hong kong’s expanding railway links with the gba kong/2019_ima… · hong kong’s expanding...

1COLLIERS INSIGHTS

Colliers INSIGHTS

HONG KONG’S EXPANDING RAILWAY LINKS WITH THE GBAThe Implications for Urban Development

1COLLIERS INSIGHTS

The West Kowloon Station will not only provide high-speed rail services to Futian, Shenzhen North, Dongguan and Guangzhou South, but likely also to Lo Wu in Shenzhen and Guangzhou East. If the Zhanjiang-Shenzhen CRH also stops in Shenzhen North, which is presently served from West Kowloon Station by Hong Kong’s first XRL, it will effectively provide Hong Kong with a high-speed rail service to Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Jiangmen and Zhanjiang on the west bank of the Pearl River, improving the S.A.R’s HSR connectedness to the core Greater Bay Area.

The expansion of destinations served by the high-speed rail from West Kowloon is likely to make the Hung Hom Station redundant as a border crossing point. Allowing for potential opportunities for re-zoning and re-development.

Development of the Western Express Line, going from Hung Shui Kiu to Qianhai and from Hong Kong International Airport to Shenzhen International Airport, is likely to go ahead. Priority will be given to the Hung Shui Kiu-Qianhai spur line, which will drive the creation of two New Territories North Core Business Districts around Hung Shui Kiu and Tuen Mun.

Hung Shui Kiu-Qianhai is only part of a larger envision railway system connecting Shenzhen’s Qianhai CBD, via Hung Shiu Kiu, Tuen Mun and North Lantau, to a new GBA oriented CBD3 to be built on the Lantau Tomorrow Vision reclamation area, and from there to Western and Central Districts, and the core Central/Admiralty CBD area.

SUMMARY

COLLIERS INSIGHTS 1

•

•

•

•

COLLIERS INSIGHTS 2

Macao

Guangzhou

Shenzhen

Chaozhou

Zhanjiang

Shaoguan

Zhuhai

Huizhou Shanwei

Foshan

JieyangShantou

MeizhouHeyuan

Dongguan

Zhongshan

Zhaoqing

Yunfu

JiangmenYangjiangMaoming

GUANGDONG

Ganshen Line

Zhanshen Line

Nanguang Line

Wuguang Line

Guiguang Line

Hangshen Line

Qingyuan

System theory tells us that a system is a cohesive agglomeration of interrelated and independent parts, surrounded and influenced by its environment. China Railway High-Speed (CRH), a high-speed rail service operated by China Railway, is a perfect example of such a manmade system; and when Hong Kong joined the system on 23 September 2018, it changed the city’s future development of urban transportation.

When the Guangzhou–Shenzhen–Hong Kong Express Rail Link (XRL) was commissioned in 2018, Hong Kong’s West Kowloon Station became its first linkage to China’s CRH system. The linkage is bound to produce some unexpected dividends for Hong Kong because “a system is more than the sum of its parts, express synergy and emergent behaviour, changing one part of the system usually affects the whole system.” China has fast-tracked further expansion of the CRH system, the network, which extends to 30 of the country’s 33 provincial-level administrative divisions and runs for 29,000 km, is set to reach 38,000 km by 2025.

EXPANSION OF CHINA’S NATIONAL HIGH-SPEED RAIL SYSTEM AND THE IMPACT ON HONG KONG

Under the heading ‘CRH’ there are, in fact, two types of high-speed rail systems. One system can run up to 300+ kilometres per hour while the second system has maximum travelling speeds of 200-299 kilometres per hour.

What this means, is that any future major extension of the national CRH grid will inevitably directly impact Hong Kong. It will be impacted not only by new planned rail links within Guangdong province, but also by larger extensions of the national CRH system, such as the Beijing-Kowloon CHR, which will have a transformative effect on the provincial CRH system. This will have some extraordinary, and in some cases, unanticipated knock-on effects. Impacting both Hong Kong’s own metro and rail stations, as well as larger urban development planning.

