horeca-report of ksa
TRANSCRIPT
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2011HORECA
KSAwww.saudihoreca.com
Saudi Food, Beverages
and Hospitality MarketAnalysisSigns of stabilization & recoverywith high levels of investor interestand activity.
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www.saudihoreca.com
2011HORECA
KSAwww.saudihoreca.com
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SAUDI HORECA 2011RiyadhInternationalConvention&ExhibitionCenter 0202 SAUDI HORECA 2011RiyadhInternationalConvention&ExhibitionCenter
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Consumers
The size of the population ensures that the market makes a distinction among the gulf regionmarkets which portend especially well on long-term carry in household expenditure growth.While income increases, there will be more spending on fast-moving consumer goods(FMCGs), that will boost per capita food consumption & mass grocery retail sales. In addition,the increases of income demand for high-value luxury goods as Saudi consumers are verybrand conscious.
Industry Data Highlight2010 per capita food consumption = +1.48%; forecast to 2015 = +52.94%2010 soft drink value sales = +2.03%; forecast to 2015 = +41.12%2010 mass grocery retail sales = +6.77%; forecast to 2015 = +82.7%
Remarkable Notes in Saudi Food Industry
Appealing market for investors due to size of youthful population being over 25 millionprogressively more attracted to western trends, therefore the long-term volume growth isvery promising.Towering consumption of high-value packaged and processed foods on account of the enor-mous expatriate population existence in Saudi Arabia.Saudi Arabia is the largest dairy industry.Comparing to neighboring countries, Saudi Arabia gives a lower cost export base for the fact
that the country is a member of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC).As the Saudi lifestyles becomes busier along with tastes and preferences development, thedemand for processed and packaged goods is meant to carry on more increasingly in the Saudi market.
Organic foods are progressively increasing.Health awareness has notably increased opportunities for companies that are able toproduce healthy & light food.
Remarkable Notes in Saudi Drink Industry
Soft drink consumption per capita is high, mainly for carbonate, bottled water and fruit juice.Though Saudi consumers are increasingly brand loyal yet they are interested in new andoriginal products.Saudi consumption for tea and coffee is very high as they consider both as part of tradition
and daily lifestyle.
A positive forecast is expecting the soft drinks industry to register promising value andvolume sales growth.Concerning production innovation the alternative teas, such as herbal and fruit tea, aretaking a place in the popularity products in Saudi Arabia, indicating indeed a strong growthopportunities for original and new products.
2015f
2014f
2013f
2012f
2011f
2010f
2009f
2008
2006
2005
2004
2007
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
ComingFromALower Base
GulfRegionPer CapitaGDP(US$)-2004-2005
Source:UNCTAD
UnitedArabEmirates
BahrainKuwait
OmanQatar
SaudiArabia
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000
1000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
02040608101214161820
2010f
FoodConsumption2005-2015
Percapitafood consumption(SAR)(LHS)Percapitafood consumptiongrowth(y-o-y)(RHS)
e/f=BMIestimate/forecast;na=not available/applicable.source:MinisrtyofEconomyandplanning, CentralDepartmentofStatisties,SaudiArabianMonetaryAgency,CompanyInformation,TradePress,BMI
SAUDI HORECA 2011RiyadhInternationalConvention&ExhibitionCenter 0402 SAUDI HORECA 2011RiyadhInternationalConvention&ExhibitionCenter
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Detailed Analysis for Food
Food Data Highlights
Headline food consumption forecast annual growth to 2015: 8.09%Per capita forecast food consumption annual growth to 2015: 5.91%
Keynotes Factors for New Market
25% of total private consumption in Saudi Arabia consisting of food expenditure.Motivated by the predictable economic and population growth, significant investment into
food processing particularly main segments such as dairy, is anticipated to grow by 2015, inUS$ terms, per capita food consumption to grow past US$2,000.Saudi Arabia is the only market in the gulf region which can pragmatically and realisticallypresents investors with long-term volume growth potential especially with an expectedgrowth of population to reach 28 million by 2015.The food market is much less contingent on catching the attention of expatriates to upholdthe consumer base, comparing to UAE market where 80% of population is consisted of expa-triates, therefore the Saudi market carry less down risks to the population and headline foodconsumption growth figures.
