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Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations

Horizon Scanning:

approaches, benefits and limitations

Harry Williams, Member Interest Groups Manager

Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations Horizon Scanning: approaches, benefits and limitations

• ‘Horizon Scanning’ term increasingly used in industry

• Independent study (BSc Food Manufacture)

• MIG members surveyed & interviewed

• Jan 2016 – May 2017

Background


1. What is horizon scanning and why bother?

2. How is it being applied within the food industry?

3. What are the business impacts of horizon scanning?

Key questions – The Ronseal Test


Why bother?


• Historic cases: Sudan dyes, Melamine, Horsemeat

• TACCP/VACCP

• Elliot review – key recommendation

• BRC Global standards

Why bother?


“The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities

and likely future developments which are at the margins of current

thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and

unexpected issues as well as persistent problems and trends”

(Defra, 2002)

What is horizon scanning?

Define scope Information Data

collection Interpretation

Decision making

Guideline No. 65 (Emond, Keenan and Pelletier, 2011)




a) Identify the ‘issues’ companies are ‘scanning’ for

b) Document tools and approaches used




Delphi

stage

Strategy Aim Sample Type of questions Method of

analysis

1 Observation Trend analysis of

issues raised at

MIGs

500 ‘hot topics’

76 meetings

(2015-2016)

Direct

observation and

discussion

Content and key

words analysis

2 Quantitative

questionnaire

Quantify industry

perceptions of

horizon scanning

practices

1,957 Campden

BRI MIG

members

Closed/Likert

scale questions,

nominal data and

open questions

Descriptive

analysis (e.g.

graphical data)

3 Qualitative

semi-structured

interviews

Discuss benefits

and limitations of

horizon scanning

5-10 company

interviews

Semi-structured

questions and

anecdotal

evidence

Case studies

and examples

Project design – Delphi study


Issue identification

Research & Development

Legislation

Third parties

Media Internet

Own data

Hot topics

(MIGs)


Hot topics – Key term analysis

Key term

Top 10 key terms from all hot topics raised (2015-2016)

Issue category

manufacturing & processing

Regulations

Safety

Market trends

Supply chain integrity

Market trends

Sustainability

Safety

Market trends



No. of topics

(2015 - 2016)

29

23

19

18

17

17

14

13

11

11

10

reformulation

labelling

allergens

labour

authenticity

consumer

water

shelf-life

Brexit

TACCP

traceability


Issue categorisation – hot topics (no. of topics per category)


Manufacturing &

Processing

Regulations

Contaminants

Market

Trends

Packaging

Sustainability

Chemicals

Quality

Safety

Raw

materials

Micro

82 53 53 51 29

74 34 35

29 27

23 29


Issue prioritisation - by ranked importance (in relation to horizon scanning – member survey)

Regulations

Safety issues

Chemicals

Raw materials

4.4

4.3 4.0

4.3 3.3

29

4.0 4.0

161 responses (1 = Not important 5 = Very important)

Contaminants

4.3

Supply chain

integrity

4.3

Quality issues

4.0

Micro issues

4.0

Sustainability

Processing

Packaging

3.3

3.3

3.6

3.6 3.6

Market trends

3.6


Horizon scanning – areas of focus

Issue Examples

regulations • Legislation changes in acrylamide

• Labelling requirements

• Reformulation driven by legislation change

safety issues • Salmonella in Pistachios

• Aflatoxins in chilli

• Lead in turmeric

raw materials and ingredients • Crop failure issues switch in suppliers

• Traceability (illegal dyes, GMOs)

• Price changes

supply chain integrity • Decides which suppliers are awarded contracts

• Develop products to comply with audit standards

contaminants • Extension of testing programme

• Helps to define frequency of testing

• Identified chlorate/perchlorate as an emerging

contaminant issue 3-4 years prior to being known






3. What are the business impacts of horizon

scanning?



Approaches – level of engagement

79%

21%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Yes

No

Does your company perform horizon scanning activities?

