdict Why then close the door by attending an additional useless inquiry

Hands On Hands Off Aussie jockey Libby Hopwood gave fellow rider Holly McKechnie a helping hand just after the start of a race in Adelaide Australia The assist didn‟t help either rider win or lose the race but may have saved McKechnie‟s limb and life

Out of the gate McKechnie lost her balance astride her mount and appeared headed for a fall Hopwood reached over and grabbed her opponent for a precious few moments that allowed her to regain her balance

While video of the incident became an Internet sensation and

Hopwood was inundated with accolades track stewards weren‟t as impressed As reported in The Daily Telegraph chief steward Johan Petzer was unapologetic about hopping on Hopwood

ldquoThat‟s our job Libby wasn‟t fined reprimanded or cautioned She was reminded that the rules state you can‟t touch anybody else in the race‟‟ Petzer said

ldquoIf we don‟t do that next week something could happen that‟s less severe than this was and (a jockey) might think bdquoI‟ll quickly help this rider out by giving them a nudge‟ and that could have a totally different outcome or circumstance

ldquoWe weren‟t critical of Libby I can understand why people might think bdquoIt‟s a bit hard to remind her of the (rules)‟ but our job is not an easy one and we have to tell people what the rules say‟‟

McKechnie said she was destined to hit the deck had Hopwood not come to her rescue

ldquoI believe I was past the point of no return and I would have come off the horse I‟m eternally grateful to Libby‟‟ McKechnie said

15

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

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Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 13: Hpn mag june 2014

There have been several high-profile incidents where Aussie jockeys have come to the rescue of rivals and not been punished - nor reminded about their responsibilities

Shane Scriven was riding in Brisbane when he pulled up a horse mid-race to save a rival who had clung for dear life around his mount‟s neck

In 1996 Andrew Payne was involved in a mid-race collision at Caulfield only to show great horsemanship and pull himself on to the vacant saddle of a rival horse

Hopwood understood where the stewards were coming from but maintained she had zero regrets ldquoIf it came down to a fine or helping a rival jockey next time I‟d choose helping a jockeyrdquo

All Teaser can say is that it‟s a good thing for McKechnie that an bdquoold school‟ jock like Angel Cordero wasn‟t in Hopwood‟s boots He was so competitive between the rails he probably would have given her a nudge all righthellipin the wrong direction

In Elite Company

Speaking of jockeys and stewardshellipdid you hear about what happened in the Lady Legends Race at Pimlico on Black-Eyed Susan Day Hear about it Heck you may have even lost money wagering on it

The Lady Legends Race includes former female jockeys matched with mounts by lot in a charitable event that raises money for breast cancer research It was created in 2010 and this year‟s edition was its final presentation Trainers entering horses to compete in the event are awarded a $500 bonus

Jockey Stacie Clark-Rogers seemed headed for certain victory in the stretch when she wrapped up on her mount Graced That would have been fine except that the race wasn‟t over and Andrea Seefeldt aboard Zuerstgold knew it The pair roared past their geared-down foe and won by a mere neck

After the race Clark-Rogers understandably was a bit embarrassed saying Everything was going great and I just screwed up and misjudged the wire Its been a while since I hit the wire first

16

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

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Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 14: Hpn mag june 2014

Clark-Rogers won the 1994 Sovereign Award as Canadas leading apprentice rider and is the wife of The Stronach Group president Mike Rogers The Stronach Group owns Pimlico

This confluence of coincidence put Maryland stewards in a bit of a bind Even though the race was a charity event there was pari-mutuel wagering offered and therefore Clark-Rogers should be fined or suspended for her miscue However it‟s never good policy to spank the boss‟ wife

A suspension probably makes the most sense Since Clark-Rogers doesn‟t ride competitively anymore it won‟t matter much to her and more importantly to her husband either

It‟s understandable that a retired rider would make such a mistake and Clark-Rogers now joins elite company Bill Shoemaker one of racing‟s all-time great jockeys once misjudged the finish line in the 1957 Kentucky Derby The miscue cost his mount Gallant Man the race

To make matters worse as the story goes a few nights before the race the horse‟s owner dreamt that Shoemaker would make such a blunder Teaser hopes that like Shoemaker Clark-Rogers eventually has a bdquoFerdinand moment‟

She loves horses and the sport works tirelessly for various racing-related charities and produced HRTV‟s 2013 Eclipse Award Television-Features winner ldquoSaratoga War Horserdquo which detailed the work of an organization using equine therapy to assist struggling war veterans

- HPN

Stacie Clark-Rogers joined Patty Cooksey for autographs

before the Lady Legends race at Pimlico and Bill Shoemaker

in the history books afterward

17

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THECaptain returns

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3YO Pacer of the Year Captaintreacherous returns to the Meadowlands in the

Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

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Page 15: Hpn mag june 2014

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Race Card also features

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 16: Hpn mag june 2014

GOOD VS GREAT THE TRIPLE CROWN DEBATE

By Brian Nadeau

Itrsquos not easy this thing they call

the Triple Crown Irsquove been

involved in racing for the better

part of 20 years and in that time

Irsquove witnessed a somewhat

astonishing eight Triple Crown

misses over that span ndash seven who

made it to the gate and one who

did not (Irsquoll Have Another) Irsquod like

to think I have a strong feel for the

past eight having been at Belmont

Park to witness them all

19

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 17: Hpn mag june 2014

There are myriad reasons as to

why these horses didnrsquot claim

racingrsquos most elusive prize but is

there a relationship between the

failed eight-pack and how that

might play into California Chromersquos

quest for racing immortality June 7

at Belmont

1997 Silver Charm

The Bob Baffert-trained gray was

as game as they come winning a

pair of street fights in the Kentucky

Derby and Preakness and arrived

at Belmont as the best horse in a

group that included his arch rival

Free House who was 3rd in the

Derby and 2nd in the Preakness

and Touch Gold a hard-luck 4th in

the Preakness

So why didnrsquot Silver Charm win the

Triple Crown Sometimes good

horses just get outrun by good

horses That was the case with

Silver Charm Touch Gold

announced his presence in the

Preakness when he ran out of his

mind to be 4th after a ton of

trouble and followed through in the

Belmont He also got one of the

best rides yoursquoll ever see from

Chris McCarron who had him on

the lead early then backed off

tipped out on the far turn and

then swung him out wide in deep

stretch where Silver Charm couldnrsquot

see him Silver Charm just lost to a

better horse on the day and a

masterful ride It happens daily in

racing but unfortunately for him

it happened on the wrong day

1998 Real Quiet

Real Quiet a year later had

Baffert right back in the spotlight

―The Fish as he was known for

his slender physique had his own

arch rival in Victory Gallop whose

sustained stretch runs fell short

when 2nd in both the Derby and

Preakness Real Quiet was the

blueprint of a Derby winner a

tactical stalker who had the ability

to blow a race open off the far

turn Thatrsquos exactly what Kent

Desormeaux tried to in the

Belmont when he assumed

command entering the stretch and

opened up a seemingly

insurmountable 4-length lead But

this time it was Gary Stevens who

had lost the Triple Crown in the

shadow of the wire with Silver

Charm taking dead aim with

20

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 18: Hpn mag june 2014

Victory Gallop The pair hit the line

together the photo was too close

to call Needless to say Real

Quietrsquos nose wasnrsquot the first down

Many have opined Desormeaux

moved too early and therersquos

possibly something to it but Real

Quietrsquos style was to do just that So

itrsquos not like he took him out of his

element And when you know you

have a dead one-run closer to

beat building a big lead isnrsquot the

worst idea in the world Victory

Gallop simply ran out of room in

Louisville and Baltimore but the

Belmont was a race he was built

for While deep closers donrsquot often

win the ―Test of the Champion

Victory Gallop was best-suited for

the big sweeping turns of Big

Sandy and he ran accordingly Kill

Desormeaux if you want (jockey

error will rear its head shortly) but

like Silver Charm Real Quiet simply

got run down by a better horse on

the day and quite possibly a better

horse in general

And itrsquos worth noting as a bit of an

aside as good as Silver Charm and

Real Quiet were they were hardly

great horses Did you know Silver

Charm never won a G1 race in this

country not named the Kentucky

Derby or Preakness and counted

the Dubai World Cup as his only

other win in racingrsquos elite

company As for Real Quiet he ran

midway through his 4-year-old

season and retired with a 6-for-20

record He won three other races

aside from a MSW the Derby and

the Preakness As Irsquoll lament over

the next several paragraphs good

horses donrsquot win the Triple Crown

great horses do

1999 Charismatic

In rsquo97-rsquo98 we saw good horses

being beaten by better horses or

better performances but for

Charismatic in 1999 it was

something a bit different

Unlike the two Baffert runners

who entered the Belmont each

with five starts on the year this D

Wayne Lukas trainee had met the

starter a somewhat remarkable

nine times Charismatic also had

won the G2 Lexington two weeks

before the Derby meaning the

Belmont was his fourth start in

seven weeks Quite frankly it was

asking a lot for a horse that was

21

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 19: Hpn mag june 2014

once entered for a $62500

claiming tag earlier in the year

Sadly Charismatic broke down in

deep stretch after relinquishing the

lead to Lemon Drop Kid and would

never race again Injuries and the

rigors of the Triple Crown reared

their ugly head here Lukas had no

idea what he had in early February

as he often likes to say when

retelling the Charismatic story so

you canrsquot fault him for the path he

took And after winning the

Lexingtonmdashand running very fast

when doing somdashthe Derby was a

no-brainer And when you win the

Derby you go on to the Preakness

and so on And Charismatic much

like Silver Charm and Real Quiet

was run down by a horse who

would go on to do great things

Lemon Drop Kid would win the G1

Travers later in the summer and be

a real monster at age 4 when

earning an Eclipse Award

2002 War Emblem

War Emblem had Baffert yet again

knocking on the door of racingrsquos

staunchest and most exclusive

club His case was precarious as

he entered the Belmont off a

surprising win in the Derby when

he walked on the lead and led a

merry-go-round finish over Proud

Citizen and Perfect Drift He

showed more mettle in the

Preakness but was all out to beat

the rank outsider Magic Weisner

the local hope at 45-1 The fact

that War Emblem was a somewhat

icy 125-1 in a modest 11-horse

Belmont field gave sense of the

publicrsquos trepidation

As it happened War Emblem blew

the break became rank and never

really lifted a hoof in finishing 8th

and well behind improbable 70-1

winner Sarava While itrsquos easy to

dismiss the no-show because of

the brutal start the likelihood is

War Emblem just wasnrsquot good

enough He took advantage of

remarkable fortune in the Derby

pace and Preakness competition

2003 Funny Cide

The New York-bred gelding Funny

Cide no doubt rates one of the

better Triple Crown feel-good

stories in recent memory He upset

the Derby and then completely

blitzed his opposition in the

Preakness by 9 frac34 lengths But

22

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 20: Hpn mag june 2014

while everything went right in the

first two legs of the Triple Crown

little went right in the third

First off no one would argue that

Empire Maker the Juddmonte

blueblood was the most talented

3-year-old in the country that year

especially since he beat Funny Cide

when winning the G1 Wood

Memorial Unfortunately he battled

foot issues leading up to the

Derby still mustering a late-

running 2nd But Empire Maker

bypassed the Preakness got

healthy and entered the Belmont

on top of his game

Second heavy rains descended on

Long Island and the Belmont was

run over a real mess of a track

Funny Cide broke running was a

bit rank on the lead and was done

when the real running began while

Empire Maker was in high gear and

won with something to spare over

a game Ten Most Wanted who

would go on to win the Travers

The case of Funny Cide is a tricky

one because he warmed so many

hearts and became a national

sensation along the way with his

grass roots connections and

working-class hero persona And

as often is the case under

circumstances like his people want

to make a horse into something

they were not Funny Cide was a

very good horse but not a Hall of

Famer He happened to be great

for two weeks that encompassed

the Derby and the Preakness and

well a solid graded stakes

campaigner the rest of his career

He annexed the G3 Excelsior and

G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup as a 4-

year-old but thereafter won only

the G3 Dominion Day at Woodbine

Funny Cide also was sired by

Distorted Humor so winning the 1

frac14-mile Derby was surprise

enough getting 1 frac12 miles in the

Belmont seemed virtually

impossible At the end of the day

Funny Cide was a much inferior

horse to Empire Maker and you

could argue he was a coin-flip

against Ten Most Wanted

2004 Smarty Jones

Just one year later another feel-

good story developed when Smarty

Jones blitzed through the Triple

Crown season and entered the

Belmont undefeated in eight

23

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 21: Hpn mag june 2014

lifetime starts

The son of

Elusive Quality

was a bit like

Funny Cide in

that he had a

sprintermiler

pedigree

Smarty Jones

had faced one

of the most late-

developing Triple

Crown groups in

recent memory Names like

Borrego Purge Eddington and

Rock Hard Ten had yet to establish

their G1 form theyrsquod show later He

entered the Belmont as a

legitimate odds-on favorite off a

similarly scary 11 frac12-length win in

the Preakness

Even the biggest cynic on the

backstretch would have trouble

beating Smarty Jones in the

Belmont which is one of the

reasons why he went off a

warranted 1-5 in the nine-horse

field And much like Funny Cide a

year earlier not a lot went right for

Smarty Jones in the Belmont albeit

for somewhat different reasons

First off he was pressed quite

surprisingly by Eddington who

was a stalkercloser down the

backstretch while the latter was 4-

wide Smarty Jones easily repelled

Eddington but Rock Hard Ten then

went up to put pressure on his

inside He swatted him away too

entering the far turn but then

Stewart Elliott decided it was time

to go asking Smarty Jones who

opened up a daylight lead on the

field off the turn By now we all

know the story as Birdstone

(pictured above) closed late and

denied yet another Triple Crown

that seemed a foregone

conclusion

24

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 22: Hpn mag june 2014

So exactly what happened

Several things actually The early

pressure Smarty Jones faced

certainly didnrsquot help not to

mention he was by Elusive

Quality out of the Smile mare Irsquoll

Get Along meaning he already

was stretching his genetic rubber

band beyond thin But lastly the

inexperience of Elliott over the

wide expansive Belmont main

track has to be a big deciding

factor Itrsquos often said that the

Belmont is a weird race because

horses will never again be asked to

go 1 frac12 miles on the main track

And while thatrsquos right itrsquos also

correct to say jockeys wonrsquot be

asked to do it either Especially a

journeyman like Elliott who made

his name far away from Elmont

New York

He simply moved too early when

Smarty Jones opened up off the

turn Would a more patient ride

have secured the Triple Crown Itrsquos

impossible to say but therersquos little

doubt nerves and the magnitude of

the moment caught up with Elliott

who failed to save anything for

deep stretch and was run down by

Birdstone at 36-1

Big Brown 2008

Big Brown brought the circus that

was and is Rick Dutrow Jr to the

limelight Big Brown and Smarty

Jones had a lot of similarities both

were undefeated entering the

Belmont both dominated the first

two legs of the Triple Crown and

both had taken advantage of what

appeared at the time a weak

group of 3-year-olds Big Brown

defeated the ill-fated filly Eight

Belles and G3 winner Denis Of Cork

in the Derby then walloped Macho

Again and the New York-bred

Icabad Crane in the Preakness The

fact that Denis Of Cork was

second-choice in the Belmont at 7-

1 with no one else under 14-1

said as much about the lack of

25

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 23: Hpn mag june 2014

talent in the field as it did about

Big Brownrsquos daunting shadow

What happened to Big Brown in

the Belmont is still up for debate

today but basically he didnrsquot get

away to a great beginning was

rank and steadied a few times

while chasing the pace of eventual

winner DarsquoTara swung out wide

went wider entering the far turn

and then was shockingly pulled

up nearing the quarter pole ―Odd

doesnrsquot begin to describe what

happened to Big Brown during his

Belmont run

What is clear is that Big Brown for

whatever reason didnrsquot have his

mind on running in the Belmont

Chalk it up to ―one of those days

if you want His patch-work foot

issues possibly were part of the

storyline too

For me personally the staunchest

advocate of the ―good horses donrsquot