Throughout this report we will explore and discuss some of the short-term and medium-term effects the expansion of the national HSR system will have in Hong Kong.

Current and future CRH system in Guangdong Province, and its linkage with Hong Kong.

County boundary

CRH Lines capable for speed 200-299km/h

Station

CRH Lines capable for speed above 300km/h

Future CRH lines capable for speed above 300km/h

Future CRH lines capable for speed 200-299km/h

Conventional lines with no CRH Service

HONG KONG

COLLIERS INSIGHTS 3

SHORT-TERM IMPACT: HUNG HOM AND WEST KOWLOON STATION

In the short term, the potential redundancy of the Guangzhou–Kowloon through train and expanded role of Kowloon Station is a game changer.

The new Ganzhou–Shenzhen high-speed railway, or Ganshen CRH, is the last sub-section of the larger Beijing-Kowloon CRH to be completed. When finished in 2021 it will provide a direct CRH route from Kowloon to Beijing, shortening the travel time to the national capital from Hong Kong by bypassing the currently congested Guangzhou-Wuhan CRH. Another, and less publicized, impact of the Beijing-Kowloon CRH is that it will extend West Kowloon Station’s service not only to Guangzhou South Station, but to the Guangzhou East Station as well. This will effectively increase passenger volumes in the West Kowloon Station, while likely making the Hung Hom terminal of the Guangzhou–Kowloon through train redundant.

This process already appears to have been set in motion, in December 2018, the MTR Corporation submitted a summary

of the first two months of the XRL operations to LEGCO. Noting that ridership of the Guangzhou-Kowloon through train declined by 28%, compared y-o-y.

The new Ganzhou-Shenzhen CRH will intersect with the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong XRL and Guangzhou- Shenzhen Railway, running perpendicular to them. The 2021 completion of the Ganzhou Line will mean that passengers accessing the CRH system in West Kowloon Station will have the option of traveling on a new line along the Guangzhou-Shenzhen high-speed railway tracks – seamlessly transferring onto the Ganzhou-Shenzhen CRH tracks before ending at the Guangzhou East Station.

Futian

Shenzhen North

West Kowloon

MTR Intercity Through Train

Luowu

Hung Hom

Guangzhou East

Guangzhou Station

GUANGDONG

HONG KONG

County boundary


Station





Zhanshen Line

Ganshen Line

Guangshen Line

Hangshen Line

Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong XRL

Guangshen Line permitting West Kowloon Station to provide Guangzhou East Station through train service

1COLLIERS INSIGHTS

HUNG HOM RE-DEVELOPMENT West Kowloon Station’s existing direct service to Guangzhou South Station and planned direct connection to the Guangzhou East Station, will not only expand the station’s rail services but make the present Guangzhou– Kowloon through train, which is not part of the CRH system, redundant. By reducing Hung Hom’s role as a cross-border station there is the potential to reconfigure the station, downsizing it to serve the Shatin-Central Link Phase II and the East Rail Line only.

The Hung Hom Station area amounts to 4.7 hectares, including the immigration facilities, Hong Kong Coliseum and car parking; and the Station’s logistics area and the Hung Hom Pier cover an additional 3.3 hectares, amounting to what could be a valuable eight-hectare site for re-development – subject to the Hong Kong government agreeing to change the Outline Zoning Plan for Hung Hom by the Planning Department.

COLLIERS INSIGHTS 4

COLLIERS INSIGHTS 5

01 The Hong Kong Polytechnic University

02 East Tsim Sha Tsui

03 Cross-Habour Tunnel

04 SCL Platform

05 Car Park (PDA)

06 Though Train Platform (PDA)

07 East Rail Line Platform

08 Hong Kong Coliseum (PDA)

09 SCL Tunneling (PDA)

10 Pier (PDA)

Point of Interest PDA: Potential Development Area

01

02

03

04 05 06 07

08

09

10

West Kowloon Station’s direct service to Guangzhou East Station would allow the opportunity to reposition and redevelop an eight-hectare site in Hung Hom.

