joint horizon scanning

Joint horizon scanningVictor van Rij

Netherlands Horizon scan teamKnowledge Directorate

Ministry of Education, Culture and Science

Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):

Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making

16th- 17th October 2008

Identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge

Joint Horizon scanning



Joint Foresight

•ERA Net For-society, exchange of know how, ultimate goal joint foresight

•Investigation of barriers and advantages of joining foresight

•Search for similar foresight activities and willing partners

•Creative session of the Network --- horizon scanning most promising candidate for joining foresight activities

•Broad scope; Less problems with agenda (opportunity :HS activity in 3 countries more or less at the same time – many countries potentially interested)



Partners

•Horizon Scanning Centre UK / GOS

•Netherlands Horizon Scan COS / Ministry of Education, Culture and Science

•Danish Horizon Scan / OECD-Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovation (DASTI)

•Maltese Council for Science and Technology (MCST)

•PREST

__________________•Many interested institutions



Objectives of the Pilot

•exchange experiences and know-how on horizon scanning at the national level;

•compare working methods and methodologies used by the different horizon scans and formulate recommendations for improvement;

•compare basic data (lists of issues and issue descriptions) from the horizon scans of the UK, Netherlands and Denmark;

•develop a model for continuous data sharing and comparison;

•formulate recommendations for the development of international cooperation in horizon scanning, including how it can be used.



Schedule of the Pilot

• Brainstorm with partners and interested institutions (March 19 th 2007)

• Interviews with scan coordinators, representatives several DG’s EC and interested institutions

• Development joint scan base and input data

• Pilot partner meeting October 2007

• Report to the For society Network November 2007


Joint Horizon scanning results

Working Methods of the different scans

•Different purposes (RD agenda – Public policy)

•Phases and a systematic approach

•Data gathering and selection / using implicit or explicit values /as far as we can see , imagine/ categories

•Literature study complemented by expert panels/interviews

•Synthesis/analysis - clusters/scenario’s using creative group thinking

•Use: Demand driven and supply approach



Working Methods of the different scans

•widen the scope for policy- and decision-makers

•provide the basis for resilient (cross-departmental) policies

•alert policy-makers to forgotten and emerging (new) risks and opportunities

•point out uncertainties, challenge dominant, implicit assumptions about the future

•stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different levels

•identify new challenging issues for policy, research, development and innovation; •identify knowledge gaps

•identify possible inter linkages (enhancers, inhibitors, multipliers) between future issues

•identify new trans-disciplinary and policy domain crossing sets of issues

•deliver input to research and innovation, policy, public debate, and departmental policies,

•deliver information that can be used for priority-setting for future investments.

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4. Evaluation and

Weighing of problems andopportunities

List P

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Lijst O

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5. Coupling of opportunitiesand problems through creativesessions and consultations

3. IdentificationProblems and opportunities

10. Report withRecommendations for

-Knowledge and strategicagenda

1. Literature Study

2. Consultation ofnational

International experts

6. Formation of Clustersand connections

domains + disciplines

7. Cluster descriptions

9. Knowledge and strategicQuestions per cluster

8. Essays per cluster

354 6

9

10

12

8

7

Website

R&D agenda

Policy agenda

Netherlands horizon scanning in a nutshell

Sigma Scan development

Activity Engagements Output

Scan the scans

Categorisedata

Create the E-database

Society & Public Policy High Impact

Issues

Further communication

events

New material

Issue analysis and synthesis

Workshop

Cross-linkages With policy

Themed Scenarios

ExtranetPeer reviewDiscussiongroups

Updateddatabase

Finalised Themed Scenarios

Final database

Reports andmultimedia output

Data AnalysisPhase

ReviewPhase

DeliveryPhase

ResearchPhase

OSTHorizon Scanning Centre

United Kingdom horizon scanning in a nutshell

OECD-DASTI Horizon scan

Opportunities/solutions :Opportunities/solutions : Threats/problems from:Threats/problems from:

And Ecology,And Ecology,

EcosystemEcosystem

BiodiversityBiodiversity

Human:Human:

Survival , HealthSurvival , Health

Welfare, wealthWelfare, wealthWellbeingWellbeing

Democracy, lawDemocracy, law

Self-realizationSelf-realization

Culture, ethicsCulture, ethics

Physical environmentPhysical environment

Natural resources from Natural resources from

(Outer) Space(Outer) Space

SpaceSpace

Sea and watersSea and waters

Earth and soilEarth and soil

Atmosphere Climate Atmosphere Climate

Living worldLiving world

Physical environmentPhysical environment

Shortage/destruction/Shortage/destruction/

(Outer) Space(Outer) Space

SpaceSpace

Sea and waters Sea and waters

Earth and soilEarth and soil

Atmosphere climateAtmosphere climate

Living worldLiving world

Human action/brainpowerHuman action/brainpower

Science & TechnologyScience & Technology

EducationEducation

Social systemSocial system

Political, Government, legal, Political, Government, legal,

economy, financeeconomy, finance

Other Systems Other Systems (infrastructures, production, (infrastructures, production,

transport, ICT, energy, transport, ICT, energy, industry, healthcare, industry, healthcare,

agriculture)agriculture)