win the Triple Crown great ones

do thinking therersquos a small part

that thinks this was a case of the

Racing Gods looking out for what

was best for the club and the

sport

Did Dutrow and his laundry list of

suspensions and violations belong

in the most hallowed club in all of

sports Maybe Irsquom reaching for

something thatrsquos not there but a

part of me believes it

Fitting the Crown

The reasons or lack thereof for

defeat are wide spread bad racing

luck poor judgment shaky

pedigrees rough trips injuries and

the unknown of an off-track all

potentially get in the way Wersquove

also seen better horses flexing

their muscles on the big day and

vanquishing those who might

simply have been second-best

Is there a correlation between all

the failures and California Chromersquos

quest Itrsquos tough to say but I just

keep coming back to what Irsquove said

all along ―Good horses donrsquot win

the Triple Crown great ones do

26

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 24: Hpn mag june 2014

The last four Triple Crown winners

were Citation Secretariat Seattle

Slew and Affirmed nothing short

of legends of the American turf A

look back at the eight-pack

outlined in this article and for

countless different reasons itrsquos

pretty obvious none of them were

remotely close

to the last four

Triple Crown

champs

As for

California

Chrome what

we do know is

that hersquos by

an unknown

sire in Lucky

Pulpit and out of the Not For Love

mare Love The Chase ndash hardly

great bloodlines but at least

therersquos some distance in there You

canrsquot knock his jockey Victor

Espinoza as hersquos been one of the

best in the business for years and

was the pilot of War Emblem So

hersquos been down this road before

The competition Well it seems

marginal and therersquos little doubt

California Chrome is a deserving

favorite though not to the degree

of Smarty Jones and Big Brown

Horses like Wicked Strong and

Tonalist have talent and pedigree

and Ride On Curlin wasnrsquot too far

behind in the Preakness

If I have a knock it would be his

schedule as the

Belmont will be

his 13th start

and he hasnrsquot

had a break

since his

career debut

April 26 2013

He now runs

for the third

time in five

weeks while

facing several Derby horses that

passed the Preakness

So is California Chrome that great

horse that will knock down the

door and end 36 years of misery

Irsquom just not too sure Irsquove been

fooled before while witnessing first-

hand the near misses listed above

making the drive to Belmont quite

certain I would see history only to

turn around and head home with

mixed emotions ndash HPN

27

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 25: Hpn mag june 2014

Going wide like Rags to Riches

in 2007 (above) has been a

fair trade-off in Belmont trips

- By Jerry Shottenkirk

Thoroughbreds just arenrsquot suited

for a mile and one-half

Thatrsquos why the Belmont Stakes

consistently draws the fewest

entrants of the Triple Crown races

Itrsquos a grueling proposition and it

comes back to a search for the

perfect trip

California Chromes trips have been

SO perfect in the Kentucky Derby

and Preakness that some observers

and handicappers hold it against

him Irsquom in the camp that says if a

horse continues to do the same

thing over and over again itrsquos not

an accident Itrsquos the way he runs

Does California Chrome have

another PT in him Only time will

tell He does have the preferred

running style

Over the past 20 Belmonts speed

rarely has won At the same time

few horses have closed in the

stretch The way to win the final

jewel is to win it on that great

expanse known as the far turn

Back in 2005 when Jeremy Rose

asked Afleet Alex to go he quickly

picked off opponents one at a time

weaving as he went and opened a

long lead in the stretch He made

up considerable ground got

29

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 26: Hpn mag june 2014

through the traffic and forwarded

one of the best performances in

recent Belmont Stakes history But

the fact remains that he was in

front turning for home

Much depends on your particular

definition of a closer If in your

mind a closer is eighth 15 out of

it turning for home itrsquos probably

not going to happen In most

cases the Belmont is won prior to

the stretch run Afleet Alex was

ninth going into the far turn but

was in front coming out of it

There always are exceptions

Belmont talk begins with

Secretariat and horses like Risen

Star Bet Twice and Easy Goer

were dominant However we are

in a different era with different

results

A personal study of the past 20

years of the Belmont Stakes has

revealed these patterns

You donrsquot want to lead at the

start or shortly thereafter the

break Only Darsquo Tara in 2008

led from basically flagfall to

finish He led by three lengths

early and spent most of the

race four or five lengths

ahead He is the exception

Deep closers have about as

much success as front-

runners Rip-roaring closing

bids from 20 lengths out of it

just donrsquot happen in the

Belmont mainly due to the

slower pace and the distance

Jazil was far back in 2006

dropping a dozen lengths

back at one point But he did

his running on the far turn

was in front in the stretch and

rode the momentum to a 1

14-length win

No winning horse in the past

20 years has been worse than

fourth upon entering the

stretch It was Summer Bird

in 2009 that was fourth at the

furlong grounds and he

rallied for a 2 34-length win

The most dominant

performance during this

period came from Point Given

in a 12 14-length romp in

2001 Never more than two

lengths behind early Point

30

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 27: Hpn mag june 2014

Given took Gary Stevensrsquo cue

when called upon and

grabbed the lead with a half-

mile to go He wasnrsquot in the

neighborhood of ldquotremendous

machinerdquo but he was in a

race by himself in the stretch

Going around seems to work

Union Rags won the 2012

edition with an inside run to

nip Paynter but the vast

majority of winning moves

have come from the outside

sometimes with awful trips It

has been proven in the

Belmont that risking a loss of

ground is better than risking

momentum After a mile or

so horses just canrsquot slow

down and then restart a rally

with any kind of effectiveness

The winning trip

Millions of race fans will be

watching Victor Espinoza map out

California Chromersquos quest for

racing immortality Judging by the

performances in his last four races

California Chrome has the

preferred running style to win the

Belmont Stakes

Whether his inner-pedigree

reaches up and grabs him by the

throat latch in stretch thatrsquos

anyonersquos guess Pedigrees can

make great horses but great

horses can also make pedigrees

The view of Chromersquos sire Lucky

Pulpit could soar in a matter of 25

minutes

Handicappers want to be right and

the percentages say therersquos a

better chance for California

Chromersquos failure than

success The proof is in

the numbers No Triple

Crown since Affirmed in

1978

The safe pick is to go

against However safe

picks go against our inner

handicapper

31

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 28: Hpn mag june 2014

Espinoza will have the option to be

anywhere he wants California

Chrome has the tactical speed to

adjust He could probably send and

be well in front during the early

going but the percentages indicate

hersquod be better off in a tracking

position Why mess up a good

thing That has been the modus

operandi in the first two legs of the

Triple Crown and any of several

horses could fall in and take on the

pacesetting chores

Thanks to Tonalist Samraat or

possibly Commissioner California

Chrome has the opportunity to get

the trip Espinoza wants

Will California Chrome get the Point

Given trip with an effortless

acceleration to scintillating victory

The guess here is no

Looking at his running style

Chrome has the opportunity for an

Empire Maker journey (3rd to 1st

held on in 2003) Commendable

(2nd to 1st winning by 1 12

lengths in 2000) Thunder Gulch

(4th to 1st winning by 2 in 1995) or

Tabasco Cat (3rd to 1st winning by

2 in 1994)

Three of the four listed there were

trained by D Wayne Lukas

Chrome is trained by Art Sherman

but look for a Lukas trip and a trek

to that place that is just a few

rungs higher than most - HPN

No Excuses for the Right One

Perhaps no Belmont winner

had more roadblocks than the

filly Rags to Riches in 2007

Some say being a filly was the

obvious strike against her

And it got worse once they

rang the bell She stumbled

out of the gate and went wide

into the first turn and was in

the five-path through much of

her run She engaged the

leader the mighty Curlin at

the quarter pole and was

head and head with him the

rest of the way and won by

that margin Despite the bad

journey she looked him in

the eye and beat him

ndash Jerry Shottenkirk

32

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 29: Hpn mag june 2014

Week 23 June 6 2014

By Jeremy Plonk

Editor‟s Note The 9th season of Countdown to the Crown offers the most comprehensive scouting report of the 3-year-old scene

Countdowntothecrowncom is the home each Friday from Jan 3 through the Belmont Stakes and Countdown keeps you appraised of the rising stars of the sophomore class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes

This weekrsquos fearless forecast

More than 100000 fans will line Belmont Park hoping to be a part of history The sidewalks of New York will have a California Chrome flavor with a Wicked Strong danger from Boston In the pantheon of New York sports it‟s a geographic cluster to make any local exclaim ldquofuhgeddaboutitrdquo

But we racing diehards dig deeper The challenge for us remains not to coronate but rather to canvass our options and let no jewel unturned

We‟ll go horse-by-horse as is our

Triple Crown race-week custom to

give you a direct take on each of

the 11 official Belmont entrants

Belmont Stakes Pace Scenario

SPEED Samraat PRESS

California Chrome General a Rod

Tonalist MIDPACK

Commissioner Medal Count Matterhorn CLOSER

Wicked Strong Ride On Curlin

Matuszak Commanding Curve

34

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 30: Hpn mag june 2014

Not On My Tickets

MATUSZAK (pictured) There‟s not a proverbial ldquoquitterrdquo in this year‟s Belmont that you can project to pop and stop and then assume the caboose through the wire So while Matuszak‟s running style and distance-specialist trainer Bill Mott almost assure he won‟t finish last he‟s still my first toss-out in the field Too many other closers who‟ve shown more have to misfire for him to crack the top 4 and the superfecta He appeared poised in the Federico Tesio to make a leap forward if he had one in him and Kid Cruz ran away from him in the final furlong once clear He‟s got a long series of trouble lines because he lacks a brilliant turn of foot to get in and out of situations Mike Smith will guide him wide try to stay clear and pick off as many runners as he can while relatively one-geared That ought to come close to splitting the field if all works as well as it could

MATTERHORN The Aqueduct maiden breaker took considerable action at Wynn Las Vegas over the winter opening 250-1 amp dropping to 75-1 before returning to action

at age 3 But his 3 starts this year offered no inclination that the dough lost was smart money to any degree It may have come from the CoolmoreTabor crew and even if so they unloaded the Tapit colt in recent weeks to new owner Eclipse

Thoroughbreds While Matterhorn has improved his speed figures in each start of the year a distant fourth in the Peter Pan wasn‟t enough to keep jockey John Velazquez around for long-time meal-ticket trainer Todd Pletcher The EclipseTAPJoe Bravo troika stunned the world in the Arkansas Derby in April with 41-1 baffler Danza but if Matterhorn scales the Belmont Stakes mountain his backers will be able to thump their chests for a decade saying ldquoI had that onerdquo

35

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 31: Hpn mag june 2014

SAMRAAT The star of New York looked California Chrome in the eye at the top of the Kentucky Derby stretch but soon found visions of only his rival‟s tail It‟s quite possible with the pace dynamics of the Belmont that it‟s Samraat‟s tail they all see early jockey Jose Ortiz has the choice to put him on the lead if he so desires ndash he‟s the quickest horse in thefield who may want it (in the absence of Social Inclusion)

But how Samraat finds another quarter-mile at Belmont as the cause to turn the tables on Chrome might be easier to ascertain than the lyrics to ldquoIt‟s the End of the World as We Know Itrdquo from REM It wouldn‟t be the end of the world if Samraat were to become the first NY-bred to win the Belmont since

Forester in 1882 but it won‟t be on the backing of my dollar He offered no match late for Wicked Strong in the Wood Memorial and that race hasn‟t exactly been a Belmont Stakes trampoline in the past decade