288 responses, 15% population surveyed

42%

28%

19%

7%

4%

Greatest pressure to perform horizon scanning

Internally (e.g. strategic/board level)

Retail/customer

Standards bodies (e.g. BRC, ISO)

Government legislation & policy

Other (please describe)


Approaches – levels of engagement

5%

21%

29%

29%

16%

Reasons given for not performing horizon scanning

No time

Lack of resources

Not aware of it

Use other techniques

Not required


Approaches – Tools used

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Own company data

Scientific literature

Email/newsfeeds

Media (TV/radio/websites etc.)

Social media (blogs, mobile apps)

Networking events

Third party services

Non-governmental organisation

Other (please specify)

Based on 161 responses (71% of those who perform horizon scanning)


Approaches – by supply chain

Stage Sample

Performing horizon scanning Information & data Outputs

Yes No Responsibility Time frame Source(s) Collation Reporting Frequency

Primary

production &

raw materials

36 92% 8% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Email/Newsfeeds Manual Email Monthly

Supplier1 35 86% 14% Technical/food safety 12-24 months Own data

Third parties Manual Email Ad hoc basis

Processor /

manufacturer 134 80% 20% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Own data Manual Email Monthly

Distributor 18 78% 22% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Own data

Third parties Manual Email Ad hoc basis

Retail 33 82% 18% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Own data Manual Email Daily /

Monthly

Food service 27 78% 22% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Third parties Manual Email Monthly

Trader 12 100% 0% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Own data Manual Email Daily

Trade

association 3 100% 0% Legal & Regulatory 0-12 months

Email/newsfeeds

Networking Manual Email Ad hoc basis

Wholesaler 16 81% 19% Technical/food safety 0-12 months Third parties Manual Email Monthly/ ad

hoc basis

Research

association 3 100% 0% Technical/food safety 12-24 months No preference Manual

Email

Report Ad hoc basis







a) Benefits – where it works well

b) Limitations – challenges involved



• Raw material supply

• Preparing for regulatory changes

• Supporting ‘due diligence’ & risk assessments

• Commercial opportunities

Benefits – where it works well


Benefits – examples

Reformulation

“We were able to identify changes in consumer

attitudes towards sugar and potential introduction of taxes. We now have a

strategic plan in place across our entire product

range”

Beverage producer

Integrity

“Through our ‘eyes on the ground’ in our supply chain

we are able to identify ‘emerging issues’ and

review our test procedures to detect adulterated

products before entering the premises”

Condiments/Seasonings manufacturer

Raw materials

“Horizon scanning has helped to identify emerging

contamination of raw materials – often well ahead of FSA recall

announcements”

Food service operator


• Resource intensive – time is biggest limiting factor

• Databases/automated tools often ‘reactive’

• Interpretation – expertise & decision making

• Education & ‘buy in’

Limitations – challenges involved


Largely reactive

“Our horizon scanning is often a short-term exercise.

There is a danger of it being largely reactive. External information

sources identify issues that can already be 6 months in

their development”

Wholesaler

‘Educated guess’

“Issues appear out of the blue that can be difficult to

predict. At best horizon scanning is an educated

guess. The value of information depends on the expertise of those available

to share and interpret it”

Multinational Brewer

Time is precious

“Data is collated manually. Spreadsheets are

translated to written reports that are then discussed in

team meetings before deciding on whether any action should be taken”

Soft drinks manufacturer

Limitations - examples


Conclusions

• Food industry is well engaged – 80% openly ‘horizon scanning’

• Short-term - many companies do not look beyond 12 months

• Resource intensive –time, volume of data and interpretation

• Networks and third parties ‘most effective’ for ‘emerging issues’

• Scope for raising awareness and reviewing guidance


Looking ahead....

• Few companies can afford to ‘ignore’ it

• An increase in dedicated resources within companies

• Integration with ‘food safety culture’

• Scope for ‘opportunities’ - cost-benefit analysis


…horizon scanning

“You cannot escape

the responsibility of

tomorrow by

evading it today”

Abraham Lincoln

“It is always wise to

look ahead, but

difficult to look

further than you

can see”

Winston Churchill

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