HONG KONG RE-DEVELOPMENT AREA

COLLIERS INSIGHTS 6

MEDIUM TO LONG TERM IMPACT: CENTRAL AND WESTERN DISTRICT, LANTAU TOMORROW VISION AND THE CBD3, TUEN MUN AND HONG SHUI KIU

Over the medium-term, the Lantau Tomorrow Vision – a development project which includes the creation of a third core business district, with rail connections to Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territories and Qianhai Shenzhen is similarly a game changer.

ending at a new metro station which is envisioned to be developed on the River Trade Terminal’s current site. From this station, a new metro line would then travel to Hung Shui Kiu to connect to the Qianhai Spur Line, as one of the three constitutent projects under the proposed Western Express Link.

The Hong Kong Port, recent completion of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, coming completion of the Hong Kong International Airport’s Third Runway System (3RS) and the Tuen Mun – Chek Lap Kok Link (TM-CLKL), combined with the ‘double gateway’ role envisioned for the CBD3 from LTV is already stimulating renewed interest in the South Lantau development land market. One recent instance of this market shift is, the successful February 25th bid of HKD1.3 billion from Huge Choice Group, an affiliate of the mainland China developer – Agile Group, to acquire a luxury site in Cheung Sha, South Lantau. The price, which exceeded market expectations by 50%, indicated that despite current soft market conditions for government land sales; developers, and especially leading mainland Chinese groups, have begun taking a much more sanguine view of the future of Lantau South.

This more upbeat view of this specific area is being stimulated not only by the major infrastructure projects recently completed and in pipeline, but also by the fact that the entire Cheung Sha beach area lies within the larger precinct that will be stimulated by the LTV reclamation project.

Future expansions in CRH connectivity between Hong Kong and Shenzhen will be critical to the Lantau Tomorrow Vision (LTV) project, as a key connector between Hong Kong, Lantau, New Territories North, and Shenzhen’s own future CBD – Qianhai.

Developing the LTV involves reclaiming 1,700 hectares for the foundation for a future CBD3 that can provide a proposed 43 million sq ft of office space. Some commentators argue that given the number of unsold sites in the Kai Tak Development Area and still un-revitalized industrial properties in the older industrial areas of CBD2, there is no pressing need to create a large-scale third core business district, based on proven growth in Hong Kong’s office requirements. Hence, we believe the real but unstated ‘vision’ behind the LTV project is a plan to capture the substantial rise in future office demand from the positive synergy arising from increased interaction between the GBA’s two leading office hubs.

LTV is designed to function as a ‘double gateway’ between the world and the GBA by connecting Qianhai in Shenzhen with Hong Kong Island’s Western District, Central and Admiralty. The proposal includes a Western road and rail corridor starting in the Western District and possibly tying in with the Hong Kong Island Line. This corridor is envisioned as connecting Hong Kong Island with Kau Yi Chau and with Sunny Bay, resulting in a Western Coastal Link running across Urmston Road and along Tuen Mun’s western coast, before

COLLIERS INSIGHTS 7

The Lantau Tomorrow Vision would include connections between a new CBD3 in Lantau, Hong Kong’s CBD, and Shenzhen’s Qianhai CBD.

River TradeTerminal

Qianhai

Hung Shui Kiu

Sunny BayStation

Kau Yi Chau

Kennedy TownStation

Hong KongStation

Siu Ho WanStation

Tung ChungEast Station

Tung ChungWest Station

Tung ChungStation

Hong Kong International Airport

Hung Shui Kiu to Qianhai Spur Line

Highway

Future Railway

Station

New Development Areas

Reclamation

Tung Chung Line

Tung Chung Line Station

Possible Future Railway

Island Line

COLLIERS INSIGHTS 8

Tin Shui WaiProposed Green Transit Corridor

Road NetworkImprovement

Tin Shui WaiStation

WEL Rail Line to Qianhai

Long PingStation

Yuen LongStation

Hung Shui KiuStation

Tuen Mun Western Bypass

Proposed New Road System

Siu Hong Station

Hung Shui KiuStation

Buildings

Podium

Tuen Ma Line

Future Road Network

Light Rail

Proposed Green Transit Corridor

Station

Road

Western Express Link

Western Corridor

Hung Shui Kiu role as a terminus for the Qianhai spur line, will result in Qianhai’s upgrade as a new GBA transportation node.

