gol asia v1 eng
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TRANSCRIPT
1
A Consistent Story with
Strong FundamentalsNon Deal Roadshow Asia - April, 2010
“Here Everyone Can Fly”
2
A Consistent Story with
Strong Fundamentals
1| GOL | Evolution of the low cost and low fare model
2| Largest and less penetrated market in the region
3| Consistent Story with Strong Fundamentals
4| Appendix
3
1| GOL - Evolution of the low cost and
low fare model
A Consistent Story with
Strong Fundamentals
4
TAM 46.3%
GOL 47.8% Oceanair
4.2%
Azul0.3%
Webjet0.6%
NHT 0.9%
Dominant Postion & Standardized B737 FleetWidest route network in Latin America: 50 destinations in Brazil and 10 in
South America and Caribbean Region
Standardized & Young B737NG Fleet
(108 aircraft ~150 – 190 seats)
“GOL’s Stronghold”
2 hour flight range
65% traffic
65% population
75% Brazilian GDP
Mainstream market demands
150-200 seat aircraft
Low cost and strong airport
position prevails
Avg.fleet age: 6 years
Congonhas Airport Slot-Share(São Paulo City) (2)
(1) Considering Pantanal’s redistribution: Azul and Webjet slots are weekends only and NHT 10 out of 28 slots’ are weekdays(2) Source: Infraero Brazilian Airport Authority From Jul-Oct/09 – Congonhas, Brasilia, Recife, Santos Dumont, Confins, Salvador, Galeão, Porto Alegre and Curitiba)
GOL42.6%
TAM38.2%
Other19.2%
High Frequency network (1) :
Next departure will probably be a GOL flight
Brazilian Market Rationale
No secondary airports
Unbalanced population and GDP Generation
Concentrated population density in few large cities
Slotted airports
GOL TAM Others
27% 43% 30%
Slots Distribution
Before VRG Aquisition
5
Strong Code Share and Loyalty Program Integration Agreements
with the dominant long haul players (2)
69% pax.
Brazil Spain
61% pax.
Brazil France
100% pax.
Brazil Holland
36% pax.
Brazil USA
85% pax.
Brazil Mexico
38% Pax.
Brazil N.America
31% Pax.
Brazil Europe
Cost Leadership and Intelligent Sales ChannelsStrong position in Latin America and low cost high efficient sales
channels, generates cross sales and improves GOL’s dynamic yield
management
2009 Total Cost / Passenger (US$) (1)
Largest Loyalty and Client Financing Programs in LATAM
4.4
5.9 5.7
90.0%
92.4%94.0%
2007 2008 2009
Online seat sales (R$ Bn) voegol.com % of net revenues
One of the Largest E-commerce Platforms
in LATAM w/ 40mm unique visitors per year
Financing
+
Educating
+
Marketing
Customer Loyalty
+
Corporate Partnerships
+
Value to GOL Shareholders
Increase operating margins by selling “empty seats”
(1) Source: Companies reports: considers COPA, LAN and TAM as LATAM peers, and RyanAir, SowthWest, EasyJet, Westjet and
JetBlue, as low cost peers
(2) Source: ANAC – Brazilian Airlines Regulator, 2008 Annual Report
6
Fleet size management (demand x supply)
Maximize fleet utilization rate
Reduce fleet GAP
Next Generation Fleet
Reduce maintenance cost (spare parts inventory and
engine overhauls)
Reduce fuel cost
Higher utilization rate
Tap the new new middle class
Further penetrate in the business segment
Increase sales to international clients
Increase ancillary revenues (new products)
Develop cargo business
New e-commerce platform
Buy on Board
Wireless onboard entertainment
Simple Strategic RationalGOL will improve profitability by increasing passenger volume, generating
ancillary revenue and reducing fixed and variable cost in the short, medium and long run
Decrease CASKIncrease RASK
São Paulo – Fortaleza Interstate Bus GOL
Fare (one-way) R$347 R$358
Time 50 hours 3 hours
GOL x Interstate Bus Cost-Benefit Comparison
São Paulo – Salvador Interstate Bus GOL
Fare (one-way) R$317 R$261
Time 36 hours 2 hours
Inte
rsta
te b
us tra
nsport
s o
ver
60m
m p
assengers
/year
in B
razil
7
Evolution of the Low Cost Low Fare ConceptGOL combines an intelligent low-cost low-fare model with the Brazilian market
dynamics to achieve higher customer satisfaction and return to investors
Higher operating
margin and stronger
balance sheet
More customer
satisfaction and new
products
Optimize fleet utilization
and further dilute unit costs
Dynamic yield
management and new
ancillary revenues
8
2| Largest and less penetrated market in
the region
A Consistent Story with
Strong Fundamentals
9
Brazil is Growing ConsistentlyEconomy and consumer market growth is leading a larger addressable market
3.2%
4.0%
6.1%
5.1%
-0.2%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Consistent Brazilian GDP Growth (%)
4.5%
5.6%
4.9%
7.5%
3.9%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Strong and Continuous Brazilian Real Wages Growth (%YoY)
19.4%
12.3%
11.7%
7.4%
17.6%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Domestic Air Transportation Demand Consistently Grows at Least 2x the Brazilian GDP (% YoY)
10.7%
10.8%
12.7%
12.5%
4.9%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Strong Expansion of Disposable Income (%YoY)
Domestic Traffic Grows Consistently Above GDP
Source: Banco Bank and ANAC (Brazilian Civil Aviation Regulator)
100 107 96115 119