Wood Memorial Alumni in Belmont Since

Empire Maker-Funny Cide

Year Horse Wood Bel

bdquo13 Vyjack 3rd 8th bdquo13 Freedom Child 10th 13th ‟12 Street Life 6th 4th ‟12 My Adonis 7th 8th ‟11 Isn‟t He Perfect 5th 12th ‟08 Anak Nakal 5th 3rddh rsquo06 Jazil 2nd 1st ‟06 Bob and John 1st 8th ‟06 Platinum Couple 5th 7th ‟06 Deputy Glitters 6th 11th ‟04 Master David 2nd 7th ‟04 Eddington 3rd 4th

TONALIST If not for one very key reason this is the kind of horse I run from in the Belmont Stakes A romping Peter Pan win over an bdquooff‟ track cannot be trusted at face value yet surely it will inspire many to the windows and drive him to underlay odds But the Belmont Stakes is a mile and one-half and his trainer Christophe Clement ranks among the top 2-3

36

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 32: Hpn mag june 2014

horsemen in America to get a horse to last this kind of trip Clement‟s superior horsemanship has been put to the test with a lung infection that forced Tonalist to miss the Wood Memorial and then some foot issues that necessitated training in 2 bar shoes in recent weeks (work video) ndash reportedly he will wear regular plates in the Belmont Stakes Nonetheless these are hiccups and lest we forget how assured we were that Big Brown‟s feet were just fine before he DNF‟d at short odds in ‟08 Clement is no Rick Dutrow in the public‟s eye mind you and he has my total respect He will have Tonalist as well as he can for the ldquoTest of the Championrdquo But he‟s picking up 9 pounds and 4 furlongs off a 1-turn victory

Taking the cautious approach in appreciating the Peter Pan is wise when dealing with off tracks that exaggerate the plussesminuses of nearly every horse in the field The race Tonalist owns that tells you he could be a player is his Feb 22 allowance at Gulfstream vs Constitution and Wicked Strong But a quick finger-count tells you that was 105 days ago I am not confident leaving Tonalist off my tickets but the wide draw makes it somewhat easier to take that risk

Exotics Inclusions

RIDE ON CURLIN My cap doffed and pride humbled following his better-than-projected second in the Preakness I respect this third-time Triple Crown entrant more than at any point in his career He loomed a menace to California Chrome at Old Hilltop only to hang late and perhaps lend some credence to the distance limitations I‟ve placed on him throughout the spring So while he may lack the big punch to finish one of these elite classics to relegate him once again to a non-exotics contender would be risky business And now that Hall of Famer and all-time Belmont legend John Velazquez (right) has taken the mount I don‟t recommend you slip on the Ray-Bans and slide in your socks across the hardwoods singing ldquoOld Time Rock n‟ Rollrdquo Leave the risky business to Tom Cruise and include Ride On Curlin at least on the bottom of your tris and supers he‟s earned the perch Joel Rosario jumping to ride the Clement-trained Tonalist makes a lot of sense year-bdquoround vs the 4-horse Billy Gowan barn

37

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 33: Hpn mag june 2014

COMMISSIONER Countdown readers know we‟ve been eyeing him for the Belmont Stakes for more than 4 months now and labeled him the Drosselmeyer of the 2014 class A 2-time winner at a mile and one-eighth there is no doubt that Commissioner has lacked brilliance since moving to face stakes company He‟s been even and disappointing to this eye with such high expectations But he‟s got 3 Belmont Stakes winners in the first 2 generations of his pedigree ndash sire AP Indy grandsire Seattle Slew and damsire Touch Gold He‟s also the kind of steady hummer that runs well in the Belmont Stakes negotiating the distance better than the speed and ahead of the deep closers who really didn‟t want the trip either When you get the nation‟s leading jockey Javier Castellano aboard a Todd Pletcher trainee in a race he‟s had great success of late you can‟t help but be drawn to a 20-1 price Pletcherrsquos Belmont Highlights

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Palace Malice 13-1 1st bdquo11 Stay Thirsty 16-1 2nd ‟09 Dunkirk 9-2 2nd ‟08 Ready‟s Echo 28-1 3rd ‟07 Rags to Riches 4-1 1st ‟06 Bluegrass Cat 9-2 2nd ‟06 Sunriver 6-1 3rd

COMMANDING CURVE While 3 of the last 4 Derby runner-ups have awaited the Belmont with deflating results the question for those backing Commanding Curve is two-fold One does he outrank those who have failed under similar bids Two does he outrank his 2014 Belmont competitors

Derby 2nd Awaiting Belmont

Year Horse Odds Finish

bdquo13 Golden Soul 11-1 9th ‟11 Nehro 9-2 4th bdquo10 Ice Box 9-5 8th

The bottom line Commanding Curve is a comer who won‟t run out of gas and has been in the money in 5 of his last 6 starts Many deep closers dependent on pace and traffic can‟t rattle off such consistent placings Ice Box was only 5-for-16 in the money in his career while Golden Soul sits active at 4-for-12 Nehro hit the board in only half of his 12 starts I favor Commanding Curve‟s chances at a major Belmont impact over those recent comparables Visually I like what I see from his training videos (link) and still shots Dallas Stewart appears to have him sitting on his best performance and one that can put him squarely in the mix late

38

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 34: Hpn mag june 2014

GENERAL A ROD No horse galloped out better than General a Rod in the Preakness and while such measures do little for some handicappers a daunting distance at Belmont surely could be a place where such information is of use Two items I use to gauge a stretch-out in distance are gallop-outs and pedigree And General a Rod (pictured) earns his stars in both areas

While Roman Ruler may not sound like a Belmont winner to you as the sire don‟t forget his son Ruler On Ice won this race in 2011 And damsire Dynaformer is where you really want to look His BRIS average winning distance of his offspring is 84 furlongs best of any contender in the race and 1 of only 2 damsires over 8F (Tonalist 82) General a Rod will run the entire 12 furlongs of the Belmont now it‟s just a matter of how much faster than each of his rivals

Rosie Napravnik picks up the mount and you can expect this one-time speed horse to show much more tactical pace He‟s had

traffic issues in Louisville and Baltimore and the race shape at Belmont would appear to alleviate some of his issues simply by breaking with the early mix It‟s conceivable he even goes to the front if Samraat and California

Chrome are not intent on the spot With a clean trip and pedigree on the bottom to keep going don‟t be surprised if this is the horse they have to tackle midway

on the turn He was 30-1 in the Derby 20-1 in the Preakness and could hold a similar price at Belmont with a chance to make some real noise

Win Contenders

To lend perspective in our Derby edition of Countdown only 2 win contenders were identified in the field of 20 ndash California Chrome and Candy Boy the best of the west For the Preakness when many pundits doubted the time and figures of California Chrome Countdown circled him as the sole win contender in the race

39

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 35: Hpn mag june 2014

But the Belmont can be a different beast and handicapping it takes into account the proper amount of risk and reason While the New York series finale runs through California figuratively 3 legitimate win contenders have emerged

WICKED STRONG Often folks‟ opinions of horses have more to do with where they started out than where they finished As the clear second choice in Kentucky Derby betting at 6-1 there was much ado about Wicked Strong‟s trip and excuses in Louisville But pin that exact trip on a 30-1 shot and few would contend it was a huge reason to fire back on the runner at Belmont If you like Wicked Strong in the Belmont Stakes and I do it‟s not because he ran into any traffic under the Twin Spires that amounted to anything In fact he already had been passed by Medal Count when the veering Danza cut in front of both of them That Wicked Strong was slightly behind Medal Count saved him from a more severe impact The credentials for Wicked Strong in the Belmont ring true even if I thought his trip in Louisville was a pretty good one as Derby runs go He‟s got a stamina pedigree for a stamina trainer and he‟s a horse

who has shown championship caliber on his best day He‟s the most legitimate Wood Memorial winner to reach the Triple Crown series since Empire Maker who won this race in 2003 with the benefit of some time between the Derby and his rematch with Funny Cide A freshened Wicked Strong who has been working well (click video below to play) should prove dangerous in his bid to play the role of Empire Maker or Birdstone

MEDAL COUNT The more I watch the Derby replay the more I‟m convinced he runs third if not for Danza‟s stretch interference Again it comes down to your starting point for many horse-players Those who dismissed him in Louisville probably think Wicked Strong had the worse trip and is the stronger Belmont player Great debates to have and in some cases you don‟t have tohellipthanks to the world of exotics wagering So now the question becomes Can he

40

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

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GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 36: Hpn mag june 2014

jump past California Chrome and Commanding Curve at Belmont

Medal Count‟s next chapter could have taken drastic plot twists after the Derby His late-spring rush job to make the big dance on points saw him run twice in an 8-day span at Keeneland and his Kentucky Derby pursuit upped his log to 27-12 furlongs of action in a 29-day interval Trainer Dale Romans champion conditioner in America just 2 seasons ago did the prudent thing by skipping the Preakness He worked Medal Count an easy half-mile on Preakness Day and then put him to the morning test a week later Medal Count responded with a 5-furlong bullet in 59-25 breezing a similar work before his breakout performance in the Transylvania in early April