The Qianhai Spur Line and the implications for Hung Shui Kiu

The previous head of the Planning Department was quoted as recommending the upgrade of the Hung Shui Kiu New Development Area, in light of its future importance as a transportation hub in the GBA, and to re-designate it as the ‘New Territories North Core Business District’ (CBDN). He specifically suggested that a substantial parcel of land be set aside for a new high-tech and logistics zone in Hong Shiu Kiu, with the provision that in the future it be convertible to commercial use – if required.

The future Hung Shui Kiu Station of the West Rail Line, which is still under planning and is a major feature in the development of Hung Shui Kiu New Town. Within the planning for the new station space for the development of the future Qianhai Spur Line transfer station has already reserved.

Hung Shui Kiu Station -Tuen Ma Line

Hung Shui Kiu Station -WEL Spur Line

COLLIERS INSIGHTS 9

February 2019’s Outline Development Plan (ODP) states that a key goal is to “consolidate and enhance Hong Kong’s status as an aviation hub, while raising the competitiveness of Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s airports as international hubs” and pursuing the “positive interaction of airports in the GBA”.

It has been proposed that a 41 km Hong Kong-Shenzhen Western Express Line (WEL) be developed as a multi-functional cross-boundary railway, linking the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) with the Shenzhen International Airport (SZIA), and allowing persons to deplane at either airport to travel as bonded passengers between airports, to catch flights, without passing through Immigration boundary control points.

However, the CRH project joining HKIA and SZIA has been shelved for the time being. WEL was first proposed in 2009 but was abandoned after a Hong Kong study found that it would cost more than HKD100 billion and Shenzhen was likely to gain more from the increase in international air connectivity than Hong Kong. Initial reservations were reinforced by concerns that Hong Kong might have to cover the largest part of the construction costs, as well as doubts around the potential passenger volumes between the two airports, and the fact that the proposed CRH is not designed to serve heavily populated areas.

Nevertheless, Shenzhen’s officials continue to push for the WEL project. The current thinking is that the project is likely to be placed back on the front burner as it could help HKIA become a transit hub between mainland China and overseas destinations – SZIA can provide access to second and third tier cities in China while HKIA could provide access to over 200 global destinations.

This is well aligned with the ODP long-term planning goals and would represent a ‘win-win outcome’ for both the S.A.R. and the SEZ.

County boundary


Station





LONG TERM IMPACT: HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, HONG SHUI KIU, LANTAU NORTH, TUEN MUN AND WEST KOWLOON STATION

Over the longer term, after liking CBDs in Hong Kong and Shenzhen via an XRL spur line, the next step will be to connect the Hong Kong International Airport and the Shenzhen International Airport.

The Western Express Line which connects the HKIA to the SZIA, presently postponed, is likely to eventually proceed.

Hung Shui KiuWesternExpress Link


Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport

COLLIERS INSIGHTS 10

A CRH between HKIA and SZIA would further expand Hong Kong’s high-speed rail access to urban areas on the Western Banks of the Pearl River Delta

The Shenzhen-Zhanjiang CRH, which is currently under construction and scheduled for completion in 2024, will connect Shenzhen and Zhanjiang via a series of major second tier cities on the West Bank of the Pearl River Delta (PRD). Namely Zhuhai, Zhongshan and Jiangmen as well as third tier cities such as Maoming, Taishan, Kaiping and Enping.

However, the Shenzhen-Zhanjiang CRH terminus location is still being decided. If it is located in Shenzhen, there are two transportation design options:

The Ganshen Line, currently under construction, is considering two different terminus options in Shenzhen, each with a distinct impact on Hong Kong.