141 131 128140
127155
159
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10/jan
Brazilian Consumer Confidence Reached the Highest Level In History
10
Larger and High Potential Market...Although the low penetration, the Brazilian consumer base is
growing and pushing the addressable market
2.6 2.2 2.1
0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2
1.5 1.4 1.2
0.8
Canada USA Australia Mexico Chile Argentina Brazil
Flights per Capita Flights per capita adjusted by GDP per capita
Brazil is Still is Under Penetrated Market
Flights per capita – Annual Average
1.3%
11.0%
5.6%
3.4%
7.6%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Adressable Market (%YoY) Growing Very Strong
76
98
2003
2009
Brazilian New Middle Class Growth (mm)
98mm
128mm
+30%
+29%
22.6%
19.3%
18.3%
16.0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
Poverty Ratio (%YoY) Playing a Key Role to Expand Market Opportunities in Brazil
Source: IBGE – Brazilian Geography and Statistics Institute and Bradesco Bank
11
8.0 9.1
9.8
11.8 11.5 11.4 11.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
29 32 35 38 43 43 53 57
46 46
63 68
89 98 100 96
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Main benefits to GOL:
Boosts international and domestic traffic
Strengthens country's exposure to the travel and
tourism industries
Brazilian Government committed R$5 billion to invest in airport
infrastructure
Private sector and Government entities are already discussing
infrastructure alternatives
No significant infrastructure short term risk
World Cup hosting cities
Olympics & World Cup to Boost Traffic in BrazilPast events raised air traffic demand to new levels
31 31 41 43 40 43 44 51 59
71 86
120 137
156
180 186
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
China Germany South Africa
Air Travel Passengers Transported (mm)
Source: ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) – considers domestic carriers for both international and domestic flights
12
3| Consistent Story with Strong
Fundamentals
A Consistent Story with
Strong Fundamentals
13
7,382
7,936
7,689
2007 2,008 2009
Divida Bruta Ajustada Divida Bruta Ajust./EBITDAR+ Rec Fin
2009: Delivered GOL Turnaround
27.8%
20.9%
5.50%
3.3%
3.8%
34.1%
Copa
LAN
EasyJet
Sowthwest
JetBlue
GOL
Return on Equity 2009(%)
Source:Companies reports and Reuters
TAM and Ryanair were not included as full year results were not yet disclosed
GOL posted higher profitability growth rate compared to peers
3Q08 Turnaround: Main Targets
Improve cost structure
Increase profitability in the next years
Improve quality of services
Develop new products / ancillary revenues
20% of cash versus LTM Net Revenues
Reduce leverage ratios
Further align management and shareholders
1,393
592
1,442
2007 2008 2009
Disponibilidades (R$MM) Disponibilidades/Receita Líquida
Cash and Equivalents (R$MM)
Cash and Equivalents (R$MM)
Gross Adjusted Debt (R$MM) and Leverage Ratio
Adj. Gross Debt/EBITDAR + Fin. Rev.Adjusted Gross Debt
Cash /LTM Net Revenues
0.4
-2.6
-1.6
1.6
6.0
8.2
Copa
LAN
EasyJet
Sowthwest
JetBlue
GOL
EBIT Margin Growth 08-09 (percentage points YoY)
GOL Milestones
2001-2003: pre-ipo & nationwide coverage years
2004-2006: IPO and network expansion years
2007-2008: VRG Acquisition years
2009-Post VRG Merge Years
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
GOL Share Evolution Last 12 Months
US$3.4
US$12.4
+244%
A Consistent Story with Strong Fundamentals
Market has high growth potential
Still strong space to generate more value
in short, medium and long terms
2010 guidance already implies strong EBIT
margin growth
Management has been delivering very
consistent results
Management is 100% aligned with
shareholders
Management holds strong knowledge of the
Brazilian market dynamics and regulation
Controller shareholder is buying shares
(again) – reinvesting 2009 dividends
Despite the recovery in 2009, GOL should continue to delivery strong
growth, while still way undervalued versus other maturated investment stories
10.5
12.7
11.3
12.3
7.7
7.5
Copa
LAN
EasyJet
Sowthwest
JetBlue
GOL
EV / LTM EBITDAR
15
GOL Investor Relations
Leonardo Pereira
VP, CFO and IR Officer
Rodrigo Alves, Raquel Kim & Mario Liao
Investor Relations
+55 11 2128-4700
www.voegol.com.br/ir
twitter.com/GOLinvestThis presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to the prospects of the
business. estimates for operating and financial results. and those related to growth
prospects of GOL. These are merely projections and. as such. are based exclusively
on the expectations of GOL’s management concerning the future of the business and
its continued access to capital to fund the Company’s business plan. Such forward-
looking statements depend. substantially. on changes in market conditions. government
regulations. competitive pressures. the performance of the Brazilian economy and the
industry. among other factors and risks disclosed in GOL’s filed disclosure documents
and are. therefore. subject to change without prior notice.