Permeation of expansion of organized retail channels will also contribute to food consump-tion growth over the long term.Increased in organized retailing will carry on to reinforce internal trade systems, which willput in to lower expenditure & cost savings that can be passed on to consumers.
Table: Food Consumption Indicators 2006- 2015
2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f
23.38 28.30 31.03 36.17 37.67 41.10 44.53 48.09 52.58 57.62
87.54 106.00 116.21 135.44 141.09 159.94 166.75 180.09 196.90 215.79
987.2 1,171.7 1,259.1 1,142.5 1,449.6 1,550.1 1,646.4 1,744.3 1,871.7 2,0140.0
3.697 4.388 4.715 5.350 5.429 5.805 6.166 6.533 7.010 7,542
7.03 21.9 9.64 16.55 4.17 9.10 8.32 8.00 9.33 9.59
4.50 18.69 7.46 13.45 1.48 6.93 6.21 5.95 7.30 7.60
6.55 7.35 6.52 9.78 8.17 8.36 8.33 8.44 8.67
Food Consumption (US$bn)
Food Consumption (SARbn)
Per Capita Food Consumption (US$)
Per Capita Food Consumption (SAR)
Total Food Consumption Growth(y-o-y)
Per Capita Food Consumption Growth (y-o-y)
Food Consumption as % GDP
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast;na= notavailable/applicable.Source:MinistryofEconomyandPlanning,Central DepartmentofStatistics,SaudiArabianMonetaryAgency,CompanyInformation,TradePress,BMI
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SAUDI HORECA 2011RiyadhInternationalConvention&ExhibitionCenter 0602 SAUDI HORECA 2011RiyadhInternationalConvention&ExhibitionCenter
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Confectionery
Food Data Highlights
Confectionery annual value sales growth to 2015: 1.11%
Notes on Confectionery in Saudi Arabia
The forecast until 2015 will remain being largely driven by premiumisation momentum with astrong opportunities to producers able to place products to capture upside provided bypremiumisation.
The growth is expected to be spread across the sugar confectionery, chocolate and gumsegments. Putting in mind that Saudi consumers are somewhat sensitive toward prices. There-fore, products at the low end of the price range are probable to remain mostly popular. Detailed Analysis for Drink (Soft Drink)
Drink Data Highlights
Headline soft drinks value sales forecast annual growth to 2015: 6.28%Carbonates value sales forecast annual growth to 2015: 2.04%Bottled water value sales forecast annual growth to 2015: 5.77%Fruit juice value sales forecast annual growth to 2015: 11.08%
Keynotes Factors for Drink in Saudi Arabia
The drink industry will carry on a strong growth and will increase over the forecast period to
2015. The growth is out of the following causes:
Table: Confectionery Sales- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006- 2015
2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f
33.79 34.38 34.63 34.63 34.76 35.09 35.51 36.00 36.48 37.00
87.54 106.00 116.21 135.44 141.09 159.94 166.75 180.09 196.90 1.42
987.2 1,171.7 1,259.1 1,142.5 1,449.6 1,550.1 1,646.4 1,744.3 1,871.7 300.5
Confectionery Sales (SARmn)
Confectionery Sales Growth, SAR (y-o-y)
Confectionery Sales (US$mn)
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast;na= notavailable/applicable.Source:MinistryofEconomyandPlanning,CentralDepartmentof Statistics,SaudiArabianMonetaryAgency,CompanyInformation,TradePress,BMI
0.00
5
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0.20.40.60.81..01..2141.61.82.0
2010f
ConfectionerySales2005-2015
ConfectionerySales(SARmn)(LHS)ConfectionerySalesgrowth,SAR,(y-o-y)
e/f=BMIestimate/forecast;na =notavailable/applicable.source:MinisrtyofEconomyandplanning,CentralDepartmentofStatisties,SaudiArabianMonetaryAgency,CompanyInformation,TradePress,BMI
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Table: Soft Drink Sales- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006- 2015
2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2014f 2015f
2.483 2.533 2.583 2.593 2.626 2.672 2.728 2.859 2.927
