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EMODnet Sea-basin Checkpoints Tender no MARE/2012/11

EMODNETOilPlatformLeakBulletin

Date:13/05/2016

TheEuropeanMarineObservationandDataNetwork(EMODnet)isfinancedbytheEuropeanUnionunderRegulation(EU)No.1255/2011oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncilof30November2011establishingaProgrammetosupportthefurtherdevelopmentofanIntegratedMaritimePolicy.

EMODnetSea-BasinCheckpointProjectMARE/2012/11OilLeakBulletin

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Executive Summary InAugust2013anincidentoccurredduringatankerloadingoperationatabuoyoffthecoastoftheSidiKerirterminaloftheSumedpipeline(LAT:31,130824N;LON:29,75227E)withanestimatedrateof5000m3 Brent crude oil spilled during a period of 24 hours starting 8:15 CET on 13/08/2013. Theaccidentwentlargelyunattendedintheaftermathofthe2013EgyptianCoupd’étatduringaperiodofunrestandinstability.TheEMODnetOilPlatformLeak (OPL)Bulletinhasbeenproducedafter24hours fromtheDGMARErequestreportingthesimulationofthetransportandtransformationof theoil inthedaysfollowingtheincidentandthelikelihoodofimpactsontheenvironment,consideringtheavailableforcingdatasetsforwindandcurrentfieldstorunaMEDSLIK-IIsimulation.Theshortdailysummaries (eachmorningbefore11:00CET)with few illustrationsof theresultsareprovidedforinforminginterestedstakeholders.


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Preface

OnMaythe10th2016at11.23DGMAREalertedaboutthefollowingsituation(Fig.1):

"InAugust2013anincidentoccurredduringatankerloadingoperationatabuoyoffthecoastoftheSidiKerirterminaloftheSumedpipeline(LAT:31,130824;LON:29,75227)withanestimatedrateof5000m3 Brent crude oil spilled during a period of 24 hours starting 8:15 CET on 13/08/2013. Theaccidentwentlargelyunattendedintheaftermathofthe2013EgyptianCoupd’étatduringaperiodofunrestandinstability."

Figure1:Releasepointoftheoilspill(LAT:31,130824;LON:29,75227).

Bulletin Content

• Hindcastofcurrentsandwind• Fate,transportanddispersionoftheoilatthesurfaceandoncoastsduringthefirst72hours

fromthetimeoftheincident


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• PotentialImpactonenvironmentalandhumanactivities Data and Method

Tab.1summarizestheinputdatausedtoruntheoilspillmodels.

INITIALASSUMPTIONS

OILTYPE Brentcrudeoil(API=38)

LEAKPOSITION LAT:31,130824LON:29,75227

TIMEOFTHELEAK 8:15CETon13/08/2013

DURATIONOFSPILLAGE 24hours

RATEOFSPILLAGE 177Ton/hr

TOTALAMOUTOFOILSPILLED 5000m3

Tab1:oilspillmodelsetupparameters

TheproductionoftheOPL-Bulletinreliesontheavailabilityofmeteo-oceanographicanalysesfortheMediterranean Sea provided through CMEMS (CopernicusMarine EnvironmentMonitoring Service)portalandothernationalforecastingsystems.Thenecessaryinputcharacteristicsare:

• Horizontalvelocityofthewatercolumn(currents)• Temperatureofthewatercolumn• Windvelocitycomponents• Wavedirection(notcompulsory)

Two SCENARIOS have been simulated one at INGV and one at OC-UCY and Tab.2 summarizes theforcingdatasetsusedfortheOPLBulletininthetwosystems.Oceancurrentsand temperaturehavebeendownloaded from theavailableCMEMSMED-MFCdataarchivecontainingdailyaveragesofmodelanalyses.Hourlydataarenotavailable forthepastyearssince CMEMSmaintains only a 30 days rolling archive for hourly data. Atmospheric analyses fromECMWF(SCENARIO1)areavailableforthetestperiod.SCENARIO2considered1-hourlySKIRONwindfieldsandCYCOFOS3hourlywavesimulations.


