heavy metal pollution assessment within emep · 2015. 9. 21. · assessment of heavy metal...

Joint EMEP/WGE meeting, Geneva, 2015

Heavy metal pollution assessment

within EMEP

Oleg Travnikov on behalf of MSC-E and CCC


• Monitoring of heavy metals within EMEP (1.1.1-1.1.3)

• Operational modelling of HM transboundary pollution within EMEP

region (1.3.2b)

• Assessment of long-term changes of HM transboundary pollution

(1990-2012) (1.1.4, 1.3.2b)

• Country-scale pollution assessment – Case studies (1.3.5)

• Research & development:

Transition of the modelling system to the new EMEP grid (1.3.4)

Study of Hg interaction with atmospheric aerosol (1.3.8c)

Update of wind re-suspension scheme for heavy metals (1.3.8c)

• Scientific co-operation with subsidiary bodies, international

organizations and programmes (1.6.2, 1.6.3, 1.1.7)

EMEP activities on heavy metals in 2015


Country-scale pollution assessment Case studies of HM pollution in selected EMEP countries

Approach:

Evaluation of pollution levels in a country with fine spatial resolution involving variety of national data

Benefits:

• Detailed emissions data (fine resolution, source categories, LPS)

• Additional measurements from national monitoring networks

• Participation of national experts in joint analysis of the results

Countries involved:

Country Czech Rep Croatia Netherlands Belarus Poland

Status complete complete complete in progress planed

Croatia

Netherlands

Czech Republic

Co-operation with TFMM Items 1.3.5, 1.1.9

Belarus


Pb emissions in Belarus in 2010

Heavy metal pollution in Belarus Co-operation with TFMM Items 1.3.5, 1.1.9

Emissions data (lead):

• Gridded emissions - 10×10 km2

• Source categories

• Large-point sources

Monitoring data:

• National background (1 site)

• National urban (19 sites)

• EMEP sites (1 site, Poland)

• Urban background (5 sites, Poland)

Compilation of country-scale input information

Geophysical information:

• Meteorological data

• Land cover

• Heavy metal concentration in soil

- National background site

- National urban sites

- EMEP site

- Urban background sites (AirBase)

Location of measurement sites

Berezinsky

reserve

PL5 (EMEP)


Heavy metal pollution in Belarus

Simulations of Pb levels on regional and country scales


Pb air concentration within EMEP (2012)

(50×50 km2)

Pb concentration in Belarus

PL5

Berezinsky reserve

(10×10 km2)

0.1 1 10 50

0.1

1

10

50

Mo

de

l, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m 3

Evaluation vs. EMEP observations

Bias = -4.1%

Rcorr = 0.8

F2 = 71%



Pb concentration in Belarus

PL5

Berezinsky reserve

(10×10 km2)

1 10

1

10

Model, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m 3

PL5

Berezinsky

reserve

Model evaluation vs. domestic observations

Simulations of Pb levels on regional and country scales


Measurements

Modelling


Analysis of model and observations data at Berezinsky reserve

Daily air concentration of Pb at Berezinsky reserve (2012)

0

2

4

6

8

1-J

an

31-J

an

1-M

ar

31-M

ar

30-A

pr

30-M

ay

29-J

un

29-J

ul

28-A

ug

27-S

ep

27

-Oct

26-N

ov

26-D

ec

Air c

on

ce

ntr

atio

n, n

g/m

3 Berezinsky reserve

27-29 Apr 2012 04-08 Mar 2012

Elevated observed levels at Berezinsky reserve could be affected by unaccounted emissions in neighboring countries




Analysis of model and observations data at urban sites

Pb concentration in Belarus (2012)

0.5 1 2 10 100 0.5

1

2

10

100

Mo

de

l, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m 3

Model vs. observations at urban sites (Belarus)




Analysis of model and observations data at urban sites

Urban observations of Pb in European countries (AirBase)

-20

0

20

40

60

Pb

air c

on

ce

ntr

atio

ns, n

g/m

3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Me

an

em

issio

n flu

x, kg

/km

2 /y

Mean emission flux of Pb in European countries Location of urban sites

Base map: Pb emissions flux (2012)

National emission data for Belarus can still contain significant uncertainties. Co-operation with TFEIP is encouraged


Case studies: Next steps Co-operation with TFMM Items 1.3.5, 1.1.9

• Continue analysis of Pb pollution levels in Belarus involving

the inverse modelling and construction of emission scenarios

• Extend the scope of the analysis including information and

experts from neighboring countries (e.g. Poland, the Russian

Federation, Ukraine)

• Finalize the study preparing country-specific information for

Belarus with fine spatial resolution

• Initiate a pilot study on heavy metal pollution for Poland


EMEP/MSC-E performed general coordination of the study and led model assessment on a global scale

Objectives:

• Multi-model study of Hg emissions and atmospheric processes

• Evaluation of model performance against global measurement data

• Assessment of Hg intercontinental transport and future scenarios

Participating models:

Model Institution

GLEMOS EMEP

ECHMERIT CNR-IIA (Italy)

CMAQ-Hg HZG (Germany)

WRF-Chem CNR-IIA (Italy)

GEOS-Chem MIT (USA)

GEM-MACH-Hg Environment Canada

p-TOMCAT Cambridge (UK)

Multi-model assessment of Hg Items 1.1.7, 1.3.6, 1.6.2, 1.6.3 Scientific co-operation

Hg processes in the atmosphere

Co-operation with EU GMOS project and TF HTAP


Multi-model assessment of Hg

Monitoring networks for Hg:

• EMEP (Europe)

• NADP/MDN (USA/Canada)

• AMNet (USA)

• NAtChem (Canada)

• GMOS (global)

GMOS partners:

Measurement data used for the analysis (2013)

Scientific co-operation Items 1.1.7, 1.3.6, 1.6.2, 1.6.3

More close co-operation between EMEP and other monitoring programs is required to get access to measurement data

Location of monitoring sites

EMEP

GEM/TGM in air (31 sites)

Wet deposition (135 sites)

GEM, GOM, PBM in air (25 sites)



GLEMOS GEOS-Chem

GEM-MACH-Hg ECHMERIT

Simulations of Hg air concentration (2013)

Scientific co-operation Items 1.1.7, 1.3.6, 1.6.2, 1.6.3

0.6 1 2 30.6

1

2

3

Model, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3

0.6 1 2 30.6

1

2

3

Model, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3

0.6 1 2 30.6

1

2

3

Model, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3

0.6 1 2 30.6

1

2

3

Model, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3

Model ensemble Ensemble vs. observations

0.6 1 2 30.6

1

2

3

Model, n

g/m

3

Observed, ng/m3


Industrial sources

Hg deposition from different emission sectors (2013)

Stationary combustion


Intentional use and product waste

Speciation of global Hg emissions

0 300 600 900

Intentional use &

product waste

Industrial sources

Stationary

combustion

Hg emission, t/y

Hg0

HgIIgas

HgIIpart

Scientific co-operation Items 1.1.7, 1.3.6, 1.3.8c, 1.6.2


Future changes of Hg pollution Model evaluation of future emission scenarios (2035)

Hg emission scenarios for 2035:

• ‘Current Policy’ scenario (CP 2035) Governmental policies and measures existing in 2010

have been adopted, including those that have not

been fully implemented

• ‘New Policy’ scenario (NP 2035) Policy commitments announced by countries

worldwide to reduce GHG emissions and phase out

fossil-energy subsidies have been fully implemented

• ‘Maximum Feasible Reduction’ scenario (MFR 2035)

Maximum possible Hg emission reductions that could

be achieved if no other constraints have been taken

into account

Anthropogenic Hg emissions in 2010 and 2035

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2010 CP

2035

NP

2035

MFR

2035

To

tal e

mis

sio

n, kt



Model evaluation of future emission scenarios (2035)

Future changes of mercury pollution

0

1

2

3

4

2010 CP

2035

NP

2035

MFR

2035

Ave

rag

e H

g d

ep

ositio

n, g

/km

2 /y

North America

0

2

4

2010 CP

2035

NP

2035

MFR

2035

Ave

rag

e H

g d

ep

ositio

n, g

/km

2 /y

South America

0

2

4

6

8

10

2010 CP

2035

NP

2035

MFR

2035

Ave

rag

e H

g d

ep

ositio

n, g

/km

2 /y

Europe

0

2

4

2010 CP

2035

NP

2035

MFR

2035

Ave

rag

e H

g d

ep

ositio

n, g

/km

2 /y

Africa

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 CP

2035

NP

2035

MFR

2035 A

ve

rag

e H

g d

ep

ositio

n, g

/km

2 /y

South Asia

0

5

10

15

2010 CP

2035

NP

2035

MFR

2035

Ave

rag

e H

g d

ep

ositio

n, g

/km

2 /y

East Asia



International Conference on Mercury as a Global Pollutant (ICMGP 2015)

Presentation of multi-model study of mercury

atmospheric processes and intercontinental

transport

UNEP and Minamata Convention Update of the UNEP Global Mercury Assessment 2013 with new model results

based on updated emissions inventory

Co-operation with international bodies Items 1.1.7, 1.3.6

Final GMOS Plenary Meeting (Brussels, 17-18 Sep, 2015)

Overview of GMOS activities on mercury

model assessment on a global scale

Dissemination of the assessment results


Workplan elements on HMs for 2016-2017 Assessment of heavy metal pollution:

Operational monitoring and modelling as well as trend analysis of HM pollution levels within EMEP (1.1.1.2, 1.1.1.10, 1.1.4, 1.3.1)

Country-scale assessment within the Case studies (Belarus, Poland) in co-operation with TFMM and national experts (1.2.4, 1.2.6)

Evaluation of HM background levels in selected cities of the EMEP domain (1.1.1.4)

Assessment of intercontinental transport and contribution of secondary sources to HMs pollution in the EMEP domain (1.3.4, 1.1.4.1)

Research and development:

Transition of heavy metal operational modelling to the new EMEP grid (1.1.1.7, 1.3.3)

Development of multi-media modelling of Hg to assess contribution of secondary and legacy sources (1.1.1.7, 1.1.1.26c)

Scientific co-operation with subsidiary and international bodies on HM pollution (TFMM, TF HTAP, UNEP, AMAP, HELCOM etc.) (1.1.4.1, 1.3.5-1.3.7, 1.1.6, 1.1.8)


Topics for discussion

Pollution assessment in EECCA countries

How to fill the gaps in emissions and monitoring? How to

facilitate collection and evaluation of national data?

Dynamic modelling of heavy metal cycling and accumulation in environmental media

How to organize co-operation between EMEP and WGE?

Heavy metals of the second priority (As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Se, Zn)

Should we intensify activities on heavy metals of the second

priority within EMEP?

heavy metal pollution assessment within emep · 2015. 9. 21. · assessment of heavy metal...

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