Medal Count has that Dynaformer blood I love in these distance races and appears to be really coming to hand at the right time If he had finished third in the Derby you‟d be looking at the second or third choice in the wagering for the Belmont Now you‟re likely to get much closer to the 26-1 he offered on the first Saturday in May Robby Albarado has an aggressive route sense of pace and I project he‟ll keep him closer than expected

CALIFORNIA CHROME Nothing in horse racing rates as fact But the overriding factual suspicion here is that none of the 2014 Belmont Stakes contenders beats California Chrome unless the favorite aids the process In other words He must regress some to be beaten by any of these horses

California Chrome has posted the 4 best races in America this year by any 3-year-old colt a complete sweep in our weekly Countdown evaluations Those 4 races have not come in nickel-dimers but rather the San Felipe-Santa Anita Derby-Kentucky Derby-Preakness If that doesn‟t sound like a big deal note that quartet has been swept only twice in historyhellipby Affirmed and Sunday Silence If he splits the difference between those all-time dynamos in the final jewel the others will have a diminishing view of the backside of history

At some point fatigue will catch up with California Chrome it‟s a rival you cannot outrun forever He‟s worked or raced every 2 weeks since last spring without a break

But the Derby-Preakness champ drilled like a total pro over Big Sandy last weekend (workout video link) and gives no impression the

41

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 37: Hpn mag june 2014

surface will be any concern much less that his needle is straddling bdquoE‟ Look for Victor Espinoza the fifth jockey in history to have multiple bids to sweep a Triple Crown to employ the utmost patience Visions of Stewart Elliott forcing Smarty Jones through too-wicked interior splits won‟t be lost on Espinoza Even if Chrome goes straight to the front ndash which is conceivable ndash expect the horse to come back to the hands of the rider and find a rhythmic tempo It‟s simply bdquowhat he do‟ as the kids say these days The misstated ldquolongrdquo Belmont stretch will have nothing to do with the outcome In reality it‟s the shortest of all 3 Triple Crown race runs from the top of the stretch to the wire This race will be won or lost on the turns and that X-factor is something you cannot simulate In the US horses run on their left lead on the turns and right lead on straight-aways In no race in their lifetime will they ever spend more time on their left lead ndash if they are swapping leads correctly ndash than the Belmont Stakes Two turns around the massive sweeps provide a unique physical challenge that so few observers even realize or mention Which horse California

Chrome or otherwise can exhibit their best effort while racing so long on their left lead Looking at a track diagram of Belmont the horses will run about 6 furlongs ndash about half the race ndash on the turns Compare that to about 8-9 of the Derby‟s 12 furlongs on the straight and utilization of the right lead This is why the Belmont is won or lost on the turn ndash not some emotional vision of blowing races open and discouraging rivals And it‟s also why horseplayers taking odds-on in the Belmont can be in such a tenuous position from a mechanics standpoint It‟s the great unknown with all involved regardless of price And it has proven a prime time to shop with 7 straight odds-on chalks defeated

Jeremy Plonkrsquos 2014 Belmont Selections

WIN MEDAL COUNT

PLACE CALIFORNIA CHROME SHOW WICKED STRONG

For Jeremyrsquos wagering

strategies see Saturdayrsquos HP NOW BUZZ

42

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 38: Hpn mag june 2014

BRISNET ANGLES FOR BELMONT PARK

By Ed DeRosa

Because the racing is so great at Belmont

throughout the year we have a good

sample size of quality races to dissect

Looking at allowance and stakes races only

from 2013-2014 for three-year-olds and up

we have 94 dirt sprints 74 dirt routes 41

turf sprints and 57 turf routes in our

database

Looking at all 266 of these higher-class

races doesnrsquot yield many surprises

Brisnetcomrsquos top Prime Power figure has an

Impact Value of 222 and outperforms the

takeout with an ROI of just -75 Breaking

the races out by distance and surface helps

more though

When it comes to talking

great racing in New

York Belmont Park is

generally overshadowed

by its Upstate cousin in

the New York Racing

Association family

Saratoga Race Course

but it is absolutely some

of the best day-in-day-

out racing the country

has to offer with none

better than the Belmont

Stakes card on June 7

Wersquoll discuss some of

that daily racing later

but with nearly $3-

million in guaranteed

multi-race wagering

pools and more than

$100-million in handle

expected on the day we

want to make sure

yoursquore ready and ALL-

WAYS software from

Brisnetcom can help

44

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 39: Hpn mag june 2014

In dirt sprints at these levels (we

define sprint as any distance up

tomdashbut not includingmdash1 mile) the

top last-out Brisnetcom Speed

Rating is a huge factor with an

Impact Value of 236 and an ROI

of +13 Prime Power is especially

effective with these variables as

well with the top figure netting a

273 Impact Value and a +29

ROI

Dirt routes are

trickier as the

best last-out

Speed Rating

does OK from a

predictive

standpoint with a

170 Impact

Value but the

ROI is -39

However

expanding your handicapping to

the horse with the two best Speed

Ratings from its last three starts

ups the Impact Value slightly to

172 and nets a +5 ROI

Turf sprints rely less on speed and

more on surface performance The

best last-out Speed Rating has an

OK Impact Value of 153 but the

ROI is -36 However looking at

the best recent performance ON

TURF has an impact value of 170

and ROI of +4

Turf routes are similar with the

best last-out Speed Rating having

an Impact Value of 139 and

straight bet ROI of -48 Zeroing

in on recent turf success though

has an Impact Value of 164 and a

+2 ROI

This seems to

support somewhat

the clicheacute that

speed figures

matter less on turf

I wouldnrsquot go so far

as to say they donrsquot

matter but theyrsquore

clearly overvalued

Look for strong turf

form when playing turf races at

Belmont

Looking at the last 13 fast-track

Belmont Stakes specifically itrsquos

easy to see the role pace plays in

the race because the most

powerful indicators of success are

the E1 Pace Rating and the

relationship between a horsersquos

typical E1 pace rating and its final-

This seems to

support some-

what the clicheacute

that speed figures

matter less on

turf

45

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 40: Hpn mag june 2014

fraction rating (this is a calculation

the ALL-WAYS software performs

and is not available in standard

Past Performances)

Ie one strong move isnrsquot usually

good enough to win the Belmont

Stakes but rather a sustained run

from the gate carried

all 12 furlongs is

preferred

When playing

Belmont generally

last-out speed is still

very much king in dirt

sprints and less so in

routes but still

strong

The turf races donrsquot

favor turf form as

much overall but this

makes sense ndash because among all

races yoursquore more likely to get

horses trying turf for the first time

or coming from an Aqueduct

meeting with less turf (whereas the

allowance and especially stakes

types typically are more proven

over turf)

All these good horses start

somewhere and Belmont has its

share of loaded maiden racesmdash

even if that

aforementioned

cousin Upstate gets

most of the

attention with its

two-year-old racing

In looking at maiden

races with first-time

starters in them the

horsemen

associated with

starters is a bigger

angle in these types

of races than any other Ie

jockey and trainer matter more in

maiden races at Belmont than any

other classmdashand even more so on

turf ndash HPN

hellipone strongmove isnrsquot usually good enough to win the Belmont Stakes but rather a sustained runhellip

46

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 41: Hpn mag june 2014

Cat Manzi Cool Name ndash Hall of Fame Career

By Ken Warkentin

If you were to build the ultimate catch driver you would need a pair of Hall of Fame hands along with tremendous horse sense a gift of timing and a fierce work ethic

Donrsquot forget steely determination resiliency and professionalism

Oh and give him a cool name the coolest ever call him Cat Manzi

Known to his generations of fans as The Cat Man Manzi retired in 2014 after more than 40 years as a one of harness racingrsquos top catch drivers piling up drives wins money accolades and building a legacy of respect as a hard-working athlete a gentleman and a family man

Cat is the man you can still count on ndash on and off the track

The 2002 Hall of Fame inductee enjoyed a resurgence in his career and enjoyed his best season in 2005 at age 55 when he was Driver of the Year and won the sportrsquos dash title with 727 wins

Manzi is third on the all-time list with almost

15000 wins hersquos the fifth leading money winner in history at $158 million among the all-time leaders at the Meadowlands and no driver or Thoroughbred jockey has competed in more races ndash 91345

Manzirsquos best money season was $865 million in 2005 and one of his biggest paychecks came in the $700000 William Haughton Memorial when Dr No rallied off a perfect second-over trip to pull a 7-1 upset in 1501 With his uncanny ability to quickly adapt to

48

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 42: Hpn mag june 2014

a new horse Manzi won his first four starts with the son of No Nukes and put a mark on him of 1482

Later in that Summer of 2005 Manzi lit up the board on Hambletonian Day with 12-1 upsetter Helluva Hush in the $300000 Nat Ray the millionaire son of Lindy Lane capitalized on a perfect two-hole trip and earned a mark of 151

Manzi had a second and a third in nine Hambletonian Finals and he scored his lone win in the $1 million Meadowlands Pace in 2006 with a horse he had been reunited with Artistic Fella got red hot at the right time dominated the Big Mrsquos signature event in 1484 and gave The Cat Man a long-awaited Pace trophy

Cat said he will always remember his first million-dollar win in the 2004 North America Cup at Woodbine when he rallied 26-1 longshot Mantacular in 1512 Manzi and the son of Western Hanover scored an emotional victory for his good friend trainer Larry Rathbone

