Ground Motion Prediction Equation Hazard Sensitivity Results for Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Site (PVNGS) M.Walling SWUS GMC – Workshop 3 March 11, 2013

Hazard ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) sensitivity results

• Base Case • Sensitivity Tests GMPE’s Sigma Mixture Model Tau, Single Station Sigma (PhiSS), Single Station

Path (PhiSP) • Local Source Effects 0 – 200 km • Distant Source Effects 200 – 400 km • Results PGA AFE 10-4 and 10-6 0.5 Hz AFE 10-4 and 10-6

Base Case Faults

• Over 30 faults sources

• Main fault contributor is Cerro Prieto (*)

* Spelling corrected after Workshop #3

Base Case Background Sources

• 11 Background Zones

• Uniform rate of earthquakes

• Host source is the main background zone contributor

Base Case Ground Motion Prediction Equations

Ground Motion Prediction Equations • 5 NGA (2008) GMPEs Abrahamson and Silva Boore and Atkinson Campbell and Bozorgnia Chiou and Youngs Idriss

• Equally weighted with Epistemic Uncertainty • Vs30m = 760 m/sec

GMPE Sensitivity

• Local source effects Normal Fault Mechanism GMPE’s 5 NGA-W1&2,

2013AK, 2013BN (*) • Distant source effects GMPE’s 5 NGA-W1&2,

2006ZH, 2006ZH Modified for M>7.1

* Corrected after Workshop #3

Sensitivity to GMPE PGA & 0.5 Hz at AFE 1E-4

Distant

Local

Sensitivity to GMPE PGA & 0.5 Hz at AFE 1E-6

Distant

Local

Sensitivity to Sigma Mixture Model

• Combination of two normal distributions • Sigma= 0.58 and 0.72 • Effect is fat tail ~ 0.65 • Local source effects sensitivity Results for PGA, 0.5 Hz 1E-4

• Distant source effects sensitivity Results for PGA, 0.5Hz 1E-4

Tornado Plot 1E-4 Sigma Mixture

Distant

Local

Mixture of two normal distributions with sigma = 0.58 and 0.72

Sensitivity to Tau Model

• Tau Model – Linda to discuss Wednesday • Local source effects sensitivity Results for PGA 1E-4

• Distant source effects sensitivity Results for 0.5Hz 1E-4, 1E-6

Tornado Plot 1E-4 Tau Model Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in Tau Model

Local

Tornado Plot 1E-4 Tau Model

Distant Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in Tau Model

Tornado Plot 1E-6 Tau Model

Distant Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in Tau Model

Sensitivity to Single Station Sigma Model

• PhiSS – Linda to discuss Wednesday • Local source effects sensitivity Results for PGA 1E-4, 1E-6

• Distant source effects sensitivity Results for 0.5Hz 1E-4, 1E-6

Local Source Sensitivity 1E-4 PhiSS Model

Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSS Model

Local

Local Source Sensitivity 1E-6 PhiSS Model

Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSS Model

Local

Distant Source Sensitivity 1E-4 PhiSS Model

Distant Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSS Model

Distant Source Sensitivity 1E-6 PhiSS Model

Distant Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSS Model

Sensitivity to Path effects

• Sigma Single Station Path (PhiSSP) – Linda to discuss Wednesday North Path South Path

• Results at 0.5 Hz 1E-4 Hazard • Epistemic Uncertainty Upper PhiSSP Median PhiSSP Lower PhiSSP

Tornado Plot 1E-4 PhiSP Model

Distant Showing Epistemic Uncertainty in PhiSP Model

References • Abrahamson, N.A., and Silva, W, (2008). Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva NGA Ground-Motion Relations, Earthquake

Spectra. 24, 67-97. • Abrahamson, N. A., W. J. Silva, and R. Kamai (2014). Update of the AS08 Ground-Motion Prediction Equations Based on the

NGA-West2 Data Set, Earthquake Spectra, This issue (in press). • Akkar, S., M.A. Sandikkaya, and J.J. Bommer (2013). Empirical ground-motion models for point- and exetneded-source crustal

earthquake scenarios in Europe and the Middle East, Bull Earthquake Eng., online publication • Bindi, D., F. Pacor, L. Luzi, R. Puglia, M. Massa, G. Ameri and R. Paolucci (2011). Ground motion prediction equations derived

from the Italian strong motion database, Bull Earthquake Eng., Vol. 9, pp. 1899-1920. • Boore, D.M. and G.M. Atkinson (2008). Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for the Average Horozontal Component of PGA,

PGV, and 5%-Damped PSA at Spectral Periods between 0.01s and 10.0s, Earthquake Spectra. 24, 99-138. • Boore, D. M., J. P. Stewart, E. Seyhan, and G. M. Atkinson (2014). NGA-West2 Equations for Predicting Response Spectral

Accelerations for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes, Earthquake Spectra, (in press). • Campbell, K.W., and Bozorgnia, Y. (2008). NGA Ground Motion Model for the Geometric Mean Horizontal Component of PGA,

PGV, PGD and 5% Damped Linear Elastic Response Spectra for Periods Ranging from 0.01 to 10 s, Earthquake Spectra. 24, 139-171.

• Campbell, K. W. and Y. Bozorgnia (2014). NGA-West2 Campbell-Bozorgnia Ground Motion Model for the Horizontal Components of PGA, PGV, and 5%-Damped Elastic Pseudo-Acceleration Response Spectra for Periods Ranging from 0.01 to 10 sec, Earthquake Spectra, (in press).

• Chiou, B.S-J and Youngs, R.R. (2008). An NGA Model for the Average Horizontal Component of Peak Ground Motion and Response Spectra, Earthquake Spectra. 24, 173-215.

• Chiou, B-S.J. and R. R. Youngs (2014). Update of the Chiou and Youngs NGA Ground Motion Model for Average Horizontal Component of Peak Ground Motion and Response Spectra, Earthquake Spectra, (in press).

• Grazier, V. and Kalkan, E. (2013). Graizer-Kalkan Ground-motion Prediction Equations for Western United States: 2013 Updates, U.S.G.S. Report Series 2013-XXXX, in press.

• Idriss, I.M. (2008). An NGA Empirical Model for Estimating the Horizontal Spectral Values Generated By Shallow Crustal Earthquakes, Earthquake Spectra. 24, 217-242.

• Idriss, I. M. (2014). NGA-West2 Model for Estimating Average Horizontal Values of Pseudo-Absolute Spectral Accelerations Generated by Crustal Earthquakes, Earthquake Spectra, in press.

• Zhao, J.X., Zhang, J., Asano, A., Ohno, Y., Oouchi, T., Takahashi, T., Ogawa, H., Irikura, K., Thio, H.K., Somerville, P.G., Fukushima, Y., and Fukushima, Y. (2006). Attenuation Relations of Strong Ground Motion in Japan Using Site Classification Based on Predominate Period, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., Vol. 96, 898-913.