global warming: dc metro region outlook raghu raghavan dc metro science for the people

Global Warming:Global Warming:DC Metro Region DC Metro Region OutlookOutlook

Raghu RaghavanRaghu Raghavan

DC Metro DC Metro Science for the Science for the PeoplePeople

AgendaAgenda

Global Warming Problem: Global Warming Problem: Facing FactsFacing Facts Potential Impacts of Climate Potential Impacts of Climate Change on DC Metro RegionChange on DC Metro Region Recommended SolutionsRecommended Solutions

No Debate AnymoreNo Debate Anymore

Global Warming largely generated by Global Warming largely generated by human activityhuman activity

Global Warming Threat SeriousGlobal Warming Threat Serious Consensus about COConsensus about CO22

Emissions ReductionEmissions Reduction

DC Metro Area Growth DC Metro Area Growth PredictionsPredictions

1.6 Million New Residents between 2005 and 1.6 Million New Residents between 2005 and 20302030

1.2 Million new jobs1.2 Million new jobs Outer suburbs expected to grow faster(47%)Outer suburbs expected to grow faster(47%) Regional Core growth rate(18 – 20%)Regional Core growth rate(18 – 20%)

Source: Source: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) http://www.mwcog.org/

Projected Growth in Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Under a Business As Usual Scenario

Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review DraftSource: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft

2005 GHG Emissions Estimates 2005 GHG Emissions Estimates for DC Metro Regionfor DC Metro Region

Source: DRAFT September 2007 Preliminary Greenhouse Gas Inventory Projection for the Washington, DC-MD-VA Region

Predicted Effects of Global Predicted Effects of Global Warming in DC Metro Warming in DC Metro

RegionRegion Higher Air and Water TemperaturesHigher Air and Water Temperatures Increased but UnevenIncreased but Uneven

PrecipitationPrecipitation Rising Sea LevelsRising Sea Levels Increase in weather Increase in weather

extremesextremes

Predicted Effects of Predicted Effects of Rising Sea LevelsRising Sea Levels

The impacts of rising sea levels on the Chesapeake Bay and its rivers include:

a) Heightened risk and vulnerability of inundation of wetlands and other low-lying lands by storm surges and coastal flooding;

b) Saltwater contamination of fresh water used for drinking water and irrigation for some smaller communities utilizing water from the Potomac estuary; and

c) Degraded water quality in the Bay and its tributaries, potentially increasing the risk of harmful algal blooms that thrive from runoff, harming fish and crab populations


Rising TemperaturesRising Temperatures

Plants and animals currently in the southeastern U.S may migrate north into the Mid-Atlantic. More frequent and severe forest fires expected, threatening ecosystems and human settlements..Source: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review DraftSource: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft

Rising TemperaturesRising Temperatures

More frequent heat waves. Occurrence of high ozone days. Higher temperatures produce favorable conditions for ozone-producing chemical reactions


Local Effects (DC Local Effects (DC Specific)Specific)

Air pollution's negative health impactsAir pollution's negative health impacts Leading cause of ozone and smog Leading cause of ozone and smog One in ten adults and children suffer from One in ten adults and children suffer from

asthma asthma Typical summer in DC sends 2,400 people with Typical summer in DC sends 2,400 people with

respiratory related diseases to the hospital and respiratory related diseases to the hospital and causes 130,000 asthma attacks causes 130,000 asthma attacks

American Lung Association has rated DC's air American Lung Association has rated DC's air quality as an "F” quality as an "F”

Source: http://www.dcmetrosftp.org/newsletters/NL20071001.html#DWS

Local Effects (DC Local Effects (DC Specific)Specific)

Air pollution's negative health impactsAir pollution's negative health impacts Damage to children's lungs Damage to children's lungs Birth defects affecting heart Birth defects affecting heart Harm to the fetus linked Harm to the fetus linked to low birth weights to low birth weights and cancer later in life and cancer later in life Damage to the Damage to the cardiovascular systemcardiovascular system increasing the risk increasing the risk

of heart attacksof heart attacks


Rising Temperatures Rising Temperatures (Water)(Water)

Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), would be adversely impacted by higher water temperatures.

Higher water temperatures, if coupled with both increased pollutant runoff in the spring (as a result of changes in precipitation patters)

and higher air temperatures during summer months - will likely lead to increased frequency and duration of algal blooms. Lead to degraded water qualitySource: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review DraftSource: National Capital Region Climate Report. July 2008 Review Draft

DC Metro Region CO2 DC Metro Region CO2 Emission Reduction GoalsEmission Reduction Goals

COG’s Climate Change Steering Committee recommends establishing regional greenhouse gas reduction goals for three target years:

2012 to force early action, 2020 a medium-range goal to encourage

expansion of recommended policies and programs, and

2050 a long-range goal to stimulate support for research into technologies and clean fuels

needed to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions.