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SCENARIO 1 2

ProductionCentre INGV OC-UCY

Oilspillmodel MEDSLIKII MEDSLIK

WIND ECMWF SKIRON

temporalresolution 6hours 1hour

spatialresolution 25km 5km

updatefrequency daily saily

CURRENTSandSST CMEMS CMEMS

temporalresolution dailymeans dailymeans

spatialresolution 6.5km 6.5km

updatefrequency daily daily

WAVES - CYCOFOS

temporalresolution - 3hours

spatialresolution - 10km

updatefrequency - daily

Tab.1PredictionsystemsimplementedtoproducetheOPL-Bulletinresults.


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Description of the results

Oil spill after 2 hours13/08/201310:15CET

SCENARIO1

Sea surface currents areestward (Figure 2) andturn slightly southapproachingthecoastline.Wind is north-westerlyand reaches a velocity ofabout6m/s.

The oil spill 2 hours afterthe reported incident didnot impact the coastalzone.

SCENARIO2

In the Sidi Kerir terminalthe sea surface currentsare North-East, while thewind is North-West withlowintensityaslowas3.1m/s.

The oil spill 2 hours afterthe reported incidentwasat sea surface 82.9%withoutany impactat thecoastalzone.

Figure 2: SCENARIO 1 - Position of the oil slick at 10:15 of 13/08/2013 (oil

concentration is given in units of ton/km2) and the corresponding daily surfacecurrents(blackarrows)andwind(greenarrow)producedbyINGV.

Figure 3: SCENARIO 2 - Position of the oil slick at 10:15 of 13/08/2013 (oil


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concentration is given in units of cu.m) and the corresponding daily surface

currents(blackarrows)andwind(whitearrow)producedbyOC-UCY.


SCENARIO1

Sea surface currents are south-estward (Figure 3) and turn

south approaching thecoastline.Windisnorthwesterly

andreachesavelocityofabout6m/s.

The oil spill impacted thecoastal zone after 6 hours of

simulation (15:15 CET) andthere is a progressingbeaching

oftheoil.

SCENARIO2

Theoilstartedtobebeachedatthe coastal zone of Sidi Kerir

terminal 3 hours after thereported time of the incident.

After 24 hours of the oil spillincident, the oil on the coast(permanent and potential

releasable) constitutes the43.68% of the total released

amount, while 39.20% wasevaporated(Figures4-5)

Figure3:SCENARIO1 - Positionof theoil slick at surfaceandon the coasts at 08:15of14/08/2013 (oil concentration is given in units of ton/km2) and the corresponding dailysurfacecurrents(blackarrows)andwind(greenarrow)producedbyINGV.

Figure4:SCENARIO2-Positionoftheoilslickat08:15of14/08/2013(oilconcentrationis


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given in units of cu.m) and the corresponding daily surface currents (black arrows) andwind(whitearrow)producedbyOC-UCY.

Figure5:SCENARIO2-oilonthecoastsafter24hoursincu.m.


SCENARIO1

Surface currents are eastward,turningsouth-eastwardandthe

wind isnorth-westerlyatabout6 m/s. The oil stacks at the

coastalzone.

SCENARIO2

IntheSidiKerirterminaltheseasurfacecurrentscontinuetobe

North-East, while the wind isWest with low intensity 2.7

m/s. The oil stacks at thecoastal zone (permanent and

potential releasable constitutesthe42.64%ofthetotalamount,

while 57.33% was evaporated,during the 48 hours of the

simulation.

Figure4:SCENARIO1 -oilat thesurfaceandonthecoasts in tons/kmafter48hours.


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Figure5:SCENARIO2-Positionoftheoilslickat08:15of15/08/2013,oilconcentrationisgiveninunitsofcu.m.

Figure6:SCENARIO2-oilonthecoastafter48hoursincu.m


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SCENARIO1

Surface currents are eastward,

turningsouth-eastwardandthewind isnorth-westerlyatabout

6 m/s. The oil stacks at thecoastalzone.

SCENARIO2

IntheSidiKerirterminalthesea

surfacecurrentsarecontinuetobe North-East. The wind is

North-West with low intensityaslowas3.2m/s.

The oil stacks at the coastal

zone (permanent and potentialreleasable) constitutes the

36.14% of the total amount,while 63.86% was evaporated,

during the 72 hours of thesimulation.

Figure7:SCENARIO1-oilatthesurfaceandonthecoastintons/kmafter72hours.