2.895 3.040 3.192 3.243 3.296 3.480 3.714 4.260 4.535
2.389 2.628 2.891 3.016 3.119 3.494 3.970 5.523 5.647
1.013 1.023 1.033 1.036 1.042 1.053 1.066 1.096 1.112
271.4 294.0 318.4 324.4 336.5 358.3 386.1 451.2 483.8
9.051 9.517 10.017 10.213 10.420 11.057 11.863 13.751 14.705
5.04 5.15 5.25 1.95 2.03 6.11 7.29 7.45
663.0 676.3 689.8 692.5 701.2 713.4 728.3 763.3 781.5
6.93
773 812 852 866 880 929 992 1.137 1.211
638 702 772 805 833 933 1.060 1.358 1.508
270.4 273.1 275.8 276.7 278.3 281.0 284.6 292.8 296.8
72.5 78.5 85.0 86.6 89.9 95.7 103.1 120.5 129.2
2.417 2.541 2.675 2.727 2.782 2.952 3.168 3.672 3.927
137.2102.1 105.2 108.5 107.7 107.1 111.3 117.1
2013f
2.792
3.984
4.523
1.081
418.4
12.798
7.88
745.5
1.064
1.208
288.7
111.7
3.417
124.0 130.7
Carbonated Drink Sales (SARmn)
Bottled Water Sales (SARmn)
Juice Sales (SARmn)
Laban Sales (SARmn)
Energy Drink Sales (SARmn)
Soft Drink Sales (SARmn)
Total Soft Drink Sales Growth, SAR, (y-o-y)
Carbonated Drink Sales (US$mn)
Bottled Water Sales (US$mn)
Juice Sales (US$mn)
Laban Sales (US$mn)
Energy Drink Sales (US$mn)
Soft Drinks Sales (US$mn)
Per Capita Soft Drink Spend (US$)
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast;na= notavailable/applicable.Source:MinistryofEconomyandPlanning,Central DepartmentofStatistics,SaudiArabianMonetaryAgency,CompanyInformation,TradePress,BMI
SAUDI HORECA 2011RiyadhInternationalConvention&ExhibitionCenter 0802 SAUDI HORECA 2011RiyadhInternationalConvention&ExhibitionCenter
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o Alcoholic drinks industry absence.oHarsh climate in Saudi Arabia.o Size of population which make up approximately two thirds of the Gulf's population
Saudi Arabia soft drink industry is the largest by volume and value comparing to the region's industry.The consumers as we mentioned are brand-loyal and are always interested in new and origi-nal products, which is a very essential factor in the drink industry.The flavored, bottled water with an emphasis on the size of bottles, are taking a great place
in the industry due to the lack of adequate drinkable water thus, it will carry on stronggrowth over the forecast period.Off-trade sales of soft drink through retail channels account for 80% of total volume sales,
with supermarket and hypermarkets accounting for approximately 36% of soft drink sales,while independent food stores accounted for around 22%.
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2010f
SoftDrinkSales2005-2015
Carbonateddrinksales(SARmn)
Bottledwatersales(SARmn)Juicesales(SARmn)
e/f=BMIestimate/forecast;na=not available/applicable.source:MinisrtyofEconomyandplanning,CentralDepartmentofStatisties,SaudiArabianMonetaryAgency,CompanyInformation,TradePress,BMI
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Detailed Analysis for Drink (Hot Drink)
Drink Data Highlights
Coffee value sales forecast annual growth to 2015: 4.53%Tea value sales forecast annual growth to 2015:2.43%
Keynotes Factors for Drink in Saudi Arabia
Coffee Sales are anticipated to surpass tea sales in term of annual growth to 2015.
Constant on-trade strength, emphasized by the expanding prominence of westernstyled coffee shops.Growth in tea is anticipated to be mostly determined by product growth and the wider permea-tion of fruit teas playing an progressively more key role in motivating growth.
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0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009e
2011f
2012f
2013f
2014f
2015f
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2010f
Tea And Coffee Sales
2005-2015
Coffee sales (SARmn)
e/f =BMI estimate/forecast; na = not available/applicable.source: Minisrty of Economy and planning, CentralDepartment of Statisties, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Company Information, Trade Press, BMI
Tea sales (SARmn)
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