DC Metro Region CO2 DC Metro Region CO2 Emission Reduction GoalsEmission Reduction Goals

COG’s Climate Change Steering Committee’s Recommended goals are to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by

10% below business as usual by 2012; 20% below 2005 levels by 2020; and 80% below 2005 levels by 2050.


Comparison of Projected Regional Greenhouse Gas Emissions Under BAU and Proposed

Emission Reduction Scenarios: 2005–2050


Solutions Roadmap?Solutions Roadmap?

Potential SolutionsPotential Solutions

No consensus on solutionsNo consensus on solutions Science on solutions clouded by special Science on solutions clouded by special

interests interests

Clean CoalClean Coal

Nuclear EnergyNuclear Energy

Ethanol from CornEthanol from Corn

Taking Action: Mitigating Emissions From Energy

Consumption Improve energy efficiency, Reduce demand for energy, and Develop clean (alternative) energy

sources.

Taking Action: DC Metro Area Residential Sector

Accounts for 33% of total energy demandAccounts for 33% of total energy demand Weatherization, Using of efficient appliances, Installation of programmable thermostats High efficiency lighting.

Taking Action: DC Metro Area Commercial/Industrial SectorCommercial Sector : 46%Commercial Sector : 46%

Industrial Sector: 9%Industrial Sector: 9% High efficiency lighting Using of efficient appliances

Improving the energy performance of commercial buildings can reduce building energy consumption by 10-30 percent.

Taking Action: Expand Local Renewable Energy Sources

Solar Wind Biomass Geothermal

Take Action DC: Congestion Charge?

A congestion charge is a payment required of drivers (or owners of vehicles) to enter a designated area of a city, usually the core business area which has the most traffic. Reduces traffic

Air pollution levels and Carbon emissions Used in a growing number of cities around the

world (e.g., London, Bergen (Norway), Stockholm (Sweden), and Singapore).


Take Action DC: Congestion Charge?

Spike in carbon emissions from 2001 to Spike in carbon emissions from 2001 to 2005 2005

Two times the national rate Two times the national rate Increases commuting Increases commuting

from the suburbs from the suburbs


Congestion Charge (London)Congestion Charge (London)

London experience with its congestion charge shows its significant benefits:

Traffic congestion has been reduced 30%, Carbon dioxide emissions declined by more than 15%, Reductions in nitrogen oxide (8%) and particulates (7%). Revenues accrued went to subsidizing the London Underground

and bus use, Students now ride free, Bus system being expanded, Quickest and cheapest way to increase mass transit capacity. The next stage will include emission-based charging, targeting

SUVs and other vehicles with the highest carbon emissions.


Cost of congestion, and revenues to reduce it

Annual cost of congestion in the DC estimated to be as high as $3.2 billion.

Resources for the Future estimates $60 million in revenue would result from a $4.70 toll for entering the downtown area,

Reduces congestion costs by $94 million per year. Just as London, DC should use congestion charge

revenues to expand bus service and progressively lower their cost to riders.


Environmental, economic andsocial justice are inseparable

Nearly 30,000 DC households are at or below Nearly 30,000 DC households are at or below 50% of poverty level50% of poverty level

11,000 live between 50% and 74%11,000 live between 50% and 74% 10,000 live between 75% and 99%10,000 live between 75% and 99%

DC Households earning under 50% of the DC Households earning under 50% of the Federal Poverty Level pay 49.8% of their Federal Poverty Level pay 49.8% of their annual income for home energy bills.annual income for home energy bills.

Source: Fact Sheet: 17-492, “The Clean and Affordable Energy Act of 2008”

Environmental, economic Environmental, economic and social justice and social justice

Greatest benefit to its working class Greatest benefit to its working class majority majority

Low and middle income Low and middle income

residentsresidents Particularly their children Particularly their children

Other steps to reduce air pollution and carbon emissions

Enforce and improve the idling laws Implement a parking surtax Require businesses to give their workers a

cost-of-travel bonus if they travel by public transportation

Implement a hybrid and then fully electric conversion program for the replacing the District’s taxis.

Encourage bicycle use by expanding bike lanes


ConclusionConclusion

global warming: dc metro region outlook raghu raghavan dc metro science for the people

Documents

dc metro regionsource

dc metro regionhigher

va region

effects of global warming

water temperaturesincreased

drinking water

impacts of rising sea

risk of heart attacks