Figure8:SCENARIO2-Positionoftheoilslickat08:15of16/08/2013,oilconcentrationisgiveninunitsofcu.m.


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Figure9:SCENARIO2-oilonthecoastincu.mafter72hours.

Final discussion

Figure 10 illustrates the area average percentage of oil in four categories, evaporated, at the seasurface,dispersedinthewatercolumnandatthecoastsforSCENARIO1and2.

TheresultsofbothSCENARIOSshowedthatafter30-40hoursalmostallthereleased,non-evaporatedoil(Figure10redline)arrivedoncoast,mainlyduetothepersistentnorthwesterlywindsandcurrents.Thehighpercentageofthefreeoiloncoast(potentiallycapabletoreturnbacktothesea)shownbybothSCENARIOSisanindicationofpossibleprolongedandextendedcoastalimpactsupto72hours.

InSCENARIO1about30%oftheoilevaporatedinthefirst8hoursandafter30hoursmorethan50%oftheoilevaporated.InSCENARIO2theevaporatedoilreaches40%inthefirst8hoursofsimulationandprogressivelyincreasesupto60%after72hours.

Furthermore Figure 11 presents the estimate of the oil impact on coast from SCENARIO 2. Theestimatedcoastalstripimpactedbytheoilleakis3.55kmlongafter40hours.


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Figure10:Percentageoftheoilonfourcompartments:atthesurface,dispersedinthewatercolumn,evaporatedandat

thecoastsasafunctionofsimulationtime:(left)SCENARIO1;(right)SCENARIO2.

Figure11-SCENARIO2estimatesoftheoilimpactoncoast


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Potential Impact on environmental and human activities

Theassessmentofpotentialimpactsonthecoastalenvironmentandhumanactivitiesneedsadditionaldatasetsaboutkeycharacteristics:

• BathymetryandElevation• Coastalgeomorphology• Seabedsubstrate• Marineandcoastalinfrastructures• Mariculture• MPAs• Transportroutes• Useofcoastalareas

TheavailabilityofthisinformationhasbeenfirstanalyzedontheEMODNETtematicportals.Bathymetry/elevationandcoastalgeomorphologyInformation has been retrieved from the EMODnet Bathymetry web portal http://portal.emodnet-bathymetry.eu/,selectingtheincidentareaandtheinterestinglayers.TheresultisshowninFigure12.Theinitialoilleakhappenedonthecontinentalshelf,veryclosetothecoastlargelyinfluencedbytheNileriverdelta.Thebathymetryoftheincidentareaisshallowerthan50meters.


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Figure 12 -Map of the Incident area containing layer information on: bathymetry, coastline depthcontours,landgeographyandtopography,coastalareaswithhigh-resolutionbathymetry,meandepthfullcoverage.SeaBedHabitatsInformation has been retrieved from EMODnet SeabedHabitat regardingmodeledmaps of specifichabitatsfromMEDISEHEUProject:

• Figure13showsaverylowprobability(<10%)ofhavingcoralligenoushabitatintheimpactedarea,beingariverinfluencedarea.

• Figure14showshightoveryhigh(50-90%)probabilitiestofindmaerlhabitatintheimpactedarea,beingariver-influencedarea.

• Figure15showshightoveryhigh(>50%)probabilitiesoffindingPosidoniaOceanicanearshorearea,withtheexceptionoftheAlexandriaharbor.

Dueto thehighprobabilityofhavingPosidoniaOceanicaonthenearshorearea impactedby theoilleak,theeffectsontheSeabedhabitatandtheecosystemmightbedisastrous.


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Figure13ModeledmapofprobabilityofCoralligenoushabitat (fromMEDISEHProject) retrievedbyEMODnetSeabedHabitatwebportal:http://www.emodnet-seabedhabitats.eu/default.aspx?page=1974


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Figure 14 - Modeled map of probability of maerl habitat (from MEDISEH Project) retrieved byEMODnetSeabedHabitatwebportal:http://www.emodnet-seabedhabitats.eu/default.aspx?page=1974


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Figure15 -Modeledmapof probability of PosidoniaOceanica (fromMEDISEHProject) retrievedbyEMODnetSeabedHabitatwebportal:http://www.emodnet-seabedhabitats.eu/default.aspx?page=1974MarineProtectedAreasandBiologicalzonesInformation about Med conservation areas and biological zones has been retrieved by MedSeaCheckpointChallenge2targetedproduct(MEDSEA_CH2_Product_2).TheproducedshapefilecontainslayerswiththeMedprotectioninitiatives(managementandconservationareas),MPAextensionareasand different protection levels for each of them together with biological depth zones.http://www.emodnet-mediterranean.eu/medsea-challenge-2-product-1/CircalittoralandInfralittoralbiologicalzoneswouldbehighlydamagedasshowninFigure16.