16
4| Appendix
A Consistent Story with
Strong Fundamentals
17
2010 Guidance 2009 (A) Worst Case Best Case
Brazilian GDP Growth -0,2% 5.0% 6.0%
Domestic Demand Growth (% RPKs) 17,6% 12.5% 18.0%
Supply and Demand Growth in relation to GDP NM 2.5x 3.0x
Passengers Transported (GOL million) 28.4 31.5 36.5
ASKs, System (billion) 40.0 45.0 47.2
Load Factor (%) 65% Approx. 70% Approx. 70%
Fleet (End of the period) 108 111 111
Yield (R$ cents) 20,34 19.50 21.00
RPK, System (billion) 26.1 31.5 33.0
Departures (000) 274 290 300
CASK ex-fuel (R$ cents) 9.5 8.9 8.5
Fuel litters consumed (billion) 1.29 1.45 1.47
Fuel Price (R$/ liter) 1.40 1.70 1.58
Average WTI (US$ / barrel) 62 82 77
Average Exchange Rate (R$/ US$) 1.99 1.85 1.72
Operating Margin (EBIT) 6.9% 10% 13%
2010 results to improve cash flow generation and set GOL to be
one of the highest growing airlines worldwide
Mind the RASK – CASK Spread
18
32.5
20.3
34,8
23.3
ASK GOL RPK GOL
2008 2009
Domestic Market is Showing Clear Rationality
40.6
27.6
49.5
33.0
67.9%
66.6%
ASK Indústria (ex-GOL) RPK Indústria (ex-GOL)
2008 2009
RPK Industry (ex-GOL)
62.4%
66.9%
Demand (RPK bn), Capacity (ASK bn) and Load Factor (%) 2009 x 2008
GOL was the most conservative company in the industry in 2009 and 2010,
adding capacity according to demand growth in its network
Demand (RPK bn), Capacity (ASK bn) and Load Factor (%): Jan and Feb 2010 x Jan and Feb 2009
5.3
3.5
6.5
4.9
65.9%
75.0%
ASK GOL RPK GOL
2008 2009
7.7
5.1
9.3
6.9
66.8%74.6%
ASK Indústria (ex-GOL) RPK Indústria (ex-GOL)
2008 2009
ASK Industry (ex-GOL) RPK Industry (ex-GOL)
2009 2010
+7.2%
+14.9%
+21.5%
+22.0%
+19.7%
+38.4%+21.0%
+35.1%
ASK Industry (ex-GOL)
2009 2010
Brazil Showing Strength in 2010: GOL added 21% capacity vs. 38% demand growth
19
Flexible Strategy Optimizes Profitability
Strong Economy Scenario
High GDP growth
Strong consumer confidence
Consumer base growth (new middle class)
Leisure and tourism industry growth
Boost Intelligent LCC Model (e.g. 1H10)
Stimulate demand to further penetrate the market
Increase fleet utilization rate (unit cost dilution)
Increase profitability through increasing RASK-CASK spread
Market share trends to increase
Focus on “GOL’s Stronghold” (e.g. 1H09)
Cautious yield management
Focus on business segment and mainstream airports
Reduce fleet utilization rate
Market share trends to decrease
Weak Economy Scenario
High volatility in currency and oil prices
Declining GDP
Low consumer confidence
Higher yields are not necessarily good news: mind the RASK – CASK spread
Sensitivity Analisys vs. 2010 Guidance
Trend vs. Guidance (1) or reflect in operations (2)
Assumption / Scenario Weaker Economy Stronger Economy
Demand (1) Bottom Top
Yield (1) Top Bottom
Load Factor (1) Bottom Top
Fleet Average Utilization Rate (2) Decrease Increase
Average Stage Length (2) Decrease Increase