Cat Manzi followed and stood out among numerous family members into the business and the native of

Monticello NY earned titles at Monticello Liberty Bell Garden State Park and Freehold

The modest Manzi considers himself fortunate to drive in so many races win major stakes and drive horses like the incomparable Artsplace Dan Patch Award winner Winkyrsquos Goal millionaires Harmonious and Pacific Fella and world champion Beat The Wheel But it was just as special for Manzi to help a friend get a young horse or a longshot to the winnerrsquos circle

Manzi has always taken pride in keeping himself in shape which has certainly helped him survive more than his share of bumps in the road He has also thrived in something he loved to do day-after-day and night-after-night He painted a masterpiece career and the Manzi memories will last for generations to follow

The other night at the Big M his familiar light blue colors were seen going by while warming up a horse for his new employer brothers John and Tom Cancelliere who have a state of the art training facility in Chesterfield NJ Itrsquos only a matter a time before Cat and the Cancellieres produce champions together We salute The Cat Man ndash HPN

49

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 43: Hpn mag june 2014

Join Horse Player NOWrsquos Tom

Kelley and Brian Nadeau Saturday

June 14 at Mohawk Raceway as

they host a Night School Tour fan

education experience during the

prestigious Pepsi North America

Cup Card Canadarsquos richest day of

harness racing all year

Both will lend their extensive

knowledge throughout the day to

help fans learn the nuances of the

game formulate wagering

strategies as well as give how-to

seminars ranging from how to read

past performance lines to

understanding how a race may

unfold

The featured 31st North America

Cup with a purse of $1 million

will bring together the best 3-year-

old pacers in North America and

rates as one of harness racingrsquos

premier events while highlighting

a stakes-filled card that will be

long on depth and talent

Several of North Americarsquos top

3-year-old pacers are scheduled

to compete including early North

America Cup favorite Hes

Watching who won a division of

the Somebeachsomewhere Stakes

May 31 at Mohawk to move his

lifetime record to 9-for-10

-more-

50

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 44: Hpn mag june 2014

JK Endofanera and Always B

Miki won the other two

divisions and also rate major

contenders Doo Wop

Hanover and Western

Vintage (pictured right) the

1-2 finishers in the New

Jersey Sire Stakes May 31 at

Meadowlands are also

expected to compete as well

as All Bets Off who won the Art Rooney the same night at the

Meadowlands All told 10 will start

with the final field to be

determined by the eliminations to

be held at Mohawk June 7

The North America Cup is one of

several lucrative stakes on the

card which will draw some of the

top drivers in the sport to Mohawk

including the likes of Brian Sears

Corey Callahan John Campbell and

Tim Tetrick among others

The $400000 Fan Hanover the

sister race to the North America

Cup will pit the best 3-year-old filly

pacers around while the $250000

Roses are Red will bring together

some of the best filly and mare

pacers while the $225000

Goodtimes will feature the 3-year-

old trotters in action

Kelley and Nadeau will be on hand

from 4 pm until the end of the

Mohawk card to continue a

successful run of fan education

events on the Night School Tour

that have included stops at the

Preakness Belmont Hambletonian Queens Plate and Breedersrsquo Cup

et al in recent seasons

CLICK FOR PREVIEW

51

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 45: Hpn mag june 2014

Whorsquos Your

Daddy By Jennifer K Hancock

As a member of the Racing Aces

handicapping team Irsquom asked to

travel around the country sharing

handicapping techniques and

advice at seminars Prior to

traveling to a track Irsquoll handicap

the card for the day of races and

nothing makes my heart sink like

seeing a maiden claiming race filled

with first-time starters While Irsquom

tempted to turn the page to the

next race I instead turn to one of

my favorite pieces of information ndash

pedigrees

When is the last time you walked

up to a slot machine at a casino

and had it give you insight into its

past performances pedigree and

other vital information about how it

might perform before you place

your bet Betting on horses gives

us the opportunity to do detective

work and reap big rewards

While there always are exceptions

to every rule ndash modestly bred

California Chromersquos destruction of

the Kentucky Derby and Preakness

fields against some blue-bloods

comes to mind ndash handicapping is

about improving your odds by

analyzing information

When looking at a field of first-time

starters I check out the trainer

jockey connections look at the

horsesrsquo recent works and then dig

into the pedigrees

If you are new to Quarter Horse

racing and donrsquot recognize

prominent names of the sires

where can you quickly find

52

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

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SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 46: Hpn mag june 2014

information to help you make some

intelligent choices

The American Quarter Horse

Association is the equivalent to the

Thoroughbred industryrsquos Jockey

Club AQHA keeps records for

every official Quarter Horse race as

well as registration records on all

American Quarter Horses The

American Quarter Horse

Association offers free information

at wwwaqharacingcom You donrsquot

need a password or sign-up to gain

access to long lists of data

Near the top of the AQHA Racing

home page is a button that says

ldquoleadersrdquo Clicking the link will give

you access to 20 free lists that are

updated regularly with the latest

racing statistics

While you can usually track

Thoroughbred stud fees as a

measure ofa stallionrsquos success

many American Quarter Horse

stallions are syndicated when they

head to the breeding farm and

their stud fees are traded through

private treaties with the

syndication members Therefore

itrsquos harder to gauge a Quarter

Horsersquos public demand based off of

the highest stud fees

Researching the leading stallions

lists will help you pick out top

performing stallions and hopefully

you will be able to catch a stallionrsquos

prodigy before the other bettors

become wise to his runners You

can even research past years to

look for trends

As of May 19 PYC Paint Your

Wagon is the leading sire of 2-

year-old winners The 11-year-old

stallion has 22 winning 2-year-olds

in 2014 from 97 starts His 2012

foal crop had 179 foals Last year

PYC Paint Your Wagon ended the

year on top of the list too In

2013 the stallion had 46 winners

from 104 starts

As with any statistics digging

deeper can alert you to other

potential nuggets of useful

information

In 2013 freshman sire Foose

landed at the No 2 spot on the

leading sire of 2-year-old winners

list He had 45 winning 2-year-olds

one less than PYC Paint Your

Wagon but Foosersquos 2011 foal crop

53

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 47: Hpn mag june 2014

had 50 less foals compared to PYC

Paint Your Wagon Foosersquos starters

had 70 wins from 75 starts A wise

handicapper that picked up early

on this hot freshman sirersquos runners

making their way to the starting

gate for the first time could cash in

at the window

Some tracks begin running 2-year-

olds earlier in the year such as

Louisiana Downsrsquo Mardi Gras

Futurity which had trials in

February By the end of May and

the opening of Ruidoso Downs 2-

year-olds are racing across the

country and most are setting their

sights on Quarter Horse racingrsquos All

American Futurity which is run on

Labor Day at Ruidoso Be aware of

the different racing calendars

because the leaders lists might

show an early bias to certain

regions and stallions Also keep an

eye on the freshmen sires because

a hotshot like Foose can pop up

and reward those that are paying

attention to the trends

AQHA breaks down the numbers in

several different ways You can see

leading sire information that

includes all of the sirersquos runners

and 2-year-old specific stats For

example you can see top stallions

for 2-year-old winners 2-year-old

money earners and 2-year-old

graded stakes winners Depending

on the type of race I am

handicapping I will look at the

different charts While

handicapping a maiden claiming

race Irsquom more interested in the

sirersquos total winners versus the sirersquos

ability with his runners in a stakes

race An example would be Stel

Corona who sired Old Girl the

winner of the May 18 Kindergarten

Futurity at Los Alamitos

Stel Corona is ranked 13th on the

2-year-old money earners list with

the boost of Old Girlrsquos $109704

Kindergarten payday but the

stallion is ranked 28th on the list of

2-year-old winners with four

winners from 15 starts

Utilizing the free information

available on Quarter Horse stallions

will hopefully have you sprinting to

the window to cash your winning

tickets

54

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 48: Hpn mag june 2014

The following are examples of the statistical information available at

wwwaqharacingcom While it is logical that the stallions with the largest

foal crops would have a statistical advantage in having more winners (given

that they have more starters) taking a look at the percentage of winners

compared to the crop size can lead handicappers to stallions that have

higher percentages of winners although their total number of winners might

not land them at the top of the leader board

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old winners (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24

2 Ivory James 177 85 18

3 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16

4 Corona Cartel 91 50 14

5 Walk Thru Fire 122 55 13

Top AQHA Sires by 2-year-old earnings (as of May 20)

Rank Sire Crop Size Starts Winners Earnings

1 Pyc Paint Your Wagon 179 99 24 $1058763

2 Corona Cartel 91 50 14 $371526

3 Tempting Dash 71 31 10 $367215

4 Ivory James 177 85 18 $280304

5 Heza Fast Dash 97 54 16 $253449

Jennifer K Hancock is a member of the American Quarter Horse Associationrsquos Racing Aces

Fan Education team Her resume includes working as a racehorse groom the press box

coordinator at Sam Houston Race Park the editor of The American Quarter Horse Racing

Journal and currently as a freelance writer and marketer at her own Lone Oak Marketing