TwoMarineProtectedAreasarelocatednearbytheaccidentzone:

1. InternationalMPAclosetoEl-Alamain,south-westtheimpactedarea;2. NationalMPAenclosingawetlandareaclosetoBaltim,northeasttheimpactedarea.


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Considering the seasonal prevailing circulation in the impacted coastal area the secondMPA couldpotentiallybeaffectedbythecoastalecosystemdamages.

Figure 16 - MEDSEA_CH2_Product_2 developed by MedSea Checkpoint Challenge 2: Medconservationareasandbiologicalzones.ShapefilewiththelayerscontainingtheMedprotectioninitiatives (management and conservation areas),MPA extension areas and different protectionlevels for each of them and depth zones. http://www.emodnet-mediterranean.eu/medsea-challenge-2-product-1/

Transportrouteanduseofcoastalareas

Human Activities web portal (http://www.emodnet-humanactivities.eu/view-data.php) has beenconsidered to retrieve information,butwenotedgapsof informationalong theAfricancoast.NoneMPAorharboraredisplayedonthegraphicinterface.TheinitialleakareaisclosetotheentranceoftheAlexandriaHarbor,whichisthemainportinEgypt.Alexandria isalsoconsideredthesecondmost importantcity inEgyptand itscoastalstrip isdenselypopulated.Theeconomicalimpactoftheincidentontouristicandmaritimetransportactivitieshastobeestimated.


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The main factors which have strong influence on the outcomes of the fate and expected impact

The production of the OPL-Bulletin relies on the availability of meteo-oceanographic forecasts andanalyses for the Mediterranean Sea. In this specific case, it is particularly important to note thatCMEMS (Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service) is the only service that provideshistorical current products to produce the simulations. However time resolution is daily instead ofhourlyandthishasanimpactontheoilspilltransport,asshownintheliterature.ThustheEMODnetOPLhasadegradedqualityduetothelackoftimeresolutionintheCMEMShistorical.

IntheparticularcaseexaminedhereandhavingonlyCMEMSlowresolutionproducts,theaccuracyoftheforecastwillbestronglyaffectedbysmalldisplacementsofthesourcepointbecausecurrentswillbestrongerfaroffshoreandthedisplacedsourcecouldintercepttheboundarycurrentrunningmainlyattheshelfbreak.ThisadditionalSCENARIOmightpresentawiderimpactonthecoastalareaallowingtheadvectionoftheoilfurtheralongthecoastline.

Weaknesses of the assessment methodology

Theweaknessestobepointedoutare:

1. the assessment of the coastal impact: this is dependent on the specific transformation andbeaching processes included in the oil spill model that is normally the weakest part of themodelitself.

2. theassessmentoftheenvironmental impact fromEMODnetHumanActivitiesGIS layers: thisinformationisabsentfortheAfricancoastsandthetestarea.

3. theprioritytobegivenintheassessment:thisshouldbedoneinclosecollaborationwiththeinterestedstakeholdersinordertopresentacustomizedreportonthepossibleimpacts.

Recommendations

FirstrecommendationistoincludeallMedSeaprotectedareasinthehumanactivityportal,sincethecompletedatasetidavailablefromtheMedSeaCheckpoint(challenge2targetedproduct):MEDSEA_CH2_Product_1:Medprotection initiatives,managementandconservationareas,excel filecontaininginformationonMPAextensionareasanddifferentprotectionlevelsforeachofthem.Another recommendation, helpful from a user perspective, is to have the possibility to insert onEMODnet thematic portals GIS maps a pointer or a polygon to highlight the interested area, oreventually,toquerytheavailableinformationaroundaselectedpoint.

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