RASK (2) Increase Increase
CASK (2) Stable / Increase Decrease
Operating Margin (RASK – CASK) (1) Bottom Top
Cash Flow Generation (2) Smaller Larger
20
Successfull Turnaround in 2009GOL: ready to grow and expand operating margins
Operating 2009 2008 Ch% 2007 Ch%
Demand (RPK - bn) 26.1 25.3 3.1% 29.2 -10.8%
Supply (ASK - bn) 40.0 40.1 -2.7% 44.1 -9.2%
Load Factor 65.2% 61.6% +3.7pp 66.4% -1.1pp
Net Revenue(R$MM) 6,025 6,406 -5.9% 4,941 21.9%
Ancillary Revenues 719 516 39.3% 374 92.1%
Passangers Revenues 5,307 5,890 -9,9% 4,567 16.2%
Ancillary Revenues Share 11.9% 8.1% -3.9pp 7.6% +4.4pp
Total Costs (R$MM) (5,612) (6,495) -13.6% (4,931) 13.8%
Total Costs –Ex fuel (3,799) (3,864) -1.7% (3,032) 25.3%
EBIT (R$MM) 413 89 566.2% 10 nm
EBIT Margin 6.9% -1,4% Nm 0.2% +6,7pp
EBITDAR (R$MM) 1.207 682 77.1% 598 101.7%
EBITDAR Margin 20.0% 10.6% +9.4pp 12.1% +7.9pp
Net financial result (R$MM) 343 (1,106) Nm (191) 79.5%
Income tax (R$MM) 135 (44) Nm (34) Nm
Net Income (loss) (R$MM) 891 (1,239) Nm 167 Nm
Net Margin 14.8% -19,3% Nm 3,4% +11.4pp
21
Competitive
Advantages
Brazilian Economy
Services Quality
Yields
4Q09: Good Results and Financial Adjustments
Operating 4Q09 3Q09 Ch% 4Q08 Ch%
Demand (RPK - bn) 7.8 6.7 15.9% 5.6 38.0%
Supply (ASK - bn) 10.6 10.2 3.7% 9.5 12.0%
Load Factor 73.4% 65.7% +7.7% 59.5% +13.9%
Operating Income (R$MM) 1,618 1,497 8.1% 1,549 4.5%
Ancillary Revenues 213 228 -6.8% 108 96.3%
Passangers Revenues 1.405 1.269 +10.8% 1.440 -2.4%
Ancillary Revenues Share 13.1% 15.2% -2.1pp 7.0% +6.1pp
Total Costs (1,498) (1,398) 7.2% (1,495) 0.2%
Total Costs –Ex fuel () (1,047) (912) 14.7% (1,010) 3.6%
EBIT 119.2 99.1 20.3% 53.9 121.2%
EBIT Margin 7.4% 6.6% +0.7pp 3.5% +3.9pp
EBITDAR 290.1 298.7 -2.9% 296.5 -2.2%
EBITDAR Margin 17.9% 20.0% -2.0pp 19.1% -1.2pp
Net financial result() (72.7) 58.5 Nm (701.8) -89.6%
Income tax 351.4 (79.7) Nm 106.3 230.4%
Net Income (loss) 397.8 77.9 410.8% (541.6) Nm
Net Margin 24.6% 5.2% +19.4% -35.0% +59.6pp
Ancillary Revenues
(Cargo, Baggages and
737 Spare Parts)
Fuel
Depreciation
Accounting, systems
and REFIS()
Adjusted EBIT:
R$174.2MM (10.8%)
Adjusted EBITDAR :
R$345.1MM (21.3%)
() Lines that where impacted by REFIS
22
7,382
7,936
7,689
2007 2,008 2009
Divida Bruta Ajustada
Divida Bruta Ajust./EBITDAR+ Rec Fin
Improvement in Financial IndicatorsBetter operating results and cash-generating initiatives have strengthened
GOL’s balance sheet, preparing it to support accelerated growth
1,393
592
1,442
2007 2008 2009
Disponibilidades (R$MM) Disponibilidades/Receita Líquida
1,213
2,828
1,692
2007 2008 2009
Dívida Liquida (R$MM) Dívida Líquida/EBITDARas % of LTM net revenues
0.5
0.1
1.9
2007 2,008 2009
Cash and Equivalents
(R$MM)
2008 2008
Gross Adjusted Debt (R$MM)EBITDA/Financial Expenses
Net Debt/EBITDARNet Debt (R$MM)
Adjusted Gross Debt/EBITDAR + Fin. Rev.