55

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 49: Hpn mag june 2014

RAINBOW 6 WAGERrsquoS INTEGRITY UPHELD

BY GULFSTREAM

By Brian W Spencer

orseplayers around the country spent the early part of Memorial Day weekend

crunching numbers watching replays and constructing tickets for Gulfstream Parks holiday Monday mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 The wager which requires thatbettors correctly select all six winners in the sequence while being the only winning ticket holder in order to take down the jackpot provision had not been hit by a unique ticket since Jan 10 and was rolling along with a carry-over pool of better than $6 million

The scheduled mandatory payout day was likely to attract a pool between $10-$20 million dollars but horseplayer Dan Borislow had

the good fortune to scoop the $66 million pool one day early after purchasing the only winning ticket hellipa day before the anticipatedldquoEverything Must Gordquo bonanza

Borislow covered a large number of the 142560 combinations in play that Sunday on a pair of tickets totaling more than $15000 Good luck also played in Borislows favor as more than 176 million individual combinations were played by the entirety of the pari-mutuel community that day and he survived a three-way photo finish in the payout leg Callana ($1280) won the finale by a nose and a head and neither the place nor show finisher would have allowed him to hold the only winning ticket

Much has been made about the size of Borislows ticket which is certainly out of the realm of possibility for all but the smallest percentage of horseplayers He bought nearly every race a tactic

H

56

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 50: Hpn mag june 2014

that helped contribute to his score when 4-5 favorites lost each of the first three legs The ticket that scored was less a display of handicapping acumen than it was a fortuitous swing on a day when many players may have been sitting out in advance of Mondays guaranteed payday

Despite the fact that such a play is simply not possible for a player like me credit should be given where credit is due as he picked his spot thought he may be able to take advantage of the situation before the mandatory payout had the bankroll for that kind of play and caught a handful of very lucky breaks along the way ndash and luck is one of the biggest aspects of playing jackpot-style wagers

The more interesting aspect of the conversations I read and participated in on Twitter and other various web forums was the question of why nobody else had simply gone in and purchased a ticket using ldquoALLrdquo in every race to ensure a carryover into Monday Such a play would have totaled $28512 Some wondered why a large player or large syndicate

would not have played such a ticket in hopes of taking advantage of the influx of money on Monday to hit the sequence multiple times

It does seem a little curious to me but the most intriguing suggestion came from those who wondered why Gulfstream Park itself (or more realistically by proxy) did not purchase a pair of tickets at that same cost to ensure the carryover and thus the rewards from takeout that would have come from

Mondays expected record pool

While there is no denying the real benefits that could have come to purse accounts by way of the takeout from such a

massive pool the thing I find most comforting about Borislows Sunday score was that it proved without a doubt that such stealth techniques were not being used by the host track I can only assume that a move like that would be illegal but if not it would have been incredibly unethical in the most favorable interpretation

Sundays payout proves that Gulfstream had no interest other than playing by the rules with their wager and massive jackpot wagers

hellipit provedwithout a doubt that such stealth techniques were

not being used by the host trackhellip

57

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 51: Hpn mag june 2014

such as the Rainbow 6 are offered at least partly to give everyday players a chance for a life-changing score While it is easy and perhaps even natural to grumble about the fact that this score came on a gigantic ticket played by a wealthy man imagine how different the scenario looks if we work through a thought experiment of a smaller-time player investing $200 in Sundays wager while Borislow had been content to sit it out

Imagine if this player had through some combination of handicapping skill and luck managed to get to the finale with a ticket live to Callana After a string of prices and beaten favorites this player would have seen will-pays that unfortunately suggested that there were two other tickets live to the same horse ensuring a carryover into Mondays card The payoff would have still been generous and we very likely would have never known that the track ensured a Monday carryover

This imaginary player in this fictitious scenario would have quite deservingly been in for the score of a lifetime ndash and been robbed of it ndash by the host property providing the

wager in the first place

What you dont know cant hurt you or so the saying goes right But in this case what we do know is what matters In a game where we are constantly calling for more transparency across the board and more integrity on the wagering side we do know that Gulfstream maintained the promise of the wager as it was sold to players

Wagers like the Rainbow 6 are devised for some combination of horse-players and dreamers Borislow and his $15000 ticket may not fit your

definition of a dreamer but if it hadnt been him it just as well could have been someone with a small bankroll and a big dream

Suggesting Gulfstream should have guaranteed the carryover plays to the most cynical side of our horseplaying mentality There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im not immune ndash but the fact that the wager paid out a day prior to the mandatory payoff plays to the very best side of our game when all parties play by the rules

This time it benefited Borislow Next time it might be you - HPN

There is a time and place for cynicism in this game ndash Im

not immune hellip

58

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

The best way to watch your

horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 52: Hpn mag june 2014

$100 SIGN-UP BONUS | NO WAGERING FEES | FREE BRISNET PPs

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horses runwhen yoursquore

on the go

New TwinSpirescom customers only $100 Promotion requires activating EZmoney which allows for electronic transfer of funds to and from your bank account See websitefor offer details Must be at least 18 (or 21 in certain jurisdictions) years of age Only available in states where legal Void where prohibited Always wager responsiblyNational Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700

SIGN UP TODAY wwwtwinspirescom or by calling 1-877-SPIRES-1

Where Players Win

Whether yoursquore a trainer owner breeder or just a fan of the sport TwinSpires Mobile is the best way to watch live horse racing when you canrsquot make it to the track Experience the thrill of the races in real-time on your mobile device Visit mtwinspirescom with your web-enabled smart phone or tablet to view live racing video and access real-time racing information program changes results and more Itrsquos the freedom to watch the best tracks across the country from anywhere wireless service is available Thatrsquos what you get with TwinSpires Mobile To sign up or fi nd out more visit TwinSpirescom or call 1-877-SPIRES-1

03114_0026_TWIN_8x10_4c_TSmobile_v2indd 1 52014 424 PM

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 53: Hpn mag june 2014

Horse Player NOW

takes you inside the past

performances ndash the GPS of

nearly every player ndash and

dissects a specific race for

what to look for within the

lines ndash and between them

We advance up the class ladder this

month from the maiden ranks to the

bottom end of the claiming ladder ndash the

ldquonon-winners of 2 lifetimerdquo condition By

definition these horses have only 1 win

lifetime at most and these races ndash when

offered for a low claiming tag ndash often

gather some ldquolifersrdquo in the condition as

they struggle to break through again and

find the right bunch

Occasionally yoursquoll find a N2L claimer in

which 1 or a few of the runners have

decidedly stronger maiden wins in terms

of class than the others When you do

give a long look at such runners Itrsquos all

about finding the easiest and right bunch

when competing at this lower level

Also consider fitness and horses deeper

into their form cycles When none of the

runners are particularly brilliant on talent

fitness can be what makes the difference

late in the race -- even among horses who

havenrsquot shown great desire to win

When horses drop in class from a higher

claiming category (open non-winners of 3

lifetime etc) you should consider it a

class drop even if the claiming price of the

previous race was lower than todayrsquos N2L

claiming price PPs courtesy BRIS chart

LINK courtesy Equibase

60

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 54: Hpn mag june 2014

62

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 55: Hpn mag june 2014

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

Point Given Photos By Z

JUNE 2014 4 Our Mims (Del) 3yo f 8F Sagamore Sired (Ind) 3yo 6F Swifty Sired (Ind) 3yo f 6F

5 Justakiss (Del) fm 85F

6 Bel Gold Cup (Bel) 4ampup 16F-T True North (Bel) 4ampup 6F Hawkeyes (PrM) fm 85F

7 Belmont Stakes (Bel) 3yo 12F Met Mile (Bel) 3ampup 8F Manhattan (Bel) 4ampup 10F-T Brooklyn (Bel) 4ampup 12F Just A Game (Bel) fm 8F-T Phipps (Bel) fm 85F Acorn (Bel) 3yo f 8F

Stephens (Bel) 3yo 7F Easy Goer (Bel) 3yo 85F Jaipur (Bel) 4ampup 6F-T Affirmed (SA) 3yo 85F Mint Julep (CD) fm 85F-T Lady Angela (WO) 3yo f 7F Crank It Up (Mth) 3yo f 55F-T Jostle (Prx) 3yo f 65F Purple Violet (AP) 3yo f 8F Brooks Fields (Cby) 3ampup 75F-T Minnesota HPBA (Cby) fm 75F-T Cyclones (PrM) 3ampup 85F Mackey Memorial (Tdn) fm 6F Emerald Downs (Hst) 3y f 65F River Rock Casino (Hst) 3yo 65F

8 Crystal Water (SA) 4ampup 8F-T Steady Growth (WO) 3ampup 85F Intercontinental (Bel) fm 7F-T Silky Sullivan (GG) 3yo 8F Campanile (GG) 3yo f 8F WA Legislators (Emd) fm 65F Vancouver Sun (Hst) fm 85F Sir Winston Crsquohill (Hst) 3ampup 85F Monmouth (Mth) 3ampup 9F-T McSorley (Mth) 3ampup 55F-T Satin and Lace (PID) fm 55F