Hung Shui Kiu


Shenzhen North(Option 1)

Xili Station(Option 2)

Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong XRL

MTR Intercity Through Train

Ganshen Line

Zhanshen Line

Western Express Link

County boundary


Station





The new CRH would terminate at Shenzhen North, in Longhua, further bolstering the position of the West Kowloon XRL Station, which already serves this station via its Guangzhou South Station line.

The terminus would be located in Xili in Nanshan, and traveling would involve going through SZIA in Bao’an. This option provides a better platform for the eventual launch of the Hong Shui Kiu to Qianhai Spur Line, by not only linking the two CBDs and airports, but by expanding the functionality of the future SZIA CRH station, so that it provides direct links to all major cities in the West Bank of the PRD.

1.

2.

1COLLIERS INSIGHTS

The West Kowloon Station is likely to emerge as a ‘mega cross boundary terminus’, providing high-speed rail services to many urban areas in the Pearl River Delta

As Hong Kong’s connectedness to the national CRH system has become more prominent, people are increasingly speculating – will Hong Kong host more national CRH stations? And if so, where will they connect to?

SHENZHENInterestingly, some of China’s Central government-backed enterprises have recently become active in the discourse, effectively running ahead of the Hong Kong government’s own Transportation and Housing Bureau and its Rail Development Strategy. In September 2018, during a corporate branding press conference in Shenzhen, China Resources Land revealed plans to develop a major commercial complex in Hubei, in the Luowu district, close to the Man Kam To border crossing. In a separate report, China Resources Land also announced plans for a CRH station in the basement of the complex. A schematic map indicated that the proposed CRH Line would include a station for a new line running North-South, which would cross the border, possibly use an existing bifurcating tunnel system in Shek Kong, before terminating at the West Kowloon Station.

West Kowloon currently has 14 platforms and an additional eight which are being held in reserve and are likely to be used not only to service Futian, Shenzhen North and Guangzhou South – as at present, but also Guangzhou East and a third destination, possibly Hubei Station in the Louwu District.

CONCLUSION


1COLLIERS INSIGHTS

Hubei Station

West Kowloon Station Hung Hom Station

County boundary


Station





Qianhai Luowu FutianFutian Station

Shenzhen North

Hong Kong’s future rail network will feature connectivity between Hong Kong’s Central district, Shenzhen’s Qianhai, HKIA, and SZIA. It will expand West Kowloon Station’s service to key cities in the Greater Bay Area.

HONG KONG

BEIJINGThe Beijing-Hong Kong CRH will run from the Beijing West Railway Station to the West Kowloon Station, traversing Chongqing, Henan, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi, before travelling down through Guangdong and Hong Kong. Scheduled to be commissioned in 2021, along with the completion of the Ganshen Line, connecting Jiangxi in Ganzhou to Shenzhen North, the Beijing-Hong Kong CRH is likely to substantially increase the volume of passengers passing through West Kowloon Station.

ZHANJIANGIf the Zhanjiang-Shenzhen CRH also stops in Shenzhen North, the West Kowloon Station would effectively extend its service lines beyond Shenzhen East and West, Dongguan, and Guangzhou East and South to include Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Jiangmen and Zhanjiang on the west bank of the Pearl River Delta. This would position West Kowloon Station as a hyper- connected station and increasing Hong Kong’s connectiveness to the entire core of the GBA via high-speed rail.


1COLLIERS INSIGHTS

For Futher information, please contact: NIGEL SMITHManaging Director, Hong Kong+852 2822 [email protected]

Primary Author: ANDREW NESSSenior Consultant | Strategic Market Intelligence+852 2822 [email protected]

About Colliers InternationalColliers International (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading global real estate services and investment management company. With operations in 68 countries, our 14,000 enterprising people work collaboratively to provide expert advice and services to maximize the value of property for real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For more than 20 years, our experienced leadership team, owning more than 40% of our equity, have delivered industry-leading investment returns for shareholders. In 2018, corporate revenues were $2.8 billion ($3.3 billion including affiliates), with more than $26 billion of assets under management.

For the latest news from Colliers, visit our website or follow us on

hong kong’s expanding railway links with the gba kong/2019_ima… · hong kong’s expanding...

Documents