Adjusted Gross Debt
Net Debt (R$MM)Cash and Equivalents (R$MM)
23
Debt Amortization 2010 2011 2012 2013 After 2013 Total
Working Capital 160.0 - - - - 160.0
BDMG loan 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 0.2 11.4
BNDES loan 14.4 14.4 8.4 - - 37.1
Debentures - 94.4 94.4 94.4 94.4 377.8
IFC loan 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 - 58.0
Senior notes * - - - - 365.7 365.7
Total 191.7 126.1 120.1 111.8 460.3 1,010.0
R$ MM – as of December 31, 2009
Confortable Debt Payment ScheduleComfortable debt repayment schedule and looking forward to rollover
2010 debt maturities
24
Competition and Fuel Price CorrelationFuel price and industry supply providing much better scenario for GOL
1.70 1.72
1.26
1.93
1.4017.2%1.2%
-26.7%
53.2%
-27.5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Average Fuel Price (GOL R$)
Average Fuel Price Change (GOL %YoY)
Fuel Price Evolution
396 377
287
418
315
2.4%-4.7%
-24.0%
45.8%
-24.5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Industry Domestic Average Fare (R$)Industry Domestic Average Fare (%YoY)
Industry Domestic Average Fare Evolution
28.8%13.8% 8.2% 7.2% 13.0% 16.1%
43.0%
49.1%48.8% 50.4% 45.6% 42.7%
28.3% 37.1% 43.0% 42.4% 41.4% 41.3%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2M10
GOL TAM Others
GOL Focuses on Market Strength not Leadership
81 80
114102
114
16
72.3% 72.2%68.1%
66.8%68.1%
74.8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2M10
Industry Suppy Industry Load Factor
Demand is Surpassing Supply Since 2H09
25
Dividends and Capital IncreaseEnsure that shareholders receive dividends without failing to comply with
the commitment to these same shareholders to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet
Shareholding breakdown - Before Offering ON % ON PN % PN Total % Total
Fundo ASAS 133,199,642 100.0% 35,610,616 26.9% 168,810,258 63.6%
Board of Directors and Executive Members 16 0.0% 1,865,686 1.4% 1,865,702 0.7%
Free-float - 0.0% 94,209,315 71.3% 94,209,315 35.5%
Treasury - 0.0% 454,425 0.3% 454,425 0.2%
Total 133,199,658 100.0% 132,140,042 100.0% 265,339,700 100.0%
Total ex-Treasury 133,199,658 131,685,617 264,885,275
Shares to be issued ON % ON PN % PN Total % Total
Total 3,833,077 100,0% 3,789,507 100,0% 7,622,584 100,0%
Shareholding breakdown – After the Offering
(pro forma 100% subscription)
ON % ON PN % PN Total % Total
Fundo ASAS 137,032,718 100.0% 36,635,380 27.0% 173,668,098 63.6%
Board of Directors and Executive Members 16 0.0% 1,919,375 1.4% 1,919,391 0.7%
Free-float - 0.0% 96,920,370 71.3% 96,920,370 35.5%
Treasury - 0.0% 454,425 0.3% 454,425 0.2%
Total 137,032,735 100.0% 135,929,549 100.0% 272,962,284 100.0%
26
Strong Operational Support
Cash & equivalents higher than 23.9% of LTM net
revenues (R$1.4 billion)
Comfortable debt amortization schedule
Significant improvement in all financial ratios in 2009
Positive operating cash flow generation in the last 7
quarters (including 1Q10)
Strong Exim-Bank Support: US$280 Final Commitment
100% tag-along rights for non-voting PN shareholders
25% minimum dividend payout ratio
Active Board of Directors
4 independent members, including Chairman
Proactive advisory committees
Risk & Finance, Audit, Corporate Governance &
People Management & Strategy
Management compensation aligned with shareholders
and linked to share price
3m average trading volume R$71 MM
Financial strength and high corporate governance standards are key to
ensure long term profitability
2010
Ranked #1 (Market Pool)
Best Managed LATAM 2010 – Airlines & Aviation
Most convincing coherent business strategy
Sound practice of corporate governance