Human action/environmentHuman action/environment

Science, technologyScience, technology

Education Education

Social systemSocial system

Political, Government, legalPolitical, Government, legal

Economy, financeEconomy, finance

Systems (infrastructures, Systems (infrastructures, production, transport, ICT, production, transport, ICT,

energy, industry, health care, energy, industry, health care, agriculture)agriculture)

COMMONCOMMON

LONG TERMLONG TERM

DESIRESDESIRES

& VALUES& VALUES

With expected With expected large impact onlarge impact on

society:society:


Joint Horizon scanning conclusions

Explicit values Netherlands Horizonscan

• Biological dimension : Quality of life, Ecological Quality

• Social dimension : Social Quality

• Economic financial dimension: Economic Quality

• Governmental dimension : Juridical and Democratic Quality

• Cultural, ethical and intellectual dimension : Cultural, ethical and intellectual Quality

• Self realization of (future) citizens, freedom of individuals and of religious and cultural expression

• Good neighborhood dimension : International relationship Quality



Joining data and comparison of contents

Comparison categories:

•Scans are using almost similar main categories

Joining the data:

•Using the Sigma scan database

Comparisons issues:

•Contents of the scans are strongly overlapping but also contain unique issues, some issues are not present in 1 of the three scans

•Scans can therefore be considered as complementary



Joining data and comparison of contentsategories

Netherlands United Kingdom Denmark

•Social context•Society Incl. Public services

•Culture•Work life•People

•R&D and education • Science &Technology •Development

•Economical context/ Finance • Economics •Economy

•Physical environment •Environment•Nature •Resources

•Political, administrative and legal•Public services

• Politics•State•Global

UK categories

A

B 146 issues

C

DK headings

I

II 125 issues

III

NL domains

a

b 159 issues

c

Combined categories

A a I

B b II total: approx

C c III 430 issues



Joining data and comparison of contents

Distribution of the selected issues over the main categories

Category United Kingdom Denmark Netherlands total

Society 18,5 22,4 7,5 15,6

Science & technology 16,4 8,8 15,1 13,7

Economy/Finance 21,2 21,6 18,9 20,5

Environment/Ecology 13,7 15,2 23,3 17,7

Politics/Public services 30,1 32,0 35,2 32,6

total number of issues 146 125 159 430



Positioning , role and impact

•Central positioning (UK, Netherlands, Denmark)

•Different assignments (cross departmental policies, R,D & I agenda setting)

•Informing and stimulating other departments and levels of governance and society (UK )

•Impact on R&D strategic agenda (Denmark, Netherlands)

•Sometimes the value of the scan is still underestimated, despite of the central position



Conclusions regarding the common database

•It is feasible to join the data for comparable analysis provided that we discuss and agree on common coordinates

•Joining enriches the data and lends itself for the formulation of in-depth scans but also for identification of emerging common challenges

•Issues have been selected according to implicit /explicit value sets which differ per country. It is important to make the selection of issues transparent (especially if this is outsourced)

•The UK sigma scan database could with some adaptation be used to join the input from different countries



Recommendations joint horizon scanning

•Enriching in depth , connecting with more detailed scans of domains or issues, the role of scientific contributions

•Expansion in width, introducing scans from other angles, using more (new) participatory approaches to collect data (through Weblogs, wiki-like constructions etc) other countries but also OECD,ESF, IPTS etc

•Incorporating and connecting to different Users on the EC level

•Developing instruments for impact measurement /improvement(Lead question: we know there is always impact , but is it effective? Do we reach the real decision makers? Does it hits the right targets? Do we increase the speed of reaction to future threats and opportunities??? Do we create more sustainable and resilient Policies by using HS?)



Recommendations joint horizon scanning

Further cooperation could be directed to further development of horizon scanning with focus on the following common aspects:

•Recognition and filtering of weak signals (for instance with the help of web-bots)

•Dealing with complexity envisioning long term common challenges on basis of the combined scans

•Widening stakeholder and HL decision makers involvement

•Overcome the dilemma of present day agenda vs long term strategy (time for the future) , using boundary knowledge

joint horizon scanning

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