9 Boyles Memorial (PID) 3ampup 55F

12 Dashing Beauty (Del) fm 6F

64

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 56: Hpn mag june 2014

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

14 Stephen Foster (CD) 3ampup 9F Fleur de Lis (CD) fm 9F Matt Winn (CD) 3yo 85F Regret (CD) 3yo f 9F-T Shoemaker Mile (SA) 3ampup 8F-T Vanity (SA) fm 9F Bold Ruckus (WO) 3yo 6F Trillium (WO) fm 85F-T English Channel (GP) 3yo 85F-T Starfish Bay (GP) 3yo f 85F-T Obeah (Del) fm 9F Isaac Murphy (AP) 3ampup 6F Astoria (Bel) 2yo f 55F Little Silver (Mth) 3yo f 8F-T Nancyrsquos Glitter (Crc) fm 8F Albany (GG) 3ampup 5F-T Fancy Buckles (CT) fm 45F Danzig (Pen) 3yo 6F New Star (Pen) 3yo f 6F Scholarship (LS) fm 75F-T

15 Woodbine Oaks (WO) 3yo f 9F Plate Trial (WO) 3yo 9F Alywow (WO) 3yo f 65F Pegasus (Mth) 3yo 85F Dan Horn (Mth) 3ampup 8F-T Desert Stormer (SA) fm 6F Tremont (Bel) 2yo 55F Budweiser (Emd) 3ampup 8F Gendelman (BTP) 3ampup 85F Dark Star Cup (Cby) 3ampup 65F Northbound Pride (Cby) 3yo f 8F

18 Centaur (Ind) 3yo 8F-T BoysGirls Club (Ind) 4ampup 85F Hockessin (Del) 4ampup 6F

21 Evd Turf Sprint (Evd) 3ampup 5F-T Evangeline Mile (Evd) 3ampup 8F Acadiana (Evd) 3yo f 7F Lafayette (Evd) 3yo 7F Opelousas (Evd) fm 85F Srsquotime Oaks (SA) 3yo f 85F-T Singletary (SA) 3yo 8F-T Eatontown (Mth) fm 85F-T Bed orsquo Roses (Bel) fm 7F Wild Applause (Bel) 3yo f 8F-T Debutante (CD) 2yo f 6F Hildarsquos Passion (GP) 3yo f 8F Black Tie Affair (AP) 3ampup 85F Victoria (WO) 2yo 5F Oak Tree (Pln) 3ampup 9F-T LeVine Memorial (Prx) 3ampup 7F Rise Jim (Suf) 3ampup 6F

22 King Edward (WO) 3ampup 8F-T Victoria Park (WO) 3yo 9F Landaluce (SA) 2yo f 55F SA Juvenile (SA) 2yo 55F Pleasanton Oaks (Pln) 3yo f 6F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo f 7F NY Stallion Stakes (Bel) 3yo 7F Red Cross (Mth) fm 6F Coca-Cola (Emd) 3yo 8F Windward (PID) fm 8F

65

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 57: Hpn mag june 2014

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

25 Shelby County (Ind) fm 6F Harrison (Ind) 3ampup 6F

26 Stanton (Del) 3yo 85F-T

27 Iowa Distaff (PrM) fm 85F Iowa Sprint (PrM) 3ampup 6F Saylorville (PrM) fm 6F

28 SA Gold Cup (SA) 3ampup 10F Triple Bend (SA) 3ampup 7F Royal Heroine (SA) fm 8F-T Senorita (SA) 3yo f 8F-T Mother Goose (Bel) 3yo f 85F New York (Bel) fm 10F-T Manila (Bel) 3yo 8F-T Iowa Derby (PrM) 3yo 85F Iowa Oaks (PrM) 3yo f 85F Cornhusker (PrM) 3ampup 9F Chicago (AP) fm 7F Firecracker (CD) 3ampup 8F-T Bashford Manor (CD) 2yo 6F Quality Road (GP) 3yo 85F Lighthouse (Mth) fm 85F-T My Dear (WO) 2yo f 5F Oak Tree Distaff (Pln) fm 6F Isadorable (Suf) fm 6F

29 San Juan Caprsquono (SA) 3ampup 14F-T Victory Ride (Bel) 3yo f 65F Mr Prospector (Mth) 3ampup 6F Petro (Tdn) fm 85F Irish Day (Emd) 3yo f 8F

Read Jeremy Plonkrsquos Countdown to the Crown every Friday ndash all the way through the Queenrsquos Plate on

July 6 this year Unmatched coverage for the US and Canadian

Triple Crown pursuits Countdowntothecrowncom

SPECIAL HP NOW FREE JUNE WAGERING

GUIDES ON THE HORIZON

June 15 ndash Woodbine Oaks

June 21 ndash Evangeline Turf Sprint

66

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 58: Hpn mag june 2014

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

June 3 ndash Online Night School June 4 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 7 ndash Belmont Stakes Day June 7 ndash Pimlico closes June 8 ndash Ruidoso Futurity Day June 10 ndash Online Night School June 11 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 14 ndash Night School Tour at Mohawkrsquos Pepsi North America Cup June 17 ndash Online Night School June 17 ndash Royal Ascot opens June 18 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 19 ndash Pleasanton opens June 21 ndash Royal Ascot closes June 21 ndash Wyoming Downs opens June 24 ndash Online Night SchoolJune 25 ndash Online Woodbine chat June 28 ndash TV NBCSN SA Gold Cup June 29 ndash Churchill Downs closes June 29 ndash Santa Anita closes July 1 ndash July HPN Mag release

Horse Player NOW hosts Brian Nadeau amp Tom Kelley

Live Teaching at Mohawk June 14

PLAY WITH OUR PROS

67

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 59: Hpn mag june 2014

Learn more about handicapping every Tuesday (830 pm ET) in Night School

KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE WOODBINE OAKS Restricted to Ontario-sired fillies keep an eye on open-company performers moving back in with their peer group The Oaks provides a beeline to the Sovereign Award as Canadarsquos champion 3YO filly historicallyndashand a major spring-board to the Queenrsquos Plate where the gals have had much success

MOST RECENT RENEWAL Nipissing who won all 4 Woodbine starts at age 2 and was runner-up in the Selene in her 3YO local return rallied to upend favorite Spring in the Air as the second wagering choice She would go on to run 8th in the Queenrsquos Plate vs the boys

CLICK FOR FREE PICKS

HANDICAPPERrsquoS AIDES Last 10 Winners ndash Full History rsquo13 Nipissing S Bahen Rachel Halden

rsquo12 Irish Mission A Solis Mark Frostad rsquo11 Inglorious L Contreras Josie Carroll

rsquo10 Roan Inish D Moran Carolyn Costigan

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal S Elliott Scott Fairlie rsquo08 Ginger Brew J Castellano Brian Lynch

rsquo07 Sealy Hill P Husbands Mark Casse rsquo06 Kimchi P Husbands Mark Casse

rsquo05 Gold Strike J McAleney Reade Baker rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx T Kabel Mark Frostad

Last 10 Winnersrsquo Preps rsquo13 Nipissing 2nd G3 Selene Stakes (WO) rsquo12 Irish Mission 1st maiden (Kee)

rsquo11 Inglorious 1st La Lorgnette (WO) rsquo10 Roan Inish 2nd Fury (WO)

rsquo09 Milwaukee Apeal 3rd La Lorgnette (WO)

rsquo08 Ginger Brew 1st Calder Oaks (Crc) rsquo07 Sealy Hill 12th G1 Kentucky Oaks (CD)

rsquo06 Kimchi 2nd allowance (WO) rsquo05 Gold Strike 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

rsquo04 Eye of the Sphynx 1st G3 Selene Stakes (WO)

Nipissing became the 4th locally prepped Woodbine Oaks winner in the last 5 years with her rsquo13 score

WOODBINE OAKS

June 15 2014

JUNE RACE OF THE MONTH

68

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 60: Hpn mag june 2014

When it comes to feel-good horses and the Triple Crown not even Smarty Jones could avoid the onslaught of negative media Unable to punch holes in his resume his trainer or his owner on oxygen the trash media instead turned to jockey Stewart Elliott

I call it the ldquoStewie Pool Cue Momentrdquo ndash when those with an axe to grind with horse racing can find nothing else to belabor In the shadow of the Belmont the Canadian-born rider was being threatened with deportation for a brawl he had many years prior in which he wielded a barstool and pool cue on a (former) friend A decade later Elliott‟s still here and Minnesota Fats remains the most famous man in sports to chalk a poolstick So much for that ldquostoryrdquo actually being a story

It seems controversy follows Triple Crown pursuers whether it‟s fair or way foul ldquoBignessrdquo

gets to the media which must find a means to tear down its self-created heroes

Big Brown had his shopping list of unsavories as did I‟ll Have Another and even Affirmed Prince Ahmed bin Salman of War Emblem bdquofame‟ didn‟t bother showing for the Belmont much like his horse ndash and soon after died of a reported heart attack that 9-11 conspiracy theorists still question

The fact that we‟ve come this close to the Belmont and the biggest controversies tied to California Chrome are nasal bands and a passing opossum on the track says something good about the hands we might be leaving our most historic trophy That alone makes you want to root for California Chrome and worry about the heroic beat-down later

69

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK

Page 61: Hpn mag june 2014

SAY THANKS THIS PUBLICATION FREE BECAUSE OF THESE FINE SPONSORS

GIVE THEIR LOGOS A CLICK